SHORT TERM: market holds support closes mixed, DOW +27
Overnight the Asian markets were mostly lower following the selloff in the US yesterday. Europe open lower, but closed mixed. At 9:00 the Case-Shiller housing price index reported that prices had declined at a rate of 15.9% over the past twelve months. This is only a slightly lower low than the 15.8% decline reported last month. The acceleration of the decline seems to be easing. But they are still declining, and inventories are still increasing. The market responded to the news by opening slightly lower around SPX 1264. A short term oversold rally followed to SPX 1276 by 10:30. At 10:00 the conference board reported that consumer confidence had increased from 51.9% to 56.9%. A pullback followed after the SPX 1276 high for the day, to a slightly lower low by 3:00 at 1263. At 2:00 the FOMC minutes were released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20080805.htm. Nothing new. Holding support again at the 1261 pivot, the market rallied into the close. For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.15%. Bonds were flat, Crude added $1.15, Gold gained $3.25, and the Euro was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1261 and then 1240, with resistance at 1287 and then 1316. Short term momentum was oversold this morning and rallied back to neutral. The near term indicators continue to decline. Tomorrow durable goods orders at 8:30. This market continues to hold support at the SPX 1261 pivot. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1313
LONG TERM: bear market