tuesday update

SHORT TERM: market holds support closes mixed, DOW +27
Overnight the Asian markets were mostly lower following the selloff in the US yesterday. Europe open lower, but closed mixed. At 9:00 the Case-Shiller housing price index reported that prices had declined at a rate of 15.9% over the past twelve months. This is only a slightly lower low than the 15.8% decline reported last month. The acceleration of the decline seems to be easing. But they are still declining, and inventories are still increasing. The market responded to the news by opening slightly lower around SPX 1264. A short term oversold rally followed to SPX 1276 by 10:30. At 10:00 the conference board reported that consumer confidence had increased from 51.9% to 56.9%. A pullback followed after the SPX 1276 high for the day, to a slightly lower low by 3:00 at 1263. At 2:00 the FOMC minutes were released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20080805.htm. Nothing new. Holding support again at the 1261 pivot, the market rallied into the close. For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.15%. Bonds were flat, Crude added $1.15, Gold gained $3.25, and the Euro was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1261 and then 1240, with resistance at 1287 and then 1316. Short term momentum was oversold this morning and rallied back to neutral. The near term indicators continue to decline. Tomorrow durable goods orders at 8:30. This market continues to hold support at the SPX 1261 pivot. Best to your trading! 
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1313
LONG TERM: bear market

About tony caldaro

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60 Responses to tuesday update

  1. tony says:

    Hi egoldspot,
    The USD is now the most overbought it has been since 2005.
    Medium term the trend is still up, but
    Short term I can count five waves up into yesterdays highs, with a negative RSI divergence developing.
    If it doesn\’t make more upside progress in the next few days, this uptrend could be over. 


  2. egoldspot says:

    Hi Tony, can you update in brief for USD I mean short,medium terms? Thanks in advance


  3. MT says:

    Chrys, Egoldspot, just wait till tony\’s pivot 1261, below it you can expect a drop near the july bottom.


  4. hawk says:

    We\’re bouncing now, so that means down starting tomorrow at the open. I\’m looking forward to the iii/(iii)! 🙂


  5. MCKennedy says:

    Keep in mind that the Nasdaq is ABOVE the 50dMA but below the 200dMA.  Gotta watch for a bounce (or at least resistance) when it gets down to that 50dMA at 2338.


  6. Unknown says:

    15min chart shows RSI and MACD uptrend line is about to break. Will likely break if SPX drops below 1275-1276…so I\’m doubtful that will happen in the last 25 minutes, but I\’m still short nonetheless. No positive divergence on the 15min or 60min chart for RSI and MACD between the 1293 and potential 1285 short-term tops. Downtrend line from 1440–>1313–>1293 held today. Hourly 89SMA also held. And, nobody mentioned Tony\’s 1287 pivot held. CPC still way too bullish, ISE has cooled off to just slightly bullish. Don\’t expect to see 1287 breached.


  7. Jim says:

    Art Cashen of CNBC says that the market has been down 10 out of the last 11 yrs on the thurs before Labor Day.  FYI


  8. hawk says:

    You always have to remember that wave 2\’s can retrace 78%.If we end on a low wave v, I expect a small gap up tomorrow morning. We\’ll see how we end today. Anyway, my 78% 1285-6 point held.


  9. egoldspot says:

    MT, count seems right to me 1284-5 is top, we should gap down tomorrow. for 3 (95-south)


  10. Chrys says:

    MT – this is my count of wave C down
    Wave 1: 1302 – 1261
    Wave 2: 1261 – 1293
      Wave i: 1293 – 1264
      Wave ii: 1264 – 1285 (in progress). Wave ii is an irregular ABC and could go a little higher.


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