wednesday update

SHORT TERM: market rally continues, DOW +186
Overnight the Asian markets were mostly higher, Europe opened higher and closed +1.40%. US index futures were higher overnight, when the SEC reported at 6:30 that the naked short selling ban on Primary’s/GSE’s had been extended until August 12th. At 8:15 ADP reported private sector job growth was up 9,000. Then at 8:45 the FED announced that they were extending the terms their "swaps": http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20080730a.htm. Lots of good news for a market that was already in rally mode. At the open the market gapped up to 1267 and continued to rally to 1280 by 10:30. When gasoline inventories were reported lower, and Crude began to rally, the market pulled back to 1265 by 2:00. After that the rally resumed right into the close as the SPX made new highs for the day. At the close the SPX/DOW were +1.65%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.40%. Bonds were flat, Crude rallied $4.70, Gold lost $9.50, and the Euro was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1261 and then 1240, with resistance at 1287 and then 1316. Short term momentum, after getting extremely overbought this morning, was again overbought at the close. The near term indicators are rising and getting overbought as well. Tomorrow Q2 GDP at 8:30 and weekly jobless claims. Then at 10:00 the Chicago PMI. Just a reminder, non-farm payrolls friday, along with ISM manufacturing and auto sales.
The rally from mondays SPX 1234 low reached 50 points (4.0%) in just two days at todays close. The potential double top at 1290 seems unlikely at this point, and the 1327 pivot appears to be the next likely target. Staying with the Intermediate wave B projection: 1287 – 1240 – 1327. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend bottomed at SPX 1200
LONG TERM: bear market

About tony caldaro

Investor
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69 Responses to wednesday update

  1. Lee says:

    Crazy day…  Cramers a jinx…

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  2. Erik says:

    Amos,Yeah, it\’s been a HELL of a day.I\’m going under the assumption (from the 1200 low), that 1280 will be hard to beat.  It took it to 1290, but failed 1280 at least a few times.  I\’m more interested longer term with SDS… If we fly to 1320 (Tony\’s target) I have a feeling that it\’ll break too many entrenched trend-lines…. it\’ll send a positive signal that we\’re out of Bear mode… and I have a feeling we would be.Therefore, I really thing a double top 1291 is the proper correction… we\’ve already seen it happen.  I don\’t think we\’ll see much more upside.On a positive note, SDS displayed 5 waves up and a 50% pullback.  As for it\’s overall wave count I haven\’t really dug too deeply but a zig-zag would put it in the 65 range… I\’ve loaded for the longer term at 66.Crazily I\’m also long SKF at 120.  This could prove disasterous, but I\’m willing to put something on the line.Glad you had FUN today!

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  3. tony says:

    Hi Joe, thanks for reminding me.
    FSLR is uptrending, but it might be making a top.

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  4. tony says:

    Hi Vc-programmer, the Gold target is still in play.
    It just may take a while longer to get there.

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  5. egoldspot says:

    I got out @1281 with most of risky position, with niece profit. Will jump back once global skew reports negative, gap down and things improve. Today\’s trade seemed compromised with PT

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  6. Frank says:

    picture perfect finish! i\’m outside again,did qqqq close below broken resistance? if it did fast move down,here we come…

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  7. Prakash says:

    Hi Tony,Given the lackluster reaction to FSLR earnings, it seems that the stock has not put in the major 4 bottom. Or has it already confirmed an uptrend by your method?Thanks,Joe

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  8. Prakash says:

    Hi Tony,Given the lackluster reaction to FSLR earnings, it seems that the stock has not put in the major 4 bottom. Or has it already confirmed an uptrend by your method?Thanks,Joe

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  9. egoldspot says:

    How I do define fear? When MM\’s not able to make money either becuase market not moving up nor down or nuetral
    For now all trades seems compromise. MM\’s seems to have settled for less.

    What is fear for public? when all buyers have turned sellers

    How do i define opportunity? when there is a fear

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