wednesday update

SHORT TERM: general market rallies as crude declines, DOW +4
Overnight the Asian markets shifted from lower to higher as the night transited. Europe then opened higher, and closed +0.90%. US index futures traded higher overnight and the market opened higher as durable orders were reported -0.9%, but better than expected. At the open the SPX hit 1318 and continued to rally to 1329, a new high off yesterdays low, by 11:00. At 10:00 the Commerce department reported new home sales declined 2.3%, and have dropped 40.3% in the last year. After reaching 1329, the market went into its usual sideways action as it awaited the comments from the FOMC meeting at 2:00. When the FED released its statement, leaving rates unchanged as expected, the market wildly swung from 1325 to 1336 in the next hour. At 3:00 the market pulled back, and the DOW went negative on the day but recovered. At the close the SPX/DOW were +0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.50%. Bonds lost a few ticks, Crude dropped $2.50, Gold slipped $3.50, and the Euro was higher. Support for the SPX remains at 1316 and then 1287, with resistance at 1327 and then 1344. The market rallied above the 1327 pivot today to 1336, but was unable to hold that pivot going into the close. Short term momentum rose and closed at neutral, while the near term indicators turned higher. Tomorrow the weekly jobless claims and the Q1 GDP revision at 8:30, then existing home sales at 10:00. The downtrend does appear to have bottomed yesterday at the SPX 1304 low. Oversold conditions and positive divergences set up at the lows. Todays rally to 1336 moved into the Minor wave 3 lows at 1331, but the DOW remained relatively weak. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend could have bottomed at SPX 1304 yesterday
LONG TERM: bear market

About tony caldaro

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100 Responses to wednesday update

  1. Forkoholic says:

    so in the pits you just "follow the crowd"?


  2. Lee says:

    Hey Charles ,
    I\’m no big shot by no means just one of the many local guys in Chicago who got lucky by getting a job running orders on the exchange and grinding my way up to trading in the pits.
    I had to borrow money to buy my seat which was a hard sell back in 91\’.
    I\’m going to try to mix it up a bit I was just getting so cooped up trading in an office plus the word was even the dummies were making money lately.


  3. Buba says:

    rich, I think that FDAX will help to ES open higher.


  4. rich says:

    I love a higher open to short after a day like this


  5. Buba says:

    Frank, my average price is 1289. I have potential loss only -4.5 pts. My prev gain was 38 pts. If at night we will have retrace to 1289 I will sell my 1/3 or 1/2.


  6. Forkoholic says:

    I posted that yesterday
    that Kurt Kasun guy didn\’t even red EWI\’s STU – we broke 1974 trendline on the 20th


  7. Frank says:

    Buba, and maye save some for tomorrow… if we end at low end of the day, we might get some capitulating sale tomorrow morning!


  8. Buba says:

    Repleced my 1/3 1291 for 1988. The last 1/3 will add at the end of the day.


  9. Frank says:

    well, with this article, we are suppose go to Dow 5000… 😛

    reversion to the means…
    Currently we have broke the 1974 support line it illustrated in the article… and we probably will close below that by month end.. 2 more trading days… we will see..


  10. Bud says:

    SP500 –  I\’d be happy with a cycle low today, and we begin to reverse upward
    toward 1343-1355.  However, true. 1370+ would suggest the Cycle low, of import
     is in place. 
    Wondering if Stu see\’s the same thing?


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