SHORT TERM: general market rallies as crude declines, DOW +4
Overnight the Asian markets shifted from lower to higher as the night transited. Europe then opened higher, and closed +0.90%. US index futures traded higher overnight and the market opened higher as durable orders were reported -0.9%, but better than expected. At the open the SPX hit 1318 and continued to rally to 1329, a new high off yesterdays low, by 11:00. At 10:00 the Commerce department reported new home sales declined 2.3%, and have dropped 40.3% in the last year. After reaching 1329, the market went into its usual sideways action as it awaited the comments from the FOMC meeting at 2:00. When the FED released its statement, leaving rates unchanged as expected, http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20080625a.htm the market wildly swung from 1325 to 1336 in the next hour. At 3:00 the market pulled back, and the DOW went negative on the day but recovered. At the close the SPX/DOW were +0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.50%. Bonds lost a few ticks, Crude dropped $2.50, Gold slipped $3.50, and the Euro was higher. Support for the SPX remains at 1316 and then 1287, with resistance at 1327 and then 1344. The market rallied above the 1327 pivot today to 1336, but was unable to hold that pivot going into the close. Short term momentum rose and closed at neutral, while the near term indicators turned higher. Tomorrow the weekly jobless claims and the Q1 GDP revision at 8:30, then existing home sales at 10:00. The downtrend does appear to have bottomed yesterday at the SPX 1304 low. Oversold conditions and positive divergences set up at the lows. Todays rally to 1336 moved into the Minor wave 3 lows at 1331, but the DOW remained relatively weak. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend could have bottomed at SPX 1304 yesterday
LONG TERM: bear market