SHORT TERM: stocks close mixed in quiet trading, DOW -8
Overnight the Asian markets were mostly higher, with only Australia’s ASX posting a loss. Europe opened higher but closed mixed. US index futures opened slightly higher after the government reported core PCE at +0.1% and consumer spending +0.2%. At the open the SPX traded to 1399 by 10:00, when the Chicago PMI was reported still in contraction at 49.1%, and the UoM reported consumer sentiment sinking to its lowest level in 28 years. Apparently consumers know something that the government is not reporting, or reporting inaccurately. By 10:30 the SPX rallied to 1404, then pulled back to 1398 by 11:00. After that the market chopped its way higher nearing the close, before traders exited ahead of the weekend. It was a very narrow trading range day. At the close the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.10%. Bonds gained for the first time this week +4 ticks, Crude rose 95 cents, Gold added $9.50, and the Euro was higher. Support for the SPX remains at 1383 and then 1364, with resistance at 1410 and then 1438. Short term momentum remained overbought, and the near term indicators are rising into that level as well. For the month of May the SPX gained about 1%, the NDX/NAZ were up over 4%, but the DOW lost ground down over 1%. The March uptrend is clearly losing upside momentum. Still expecting a small pop in the indices, to a near term overbought condition, before they turn lower in a third wave. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend should have topped at SPX 1440
LONG TERM: bear market