SHORT TERM: April durable goods orders -0.5%, market rallies late, DOW +48
Overnight the Asian markets were mixed, but Europe closed +0.60%. US index futures edged up before the open after the durable goods report at 8:30, and the market opened slightly higher at SPX 1390. A pullback followed as Crude rallied, and the SPX hit 1378 by 12:00. After that the market worked its way higher into the close, closing at the high for the day SPX 1391. At the close the SPX/DOW were +0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.20%. Bonds closed over 3/4 points lower, Crude gained $1.95, Gold lost $5.50, and the Euro was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1383 and then 1364, with resistance at 1410 and then 1438. Short term momentum was rising into the close and started to get overbought. The near term indicators are rising as well. Tomorrow a Q1 GDP revision and unemployment claims, both at 8:30. Then a speech from FED chairman Bernanke from Basil Switzerland at 2:30. Today FED governor Mishkin, and close friend to Bernanke, turned in his resignation after serving only 18 months of an 8 year term. His last public statement: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/mishkin20080515a.htm. The Housing sector (HGX) has been in a confirmed downtrend for a few weeks. The two sectors that have lead every downtrend in this bear market; the Financials (XLF) and the Banks (KBE), have been declining steadily since early May. Will be watching these two sectors closely in the coming days. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: probabilities increasing for a new downtrend
LONG TERM: bear market