wednesday update

SHORT TERM: April durable goods orders -0.5%, market rallies late, DOW +48
Overnight the Asian markets were mixed, but Europe closed +0.60%. US index futures edged up before the open after the durable goods report at 8:30, and the market opened slightly higher at SPX 1390. A pullback followed as Crude rallied, and the SPX hit 1378 by 12:00. After that the market worked its way higher into the close, closing at the high for the day SPX 1391. At the close the SPX/DOW were +0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.20%. Bonds closed over 3/4 points lower, Crude gained $1.95, Gold lost $5.50, and the Euro was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1383 and then 1364, with resistance at 1410 and then 1438. Short term momentum was rising into the close and started to get overbought. The near term indicators are rising as well. Tomorrow a Q1 GDP revision and unemployment claims, both at 8:30. Then a speech from FED chairman Bernanke from Basil Switzerland at 2:30. Today FED governor Mishkin, and close friend to Bernanke, turned in his resignation after serving only 18 months of an 8 year term. His last public statement: The Housing sector (HGX) has been in a confirmed downtrend for a few weeks. The two sectors that have lead every downtrend in this bear market; the Financials (XLF) and the Banks (KBE), have been declining steadily since early May. Will be watching these two sectors closely in the coming days. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: probabilities increasing for a new downtrend
LONG TERM: bear market

About tony caldaro

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62 Responses to wednesday update

  1. Buba says:

    VIX retraced 62%, went short at 1405 too, stop on breakeven.


  2. Unknown says:

    Jesus invented Fibs?  That sounds like one smart fella.  I need to read up this guy.


  3. tony says:

    Hi Booker, been expecting the techs to rally like they did in November.
    But the divergences will take their toll just as before.
    Hi HD … correct!


  4. Numerologist says:

    >Leonardo of Pisa (Fibonacci) came around in the 12th century
    It may not be obvious to some, but clearly, the Fibonacci numbers existed well before Leonardo of Pisa discovered them. It\’s not like they popped up into existence in the 12th century. So, while we are thankful to Leonardo of Pisa for discovery, we should also be thankful to Jesus for creating them in the first place.
    God bless Amos


  5. H says:

    Thanks Tony,   The alternate count is the enitre move as just wave A?  Wave 3 getting through 1364 would probably confirm your bearish count. 


  6. booker says:

    Tony, what happens IF the XLF holds the 24.5 area, and starts to move up? With techs and midcaps already showing strength, this rally would gain lots of momentum from sideline cash and short covering.


  7. Lee says:

    Short for first time today back thru 1405.00 I don\’t have any feeling I might be right….


  8. tony says:

    Hi HD, I have that count (abc-x-abc) posted on the SPX hourly.
    The A is the end of the fist abc, the B is the x, and the C (major b) is the next abc.
    Hi Peter, I follow NM also, offboard. They do not have the margins of DRYS.
    Plus, while the stock market was selling off, so too were shipping rates.
    It\’s not surprising they had a stressful quarter. 


  9. Unknown says:

    When you plunge 6% in a week and retrace part of that, it\’s called backtesting.
    Amos…is….correct….(that\’s hard to type)


  10. booker says:

    Amos, I can\’t find any crystal ball in my old catalogs, so no predictions here. But maybe the backtesting has already been done — backtesting the broken downtrend line from the Oct highs — and going higher from here. Or maybe it\’s just window dressing. Or maybe we\’re entering the dreaded THREE. But I\’ll just keep that 1340 circled on my SPX chart — and put your name next to it!


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