tuesday update

SHORT TERM: Crude oil drops – market rallies, DOW +69
Overnight the Asian markets were mostly higher, with only India’s BSE displaying a loss. Europe traded higher most of the day and ended mixed. US index futures traded flat for most of the two days and edged higher after FED governor Kroszner’s speech: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/kroszner20080522a.htm. But at 9:00 Case-Shiller reported that housing prices dropped further, now at a 14.4% rate just in the last twelve months. The market opened slighty higher, nevertheless, and rallied to SPX 1384 by 10:00. Two other reports were released around that time. First the Conference board reported that consumer confidence high a 16 year low in May. Then the Commerce Department reported that new homes sales increased by 3.3% in April, the first rise in six months. While April sales were down 42% in the past twelve months. The market pulled back to a slightly lower low than friday at SPX 1373 by 12:00. While Crude oil continued to decline on the day, and with the market sitting at its most oversold short/near term levels since March. The market started to rally. Nearing 3:00 the SPX broke through the early morning high at 1384 and edged higher into the close. At the close the SPX/DOW were +0.60%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.70%. Bonds dropped about 3/4 points, Crude lost $3.60, Gold slid $20.00, and the Euro was lower. Support for the SPX now notches up to 1383 and then 1364, with resistance at 1410 and then 1438. Short term momentum was oversold this morning but rose past neutral heading into the close. The near term indicators were the most oversold they had been since March, and moved higher as well. Not totally certain that this short term decline ended at SPX 1373 today, as it appears in between pivots. If it hasn’t 1364 should be tested next, if it has 1410 is overhead resistance. Tomorrow at 10:00 April durable goods orders. Best to your trading! 
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend should have topped at SPX 1440
LONG TERM: bear market

About tony caldaro

Investor
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77 Responses to tuesday update

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  3. tony says:

    Please everyone let\’s keep the comments professional and cordial.

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  4. hawk says:

    Sorry Amos, …the angry Korean here. If indeed it was a typo, I\’ll accept it as that and move on to more important matters like the stock market.
     
    It looks like the market went up to 1391. 1392 is a Fibonacci 28.8% retrace of the entire decline from 1440 to 1373. Tomorrow the bulls may want to take it to 50% which is 1409. Good luck!

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  5. Prakash says:

    wow… the posters here are hilarious…. moral of the story: fix the friggin typos!!Elam, finally you post something of use than just names calling… new lows in BKX, yet 1400 in SPX is quite telling… we could be range-bound for rest of the year, yet lots of stocks could be hitting 52wk highs on a daily basis….

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  6. booker says:

    Elam, also look at MID — Midcaps doing well in here. NDX reclaimed 2000.  So it is not true that only energy names are holding the market up, as some have said.

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  7. Prakash says:

    wow… the posters here are hilarious…. moral of the story: fix the friggin typos!!Elam, finally you post something of use than just names calling… new lows in BKX, yet 1400 in SPX is quite telling… we could be range-bound for rest of the year, yet lots of stocks could be hitting 52wk highs on a daily basis….

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