tuesday update

SHORT TERM: another pre-FOMC trading day, DOW -40
Overnight the Asian markets were all higher, but Europe closed -0.30%. At 9:00 Case-Shiller reported that housing prices continued to decline in all 20 cities monitored for the past six months. And, within the last 12 months have dropped a record 12.7% nationwide. RealtyTrac had reported last night that foreclosures continue to rise, and have doubled in the last year. Nevertheless, the market opened flat, and rose to 1397 in the opening minutes. The high for the day. At 10:00 the Conference board announced their consumer confidence index has dropped to its lowest level in 5 years. By 11:00 the market hit 1387, near the 1383 OEW pivot and at the 55-hma making the low for the day. Another day with a narrow trading range ahead of the FOMC meeting. At the close the SPX/DOW were -0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.30%, similar to yesterday. Bonds gained 6 ticks, Crude dropped $3.50, Gold lost $23.50, and the Euro was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1383 and then 1364, with resistance at 1410 and then 1438. Short term momentum is still displaying negative RSI divergences, as are the near term indicators. Tomorrow before the market opens the first guesstimate at Q1 GDP will be announced, and the monthly ADP employment report. Then at 2:15 the FED will announce its determination. It certainly will not be a quiet day tomorrow. The market slipped through that 15min diagonal posted on friday, then rallied back to test the trendline. When the SPX breaks below today’s low at 1387 it should start heading lower. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high thus far 1402 with negative divergences
LONG TERM: bear market

About tony caldaro

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83 Responses to tuesday update

  1. tony says:

    Hi Lee … even after todays rally HGX is still trailing.


  2. tony says:

    Hi Serg … yes, banks charge people for just keeping their money there,
    which they then loan out at 10% interest. Ponzi scheme.
    Hi Stu … thanks for your update.
    Hi Amos … nice analysis


  3. tony says:

    Seventy-six comments. I need to start a forum for you guys.
    Will respond shortly. Interesting day, yes?


  4. Piazzi says:

    don\’t congrat me yet, It\’s not over till it is over, and that — who knows?


  5. H says:

    Congrats Piazzi, No I held today and added puts on the Q’s.  just trying to learn wave theory.  $TRAN made another new reaction high today.  Didn’t understand wave B’s to be so strong.  


  6. Piazzi says:

    Repeat after me:
    The FED does not like Deflation. Deflation is bad for the rich. That\’s all there is to it, the rest is smoke and mirror


  7. Lee says:

    new low in futures
    1383.50  like the pivot…138500 last


  8. Lee says:

    I can see the 5 waves amos on 1 min..U trade futures amos?


  9. Lee says:

    new low in futures by a tick
    I dont think SPX made a new low……… now its up ticking into close lets see…furures catching a bid all the no names here selling the low…lol   No big bounce here at the close SPX still up ticking
    I have 1385.47 Futures just churning….


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