SHORT TERM: another pre-FOMC trading day, DOW -40
Overnight the Asian markets were all higher, but Europe closed -0.30%. At 9:00 Case-Shiller reported that housing prices continued to decline in all 20 cities monitored for the past six months. And, within the last 12 months have dropped a record 12.7% nationwide. RealtyTrac had reported last night that foreclosures continue to rise, and have doubled in the last year. Nevertheless, the market opened flat, and rose to 1397 in the opening minutes. The high for the day. At 10:00 the Conference board announced their consumer confidence index has dropped to its lowest level in 5 years. By 11:00 the market hit 1387, near the 1383 OEW pivot and at the 55-hma making the low for the day. Another day with a narrow trading range ahead of the FOMC meeting. At the close the SPX/DOW were -0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.30%, similar to yesterday. Bonds gained 6 ticks, Crude dropped $3.50, Gold lost $23.50, and the Euro was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1383 and then 1364, with resistance at 1410 and then 1438. Short term momentum is still displaying negative RSI divergences, as are the near term indicators. Tomorrow before the market opens the first guesstimate at Q1 GDP will be announced, and the monthly ADP employment report. Then at 2:15 the FED will announce its determination. It certainly will not be a quiet day tomorrow. The market slipped through that 15min diagonal posted on friday, then rallied back to test the trendline. When the SPX breaks below today’s low at 1387 it should start heading lower. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high thus far 1402 with negative divergences
LONG TERM: bear market