friday update

SHORT TERM: market shrugs off more negative news and closes mixed, DOW +43
Overnight the Asian markets were mixed, and Europe closed out the week with a 0.90% gain. At the open the SPX rallied to 1396, closed yesterday at 1389. Then pulled back to 1387 by 10:00, when UoM reported consumer sentiment had dropped again in April to its lowest level in 26 years, (1982). Market steadied on the news, but rumors circulated that an American ship had fired on an Iranian ship in the Gulf. The market pulled back futher on that news, as Crude rallied. By 11:30 the details were disclosed that an Amercian merchant ship had fired warnings shots at two Iranian boats. The market bottomed at 1380, and then rallied into the close, ekeing out a slightly higher uptrend high at 1399. At the close the SPX/DOW were +0.50%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.35%. Bonds lost 10 ticks, Crude gained $2.35 to a new high, Gold lost $2.50, and the Euro was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1384 and then 1363, with resistance at 1410 and then 1438. Short term momentum is still displaying a negative RSI divergence on the hourly/daily charts, and the weekly charts are getting overbought. The near term indicators remain with divergences as well. Below is an interesting SPX 15min line chart from the late March low. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend ekes out a new high at SPX 1399
LONG TERM: bear market
SPX15min  

About tony caldaro

Investor
This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

39 Responses to friday update

  1. tony says:

    Hi Frank … under the Greenspan regime, after lowering rates he always waited over one year before raising rates.
    Bernanke is following his mentor. Wouldn\’t expect any sort of rate increase until 2009.
     
    Hi Amos … good point about the rising wedge, which is nearing 1385 now.
     
    Hi! … also good point about the Euro last week which displayed the same pattern.

    Like

  2. tony says:

    Hi Andrew … wouldn\’t dismiss your analysis: 100 days-100 days.
    Historically, I\’ve never really looked at time relationships.
     
    Hi Jason … one of the purposes of the blog is to get everyone to think of the probabilities.
    Stu certainly has that idea, and posts regularly.
    From time to time I look at the 15min chart. That wedge started at 1313.
     
    Hi HD … nothing has changed.

    Like

  3. Piazzi says:

    Serg,
     
    first you started double posts
     
    now you are doing triple posts,
     
    can\’t wait to see quadruples

    Like

  4. Forkoholic says:

    Presidential year 4 April pattern (green) was close to actual S&Phttp://paintfantasy.com/images/pres4April.jpg
    May pattern suggest rally to about 1-2nd week of Mayhttp://www.safehaven.com/images/burk/10085_k.png

    Like

  5. Forkoholic says:

    Presidential year 4 April pattern (green) was close to actual S&Phttp://paintfantasy.com/images/pres4April.jpg
    May pattern suggest rally to about 1-2nd week of Mayhttp://www.safehaven.com/images/burk/10085_k.png

    Like

  6. Forkoholic says:

    Presidential year 4 April pattern (green) was close to actual S&Phttp://paintfantasy.com/images/pres4April.jpg
    May pattern suggest rally to about 1-2nd week of Mayhttp://www.safehaven.com/images/burk/10085_k.png

    Like

  7. Forkoholic says:

    Frank,
    FED will not raise interest rates for a foreseeable future. Lower USD is actualy Fed\’s policy.
    They hope to jump-start the economy with exports + manufaturing moving back to USA because of a lower USD.
    See BMWs of the worls coming to USA and building plants here to produce cars etc.
    For many economic cisises before USA banks were screwed by Asia, Russia etc. This time The Wall Street engeneered the Subrime crisis and tried to pass it to the world as a revege for crisises before. But the got so greedy they left holding that toxic waste they tried to dump to the world. Trick did not work
    Instead we dig hole for ourselves
     

    Like

  8. Forkoholic says:

    Frank,
    FED will not raise interest rates for a foreseeable future. Lower USD is actualy Fed\’s policy.
    They hope to jump-start the economy with exports + manufaturing moving back to USA because of a lower USD.
    See BMWs of the worls coming to USA and building plants here to produce cars etc.
    For many economic cisises before USA banks were screwed by Asia, Russia etc. This time The Wall Street engeneered the Subrime crisis and tried to pass it to the world as a revege for crisises before. But the got so greedy they left holding that toxic waste they tried to dump to the world. Trick did not work
    Instead we dig hole for ourselves
     

    Like

Comments are closed.