thursday update

SHORT TERM: another choppy session another lower close, DOW -120
Overnight the Asian markets were all lower except Hong Kong. Europe came in +1.50%, and closed +1.20%. US index futures were lower overnight, but rallied this morning after the final revision for 4Q GDP was announced at +0.6%. Also the weekly unemployment figures were a bit better than expected, and there was a speech by FED governor Kroszner regarding protecting and sustaining home ownership: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/kroszner20080327a.htm. At the open stocks were modestly higher, but quickly retreated to 1330 by 10:30. After getting a bit oversold and close to the 1327 EW pivot, the market rallied without any leadership. It looked all technical. By 1:00 the SPX made its high for the day at 1346, then rolled over to 1332 by 2:00. The choppiness continued as the SPX rallied to 1342 by 3:00, and then made new lows for the day heading into the close. At the close the SPX/DOW were -1.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were -2.0%. Bonds lost about 1/4 point, Crude was up $1.25, Gold was off 50 cents, and the Euro was lower. Support for the SPX now notches down to 1316 and then 1287, with resistance at 1327 and then 1344. Short term momentum was oversold at the close. Tomorrow before the open the February core PCE price index will be reported, a key inflation indicator.
The near term indicators were overbought at monday’s high of 1360. Since then, they have been easing back as the market has worked its way lower one EW pivot at a time. It may take a test of the pivot at 1316 to get these indicators oversold again. Thus far from the 1257 low, the market appears to have done an abc up, and a choppy abc on the way down as well. It all looks correctional. If SPX 1316 holds, expecting the rally to resume to 1383. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: rally looking for support
LONG TERM: bear market
       

About tony caldaro

Investor
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