wednesday update

SHORT TERM: stocks end mixed after early rally, DOW +9
Overnight the Asian markets were all higher following the rally in the US yesterday. Europe, however, came in about 0.45% lower, but ended the day mixed. At 8:30 January durable goods orders recorded a sharp 5.3% drop, after a spurt higher in December. At the open stocks headed lower hitting SPX 1372 within the opening minutes. The market then started to rally as the two FED speeches mentioned yesterday were released around 10:00.
Mishkin: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/mishkin20080227a.htm By noon the SPX hit 1388, its high for the day, then pulled back to 1375, before heading to 1380 at the close. A choppy and somewhat volatile day. At the close the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.40%. Bonds gained about 5 ticks, Crude dropped $1.10, Gold was $10.00 higher, and the Euro made new highs. Support for the SPX remains at 1364 and then 1344, with resistance at 1383 and then 1410. Short term momentum negatively diverged slightly at the highs and then headed to neutral at the close. Our near term indicators are beginning to get overbought. Tomorrow, before the open, the revised Q4 GDP will be announced. Then at 10:00 Bernanke appears before the Senate. Still looking for the market to take another shot at 1396 before this uptrends ends. Today’s 1388 came quite close. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend from 1270 continues
LONG TERM: bear market
 
  

About tony caldaro

Investor
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2 Responses to wednesday update

  1. tony says:

    Hi … inclined to agree.
    Watching SPX 1360 as a potential breakdown point.
    The DOW did a much better job of forming a double top than the SPX.

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  2. MCKennedy says:

    Hi Tony,
     
    The reason I am thinking that the market will have some difficulty going much higher from here is that the 20 month MA for the Dow sits at 12736.  The Dow closed below the 20mMA (which is also the monthly mid BB) at the end of Jan (although it was close).  Therefore, it seems that the market should head south to the lower BB (currently at 11,191), not break & close to the upside from here.   Although the Dow breached 12736 intraday today, it still closed below that critical level.  So it seems that while it could reach the 1396 level on an intraday basis this week, it seems doubtful that it could close above that level.  Thoughts?

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