the BIG picture

There is some talk, as there has been throughout this decade, that the bull market from 1932 has ended, and an unwinding of the entire financial system will lead to a depression. Just as it did when the supercycle ended in 1929. That potential, based on OEW analysis, has come and gone with the 2000 peak. Quoting someone I know better than anyone else: As Tony Caldaro, the brilliant technician who actually DID call the 1987 crash months before it happened in Barron’s, once pointed out to us as we figuratively sat at his feet; "History does indeed repeat itself, but never in exactly the same way".18 April 1998
 
With assistance from Dean W. of Australia, I’ve put together a chart displaying the DOW from the year 1900 to present. This is actual data. The chart displays the 1929 supercycle peak and the 1932 supercycle low, labeled as "cV and scLOW". Notice that when this wave completed, the standard RSI-14 dropped straight down from an extreme overbought condition to an extreme oversold. This is the typical action of a downtrending cycle wave. Five cycle waves complete a supercycle: three up and two down. Since 1932 a similar oversold condition occurred only three times. During the 1937-1942 cycle low, the 1973-1982 cycle low, and then the 2000-2002 cycle low. Based upon OEW wave analysis the entire bull market from 1932 – 2000 ended another supercycle, and the bear market from 2000 – 2002 corrected it. From the October 2002 low, the market moved to new highs with the beginning of a new supercycle, recently completing Cycle wave I. With the current bear market underway, Cycle wave II is now in progress. Supporting this scenario is the following facts:
Since 1921 there have only been four bull markets of five years or longer.
1921-1929 fifth wave blowoff
1932-1937 cycle wave 1 of new supercycle
1987-2000 fifth wave blowoff
2002- 2007 cycle wave 1 of new supercycle.
Every one of these bull market was followed by a bear market of three years or five.
1929 – three years
1937 – five years
2000 – three years (a few months short)
2007 –
Notice both cycle wave V blowoffs were the longest bull markets in history. And the first cycle wave of the new supercycle bull market were both second and of a five year duration. When I started this blog in 2005 the very first posts were regarding the BIG picture wave count. These posts are still there for your review, as is every post made since that time. Nothing has changed, the market has done what it normally does, and we are now in a Cycle wave II bear market. Posting this chart in the photo section for future reference.
dow1929    
 

About tony caldaro

Investor
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18 Responses to the BIG picture

  1. tony says:

    Hi Dollar … if you are referring to the market.
    See an abc into the lows thus far.
     
    Hi Lee … yes Manning 2.0 against Brady again.
    Like the Giants, but 18-0 deserves 19-0. Go Pats!
     
    Hi GKM … yes agree!
    The permabears fought the entire bull market all the way up.
    Now they are back in packs with their doom and gloom scenarios.
    Time will tell. Waiting for this first leg down to run its course.
     
    cheers!
     

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  2. Kurt says:

    Hi Tony.  I can certainly see what you are saying in terms of the count that we are in a cycle wave II and we should all hope that is the case.  Where I struggle is with the chart on the S&P. Since we only achieved the former highs on the S&P, I have to conclude that there is at least a reasonable probability we are in corrective wave C of that particular measure of the market. In the very least it will be a deep retracement (below 10600 on the Dow and 1077 on the S&P), so we don\’t really have to worry too much about the cycle count unil we hit that juncture.

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  3. Lee says:

    Incredible work Tony.  And to top it off the Giants are in the Super Bowl??Amazing times we are living in folks.  GO GIANTS !!

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