friday update

SHORT TERM: market ends mixed after big gap up opening, DOW +60
The market gapped up this morning on overnight buying due to accommodative comments by FED chairman Bernanke. Within the first few minutes the SPX rallied 19 points to 1489. But that was the high as techs came under pressure for most of the day. By 3:00 the SPX traded down to 1471, then bounced higher into the close. Financials were strong today, as all the leaders ended positive. At the close the SPX/DOW gained 0.60%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.45%. Bonds closed down 9 ticks, Crude was $2.26 lower, Gold dropped $12.00, and the Euro was lower as well. Support for the SPX remains at 1462 and then 1438, with resistance at 1484 and then 1506. Short term momentum, which was overbought this morning, is now at neutral and heading lower. An interesting three days for the markets. Sharp broad based rally on wednesday, good tech rally but weak financials on thursday, then strong financials but weak techs on friday. And now two days in a row without a 200+ point swing up or down. Certainly the market has responded positively to the comments by the FED, and the activities by the Treasury department. Maybe they finally figured out what the market has been projecting. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: correction may have bottomed, awaiting an uptrend confirmation
LONG TERM: bullish

About tony caldaro

Investor
This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

5 Responses to friday update

  1. tony says:

    Hi Marc,
     
    Unlikely for two reasons.
    First the August low did not get sufficiently oversold.
    Secondly the recent correction retraced nearly entire rally on a print basis.
    It\’s a tricky count right now, so many counts are possible.
    Still a bull market nevertheless.
    tony

    Like

  2. marc says:

    Hey Tony hope all is well.  Just wondering if the 1364 low in August could have been wave 4 and if not why?
     
    Also the impression I am getting is that we are in an A-B-C corrective move up here off of 1406 and I as wondering where you see that going before we head back down to the lows to test 1370.  1520 looks to me like an area that would begin the next downtrend but I am wondering your thoughts?

    Like

  3. tony says:

    Hi Peter,
     
    Appreciate your input.
    THX

    Like

  4. peter says:

    Hi Tony,
     This is a great interview with experienced banker giving great historical perspective.

    FDIC chrman from1981-85, Bill Isaac doubts repeat of 80"s OR 90\’s debacle; loan loss provisions are "minor" when u compare Bank\’s capital reserves and earnings.. he thinks overall banks are better mgd now and more strongly capitalized and diversified then 80\’s and 90\’s banking crises.:there will be more writeoffs in 4th qtr….2008 writeoffs unpredictable depending on recession or not but ok in either case..Stats: one month ago we had 61 problem banks with less than 1% of industry assets, vs 1991, 1500 banks and 20% of bank industry assets
    Once at http://www.bloomberg.com …. paste in this link
    javascript:bringupPlayer(\’vid=vxv3oYU3zvIo\’)
    Investment grade Closed end preferred stock funds with lots of financials leapt this week….still paying great yields
    Alsothis manager of $165 billion LPL thinks subprime worries are overblown..paste in:
    javascript:bringupPlayer(\’vid=v6qvbVuSWBYQ\’)
    Andy Bove bank analyst  for Punk Ziegel,bearish on Citigroup and other banks when most analyst were bullish….has now turned bullish..criticizing mass pessimism
     javascript:bringupPlayer(\’vid=vwGIcY_y1qRo\’)
    One analyst thinks Paulson\’s mortgage efforts are too late, but seem Paulson has an easy sell with the high costs to banks of foreclosures. If I owned subprime paper I would be happy even if the homeowner paid me 4% for the next 2 or 3 years..seems 4.5% to 5.75% is an easy sell!! The overall world environment still has deflationary forces from Asian labor and Treasury rates are very low. Interview at:
    javascript:bringupPlayer(\’vid=vSZn84rvBkQA\’)

    Like

  5. peter says:

    Hi Tony,
     This is a great interview with experienced banker giving great historical perspective.

    FDIC chrman from1981-85, Bill Isaac doubts repeat of 80"s OR 90\’s debacle; loan loss provisions are "minor" when u compare Bank\’s capital reserves and earnings.. he thinks overall banks are better mgd now and more strongly capitalized and diversified then 80\’s and 90\’s banking crises.:there will be more writeoffs in 4th qtr….2008 writeoffs unpredictable depending on recession or not but ok in either case..Stats: one month ago we had 61 problem banks with less than 1% of industry assets, vs 1991, 1500 banks and 20% of bank industry assets
    Once at http://www.bloomberg.com …. paste in this link
    javascript:bringupPlayer(\’vid=vxv3oYU3zvIo\’)
    Investment grade Closed end preferred stock funds with lots of financials leapt this week….still paying great yields
    Alsothis manager of $165 billion LPL thinks subprime worries are overblown..paste in:
    javascript:bringupPlayer(\’vid=v6qvbVuSWBYQ\’)
    Andy Bove bank analyst  for Punk Ziegel,bearish on Citigroup and other banks when most analyst were bullish….has now turned bullish..criticizing mass pessimism
     javascript:bringupPlayer(\’vid=vwGIcY_y1qRo\’)
    One analyst thinks Paulson\’s mortgage efforts are too late, but seem Paulson has an easy sell with the high costs to banks of foreclosures. If I owned subprime paper I would be happy even if the homeowner paid me 4% for the next 2 or 3 years..seems 4.5% to 5.75% is an easy sell!! The overall world environment still has deflationary forces from Asian labor and Treasury rates are very low. Interview at:
    javascript:bringupPlayer(\’vid=vSZn84rvBkQA\’)

    Like

Comments are closed.