thursday morning

SHORT TERM: market opens lower after yesterday’s strong showing, DOW -40
Overnight the Asian markets were all higher following the rally in the US. Europe came in about 0.25% higher as well. Stocks opened slightly lower however, after the revised Q3 GDP was reported in line with expectations: +4.9%. And, at 10:00 new home sales were reported to have risen in October by 1.7%. Recession? The market is lower but basically staying in the SPX 1460’s range so far. Bonds are up over 1 point, Crude is up $1.95 on a reported fire, Gold is off $2.50, and the Euro is lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1462 and then 1438, with resistance at 1484. Short term momentum has eased back a bit from the overbought levels reached yesterday. There are two FED speeches later today, but after the market closes. After yesterday’s strong showing the market seems to be consolidating. Techs remains strong, but the financials are receiving some selling pressure. Continue to observe XLF/GS/AAPL/GOOG for signs of short term movement. We continue to monitor the 21-day moving average for signs of a breakout or failure. For the entire month of November this market has been contained below this moving average. A substantial breakout above should usher in a year end rally. If the market is turned away here, the downtrend should resume. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: correction
LONG TERM: bullish

About tony caldaro

Investor
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3 Responses to thursday morning

  1. tony says:

    Hi Marc … do not think we\’re going to new highs.
     
    Hi! … That sentence was phrased incorrectly.
    Housing is by all means in a recession of paramount dimensions.
    Sales were up due to price cuts, and there is 11 months of inventory still to be sold.
    May not see a recovery until late 2008.
    The economy, however, is not, nor is it going into a recession.  

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  2. Paige says:

    Tony, you obviously read only the headline on new home sales. Dig a little deeper and you will see it really was a poor market for home sales. I would expect a little more from you even if you don\’t think a recession is in the cards.

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  3. marc says:

    Tony based on your analysis here is it safe to say though we may rally here we are not going to new highs until a major wave 4 is in place.  Is that a  correct assumption? 

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