thursday update

SHORT TERM: rally quiets down after a morning surge
Stocks opened higher today, rallying to new bull market highs for most of the indices within the first half hour. The SPX hit 1536, exceeding the long term EW pivot of 1530 by several points. This is nothing special, but since the next pivot is only at 1553, it’s important at this stage of the uptrend. Today’s morning pop in most of the indices, suggests the uptrend is continuing as defined in the earlier post. On that push higher short term momentum was quite overbought. Then until around 1:30 the SPX pulled back to 1528, found some support and rallied into the close. At the close the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ rallied 0.50%. Techs continue to lead. Bonds closed down a few ticks, Crude reversed gaining 70 cents, Gold rallied $8.00, and the Euro was higher. Short term momentum has now eased back to neutral. Tomorrow, before the open, the employment report will be released, plus Core PSE, and then the ISM report at 10:00. Best to your evening!
MEDIUM TERM: cautious, and targeting SPX 1553
LONG TERM: bullish.   

About tony caldaro

Investor
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7 Responses to thursday update

  1. tony says:

    Hi Steve,
     
    Bonds, by far, have been my worse market.
    From what I understand, there has been a huge position being unwound for the past couple of weeks:
    Long US short Euro (bonds).
    If I know it all the traders know it, and Bonds have been declining.
    At some point, there should be a major rebound. Maybe soon

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  2. tony says:

    Hi!
     
    No I have not looked at Peru any time in the recent past.
    The only index I have examined in South America is Brazil.
    Will see if the data is available.

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  3. tony says:

    Hi Frank,
     
    I have been following the COT data on this other site.
    The link is posted on the left side of the page:
    http://www.marketswing.com/L3charts/All_COT.htm
    It displays something quite the contrary.
    Commercials have been major long and adding … while Speculators are at record shorts and still shorting.
     

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  4. Frank says:

    Strange market, 10 year note $TNX is going up and market is going up like crazy too!  I guess investor and trader like higher interest rate?!  I wonder at what point would people start noticing, maybe until it break 5%?
     
    Frank

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  5. Steve Osborne says:

    Tony,
    I would like to know your opinion about bonds.  They seem poised for a rebound as both the Fed and the markets should soon be in agreement that growth and inflation have been overestimated.  In this scenario, I also see stocks going up further and oil going down. Before the memorial day weekend, the oil market seemed to have already discounted the worst case scenario regarding oil inventories. 
     
    Steve

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  6. Unknown says:

    For what it\’s worth the stock market here in Lima, Peru yesterday lost 7.59% and at one time was down 10% and trading was halted for 30 minutes.  The Peruvian market, as you probably know, has been the high flyer here in South America – up 46% for the year but down 25% from it\’s high.  The reason for yesterdays minicrash is the idea that China my not buy as many metals as has been the case.  Of course the newspapers quoted analists as calling this a "buying opportunity".  Have u looked at this market from Elliott Wave perspective?

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  7. Frank says:

    Hi Tony,
     
    http://www.buythebottom.com/cot_charts/spx.html
     
    The \’COT\’ clitch still have me wondering.  Especially the S&P500 COT chart.  The Commercial has been net short all along (since the rise from last year July/Aug) until past few weeks when they finally turn net long.  And it seems they are buying on the dips.  But if they are the "smart money", why are they only start to be net long when they market has risen so much?  Are they expecting this bull run to turn very parabolic and will keep going for a long time?  And at the same time it seems they are still net short of DOW and on last dip they sold more shorts, weird….
     
    Frank

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