friday morning

SHORT TERM: market opens mixed and heads higher
Overnight the Asian markets were mostly higher, with only China’s SSEC declining after making successive new highs all week. Europe came in slightly higher, and the Feb PCE was reported in line with expectations at +0.3%. Stocks opened mixed and started to edge higher. At 10:00 the Chicago PMI posted the largest one month gain in its 39 year history, rising from 47.9% to 61.7%. This could this mean that the auto industry is beginning to turn around. At 12:30 FED chair Bernanke gives a speech at the FED’s Community Affairs unit in DC. Thus far, the SPX continued its rally from yesterdays 1413 lows to hit 1429 this morning, just a couple points shy of the 1431 EW pivot. It will need to crack through this overhead resistance now for the market to move higher. Bonds are over 1/4 point lower and close to support, Crude is 10 cents lower, Gold is 60 cents higher, and the Euro is down. Short term momentum has yet to get overbought, so I’m expecting this rally to continue. End of week, End of month, and End of quarter window dressing appears to be the order of the day, as volume looks to be on the light side. The stock market continues to look and act positive. Expecting this rally from the SPX 1364 lows to turn into a bonafide new uptrend. Overhead resistance is now at 1431 and the recent highs of 1439. Once the market can penetrate both of those levels, SPX 1530 will be the upside target. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: bullish
LONG TERM: bullish.      

About tony caldaro

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6 Responses to friday morning

  1. tony says:

    Hi Peter,
    I tend to stay away from stocks whose sectors are in bear markets.
    But this is only my approach.
    Crude has had a nice run up from the lows, and very possibly could stay in a trading range for quite a while.
    Stocks are acting well, but the market still seems a bit indecisive.
    Agree, as posted over the weekend, some stocks do look good and should be bought on dips.


  2. peter says:

     Re OIL: it seems the guideline of \’correction to within the span of previous 4th wave of one lesser degree\’ has already been met; & we don\’t need oil at the bottom of the 4th wave span at $40 for an Elliott bottom. Correct?…. That doesn\’t mean OIL at $100 soon. But oil can oscillate in a higher trading range with or without a new high, with stocks going higher on dips in OIL as before. is looking for an inverse H&S target for OIL above $70. But seems we might look to Elliot analysis for stock bottom for clues on oil top. It seems for most of us to make money with safe, diversified stock positions it is still ok to buy dips or hold without worrying too much about 5 waves up confirmations or perfect buy points at bottoms. best regards, Peter


  3. tony says:

    Hi Roger and Frank,
    Has enough of this market for one week.
    Setup some parameters in the friday update.
    Enjoy the Spring weather.


  4. Frank says:

    Man, those guys are really trying to push.  There\’s a wedge on QQQQ that it needs to break to the upside (down resistance line 43.85 to 43.73 to 43.69 and up support line 43.1 to 43.38)  But doesn\’t seems to have enough momentum and time is running out…


  5. Frank says:

    Hi Tony,
    Just would like to thank you for all the anaylsis!  These few days had been a roller coaster ride, wow!  GLD almost had a break out because of that China Trade talk.  Like you said, let\’s see if gold can break out next week!  Have a great weekend!


  6. Anonymous says:

    Hi Tony:
    any possibility of us seeing 1360 on S&P before we move higher? thanks


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