thursday morning

SHORT TERM: stocks gap up after three days of selling
Overnight the Asian markets were all higher, and again China’s SSEC posted another all time high. Europe came in 0.70% higher as well. At 8:30 the Commerce dept released the revised Q4 GDP figures, which displayed slightly stronger growth than expected at 2.5%, and 3.3% for 2006. The stock index futures rallied on the news, and Gold sold off. At the open the market gapped up higher, but immediately ran into some selling pressure. The SPX hit a high of 1426 before backing off a bit to 1423 by 10:00. With the SPX closing at the support pivot 1417 yesterday, and a gap up this morning. We should expect another run at the overhead pivot at 1431 soon. Bonds are flat, Crude is 75 cents higher, Gold $5.00 lower, and the Euro is higher. Notice that Crude and the Euro are both higher, and Gold is lower on the day. Gold may see a little downside pressure until monday, and then should resume its rally. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: bullish
LONG TERM: bullish.  

About tony caldaro

Investor
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9 Responses to thursday morning

  1. tony says:

    Hi Peter,
     
    Since OPEC will not help Iran\’s cause, they had to take things into their own hands, just as the UN was ready to add more economic sanctions.
    Without expensive oil they can not continue their charade of military power, and political influence in the Middle East.
    Their economy is plunging and additional sanctions will only make it worse.
    The latest estimates I read, is that they will not have nuclear weaponry until 2015 at the earliest.
    How many times will we allow this country to take hostages, and get away with it? 
    This has been going on for 30 years! Feel it\’s a lot to do about nothing again.
     
     

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  2. tony says:

    Hi Frank,
     
    I mentioned a couple of days ago that Gold would make a higher high, and then…
    either pullback or keep going. The higher high was important to keep things impulsive.
    The $65 level is an important, and $64 looks like solid support.
     
     

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  3. tony says:

    Hi Amit,
     
    Good! Yes, there has been a bit of a divergence between the SPX and DOW.
    In fact the DOW failed to make a new low today, as did the NYA.
     
    tony

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  4. tony says:

    Hi Frank … I\’ve been following a cycle, pointed out by Larry in our group, that seems to effect gold.
    Looks like it will bottom monday.

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  5. Frank says:

    Well, 1413 looks good so far! 🙂  All indicies formed an inverted head and shoulder (on 1 minute chart) around that level.  I guess they had to test the 20SMA, although $SPX didn\’t quite touch it though.  GLD tested it\’s 50SMA again today and it had a hard bounce off that, thanks for Crude.
     
    Frank

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  6. peter says:

    Hi,
     Seems Iran freeing the UK hostages would be likely catalyst for bull move in stocks but I am not holding my breath. Iran gets paid a huge ransom every day they keep the oil price up by being difficult. Now they are demanding UK apologize like their polite young lady Marine did before she is released. Reminds me of the French tricking young Washington into signing a document that he murdered a French officer at the beginning of the French Indian War. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/59a4e844-dd1a-11db-8d42-000b5df10621.html free article at Financial Times. We are still holding 5 Iranian bad guys in jail in Iraq and it was said that the Iran revolutionary guard is very angry about it. Some of these military types are speaking to the press now.

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  7. Frank says:

    Hi Tony,
    Short term, Crude is really making a havoc with the market, USO up 3.3% and rising!  But noticing the divergence in MCAD Histogram for both QQQQ and USO on 15 minutes chart.  QQQQ is going lower with higher "low" in MCAD Histogram and USO is going higher with lower "high" in MCAD Histogram.  But still interested in your comment on Gold, why gold would be under pressure until Monday?  It had a failed break out yesterday so is pulling back but because of crude is climbing back again.  I would hate to have gold climbing just because of Crude, because if crude were to fall, those people who bought for inflation purpose would sell.

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  8. Amit says:

    Hi Tony,
    Been doing well.For your uptrend to resume I wud like to see the SPX trading above 1421 consistently and maybe close above it.BTW do you notice a negative divergence between SPX and Dow.
    Warm Regards
    Amit.

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  9. Frank says:

    Hi Tony,
     
    Just wondering, why do you think gold is going to be under pressure until Monday?  Because of month/quarter end activity? Or some special charting technique or technical indicator you have?
     
    Frank

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