tuesday update

SHORT TERM: stocks close lower ahead of Bernanke’s speech.
Stocks opened lower this morning and continued to slide lower after Consumer confidence was report to have dropped, and the FED reported that subprime mortgages will continue to weigh on the real estate market for another one to two years. The selling subsided at around 11:30 when the SPX hit 1426 and the market started to rally. At 3:30 the rally hit 1431, our short term EW pivot point, and eased back into the close. The final figures displayed the SPX/DOW down 0.60%, and the NDX/NAZ was 0.70% lower. Bonds closed down about 1/4 point, Crude was 10 cents higher, Gold lost $1.00 and the Euro was higher. A pullback to the first impulse wave off the SPX 1364 lows, appears to be underway. Short term momentum is not yet oversold, therefore a retest of SPX 1423 or the EW pivot 1417 is likely, before the advance resumes. Tomorrow at 9:30 FED chairman Bernanke’s speech will be released as he appears before the Senate. Before the open at 8:30, the Feb Durable goods orders report will be released. After these two events the market is on its own for the rest of the day. Posting the customary SPX 15min chart and the longer term SPX60min chart, so you see how the market has traded in the past several months. Best to your evening!
MEDIUM TERM: bullish
LONG TERM: bullish.

About tony caldaro

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8 Responses to tuesday update

  1. tony says:

    Hi Barry,
    Crude is quite overbought short term, but your target is possible.
    It\’s been a lot stronger than I had thought.


  2. Unknown says:

    Tony,Oil\’s next target for this B wave is in the $68 – $70 range.Barry


  3. tony says:

    Hi Peter,
    Added it to today\’s update.


  4. peter says:

    Hi Tony,
     No 1990 Australian chart link there.
     Hope you still have it.
    thanks, peter


  5. tony says:

    Nice link thanks!


  6. tony says:

    Hi! … Crude should be running into resistance up here at $64+.
    This represents a full retracement of wave C of the first ABC down.
    Oil stocks are probably rallying with the positive bias in Crude and a rising stock market.
    Prefer Gold myself.
    Hi Peter,
    Posted a long term chart of the ASX on the friday update, where you posted that question.
    And answered your questions, I thought …


  7. peter says:

      Seems likely Oil may be rising now in a sideways larger pattern. Stockmarkets may get used to this higher level sideways pattern and remain bullish. 
      My hero Jim Rogers is making huge warnings on US housing, comparing it to previous internet bubble. Luckily RE tends to sag more slowly than tech stocks.
      I am still hoping for Tony\’s comments on longer term 1990 Aussi cycle chart he promised but i guess no hurry. 
     If anybody like me wants review of Elliott wave basics they are available at
     Shown on this \’motive wave\’ page, near the bottom,is the recent overlapping triangle 5th wave in SPX


  8. Anonymous says:

    hi Tony:
    i know you have mentioned that oil is in the downtrend and it should head back down..but looks like so far oil stokcs are making new highs..wondering if oil is back in its uptrend? and if it is, don\’t you think stock market will be affected by this? thanks


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