monday update

SHORT TERM: After a positive morning stocks close mixed.
Stocks opened the week mixed, rallied until 1:00, then gave it all back within an hour hitting the lows for the day at 2:00. Then rallied a bit into the close. A relatively quiet day with a positive bias. Bonds were down a few ticks, Crude off 30 cents and Gold off $2.00. At the close the SPX/DOW closed within +/- 0.10% of fridays close, adn the NDX/NAZ rose 0.15%. Lots of economic data this week. Tuesday kicks it off with another Consumer sentiment reading at 10:00. Wednesday before the open Q4 GDP, at 10:00 the Jan. Chicago PMI, and the FED’s short term rate decision at 2:15 in the afternoon. Important day! Thursday before the open is the Jan. Jobless claims and Dec. Core PCE, then at 10:00 the Jan. ISM. Finally friday has the Jan. Non-farm payrolls. Something for all the markets. Should be a wild week. Short term, as soon as the market got a little overbought today around 1:00, it quickly pulled back. Not much has changed on the wave count. It appears the market might remain in a holding pattern until wednesday. Best to your evening.
MEDIUM TERM: bullish
LONG TERM: bullish.

About tony caldaro

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4 Responses to monday update

  1. tony says:

    Philosophically speaking I would agree with you.
    Whether it be termed sin or an inappropriate choice matters not. They are all corrected or balanced out, in time.
    The markets, however, are not philosophical, but reactionary.
    Similar to Newtons\’s Law: whatever is in motion, tends to stay in motion, [until momentum (gravity) runs its course].
    Actual dollars buy actual items … real dollars is the purchasing power of actual dollars relative to an historical point in time [sort of a philosophical view]. If something becomes expensive people buy less of it or something else in its place. When a stock is selling at a multiple of 100, and another stock with the same growth is selling at a multiple of 50 in the same industry. People buy less of the expensive stock and more of the lesser expensive one. Real dollars have little to do with the stock market.


  2. peter says:

    I tend to be too much of a bear yes but somehow make money. Maybe a brainwash victim of the Prechter cult. I am trying to cure myself with reading philosophy, lately of tendencies in American thought as noted by 1920 Harvard Prof, George Santayana…….. \’Sin exists\’ . \’Sin is punished\’ . He was talking about Calvinist Protestants, Puritans, Islam, and some Catholics, in \’Winds of Doctirne; The Genteel Tradition in American Philosophy\’. Today he would probably include the politically correct but also George Bush\’s war on terror. For Prechter \’Sin\’ is:  greed, bull market manias… \’Sin is punished\’….corrections and bear markets…worse, a new depression and age of darkness. NON-objective Elliot Wave.


  3. tony says:

    Hi Peter,
    Good we need more bearish sentiment.
    True, but the NAZ is in an uptrend and an irregular correction has not occurred in the NAZ for the entire bull market. Why now?
    In the SPX, the positive divergence in July set up this rally. Continue to see it as a failed flat.
    Sounds like you\’re in the bearish camp. Crude is in a bear market, doubt if its going anywhere soon.
    I feel, before this week is over, the market will make its intentions, for the next several weeks, known.
    Medium term trends are up in the SPX/DOW/NYA/NDX/NAZ and TRAN. Until that changes I\’ll remain medium term bullish.
    However, the market is within 2% of a trend reversal. So the recent lows are important in maintaining the uptrend.
    Appreciate your input. We shall soon see.


  4. peter says:

    Hi Tony, Marc Faber has video on FOX saying 10% correction or more is due based on over-extension of prices and drying up of worldwide liquidity. NASDAQ looks like 2 wave may not have finished a proportionally large
    enough move down. In S&P we might call the b wave to July 1, an impulsive
    1,…. such that we are in the last 4,5 of iii,
    allowing for a larger drop to S&P soon.How about this scenario? Energy inventories drop big on Wed &\’s forecast of 90 days of below normal cold weather is believed, OPEC cuts are more believed, pushing oil& gas UP and stocks down.  Bonds fall  on strong economy news adding to the down push on stocks.    Weekly RSI and MACD can then fall from overbought to at least RSI 30 and Macd 0  before stocks rise. Best regards, Peter


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