thursday update

SHORT TERM: market spends the day consolidating recent gains.
Stocks gapped down at the open today, but soon recovered to post new all time highs in the DOW and NYA. After the early selling subsided at noon, the market rallied to turn positive on the day. But finished lower, as all the major indices closed down about 0.20%. Bonds closed about 1/2 point lower on the positive economic reports. Crude could barely manage a rally on the greater than expected drawdown in reserves. Gold continued impulsing higher, closing up $7 on the day, and now up nearly $13 on the week. OEW has now confirmed several ongoing downtrends, and I updated the respective charts accordingly. The most obvious was the NDX which continues to trade around its recent lows, while the SPX/DOW/NYA are all near their uptrend highs.
During the first week of May of this year, the SPX/DOW were making new highs, when the NDX/NAZ confirmed a new downtrend. Within a few days the SPX peaked, and then dropped over 6% in less than three weeks. The same negative NDX/SPX divergence that triggered that decline is currently setup to trigger the next one. Unless something spectacular occurs going into next week. A meaningful correction should start in the cyclicals soon. This uptrend, the strongest on record for this bull market, is now five months old. And, the SPX has exceeded one long term EW pivot point, and moved very close to the next at 1438. The recent high is 1432. Ideally, the SPX should continue this Minute wave v rally, in five micro waves, completing at the 1438 EW pivot point within the next few days. It is possible it could have another 5th failure, but unlikely while the DOW/NYA are still posting new highs. Posting the SPX15min chart below. Be careful, a meaningful correction appears probable soon.
MEDIUM TERM: NDX downtrending, SPX uptrending as the general market continues to weaken.
LONG TERM: bullish.      

About tony caldaro

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