correction, or new bear market

I received these questions over the weekend, and thought many may be pondering the same thing.
Tony, I notice that you say "Many EWer’s continue to label this 3 1/2 year bull market as a countertrend rally within an overall larger bear market that started in 2000. I consider this count as one of a low probability…" 
Can I ask what would need to happen for you to make their view your own?  Would we need to break the lows
of ’02/’03 ? Regards Jon
I have been watching with interest your labeling of the recent sell off as compared with some of the other EW gurus. While you say correction, they say bear market. How can there be so much disparity in interpretation?

Thanks, Sam
At this point it’s a simple matter of wave structure. I posted a chart a couple of weeks ago displaying the bears ABC countertrend advance scenario. I’m replacing that chart, in the photo section, with a more significant bear market validation scenario. If the NAZ drops below 1890, the April 2005 lows, this would confirm that the entire bull market was an ABC countertrend bear market rally. Impulse waves naturally do not get fully retraced, unless of course they are part of a larger wave structure. Thus, the five wave advance from April 2005 should not get fully retraced, unless it is part of a larger ABC structure. Good question!   
 

About tony caldaro

Investor
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