Overnight the Asian markets were mostly higher, gaining 0.4%. European markets opened higher but closed lower, losing 0.5%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market opened two points below yesterday’s SPX 1362 close. The market remained in a narrow range after the open, trading between SPX 1358 and 1363. At 10:30, after hitting SPX 1363 the market resumed yesterday’s pullback. Around noon the SPX hit 1356, for a 12 point pullback from yesterday’s 1368 uptrend high. A rally to SPX 1361 followed by 2:30. But the market eased back into a SPX 1358 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.45%. Bonds gained 13 ticks, Crude slipped 25 cents, Gold rallied $18, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX remains at the 1313/1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363/1372 pivots. Short term momentum hit oversold today before turning higher. Tomorrow, weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, then FHFA home prices at 10:00.

The market opened slightly lower today, entered a small trading range, then appeared to finish its pullback from SPX 1368 to 1356. With short term momentum was oversold the market started to work its way higher. Today’s pullback did not overlap our Micro wave 1 high at SPX 1353. The short term wave pattern, for Minute v, now looks like a normal Micro wave 1-2-3-4 from SPX 1337 Minute iv low. Refer to yesterday’s 5 min chart. Should today’s low hold and the market resume the uptrend. It would appear the SPX is heading toward the OEW 1372 pivot. Remember, the bull market high for the lagging SPX is at 1371. This area is where we would expect the current three month uptrend to end.

Short term support is at SPX 1341, then the 1313 and 1303 pivots. Overhead resistance is at the 1363, 1372 and 1386 pivots. Short term momentum is rising from oversold. The short term OEW charts remain positive from SPX 1343. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1368

LONG TERM: bull market

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Overnight the Asian markets were mixed, gaining 0.2%. European markets opened lower and ended lower, losing 0.3%. US index futures gave back some of the holiday gains but were still higher heading into the open. The market opened higher at SPX 1364, and rose to 1366 in the opening minutes. The SPX had closed at 1361 on friday. After hitting the new uptrend high the market pulled back to 1361 by 10:00. Another rally followed, and the SPX hit 1368 around noon. Then another pullback followed as the SPX hit 1358 by 3:00. A rally into the close ended the day at SPX 1362.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds lost 11 ticks, Crude rallied $2.65, Gold soared $37, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1313 and the 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum hit extremely overbought at today’s high, and ended the day at neutral. Tomorrow, Existing home sales at 10:00.

The market opened higher today hitting a new uptrend high at SPX 1368. The first fibonacci relationship, between the waves of this uptrend, has been hit: @ SPX 1367 Minor 5 = 0.618 Minor 1. Also of note, the maximum level of the DOW for that potential bearish alternate count was also hit today: DOW 13,005. Target tuesday, perhaps. After the new uptrend high the market pulled back 10 points to 1358. Should the terminating diagonal triangle scenario, for Minute wave v, be underway, this pullback should extend into the low 1350′s to overlap the first wave at SPX 1353. Then another new high, or close to it, could terminate the triangle and the uptrend. Should the market hold today’s lows and resume the rally, then Minute wave v would be extending under the Micro wave 3 scenario. Repeating the SPX 5min chart below to help understand these potential scenarios.

Short term support is at SPX 1341 and then the 1313/1303 pivots. Overhead resistance is at the 1363, 1372 and 1386 pivot cluster. Short term momentum declined from extremely overbought earlier today to neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1368

LONG TERM: bull market

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Overnight the Asian markets were higher, gaining 0.7%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.9%. US index futures gained in holiday trading: SPX (ES) +6.75 and the NDX (NQ) +10.5. Bonds lost 14 ticks, Crude rallied $1.85, Gold rose $10, and the USD was lower. Should this rise in the futures hold overnight the market should start the week, tomorrow, with new uptrend highs. Support remains at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Best to your holiday!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1363

LONG TERM: bull market

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The market gapped up on monday. Then after a pullback on tuesday, it made three consecutive new uptrend highs the following three days. For the week the SPX/DOW were +1.3%, and the NDX/NAZ rose 1.6%. Economic reports for the week were heavily biased to the upside. On the uptick: retail sales, business inventories, export prices, the NY/Philly FED, capacitiy utilization, the NAHB index, housing starts, the CPI/PPI, the WLEI, the monetary base, and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: import prices, industrial production, building permits and the M1 multiplier. Overall it was a fairly solid week for stocks and the economy. Next week we’ll get reports on Existing/New home sales and Consumer sentiment.

LONG TERM: bull market

It does appear, at least to this observer, many have joined the bull market camp and are expecting, at best, small pullbacks along the way as the market works its way higher. Not surprisingly, this is exactly what the market has done for the past three months. We are thinking, however, this market may have other plans for the medium term. Every one to three months, since this bull market began in March 2009, this market has experienced a significant pullback, if not a correction. While we do not see the technical deterioration which usually occurs before corrections. We do see a short term wave count that suggests the uptrend is nearing a conclusion. More on this later.

We continue to label this bull market as a five Primary wave Cycle wave [1]. The last time a Cycle wave [1] occurred in the US stock market was between 1932-1937. Right after the 1929-1932 crash. Thus far, Primary wave I rose from Mar09 at SPX 667 to May11 at SPX 1371. Then Primary wave II unfolded in an elongated flat into the Oct11 low at SPX 1075. We are currently in Primary wave III. Since rising Primary waves divide into five Major waves, as illustrated by the five Major waves of Primary I, we are currently counting Major waves 1 and 2, of Primary III, completed in Oct 11 at SPX 1293 and Nov11 at SPX 1159 respectively. We are currently in Major wave 3.

The technicals on the weekly chart, as well as many other technicals, continue to confirm this scenario. The MACD is now well above neutral, which only occurs during bull markets. And, the RSI is now quite overbought, which also occurs only during bull markets. Before this bull market ends it is likely to approach, or even exceed, the Oct 2007 SPX 1576 high.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1363

The current uptrend, which started in November at SPX 1159, we have been counting as Intermediate wave i of Major wave 3. Every rising Major wave, during a bull market, divides into five Intermediate waves. Thus far we can count five Minor waves up from that low as noted on the daily chart. While Minor wave 4 looks small in comparison to Minor wave 2. That pullback was the second largest of the entire uptrend. Minor waves, of course, are the subdivision of Intermediate waves.

After the Minor wave 4 low at SPX 1300, we calculated some fibonacci relationships for the waves within this uptrend, and arrived with the following: at SPX 1367 Minor 5 = 0.618 Minor 1, at SPX 1381 Minor 5 = 0.618 Minor 3, at SPX 1408 Minor 5 = Minor 1 and 0.618 Minor waves 1 – 3, and at SPX 1432 Minor 5 = Minor 3. Also, this uptrend equals the Major wave 1 uptrend at SPX 1377. Since the three lower figures fell within our 1361, 1372 and 1386 pivot range we considered this zone to be significant resistance for this uptrend. Should the market clear it, then we would be looking at SPX 1408 and then the OEW 1440 pivot. However, we are seeing a negative divergence starting to unfold on the daily charts. This usually occurs as uptrend tops unfold.

SHORT TERM

Our short term count displays the five Minor waves, with each rising Minor wave subdividing into five Minute waves. Notice Minor 1 had a short Minute i and v and an extended Minute iii. Then Minor 3 had only a short Minute i, and an extended Minute iii and v. Minor wave 5 appears to be acting like Minor 3 but on a smaller scale.

When we take a closer look at Minute wave v of Minor 5 we see two potentials. First, the market rallied from SPX 1337 to 1353 completing a Micro wave 1. Then pulled back in an irregular flat at SPX 1341 for Micro wave 2. And, now it is in Micro wave 3. Second, the SPX 1353 high was a wave A, the 1341 low a wave B, and the current rally wave C of an ongoing diagonal triangle. If this market continues to rally, then the diagonal scenario will be eliminated. However, if the market has a significant pullback into the low 1350′s, then rallies. The diagonal could end on the next new high. Early next week should gives us some indication of what is next.

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were mostly higher gaining 1.9% on the week. All are uptrending.

The European markets were mostly higher gaining 1.2% on the week. All uptrending.

The Commodity equity group were all higher gaining 2.4%. All uptrending.

The DJ World index is uptrending and gained 1.5% for the week.

COMMODITIES

The Bond uptrend is beginning to weaken a bit as bonds lost 0.4% on the week.

Crude is uptrending again gaining 5.2% on the week.

Gold continues to consolidate in its uptrend gaining 0.1% on the week.

The USD is trying to reverse its downtrend, gaining 0.3% on the week.

NEXT WEEK

A holiday shortened week as monday is Presidents day. On wednesday Existing homes sales will be reported. Then on thursday, weekly Jobless claims and FHFA housing prices. Then on friday, Consumer sentiment and New home sales. The FED has nothing scheduled. Best to you and yours this extended weekend and week.

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Overnight the Asian markets were mostly higher, gaining 1.2%. European markets opened higher and closed higher, gaining 1.0%. US index futures were higher overnight as well. At 8:30 the CPI was reported higher: +0.2% vs 0.0%. The market opened higher at SPX 1360 and rallied to 1363 in the first few minutes. Then the market began to pullback. At 10:00 Leading indicators were reported positive: +0.4% vs +0.4%. Just before 11:00 the SPX had pulled back to 1357 and then tried to rally again. Around 3:30 the SPX hit 1363 again before dipping to a 1361 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.30%. Bonds lost 1 tick, Crude gained $1.20, Gold slipped $6, and the USD was flat. Support for the SPX remains at 1313 and then 1303, with resistance at 1363 and then 1372. Short term momentum remains overbought. Last night the FED reported the M1 multiplier dropped, but the Monetary base increased. Today the WLEI was reported higher as it continues to rise from an August 2011 low.

The market opened higher today, and made a moderate new uptrend high right at the 1363 pivot. For an options expiration friday it was quiet. The two potential short term scenarios, noted yesterday, remain: this last rally from SPX 1341 is either Micro wave 3 of Minute v, or Micro wave c of a diagonal triangle Minute wave v. More on this in the weekend report. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1363

LONG TERM: bull market

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Overnight the Asian markets were mostly lower, losing 0.6%. Europe opened lower and were mostly lower, losing -0.2%. US index futures were lower overnight as well. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 348K vs 358K, Housing starts were reported higher: 699K vs 657K, Building permits were reported lower: 671K vs 679K, and the PPI was reported higher +0.1% vs -0.1%. At 9:00 FED chairman Bernanke’s speech: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20120216a.htm. The market opened one point higher than yesterday’s SPX 1343 close. By 10:00 it dipped down to yesterday’s low at SPX 1341 and started to rally. Also at 10:00 FED director Kamin’s Senate testimony was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/60A6241249DC44279EAB48B7EF53E336.htm, and the Philly FED was reported higher: 10.2 vs 7.3. The rally continued to work its way higher with only small pullbacks along the way until 3:30 when the SPX hit 1359. A small dip into the close ended the day at SPX 1358.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.00%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.45%. Bonds lost 18 ticks, Crude added 50 cents, Gold slipped $1, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remans at 1313 and then 1303, with resistance at 1363 and then 1372. Short term momentum rose from oversold yesterday to overbought today. Tomorrow, CPI at 8:30, then Leading indicators at 10:00. It is also Options expiration friday.

Tuesday night the futures market looked like it was setting up for a breakout. The rally faded as the market neared the open, and the market actually sold off after making a slightly higher high on wednesday. Last night the opposite occurred, futures were heading lower and looked like they were setting up for a breakdown. And, of course, futures improved heading into the open, and the market rallied to a new uptrend high. Two overnight fakeouts in a row. Now to the cash market.

Today the SPX retested yesterday’s 1341 low and then rallied to a new uptrend high. While the short term wave count is getting a bit complicated we thought we’d review the entire uptrend to put it into perspective. This uptrend started in late November, and has thus far rallied in five Minor waves. These waves, 1 – 4, are marked in dark blue on the chart below. Minor wave 5 is still underway. Within Minor 5 we have had five Minute waves, i -iv, labeled in dark green. Minute wave v is still underway. After the Minute wave iv low at SPX 1337 this market has bounced around a bit without making a whole lot of upside progress. Minute iii topped last thursday at SPX 1354, and a week later Minute wave v has only made it to 1359. We can now count the internal waves of Minute wave v as either an unfolding diagonal triangle, or Micro waves 1 and 2 complete with wave 3 underway now. Either way we still expect the OEW 1363 pivot range to contain this uptrend. Short term support is at SPX 1337/41 and then the 1313, 1303 pivots. Overhead resistance is at the 1363, 1372 and 1386 pivots. Short term momentum is quite overbought. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1359

LONG TERM: bull market

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Overnight the Asian markets were all higher, gaining 1.8%. Europe opened higher but ended mixed, gaining 0.2%. US index futures were much higher overnight, but began to fade heading into the open. At 8:30 the NY FED was reported higher: 19.5 vs 13.5. Then at 9:15 Industrial production was reported lower: 0.0% vs +0.4%, but  Capacity utilization was reported higher: 78.5% vs 78.1%. The market opened higher at SPX 1354, hit 1355, and pulled back to 1350 within the first few minutes of trading. The SPX had closed at 1351 yesterday. After that it tried to work its way higher. At 10:00 the FED issued the following: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/other/20120215a.htm. Around noon the SPX hit another new uptrend high at SPX 1356, within the OEW 1363 pivot range. Then the market pulled back sharply to SPX 1345 by 1:00. After a rally attempt to SPX 1349 by 2:00 the market headed lower again. The FED released it FOMC minutes at that time: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20120215a.htm. Around 3:30 the SPX hit 1341 and then bounced into a 1343 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.65%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.65%. Bonds lost 1 tick, Crude rallied $1.30, Gold rose $9, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX remains at 1313 and then 1303, with resistance at 1363 and then 1372. Short term momentum hit overbought this morning, and then dropped to oversold. Tomorrow, weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, with Housing starts, Building permits, and the PPI. Then at 9:00 FED chairman Bernanke gives a speech on Community banking. At 10:00 the Philly FED, and Senate testimony from FED director Kamin on the european banking situation.

Yesterday the market looked like the uptrend was rolling over after a failed Minute wave v at SPX 1353. Then in the last half hour of trading the market spiked up to close at its high for the day: SPX 1351. After trading much higher overnight the market backed off heading into the open. It did open higher and eventually reached SPX 1356, which is within the targeted OEW 1363 pivot range. The minimum expected for this uptrend has been reached.

After hitting SPX 1356 the market retraced right back to yesterday’s 1341 low. Since we have not had any irregular waves during this uptrend, the rally from 1341 to 1356 and then back to 1341 allows for several possibilities. An irregular flat is one, part of a diagonal triangle another, or even a small B wave to finish off the uptrend. However it unfolds the key level to watch now is SPX 1337. This was the low of Minute wave iv. If the market breaks below it the uptrend is likely over. Short term support remains at 1333, 1321 and then the 1313 pivot. Overhead resistance is at the 1363, 1372 and 1384 pivots. Short term momentum hit slightly oversold late this afternoon. The short term OEW charts are at neutral. We do see negative divergences on all major US indices on many short term time frames including the daily charts. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: new uptrend high SPX 1356

LONG TERM: bull market

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Overnight the Asian markets were mixed, gaining 0.3%. European markets were mostly lower, losing 0.2%. US index futures ended basically flat overnight. At 8:30 Retail sales were reported higher: +0.4% vs +0.1%, Export prices were higher: +0.0% vs -0.2%, and Import prices were positive, but lower: +0.1% vs +0.2%. The market opened four points lower than yesterday’s SPX 1352 close, and continued to pullback. At 10:00 Business inventories were reported higher: +0.4% vs +0.3%. Around 11:00 the SPX hit 1344 and tried to rally. The rally lasted for about one hour as the SPX rose to 1349. Another pullback followed until 3:30 when the SPX hit 1341. Then a sharp spike up rally occurred in the last half hour of trading driving the SPX to 1351, where it closed.

For  the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.10%. Bonds gained 9 ticks, Crude added 25 cents, Gold dropped $5, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX remains at 1313 and then 1303, with resistance at 1363 and then 1372. Short term momentum dropped from overbought yesterday to oversold today, then headed higher. Tomorrow, the NY FED at 8:30, Industrial production at 9:15, NAHB sentiment at 10:00, and then the FOMC minutes at 2:00.

The market opened lower, traded down to SPX 1341, and then spiked into the close to end the day only 1 point lower. Interesting day! From the Minute wave iv SPX 1337 friday low the market rallied to 1353 on monday. Suggesting a potential Minute wave v failure. Today the market pulled back 12 points to SPX 1341, and then rallied to 1351 into the close. There now appears to be two possibilites. And, it should not take long to determine which path the market is taking.

The first: the rally to SPX 1353 and pullback to 1341 are micro waves of an extending Minute wave v. A rally to SPX 1354 would help confirm. The second: the uptrend has topped on a failure at SPX 1353, and today’s rally is part of the correction. A close under SPX 1344 would help to confirm this scenario. Short term support remains at SPX 1333, 1321 and the 1313 pivot. Overhead resistance remains at the 1363, 1372 and the 1386 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day rising above neutral. Short term OEW charts are still positive. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1354

LONG TERM: bull market

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Overnight the Asian markets were mostly higher, gaining 0.4%. European markets were higher as well, gaining 0.6%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market gapped up at the open to SPX 1353. Right after the open the market started to pullback. Around 10:30 the SPX hit 1346, and then tried to rally again. At 2:00 the FED issued the this: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/enforcement/20120213a.htm. The market continued to drift up until it hit SPX 1353 again around 2:30. After that it dipped a couple of points, and ended the day at SPX 1352.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.60%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.90%. Bonds lost 5 ticks, Crude rallied $2.05, Gold added $4, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1313 and then 1303, with resistance at 1363 and then 1372. Short term momentum rose from friday’s positive divergence to overbought today. Tomorrow, Retail sales and Export/Import prices at 8:30. Then at 10:00 Business inventories.

After friday’s pullback to SPX 1337, and retest that afternoon, Minute wave iv looked complete. Today, the market gapped up helping to confirm that scenario, and hit just one point below the SPX 1354 uptrend high. After a small pullback the market then rallied to SPX 1353 again, without breaking through. This action is a slight deviation from the other Minute 5th waves during the rising Minor waves of this uptrend. Until this market makes a higher high, we will have to consider a potential failed Minute wave v occurred today. If this is the situation, the uptrend may have just ended.

Should the SPX hit 1354, it is again possible for it to continue to rise into the 1361/1365 area noted over the weekend. Tomorrow could be quite an important day. Previous Minute wave v’s have only lasted a day or two. After three months of uptrending this market has just entered an important juncture. Short term support remains at SPX 1333, 1321 and then the 1313 pivot. Overhead resistance is at the 1363, 1372 and 1386 pivots. Short term momentum is overbought, and the short term OEW charts remain positive as long as SPX 1340 holds. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1354

LONG TERM: bull market

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The US market was fairly quiet this week while trading in a narrow SPX 1336-1354 range. It did manage to reach marginal new uptrend highs on three of the days, but ended the week mixed. For the week the SPX/DOW were -0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Asian markets gained 0.3%, European markets lost 0.9%, and the DJ World index was -0.3%. Economic reports for the week were light, with results mixed. On the uptick: wholesale inventories, the monetary base, the WLEI, plus the budget deficit and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: consumer credit, the M1 multiplier, the trade deficit, and consumer sentiment. Next week, options expiration week, we’ll get reports on retail sales, industrial production, the CPI/PPI and the FOMC minutes.

LONG TERM: bull market

After the diagonal triangle downtrend low at SPX 1075 in early October, we expected a 61.8% retracement of the entire May-Oct 2011 decline, to SPX 1258, during the next uptrend. The market rallied to SPX 1257 on October 24th, pulled back, and then made a one day surge to SPX 1293 to end the uptrend. This retracement uptrend, however, looked impulsive. And, not a corrective uptrend, which occur during bear market rallies. This suggested the five month correction may have ended at that early October low. The next downtrend would be the deciding factor. If impulsive, the correction/bear market was resuming. If corrective, the correction was over with a Primary wave II low.

The downtrend from late October to late November was corrective, with an ABC pattern into the November 25th low at SPX 1159. Primary wave II had ended in early October, and Major waves 1 and 2, of Primary III, had completed at SPX 1293 and 1159 respectively. The current uptrend, which started at that late November low, was then expected to run into significant resistance between SPX 1313-1327. It did run into resistance just above that range, with the high hitting SPX 1333, before the market pulled back. But this was only the third wave of the five wave uptrend. After a pullback to SPX 1300 the uptrend resumed into the 1350′s area this week. While Major wave 3, of Primary wave III, began at the late November SPX 1159 low. We still believe our current uptrend is only the first of the five Intermediate waves of Major wave 3.

The technical indicators on the weekly chart continue to display the characteristics of a bull market. A rising MACD above neutral, and a rising RSI which is already quite overbought. In bear market rallies the RSI typically stops at slightly overbought, and the MACD does not rise above neutral. In bear markets the norm is an extremely oversold RSI accompanied by a declining, and below neutral, MACD.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1354

The current uptrend, from the Nov11 SPX 1159 Major wave 2 low, is now in its third month. A three month timespan for uptrends, has been the normal time cycle within the rising waves in this bull market. One uptrend recently shortened to one month, and two others extended to six and seven months. But three months has been the norm. With this in mind we should be looking for an uptrend high this month. Then a one month correction. Which had also been the norm for corrections.

The current wave pattern suggests this uptrend has completed four Minor waves as noted on the daily chart: Minor 1 SPX 1267, Minor 2 SPX 1202, Minor 3 SPX 1333 and Minor 4 SPX 1300. We are currently in Minor wave 5, the last wave of this five wave uptrend. Last weekend we posted several Fibonacci price projections for an uptrend high, using the wave relationships within the uptrend and the first uptrend from the Oct11 low. We concluded the OEW pivot cluster at 1363, 1372 and 1386 would provide significant resistance. If exceeded, then SPX 1408 and the pivot at 1440 would offer the next levels of resistance. Currently, it does appear, the first pivot at 1363 could end this uptrend.

SHORT TERM

Support for the SPX is at 1313 and then 1303, with resistance at 1363 and then 1372. Short term momentum hit quite oversold friday morning, then set up a positive divergence. We have been tracking these five Minor waves, during this uptrend, with the subdivisions of five Minute waves within each rising Minor wave. Minor wave 1 was quite simple, with only Minute wave iii extending. Minor wave 3 was a bit more complicated as both Minute waves iii and v extended. Minor wave 5, thus far, has had a simple Minute wave i and an extended Minute wave iii. This is similar to Minor wave 1.

Friday’s decline helped confirm the expected Minute wave iii high at SPX 1354. For Minute wave iv we expected a small abc decline with support around SPX 1337/38. This appears to have occurred on friday. The market should now rally, in Minute wave v, possibly up to SPX 1361/65. These levels are based on the characteristics of this uptrend during similar types of pullbacks over the past three months. Short term support is at SPX 1333, 1321 and then the 1313 pivot. Overhead resistance is at SPX 1347, then the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Our short term OEW charts moved to a negative bias friday right after the open, then turned positive with support in the upper 1330′s. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were mostly higher on the week for a net gain of 0.3%. All indices are in uptrends.

The European markets were mostly lower on the week for a net loss of 0.9%. All indices remain in uptrends.

The Commodity equity group was all lower on the week for a net loss of 1.7%. All indices remain in uptrends.

The DJ world index was -0.3% for the week, but remains in an uptrend.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continue their choppy uptrend ending the week about flat.

Crude was quite oversold last week in its downtrend, and rallied 2.1% this week.

Gold was quite choppy all week, still uptrending, but lost 0.3% on the week.

The USD continues to downtrend, but ended the week +0.2%.

NEXT WEEK

A heavy economic calendar on this options expiration week. On tuesday, Valentine’s day, Retail sales, Export/Import prices and Business inventories. Wednesday we have the NY FED, Industrial production, the NAHB housing index, and the FOMC minutes. On thursday, weekly Jobless claims, Housing starts, Building permits, the PPI and the Philly FED. Then on options expiration friday, the CPI and Leading indicators. As for the FED. On thursday FED chairman Bernanke gives a speech on community banking. Best to your week and weekend!

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