For the past three weeks the stock market has made new all time highs. In fact, the SPX has now risen exactly 1,000 points from the Mar09 667 low in 50 months. That is a flat 3% per month, for fifty months, while banks and T-bills have been paying next to nothing. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.8%, the NDX/NAZ gained 1.7%, and the DJ World index gained 0.8%. On the economic front, a week of negative reports outpacing positive ones. On the uptick: retail sales, the NAHB, building permits, consumer sentiment, leading indicators and the monetary base. On the downtick: export/import prices, the CPI/PPI, the NY/Philly FED, industrial production, housing starts, the WLEI, and weekly jobless claims rose. Next week will be highlighted by FED chairman Bernanke’s congressional testimony of the Economic Outlook, the FOMC minutes and Housing reports.

LONG TERM: bull market

It would appear, from recent observations and correspondence, that nearly everyone in the country knows that US stocks are in a bull market. It also appears that every overhead resistance pivot, in the past four months, has been nothing more than a target for this rising uptrend. This is quite exciting if you have owned stocks for the past few years. But a bit risky if you are just deciding to enter the market.

We published: http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2013/05/16/international-equity-markets/ on Thursday. If you are involved in foreign markets, or a foreign investor, it might be a worthwhile read.

The bull market we have been tracking for four years is now beginning to rise even beyond our expectations. We have posted, on the chart below, a 2014 target between SPX 1650 – 1780. And the market has already entered the range, with, what we estimate, three more uptrends to go. Our overall OEW theme remains the same: this is a Cycle wave [1] bull market.

A Cycle wave [1] divides into five Primary waves. Primary waves I and II competed in 2011, and Primary III has been underway since SPX 1075. Primary I divided into five Major waves, with a subdividing Major wave 1. Primary III is also dividing into five Major waves, but both Major waves 1 and 3 are subdividing into five Intermediate waves. Major waves 1 and 2 completed by mid-2012, and Major wave 3 has been underway since SPX 1267. Intermediate waves i and ii completed by late-2012, and Intermediate wave iii has been underway since SPX 1343. When Int. iii ends, we should have an Int. iv correction, then an Int. v uptrend to complete Major 3. When Major 3 ends, we should have a Major 4 correction, then a Major 5 uptrend to complete Primary III. Finally, when Primary III ends, we should have a Primary IV correction, then a Primary V uptrend to complete the bull market. Overall we should have at least three more uptrends, after the next correction, before the bull market ends.

MEDIUM TERM: Intermediate iii uptrend

The two longest uptrends of this entire bull market have been six months, (Int. iii/Major 1/Primary I), and seven months, (Major 3/Primary I). This uptrend, (Int. iii/Major 3/Primary III), is currently six months old. The three biggest point gaining uptrends, in this bull market, have been 281 pts., 289 pts. and 333 pts. This uptrend has already gained 324 pts. As you can see, our current uptrend is reaching the limits of the longest and strongest uptrends of the entire bull market. Quite a feat after a four year bull market.

We have been counting this uptrend as five Minor waves: Minor 1 SPX 1424, Minor 2 SPX 1398, Minor 3 SPX 1597, Minor 4 SPX 1536, and Minor 5 underway. We have also been tracking the OEW pivots at 1614, 1628, 1680 and 1699 as this uptrend has unfolded. In between that somewhat large gap we placed a Fibonacci resistance zone: SPX 1658-1667. This is exactly where the uptrend stopped this week: SPX 1667.

Right around this level we observe: SPX 1666 Minor 5 = Minute iii/Minor 3, SPX 1667 Minor 5 = 1.618 Minor 1, and SPX 1667 is 1,000 points from the Mar09 667 low. Just above this level: SPX 1676 Int. iii equals all of Major 3/Primary I, SPX 1680 Int. iii = 1.618 Int. i, and SPX 1690 Int. iii equals all of Major 1/Primary III. Then we have the OEW 1699 pivot. After a good run, free of resistance levels from the OEW 1628 pivot until now. The market is starting to run into a series of resistance levels, that include some of the entire bull market’s wave relationships. It would appear unlikely this uptrend can make it through all of these levels before rolling over into a downtrend.

Medium term support is at the OEW 1628 and 1614 pivots, with resistance at the 1680 and 1699 pivots.

SHORT TERM

Within Minor wave 5, from SPX 1536, we have been counting five Minute waves: Minute i SPX 1598, Minute ii SPX 1581, and Minute iii underway. Within Minute iii we have been counting five Micro waves: Micro 1 SPX 1635, Micro 2 SPX 1623, Micro 3 SPX 1661, Micro 4 SPX 1649 and Micro 5 underway. So this uptrend should be nearing its conclusion soon, as it is in Micro 5/Minute iii/Minor 5.

In fact, barring another extension, Micro wave 5 has an upside limit of SPX 1687. Due to the fact that Micro 3 was 38 pts., and shorter than Micro 1′s 62 pts. when Minute wave iii concludes we would expect a pullback into the SPX 1640′s. Then a simple rally to complete Minute v/Minor 5 and the uptrend. With negative divergences forming everywhere: hourly/daily/weekly. The SPX 1658-1667 resistance zone looks like it could hold Minute wave iii, and the OEW 1680 pivot range could hold the rest of the uptrend. We will see how this unfolds next week.

Short term support is at the 1628 and 1614 pivots, with resistance at the SPX 1658-1667 zone and the 1680 pivot. Short term momentum is developing a negative divergence. The short term OEW charts are positive with the reversal level at SPX 1643. Best to your weekend and investing/trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were mixed on the week for a net gain of 1.0%. Only S. Korea remains in a downtrend.

The European markets were all higher on the week for net gain of 2.3%. All uptrends.

The Commodity equity group were mixed on the week for a net loss of 0.5%. Canada remains in a downtrend.

The DJ World index is uptrending and gained 0.8%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continue to downtrend losing 0.3% on the week.

Crude appears to be in an uptrend, but lost 0.2% on the week.

Gold is still downtrending and lost 6.1% on the week.

The USD is uptrending and gained 1.4% on the week. The downtrending EURUSD lost 1.2%, and the downtrending JPYUSD lost 1.6%.

NEXT WEEK

Nothing scheduled until Wednesday: Existing homes sales and the FOMC minutes. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims, FHFA housing prices, and New home sales. Friday: Durable goods orders. FED chairman Bernanke gives a speech on Saturday 5/18 at 11:00. Then gives congressional testimony on Wednesday at 10:00. Best to your week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.5%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market gapped up at the open to SPX 1656. The market had closed at SPX 1650 yesterday. In the opening minutes the market popped to SPX 1658, dipped to 1655, then turned higher. At 10:00 Leading indicators were reported higher: +0.6% vs. -0.2%, and Consumer sentiment was reported higher: 83.7 vs. 76.4. Around 10:30 the SPX hit the all time highs again at 1661, pulled back to 1656, and then started to rally again. Around 3:30 the SPX hit 1667, then dipped to 1666 to end the week.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.90%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.95%. Bonds lost 19 ticks, Crude gained 85 cents, Gold dropped $30, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1628 and 1614 pivots, with resistance at the 1680 and 1699 pivots. Last night the FED reported a record high in the Monetary base: $3.105 tln vs. $3.034 tln. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 57.0% vs. 57.3%.

Today the market gapped up for the first time in exactly two weeks. Hard to believe it has been making higher and higher highs without opening gaps. After a bit of bouncing around the market tested the high at SPX 1661, pulled back, and then broke through to new highs. This is becoming a “Fly me to the Moon” type of bull market. Over the past four months, every overhead pivot and resistance area has become just another target for this uptrend. With this bull market being Cycle wave [1], just imagine Cycle wave [3]. It appears we are getting a preview of that in this third, of a third, of a third wave uptrend. Overall the SPX has now gained 1,000 points in 50 months. A flat rate of 3% per month for fifty months.

Short term support remains at the 1628 and 1614 pivots, with resistance at the SPX 1658-1667 zone and the 1680 pivot. Short term momentum displays a developing negative divergence. The short term OEW charts remain positive from 1590, with the reversal level now SPX 1643. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

We had not reported on these stock markets, in detail, since 2011. Since markets, in general, were giving mixed signals during 2011 and 2012. Now that things have cleared up we decided to do a complete review of all the world’s markets we track. The results were quite interesting. In general, while the US has remained in a quantified bull market since 2009 this can not be said of any of the foreign indices we track. Certainly foreign markets have been rising, and some have even made all time new highs. But quantitatively, they are all on different wave patterns than the SPX/DOW.

To arrive at this conclusion we first divided all the world’s indices, we track, into four categories: 1. those that continued to rise from 2009, 2. those that continued to fall from 2007, 3. those that had three wave rallies into 2010/11, and 4. those that had five wave rallies into 2010/11. The first two were easy to decipher since there was only one index in each category: the US in category 1, and Greece in category 2. The US ended its 2007-2009 Super cycle 2, and has been in a Cycle [1] bull market since 2009. Greece ended its 1999-2012 Super cycle 2 bear market, and started a new Cycle [1] bull market in 2012. We actually identified that mid-2012 low without much fanfare on the public blog. The details of the bull market can be found in the public charts. Categories 3 and 4 took  lot more work to decipher.

In category 3 we found: Australia, Brazil, China, England, France, Italy, Japan, Russia, Singapore, Spain and the STOX 50.

Japan has been in a Super cycle bear market since 1989. Despite the recent surge, due to QE and currency devaluation, we still believe this bear market has not concluded.

England, France, Italy and the STOX 50 have been in a Super cycle bear market since 2000. These four indices are following the Secular deflationary cycle. France and the STOX 50 look the same long term: a Cycle [A] low in 2003, a Cycle [B] high in 2007, then a Primary A low in 2009, and now an abc Primary B advance underway. Both indices will lose all of the gains since 2009 during the next bear market.

England is a bit different. A Cycle [A] low in 2003, a Primary A high in 2007, a Primary B low in 2009, and now a Primary C advance underway. It too should lose all of its gains, since 2009, during the next bear market.

Italy is a bit different still. A Cycle [A] low in 2002, a Cycle [B] in 2007, and now there appears to be a diagonal triangle Cycle [C] underway. Italy is much closer to a Super cycle bear market low than the three indices noted above.

Australia and Singapore look quite similar. A Super cycle high in 2007, followed by a Cycle [A] low into 2009, a Primary A into 2010/2011, Primary B low in 2011, and now a Primary C underway. During the next bear market both indices should lose all of their gains from 2009.

Brazil and Russia look similar. A Super cycle top in 2008, followed by a Cycle [A] into 2008, then a Cycle [B] into 2011, and now a Cycle wave [C] underway. It is quite unlikely either index will see the 2011 highs before they fully retrace the advance from 2008.

Spain appears to be in a Cycle [1] bull market since mid-2012 like Greece. Details on the public blog charts.

China, another of the BRICs, has a totally different pattern. A Primary I top in 2001, a 4-year Primary II until 2005, a strong Primary III into 2007, now a 5-year triangular Primary wave IV. We believe the C wave of the triangle completed in late-2012, and the D wave, possibly back to 3,000 is underway. When the D wave completes, a downward E wave will follow to a higher low than waves A and C to complete Primary IV. Then China should be on its way to all time new highs.

In category 4 we found: Canada, DJ World, Germany, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, S. Korea, and Switzerland. Canada, DJ World, Hong Kong and Indonesia all look similar. A Super cycle top in 2007, then a Super cycle low in 2009. This is followed by a short Cycle wave [1] bull market into 2011. Then a Cycle [2] bear market begins with a Primary A down into 2011, currently a Primary B wave up, which will be followed by a Primary C down to complete the Cycle [2] bear market. None, of these indices, like the SPX/DOW, will see the 2009 lows again.

India is a but different long term. The Nifty made a Super cycle low in 2001. The 2008 peak was the end of Cycle wave [1], and the 2008 low Cycle wave [2]. Quite short in time, historically. The five wave advance from that low to 2010 was Primary I, of Cycle [3]. Next we have a selloff into 2011. This is counted as a Primary II, with Primary III underway from that low. We are also carrying an alternate count, listed on the BSE chart. This alternate count, posted below, suggests the 2011 was the end of Major A of Primary II. And the current advance is Major B. Under this scenario the BSE should drop below the 2011 low during the next bear market.

Germany is very similar to the alternate count on India. The only difference is that it completed its Super cycle 2 bear market low in 2003.

Next we have S. Korea. This is a very interesting long term chart. Notice it is currently in a Primary IV bear market. Having completed Primary III in 2011, and Primary’s I and II way back in 2000 and 2001. S. Korea may be forming a Primary IV triangle, then a spike higher to complete Primary V. If not, the 2008 lows may be revisited during the next worldwide bear market.

Last, but not least, is Switzerland. An even more interesting pattern going back to 1991. Notice the five waves up into a 2000 Primary III peak, then the Primary IV bear market into 2003. After that a Primary V, to complete SC 1, in 2007. This is almost identical to the SPX/DOW. But the similarity ends there. The selloff into 2009 we have labeled as Cycle wave [A]. Since then the SMI has rallied in a Primary A, down in a Primary B, and now rising in a Primary C. When this bear market rally concludes we expect the SMI to retest the lows in 2009.

There, you have it. A total review of all the foreign indices we track in one concise report. Hope this will help some of you in the months and years ahead.

Overnight the Asian markets closed mixed. Europe opened higher but closed mixed as well. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 360K vs. 323K, the CPI lower: -0.4% vs. -0.2%, Housing starts lower: 853K vs. 1036K, but Building permits were higher: 1017K vs. 902K. The market opened two points under yesterday’s SPX 1659 close, bounced to 1660, then pulled back to 1653 just past 10:00. At ten the Philly FED was reported lower: -5.2 vs. +1.2. Another rally attempt ended at the SPX 1661 high by 11:30, then the market again pulled back. At 12:30 FED governor http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/raskin20130516a.htm Raskin’s speech was released. The market pulled back into the last hour of trading as the SPX hit 1649. Then a bounce into the close ended the day at SPX 1650.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.15%. Bonds gained 16 ticks, Crude added 70 cents, Gold lost $5, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1628 and 1614 pivots, with resistance at the 1680 and 1699 pivots. Tomorrow: Consumer sentiment and Leading indicators at 10:00 on Options expiration Friday.

The market opened lower today, dipped down to SPX 1653, rallied back to 1661, then dropped below yesterday’s low of 1651. This consolidation day is enough to consider this two-day pullback as the fourth wave of Minute wave iii. The market touched oversold on the hourly RSI as the SPX hit 1649. This pullback is now equal to the wave 2 pullback of Minute iii, which also took about two days. This may just be enough to end this pullback and send the market to new highs.

Short term support is at the 1628 and 1614 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1658-1667 and the 1680 pivot. Short term momentum declined to oversold. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1638. Best to your trading on Opex day!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.8%. European markets opened lower but gained 0.3%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 the PPI was reported lower: -0.7% vs. -0.6%, as was the NY FED: -1.4% vs. +3.1%. Then at 9:15 Industrial production was reported lower, but in line with expectations: -0.5% vs. +0.4%. The market opened two points below yesterday’s SPX 1650 close, dipped to 1647, then began to rally. At 10:00 the NAHB was reported higher: 44 vs. 42. Also FED director Gibson’s testimony was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/gibson20130515a.htm. The rally continued until around 12:30 when the SPX hit 1661, right in our 1658-1667 resistance zone. Then a pullback followed. Just past 2:30 the SPX hit 1651, for a 10 point decline. After that the market rallied into a 1659 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.45%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.25%. Bonds gained 5 ticks, Crude added 10 cents, Gold dropped $32, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1628 and 1614 pivots, with resistance at the 1680 and 1699 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, along with the CPI, Housing starts and Building permits. At 10:00 the Philly FED, then at 12:30 a speech from FED Raskin at 12:30.

The market opened slightly lower today, then shot up to all time new highs. The bull market has hit our minimum upside target these past two days, SPX 1650-1780. Mission accomplished. All additional upside progress, ad we expect more, will create a higher low for Cycle wave [2].

The rally carried the SPX to 1661, before the market pulled back 10 points in the afternoon. This pullback may/or may not be the fourth wave of Minute iii. Should we get additional upside activity tomorrow, we can probably just ignore it. Should the market consolidate for a day or so, it probably is. Either way we expect SPX 1661 will eventually be exceeded.

Short term support is at the 1628 and 1614 pivots, with resistance at the SPX 1658-1667 zone and the 1680 pivot. Short term momentum wiped out the potential negative divergence early, but pulled back to nearly neutral after being quite overbought. The short term OEW charts remain positive from SPX 1580, with the reversal level now 1633. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend makes new high

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.7%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 both Export (-0.5% vs. -0.2%) and Import (-0.2% vs. -0.2%) prices were reported lower. The market opened two points above yesterday’s SPX 1634 close and continued to rise. In the first few minutes the SPX made a new bull market high, and continued higher until it hit 1650 by 12:30. After that it started to pullback. The pullback ended around 3:00 at SPX 1645. Then the market hit SPX 1651 just before a 1650 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.90%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.60%. Bonds lost 12 ticks, Crude slid $1.00, Gold dropped $6, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1628 and 1614 pivots, with resistance at the 1680 and 1699 pivots. Tomorrow: the PPI and NY FED at 8:30, Industrial production at 9:15, NAHB housing at 10:00, then Senate testimony from FED director Gibson at 2:30.

The market opened at the all time high today, and, went higher. This uptrend, Intermediate wave iii, has now traveled 308 points. This is the second largest point gain uptrend of the entire bull market. The buying stampede continues. On a short term basis, it looks like we are in the third wave of Minute wave iii, of Minor 5, of the uptrend. The market ended the day with a slight negative divergence at the new high. Let’s see how this plays out tomorrow.

Short term support is at the 1628 and 1614 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1658-1667 and the 1680 pivot. Short term momentum was quite overbought at SPX 1650, and ended the day overbought. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level at SPX 1627. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: new uptrend high

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.8%. Europe opened lower but ended mixed. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 Retail sales were reported higher: +0.1% vs. -0.4%. The market opened lower at SPX 1630, bounced to 1631, then pulled back to 1627 by 10:00. The market had closed on Friday at SPX 1634. At ten Business inventories were reported flat: 0.0% vs. +0.1%. The market then started to rally. At 12:30 the SPX cleared the OEW 1628 pivot, hitting a new high at 1636, then started to pullback. At 3:00 the FED: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20130513a.htm, released this. The market pulled back to SPX 1631 by 3:30, then bounced into a 1634 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.05%. Bonds lost 5 ticks, Crude slid $1.00, Gold dropped $12, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1628 and 1614 pivots, with resistance at the 1680 and 1699 pivots. Tomorrow: Export/Import prices at 8:30.

The market opened lower today, bounced around early, then rallied to a new high at SPX 1636. This last rally should have cleared the OEW 1628 pivot, suggesting higher prices ahead short term. Our tentative Minute wave iii label was removed when the market made this new high. While Minute iii could end in a diagonal triangle, like Minute i. Probabilities suggest is should continue higher, into possibly the SPX 1658-1667 resistance zone, before topping out.

Short term support is at the 1628 and 1614 pivots, with resistance at the SPX 1658-1667 zone and the 1680 pivot. Short term momentum remained between neutral and overbought for most of the day. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1621. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend new high

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

It was another week of all time record highs on Wall Street. The SPX hit 1635, nearly 1,000 points off the March 2009 low. And, the DOW closed over 15,000 for the first time in its 117 year history. For the week the SPX/DOW were +1.10%, the NDX/NAZ were +1.45%, and the DJ World index was +1.0%. On the economic front it was a quiet week, but positive reports again outnumbered the negative one 5-1. On the uptick: wholesale inventories, the M1 multiplier, the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims and the Treasury budget improved improved. On the downtick: consumer credit. Next week, options expiration week, the economic flood gates open again: highlighted by Industrial production, PPI/CPI, Retail sales and Housing. Best to your week.

LONG TERM: bull market

Back in mid-March 2009 when we made the call, around SPX 700, for a three wave rally to SPX 1150 by early 2010. I do not think there was 5% of our readers who agreed with us. Then, when we made the call in February 2010, that the advance wasn’t just a B wave rally but a Cycle wave [1] multi-year bull market. We probably had about 5% again. Since then there have been a couple of times when this bull market hit an inflection point: mid-2011 and again in 2012. But each time it recovered, thanks to the FED’s liquidity programs, and here we are at all time new highs.

We have observed in recent weeks, especially after new highs were hit. A growing shift in sentiment from neutral-bullish, to outright bullishness. “QE forever” was a recent quote in one of the blog comments. We sense the doom and gloom in 2009, when the market bottomed, will reach a euphoric boom by time the market tops. We are not there yet. When the top does arrive, however, we would again expect about 5% of our readers to agree. Project, monitor an adjust.

Our long term bull market count remains unchanged. Super cycle wave 2 ended in March 2009, and Cycle wave [1] of the next Super cycle bull market is underway. Cycle wave bull markets unfold in five Primary waves. Primary waves I and II completed in 2011, and Primary wave III has been underway since then. Primary I divided into five Major waves with a subdividing Major wave 1. Primary III is also dividing into five Major waves, but both Major waves 1 and 3 are subdividing into five Intermediate waves. Major waves 1 and 2 completed by Mid-2012, and Major wave 3 has been underway since then. Intermediate waves i and ii completed by late-2012, and Intermediate iii has been underway since mid-November.

We still expect this market to follow this Int. iii uptrend with an Int. iv downtrend. Then an Int. v uptrend to complete Major wave 3, followed by a Major 4 downtrend. Then a Major 5 uptrend to complete Primary III, followed by a Primary IV downtrend. Finally a Primary V uptrend to complete the bull market by early 2014 between SPX 1650 and 1780.

MEDIUM TERM: Int. iii uptrend continues

During a six month uptrend there are periods of time when traders think the market will never correct again. We had one of those periods at the beginning of the year that lasted until mid-February. And apparently we are in one now.

We continue to count this uptrend as Intermediate wave iii. It has divided into five Minor waves: Minor 1 SPX 1424, Minor 2 SPX 1398, Minor 3 SPX 1597, Minor 4 SPX 1536 and Minor 5 still underway. In last weekend’s report we noted a few wave relationships, suggesting some resistance levels ahead. Please review that report for the details.

During this bull market there have been two previous lengthy uptrends in time, and three lengthy ones in points gained. The two longest uptrends lasted six and seven months, and both were third waves. This uptrend has already risen for six months. The three largest point gains were 281, 289 and 333 points. Two of those advances were third waves. If we add these numbers to the SPX 1343 Int. ii low we arrive with: SPX 1624, 1632 and 1676. This uptrend hit SPX 1635 this week.

We also noted last weekend the rallies, during this uptrend, have all been related to each other in Fibonacci relationships. And, if Minor wave 5 advances beyond 89 points, (SPX 1625), which was the length of Minor 1 and Minute iii. It is likely to reach the length of Minute i, which was 133 points, or SPX 1667. With the OEW 1628 pivot range covering the lower numbers: 1624, 1625 and 1632, we placed a cutoff at SPX 1635. This is exactly where the market stopped on Thursday. When the uptrend clears this level, which is likely, the next two levels to watch are SPX 1667 and the OEW 1680 pivot range, which includes 1676. To conclude: when SPX 1635 is exceeded the next resistance is the SPX 1658-1667 zone, then the OEW 1680 pivot.

SHORT TERM

Short term support is at the 1628 and 1614 pivots, with resistance at the SPX 1657-1667 zone and the 1680 pivot. Short term momentum ended the week slightly overbought. The short term OEW charts have been positive since SPX 1581, with reversal level now 1617.

With the uptrend in Minor wave 5 we have been tracking its advance from the SPX 1536 low. We counted an impulse wave to SPX 1598, labeled that Minute i. Then a pullback to SPX 1581, which was labeled Minute ii. Minute iii has been underway since that low. After a strong 54 point rally, the advance had its first significant pullback on Thursday, (SPX 1635-1623). This could have signaled the end of Minute iii if this pullback continues lower into the SPX 161x’s. If not, and it makes new highs, it was probably only waves 1 and 2 of Minute iii. Early next week should give us the answer. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were mostly higher on the week for a net gain of 2.5%. Only S. Korea remains in a downtrend.

The European markets were all higher on the week for a net gain of 2.0%. All indices are uptrending.

The Commodity equity group were mixed for a net gain of 0.2%. Only Canada remains in a downtrend.

The DJ World index is uptrending and gained 1.0%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds again had an okay week then a bad Friday, losing 0.7% on the week. Bonds yields have already confirmed an uptrend.

Crude has been quite volatile, as usual, and gained 0.5% on the week. Always difficult to track its bear market, but it looks like an uptrend is underway.

Gold remains in a bear market downtrend and lost 2.3% on the week.

The USD confirmed an uptrend gaining 1.3% on the week. The EUR looks to be heading lower losing 1.0% on the week, as the CHF has already confirmed a downtrend.

NEXT WEEK

Monday kicks off the week with Retail sales at 8:30, then Business inventories at 10:00. Tuesday: Export/Import prices. Wednesday: the PPI, NY FED, Industrial production and the NAHB housing index. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims, the CPI, Housing starts, Building permits, and the Philly FED. Friday: Options expiration, Consumer sentiment and Leading indicators. As for the FED. FED governor Raskin gives a speech on Thursday in Wash. DC. Then FED chairman Bernanke gives a speech on Saturday in Mass. Best to your weekend and week.

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.4%, mostly Japan. European markets opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened at SPX 1628, one point above yesterday’s close. Right after the open FED chairman Bernanke’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20130510a.htm. The market bounced around in the opening half hour, rising to SPX 1630, dipping to 1626, then rising to 1632 by 10:00. After that the choppiness continued. The market dipped to SPX 1625 by 10:30, rallied to 1630 by 11:30, and then pulled back again. Around noon the SPX hit 1624, and then started to rally again. At 2:00 the Treasury reported an inline surplus: $112.9 bln vs. $59.1 bln. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1634, and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.75%. Bonds lost 20 ticks, Crude dropped 55 cents, Gold fell $12, but the USD was higher. Medium term support rises back to the 1628 and 1614 pivots, with resistance at the 1680 and 1699 pivots. Last night the FED reported an increase in the M1 multiplier: 0.844 vs. 0.812. Today the WLEI was reported higher: 57.3% vs. 57.1%.

After yesterday’s new bull market high at SPX 1635, the market pulled back to 1623 for the first significant pullback since Minute wave iii began at SPX 1581. Today the market traded within that range for the entire day. After nearly retesting yesterday’s low, however, the market ended the day/week on a positive note: rallying into the close and finishing the week one point under the SPX 1635 bull market high. If the SPX clears the high next week, there should be higher prices ahead.

Short term support rises to the 1628 and 1614 pivots, with resistance at the SPX 1658-1675 range and the 1680 pivot. Short term momentum did not make it to oversold and ended the week slightly overbought. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1617. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. European markets opened lower and lost 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 323K vs. 324K. The market opened lower at SPX 1631, then bounced back to yesterday’s record close at 1633. After that it began to pullback. At 10:00 Wholesale inventories were reported higher: +0.4% vs. -0.3%. The pullback continued until 10:30 when the SPX hit 1627. Then the market began to rally. Around 2:00 the SPX hit a new high at 1635. Then when the decline in the Euro gathered momentum the market began to pullback. At 3:00 the SPX hit 1623, then the market started to rebound. At 3:15 FED governor Duke’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/duke20130509a.htm. The market then bounced to SPX 1629 before heading lower again. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1623 again, then bounced to close at 1627.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.20%. Bonds lost 3 ticks, Crude slid 75 cents, Gold fell $17, and the USD rallied. Medium term support drops to the 1614 and 1576 pivots, with resistance at the 1628 and 1680 pivots. Tomorrow: FED chairman Bernanke gives a speech in Chicago at 9:30, then the Treasury Budget at 2:00.

The market bounced around at the open today then rallied to a new bull market high at SPX 1635. This level is the upper limit of the OEW 1628 pivot range. Then when the USD rally started to get noticed the market pulled back to SPX 1623 in one hour. This decline is the first significant pullback since this Minute wave iii rally began at SPX 1581. That’s a 54 point rally without one significant pullback. The longest we had seen during this uptrend was Minute v of Minor wave 3′s 57 point rally without a significant pullback. This suggests Minute wave iii could have ended at today’s SPX 1635 high. A further pullback to the OEW 1614 pivot would fit this possibility. Tomorrow may prove to be quite interesting.

Short term support drops to the 1614 and 1576 pivots, with resistance at the 1628 and SPX 1658-1675 resistance zone. Short term momentum is declining off another negative divergence. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1614. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend new high

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp