weekend update

REVIEW

The market started the week by making a new uptrend high on Monday, pulled back, made a new all time high on Thursday, pulled back, then ended the week within one point of the all time high. For the week the SPX/DOW were +0.60%, the NDX/NAZ were -0.75%, and the DJ World index gained 1.0%. Economic reports returned to a positive bias this week. On the uptick: retail sales, the NY/Philly FED, business inventories, the CPI, industrial production and capacity utilization, the NAHB housing index, and weekly jobless claims were lower. On the downtick: housing starts, building permits, the M1 multiplier and the WLEI. Next week more housing reports, durable goods orders and consumer sentiment.

LONG TERM: bull market

The market ended the week within one point of the all time high established on Thursday at SPX 1693. The bull market continues. Unfortunately, as we have been reporting, the US is one of the few, if not the only, bonafide bull market of the twenty international indices we track. When this bull market starts to stumble the thud will be heard worldwide.

We continue to count this bull market as Cycle wave [1] of Super cycle wave 3. Super cycle bull markets last 70 – 80 years. But Cycle [1] bull markets typically last about five years. We continue to expect five Primary waves to conclude before this bull market ends. Primary wave I and II completed in 2011, and Primary III has been underway since then. Primary I divided into the typical five Major waves, but had a subdividing Major wave 1. Primary III is also dividing into five Major waves, but both Major 1 and 3 are subdividing into five Intermediate waves.

SPXweekly

Major waves 1 and 2, of Primary III, completed by mid-2012. Major wave 3 has been underway since then. Intermediate waves i and ii completed by late-2012, and Int. waves iii and iv completed by mid-2013. Intermediate wave v, of Major wave 3, of Primary III is currently underway. When this uptrend concludes a Major wave 4 correction will follow, and the market should lose about 10% of its value. After that we expect a Major wave 5 uptrend to new highs, concluding Primary wave III. Then after a Primary wave IV correction, a Primary wave V uptrend to new highs should complete the bull market. We continue to target the bull market conclusion by late-winter to early-spring of 2014.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

When this uptrend began at SPX 1560 in mid-June we projected a minimum target of the 1680 pivot for Minor wave 3, and the 1699 pivot for Minor wave 5. These targets were met this week when the SPX entered the 1699 pivot range. We had also projected a July uptrend high would probably end at the 1699 pivot, or an August uptrend high at the 1779 pivot. The question on some traders minds; “Is the market topping here, or preparing to extend into August?”

SPXdaily

During the week we posted three potential short term counts to address this question. One of the three has already been eliminated. This leaves us with two potential counts: one posted on the SPX hourly chart, and the other on the DOW hourly chart. Both counts, as of Friday’s close are still valid. The SPX count suggests the uptrend is in the process of a forming a top. The DOW count suggests the uptrend will probably extend into August. The internal wave structure of this uptrend and the technicals, are the keys to this inflection point. Medium term support is at the 1680 and 1628 pivots, with resistance at the 1699 and 1779 pivots.

SHORT TERM

From the SPX 1560 Intermediate wave iv downtrend low we counted five waves up to SPX 1627, then a three wave pullback to 1605. This completed Minor waves 1 and 2. After that the market rallied quite strongly, in a five wave sequence, to SPX 1685. This could have ended Minor wave 3. The pullback that followed, however, was smaller than the 20+ points expected for a Minor wave 4 (1685-1672). From that low the market rallied to SPX 1693, and then pulled back on Friday to 1684 for another small pullback. During an Int. wave i or wave iii uptrend, we would consider this normal Minor wave 3 activity. However, since there have be several shortened fifth waves during this bull market. We can not assume this fifth wave will follow normal uptrend activity.

SPXhourly

During this uptrend the smaller pullbacks, and there have been quite a few, have declined between 9 and 13 points. Minor wave 2 stands out as a 22 point pullback. From the Minor wave 2 SPX 1605 low the market has advanced into Friday’s close with four small pullbacks between the same 9 and 13 points. Normally, we would consider this rally an ongoing Minor wave 3. In fact, should the SPX rise above 1693 we would count this advance as an ongoing Minor wave 3. The count posted on the DOW charts. If it fails to clear SPX 1693, then the count posted on the SPX charts, a potential uptrend high, becomes the probable count.

Technically there are some negatives supporting a potential uptrend high scenario. The SPX/DOW have met the minimum requirements to complete this uptrend, and there are negative divergences on most timeframes. A strong rally, however, would clear them away. Currently, we would put the probabilities for the two scenarios at 50-50. Short term support is at the 1680 pivot and SPX 1658-1667, with resistance at the 1699 and 1779 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week overbought. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1675.

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were mostly higher gaining 0.2% on the week. Australia, India and Japan are in confirmed uptrends.

The European markets were mostly higher gaining 1.9% on the week. England, France, Germany and Switzerland are in confirmed uptrends.

The Commodity equity group were all higher on the week gaining 3.3%. Canada and Russia are in confirmed uptrends.

The DJ World index is uptrending and gained 1.0% on the week.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continues to look like they are beginning to uptrend gaining 0.7% on the week.

Crude remains in an uptrend since April gaining 1.8% on the week.

Gold continues to work its way higher gaining 0.9% on the week.

The USD may be downtrending again losing 0.3% on the week.

NEXT WEEK

Monday we have Existing home sales at 10:00. Tuesday: FHFA housing prices. Wednesday: New home sales. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims and Durable goods orders. Friday: Consumer sentiment. A quiet week, with a quiet FED, ahead of the FOMC meeting on Tuesday/Wednesday of the following week. Best your weekend and week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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245 Responses to weekend update

  1. torehund says:

    if i am on track, we may get a historical retracement rally in solar, shipping and many other sectors of commodities+++, stocks that have been non performing since not only 2008 but many of them since 2000. As I have aired earlier this retracement will be a quick abc and constitute wave one for the Stocks in the NeXT bullcycle to come. China may very well be in a bear still but tonys projection of 3000 should bive plenty of juice to the respective sectors. Gold could have made a reversed 1,2 and 3 finished so a four should have potential up to where wave one ended. Thats the play there and nearing such an inflection one can rethink if a 5 is in the Cards of the Whole downturn was a simple abc Down after all. As for oil i look to the 2004 until now abc up which should end at 140 usd or so…after that I am envisioning the frist cycle in bull an abc up to possibly 200 usd to make bulls happy !

  2. blackjak100 says:

    Tony-

    Do you still expect Minor 3 to end in the 1699 pivot with the relabeling of your charts? I’m assuming you do, but just wanted to double check in case you’re thinking it extends to infinity.

  3. torehund says:

    thanks for listening
    concerning URRE, lol.

    • torehund says:

      in the last major bull juniors in uranium went X 1000, lots of upside still ! No more nuke fuel passed end 2013.

  4. That little pullback looked like not much of anything.

  5. mkmason2013 says:

    lunker and talon, haven’t seen either of you at all today. Just checking to make sure you’re both okay. GL! M

  6. jackkendo1987 says:

    Tony,
    iv of int iii pulled back 32 points from 1687 to 1635.
    Here iv of int v pulled back only 9 points 1693 to 1684?
    9 vs 32
    excessively out of proportion?

  7. Chung Wang says:

    Tony,
    If 3 is in placed around 1699 pivot, how much pullback you anticipate for the 4?

  8. mjtplayer says:

    With apogee yesterday, a full moon today and maximum declination tomorrow; astrology is pointing to a significant top right here in this area. Major 3??

  9. fbender7 says:

    Interesting to see so many SPY call options down in price this morning in spite of the fact that SPX is up.

  10. jackkendo1987 says:

    Tony,
    iii /3 at 1693,
    iv/3 at 1684,
    v/3 at 1698 or higher?

    DOW v/3 truncated?
    DOW v/3 is lower than iii/3?

  11. jackkendo1987 says:

    VIX +2%
    UVXY -2%
    ???

  12. oneandonlyuniverse says:

    Hey Mr T,
    Iwm on a sell @. 104.58. minimum target 99.73 . Getting Long TWM 15.38. QQQ gave me the short last Thurs @ $ 75.52. All the stock indices don’t top at once. Starting to get more short oil through SCO. Spx/wti correlation revealing top this week in both.

    GROUND CONTROL TO MAJOR 4???????? Think we start to see weakness now.Let you know when Spx hits.
    Peace

  13. Tony, good morning. I have been away for a little while, would you mind catching up to speed?Where are we and where do you think we are going? Thank you.

  14. gauravsuri17 says:

    Tony gold near 1340 is it close to a short term top thanx

  15. jackkendo1987 says:

    Tony,
    “iii /3″ still is progressing?
    Why is iv/3 at 1684 ?
    1684″ is 9 points pull back from 1693, less than the 13 points pull back from 1684 to 1672.

  16. blackjak100 says:

    1.382 extension for Minor 3 hit almost to penny. Lets see if we extend to 1.5.

  17. The story of this bull market – Shorts keep shorting and covering at higher levels to short again at lower levels. Longs keep getting off to get on board at higher levels again. No wonder this is the most hated bull.

    • rc1269 says:

      seems mathematically impossible to me, given rising prices
      if longs really did keep getting out we’d have a flat mkt. IMO

      • That’s called chasing higher. Not everyone is getting in and getting out at the same time. Nothing is in black and white like mathematics when it comes to the market.

      • rc1269 says:

        “Not everyone is getting in and getting out at the same time.”
        aside from primary market activity, if you’ve figured out a way to buy a stock without simultaneously having somebody sell it i’d be really interested to learn how

      • Don’t have the time and energy to engage in never ending conversations. No clue why you ask what you ask?

      • rc1269 says:

        my apologies for wasting your time asking for an explanation on your broad sweeping market comments. i’ll just take it at face value

    • fbender7 says:

      Ted – Appreciate your solid EW perspective and cautionary stance on shorting the market as the SPX approaches 1700. Thanks for sharing your video and best of good fortune to you.

  18. H D says:

    GM all, 1695. amazing actually to think SPX just shy of 1700. No HH on DOW this morn though.

  19. jackkendo1987 says:

    Tony Thanks
    You changed the labels by one degree more bullish?
    “3” was at 1684, “4” was at 1672.
    Now “iii /3 at 1693″, “iv/3 at 1684″?
    And looking for “v/3″ above 1700?
    Then 9/13 points down for “4”?
    Then “5” to above 1699 pivot?

  20. mkmason2013 says:

    To: wcagle
    Gold looks great, Lady! My congrats to You. My short is doing well also.
    How about that Phil Mic?! That was wonderful! M

    • wcagle says:

      Phil Mickelson is one class act and does so much for those in need….mostly in secret too. That’s why I think he is receiving blessings from above!

  21. mike7x says:

    Got gold? COMEX gold continues to drop with registered gold inventories hitting their lowest levels ever. Additionally, total COMEX gold has now dropped under 7 million total ounces, or by almost 40%, since the beginning of the year (it started 2013 with around 11 million total ounces).

    Shoooort squeeze?

  22. The charts that are posted on the site don’t reveal enough detail to examine major 1 down to the minor wave level. Aside from that, is there a reason why the pattern that occurred at the end of major 1 should repeat at the end of major wave 3?

  23. ISINCODE says:

    Hi everyone !

    I would just like to say I have had the privilege of following Tony’s blog for over a year and most recently becoming a student. The tutoring is living up to my expectations as it is providing the clarity I needed to understand the fundamentals which many of you are masters of. I would say that the education is great but without the debates and different views that can be observed here on a daily if not hourly basis is priceless! For that I am grateful for the regulars who post here and hope to contribute in a meaningful way once I become proficient. Ah heck, I might send in a zinger once in awhile if I see it getting boring.

    Just for the record, I am paying close attention to the structure of int. v of Major 1 as it looks similar to what is forming here. (mentioned in several posts) As I recall, this was a time when QE3 was still in 5th gear and we had just voted for the spending cuts plus we had North Korea, Europe, etc.. didn’t do much to stop the markets. So with the inflows coming in from the emerging markets and from the “Great” rotation out of bonds into equities it doesn’t appear that there is much to stop this train. The counts and timetables from int v, major 1 and this current wave structure seem to similar to ignore. IMHO.

    Weekends are great but I love Monday morning !

    GL to all

  24. Anyone else see a reverse cup with handle taking shape in AAPL on the daily?

  25. torehund says:

    Hard commodities has rallied nicely during the weekend, hoping asia will fire it up further ! Looksas if crude is in a good mood too,and why should it not as Shanghai has put in a bottom. Even iron ore is rallying !

    • torehund says:

      I gave bulk 2 weeks one week ago, one more week waiting for the grand fire ! Good weekend to all on Board, this will be a funny week (in absence of the funny man, lol)

    • CB says:

      “even iron ore is rallying”…” and why should it not as Shanghai has put in a bottom” haha, well said TH!

      Thanks Tony!

  26. Tony, Could you shed some light on where you see COMPQ after Friday’s drop? Would you call it a minor 4, something else, or is too soon to tell? Thanks.

  27. Erka11 says:

    Hi Tony,
    When looking at the daily chart of the SPX where the pivots lines are showing, one can see that Int I, Int II, Minor 1, 2, 3 and 4 of Int. III, Minor a and Minor b of Int. IV don’t coincide with a pivot level +/- 7 pts. From what can be observed on the chart, only Minor 5 of Int. III and Minor c of Int. IV could still barely be considered to have stopped within 8 pts of a pivot level.
    Hardly conclusive to say the least !
    Since you don’t indicate pivots on longer time charts, I cannot check if they coincide with turning points of waves of larger degree, such as Major and above.
    Do you consider your pivots to be relevant turning points for waves of all degrees or only for waves starting at some higher degree such as Major and above ?
    Furthermore, considering my above observation, why do you give such importance to pivots points when they seem to be so randomly reliable, therefore unreliable, a conclusion that can be easily verified when observing your current charts.

    • mkmason2013 says:

      “Do you consider your pivots to be relevant turning points for waves of all degrees or only for waves starting at some higher degree such as Major and above ?”

      That’s a good question. I’ll look back through the Tutoring Plan when I can, but hope Tony will answer before that time. M

    • tony caldaro says:

      Erka,
      They are important at trend turning points.
      We all use them, even for trading.
      They are relevant.

      • Erka11 says:

        And of course “trend turning points” can be at any degree of wave, probably from Minor and above !
        I have got to hand it to you Tony, you are the master at replying to posts without actually answering the questions which are asked ;)
        As for the relevancy of pivots, you probably have many more data points to back up your opinion. I still maintain that based on what is shown on your current SPX daily chart, the relevance of pivots level is totally inconclusive.

  28. Erka11 says:

    I am referring to Tradesmart’s comment below concerning why Tony considers his two scenario to have equal 50% likehood and the subsequent exchange with NO.
    First of all, I think Tradesmart’s comment is perfectly valid as SPX has closed 1 point away from the 1693 threshold mentioned by Tony. It seems therefore quite likely that this level will be reached and passed with a probability much higher than 50%, unless Major 4 starts right away and never looks back.
    It’s not because Int. V of Major 1 in the DOW happened to barely move past Int. III that it should repeat itself now. Basing a count on ONE single past occurrence is hardly acceptable.
    But what I find more interesting is the constant need for bloggers to be offended and come to Tony’s rescue when someone dares post a comment which disagrees with his view.
    Come on people, it’s not because Tony is hosting this blog and posting his analysis for free that one has to walk on eggshells when challenging his views ! Plus, as he has proven in the past, he is perfectly able to fight his own battles if need be.

    • I don’t think 1693 is a magic number that if price goes one point past it then we know for certain what happens next with certainty. The market could easily gap up and put in a top tomorrow. Why not? I think we will learn a lot more from what happens immediately after it goes above 1693 than we would before then.

      • budfox9450 says:

        The Nasdaq and NDX markets – may have given a sell signal,
        with the decline last Friday. Don’t think we can set aside
        the Nasdaq market so quickly…IMO

      • mkmason2013 says:

        Thanks Bud. Is this from your BOYU indicator? M

      • I agree Bud. I am watching the Nasdaq closely to see if it has signaled a top, which of course doesn’t mean SPX has topped at just this moment. So far the Nasdaq pullback looks corrective to me on the 5 min chart not impulsive. It’s still early. Some attempt to fill the gap seems likely. The thing with the Nasdaq is some of it’s biggest names are really starting to drag on it. It’ll take a lot of smaller companies to overrule the moves of MSFT, GOOG, and AAPL. I’m actually tempted to initiate a short position on GOOG, but will wait a little longer. Could be a major top for tech. Maybe it was the next sector to top out for the bull market? Seems to me shorting QQQ might be a better place to be than SPY’s Major 4 drop.

    • mkmason2013 says:

      Erka, I think your post deserves a response, and I think my points are as valid as yours, Tradesmart’s, or anyone else’s.

      “First of all, I think Tradesmart’s comment is perfectly valid as SPX has closed 1 point away from the 1693 threshold mentioned by Tony. It seems therefore quite likely that this level will be reached and passed with a probability much higher than 50%, unless Major 4 starts right away and never looks back.”

      For the record, I think Tradesmart’s comment is valid also. However, how would you have known with a bit more or less certainty 48 hours ago that the probability might be much higher than 50% that spx would exceed 1693? Looking at the time stamp on your blog makes it perhaps not as noteworthy as it would have been, say, yesterday or Friday after markets closed.

      “It’s not because Int. V of Major 1 in the DOW happened to barely move past Int. III that it should repeat itself now. Basing a count on ONE single past occurrence is hardly acceptable.”

      Oh really? And this is based on your extensive experience? Tony Caldaro has one of the best technical records I’ve ever seen, and perhaps his concern was based on previous experience over decades of dealing with markets. If he’s concerned about a POSSIBLE scenario, I want to know about it; right, wrong, or indifferent. I think it must be difficult to impart ones’ experience on a blog, so he did what he thought was necessary to help avoid loss. I am grateful. 50%, 40%, 70%, fine; give it 25%, I’d still want to know about it, and wouldn’t be so concerned with the percentage, as the possibility itself.

      “But what I find more interesting is the constant need for bloggers to be offended and come to Tony’s rescue when someone dares post a comment which disagrees with his view.
      Come on people, it’s not because Tony is hosting this blog and posting his analysis for free that one has to walk on eggshells when challenging his views ! Plus, as he has proven in the past, he is perfectly able to fight his own battles if need be.”

      I absolutely agree 100%! As an old man I knew as a young girl would say, “He’s full growed and can take his lickin’s”. Tradesmart did nothing wrong in challenging Tony’s assertions. I think his straight-forward response likely struck a cultural nerve, as there are bloggers here from all over the world; or perhaps you’re right, and some bloggers have other motives, I don’t know and don’t care about that. I’m over-the-top myself, so I don’t really have a problem with tradesmart’s response, but am told I need to practice being more tactful, so I gave it a shot… I found it tiring, but will continue to practice anyway.

      M

      • Erka11 says:

        Hi MK, the timestamp is irrelevant. The fact that Tony assigns a 50% probability to a scenario based on ONE past occurrence is just startling. Even more so when this scenario is so close to be invalidated with SPX being almost at the threshold level of 1693 Tony has mentioned.
        I am not challenging the fact that Tony’s past experience makes him an expert and dependable technical analyst, on the contrary. I am just amazed sometimes at what he uses to justify his calls. It’s not the first time I have seen Tony use a technical configuration or an historical price pattern that only happened 2 or 3 times in the past to justify choosing a wave count over another one. I just think that using such few occurrences to justify something is statistically wrong.
        Now the fact that Tony has been right much more often than wrong even using statistically insignificant data proves that beyond his obvious skills, he is also helped by his phenomenal intuitive mind. As I have said several times, some of Tony’s calls are so uncanny that they must be borne more from supernatural forces than from technical analysis ;)

      • FWIW –
        tradesmart321 says:
        July 18, 2013 at 7:45 am
        With the option 3 Tony has just given those who are eager to short, a reason to short. Interesting that majority wants to pick a spot to short rather than pick a spot to get long in this bull market. FWIW, I give 0% chance to option 3. 90% chance to option 2 and 10% to option 1.

        With all due respect Tony has been wrong on timing many a times. Be it the broader market or individual sectors. And there is nothing wrong with it. This only shows that market is supreme. Analyzing and trading the market are not one and the same thing. I respect Tony but is his word a gospel for me when it comes to the market? No.

        There is a thing called intuition that no chart can replace when it comes to the market. One doesn’t need decades of experience to develop the intuition. Some can get it quickly and some will spend a life time in the market and still won’t get it.

        M, if you are basing your analysis based on how Int V of Major 1 behaved then it’s naive. At any point there are n number of moving parts to the market. Do you recall how each and every moving part was behaving back then? Do you recall how breadth looked at that point? Do you recall how various sectors were behaving at that point? Do you recall how VIX was oriented at that point?

        My bone of contention was only 1 thing. Why did Tony introduce Major 3 may be done as an option out of the blue one fine evening? If Tony had said it was based on his intuition then I would not argue 1 bit. If he says it’s based on some technical facts then I just want to know them.

    • No says:

      Erka11- it seems you took my comments very wrong
      1- it’s not about different views but how you express them
      2- TS can present his views/counts all he wants, but it didn’t help much without giving any specific “rational” view & just kept saying a perfectly logical scenario (in my view anyway) as “arbitary” & “no need” to be presented based on who-knows-what his “technical rational” was, regardless strong technical evidences being presented by others pointing otherwise… and no, I wasn’t offended at all just wanted to remind him of the simple fact that others may see what he doesn’t??? not sure how that evoked your feeling of walking eggshells & seeing Tony being rescued??;-)
      3- we all have opinions & would express them from time to time, please do not confuse my opinions with “defense” just because they are different from yours.
      IMO, Tony needs no body to defend him. Apparently, you do not recognize or appreciate the fact that his own deeds tell far better about who he is than any “defense” anyone could ever offer. It sounds weird to me you “find more interesting is the constant need for bloggers to be offended and come to Tony’s rescue when someone dares post a comment which disagrees with his view. ” while I see people often have different views (myself included) & have no problem disagreeing with Tony, respectfully… if you are the one who feels like walking on eggshells whenever you present a different view then you need to ask yourself why????? all the best to you.

      • Erka11 says:

        I know it’s always about the way people express their contrary view and their alleged lack of respect to Tony that makes other bloggers jumpy on this board. But you got to admit that sometimes it seems that merely expressing a different view or challenging Tony’s explanation, or sometime lack of it, is in itself considered disrespectful !
        Because of that I note that when people are challenging or questioning Tony’s message, they feel the need to walk on eggshells when expressing themselves so as not to be exposed to the wrath of die-hard Tony’s defenders.
        We are all human after all and subject to emotions. You have to understand that the tone we may use can appear to be aggressive at times but it only comes from sheer frustration as opposed to deliberate attempt at being disrespectful.
        For my part, you can refer to my post history and see I don’t mince my words and that I keep pushing to get an answer from Tony who sometimes just won’t do it. As a result, I have received some unwarranted and violent replies from some bloggers.
        Best to you too.

      • No says:

        “But you got to admit that sometimes it seems that merely expressing a different view or challenging Tony’s explanation, or sometime lack of it, is in itself considered disrespectful !”, definitely not what I’ve experienced here… it reminds me of a joke (please don’t be offended;)

        As a senior citizen was driving down the freeway, his car phone rang. Answering, he heard his wife’s voice urgently warning him, “Herman, I just heard on the news that
        there’s a crazy driver going the wrong way on 260. Please be careful!”

        “Hell,” said Herman, “It’s not just one crazy driver. It’s hundreds of them!”

      • mkmason2013 says:

        I don’t think Tony minds a “challenge” at all. IMO. M

    • mmmiiikkkeee says:

      Erka, A quick note to say I have read here for quite a while and agree with your post from 5:02 this morning. A good while ago,you tried to draw out Tony on the idea of objective confirmation and got delphic replies (imo) in return when he could have suggested you avail yourself of his tutoring (if the questions you put to him are answered there) or merely said the answer includes concepts that are proprietary. To have the commenter No attack you with her amusing joke was frustrating to me as she hasn’t been here long enough to remember your efforts to, as I phrased it some lines above, draw out Tony. Imo you were driving in the right direction then.

  29. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Another very appreciated market review. I see your 50% probability scenario as a cautionary statement. When at inflection points of indecision, cash is the simplest choice for me. Direction soon will be clear. ;-)
    Enjoy

  30. budfox9450 says:

    Have nice weekend….

  31. CygnetNoir says:

    100 comments and it is only Sunday morning … looks like the market isn’t the only bull market in town!

  32. pas1968 says:

    I see PUGs recent update has the S&P in Major 5 (& nearing his P3 high target 1738), whereas Tony is in Major 3.

    I’m not EW expert & wondering if both can be correct Re Major 5 Vs Major 3?

    Looks like PUG thinks P3 is soon coming to an end;
    http://pugsma.wordpress.com/longer-term-sp-500-view/

    Cheers

  33. Anonymous says:

    You guys see the news about JP MORGAN GOLD VAULT ON FIRE TODAY WOW.

    See live video here => http://bit.ly/15W4tF3

    The comment on the video was classic. “GUESS WHAT! – All the gold that wasn’t there, has now burned up! Good thing it was insured…”

    WOW, the corruption in the financial world is just insane. WHAT NEXT!?

    • torehund says:

      …told you, no gold left..fight for the remaining nuggets, lol. Brewing up to a storm…MANIA !

    • tommyboys says:

      Gold my melt but it would still be there! Not even sure what there is in a gold vault that’s flammable…? They won’t be able to claim anything other than reconfiguring proportions – IF that. Ridiculous.

    • mkmason2013 says:

      Thanks fionamargaret. You’re a mind-reader! I was just talking about this with someone not one minute ago! I truly hope gas doesn’t soar in price again.

      Have a great weekend! M

  34. torehund says:

    folks here are getting heavily tilted to bearishness although there isnt much substrate for it, cheere up its rally time !

    • mkmason2013 says:

      torehund, I’m not sure I agree with your perceived tilt to the bearish side here on the site. After reading most of the blogs, it seems many are figuring Major 3 to end well over 1700. GL to You! M

  35. $SPX $SPY $UVXY $NUGT roadmap for monday: http://standardpoor.wordpress.com

  36. torehund says:

    looking at the NAS Count there are only 2 completed Waves of this major 3. So one should expect 3rd of third to start on this index. That fits With my spx projection too.

  37. After reading my post, I realize that I did quite clearly state that under the “washed out” minor wave 5 scenario, Tony would had to have accepted the 1685-1672 decline as minor wave 4 “flat” correction which alternated with the minor wave 2 (1627-1605) deep correction.

  38. hucky2 says:

    As some of you know I am expecting a (minor) ‘Magic’ reversal to occur very soon. Friday’s low start day is not really enough to satisfy that.

    A more significant reversal is due around the 13th August – it should be produce at least a few significant down days.

    Also around August 1st is a possible minor pullback.

    • hucky2 says:

      Just to clarify – if the trend prior to 13th Aug is already down, we should get a strong reversal up around that date.

      • No says:

        Thanks Hucky… since the trend has been up for weeks it seems to be reasonable to assume this reversal is going to be downside… minor 4 comes to mind.

  39. “The pullback that followed, however, was smaller than the 20+ points expected for a Minor wave 4 (1685-1672). The pullback that followed, however, was smaller than the 20+ points expected for a Minor wave 4 (1685-1672).”

    This quote from your Weekend Update would seem to carry an interpretation which you only tentatively believe. I say this because there is no other corrective move in the last 2 weeks which was even that deep, and so nothing could reasonably considered deep enough to be an alternative minor wave 4.
    For that reason I am puzzled as to how you can write of the possible early termination of minor wave 5 when there has not even been a point at which you have clearly said that minor wave 5 had even begun!
    If we are still in minor wave 3, it most likely would imply that the 1685-1672 decline was minute wave 4 and that we are in minute wave 5 of minor 3. Under a very strong minor wave 3 scenario, the 1685-1672 pullback might be considered a minuet wave of minute 3, and thus we could still be in minute 3 of minor 3.
    What I really can’t see is where we ever clearly had a minor 4 and initiated a minor 5. For minor 5 to end prematurely, it at least had to have started somewhere!

  40. Greg Polites says:

    Hi Tony; Thank you for your excellent, continued, and expanding efforts to analyze the markets! From the indicators I use (see: http://hgpolites3.wordpress.com/) part of today’s post explains how we expect to see the SP1779 pivot in August from current indicators (hope it comes through)!

    For now all three indexes (SP500, Dow, Transports) are aligned with overbought conditions that have generated a failed sell signal and which forecasts a minor pull back to be followed by new highs before any new sell signal can emerge. We’ve shadowed the similar areas to the May top on the SP500 and Dow charts for comparisons (http://stockcharts.com/public/1136407/tenpp). Referring to OEW discussion of two possible outcomes ( see: http://caldaro.wordpress.com/) , we believe the STORMM indicators suggest a top in August around the SP1779 pivot.This further upside projection is also supported by the recent failure of a VIX (VXX) buy signal and the recent buy signal from the R. Walker indicators.

  41. TommyB says:

    Thanks for your efforts T!
    When the bull market completes in the Winter/Spring timeframe, how long do you expect the bear market to last?

  42. Sorry for the carry-over, but I managed to post this on the Friday update… (I need more coffee!?)

    “Thanks for the update Tony! May i ask a personal/trading question. What wave-degree do you trade? Minute, minor, int. med? Etc? Or just trade good set-ups (e.g. day trading?). I understand if it is a hard question to answer.”

    “NYSE count weekend update: http://soulsurferusa.wordpress.com/2013/07/20/nyse-update-07202012-still-in-minor-3-of-int-med-v/
    Strongly suggests market is still in minor 3.”

  43. Tony,
    I’m thinking it through more. Seems like either way we look at it there is probably a pullback coming shortly of at least 20-25 points. So, going long here makes no sense as there will be a better entry soon most likely. If that is the case then the question will more likely be whether the market keeps going down after that 20-25 point drop or whether it doesn’t. All sorts of scenarios present themselves at that point. Could be a march higher to new highs, or a fifth wave failure like int iii. Or straight down. That doesn’t strike me as likely at this moment without a catalyst.

    If Thursday’s high is exceeded, what would be the target area for minute v? 1699ish?

    • glacialspeed says:

      I was thinking along the same lines when Tony first presented three options a couple of days ago. If we are extending, people on this blog have presented pretty good arguments for a top of minor 3 anywhere from 1699-1724. If you assume a drop of 20+ points from there for minor 4, you are better to wait for that entry point regardless of what that number is precisely. It just seems safer and still leaves a nice run up into the 1770s.

      Either way we should know soon and Tony has defined the probabilities with a pretty tight range. Above 1693 points toward extension. Below 1672 points toward Major 4. (At least that’s a relatively tight range for my kind of trading. Compared to the torrent of day trading some of you excel at, my pace is indeed glacial.)

      While I’m here, and as I don’t post often, let me say thanks to those of you who take the time to explain how they set their targets — starting of course with Tony.

  44. Igor says:

    Thanks Tony!
    If I have to choose, I would prefer the DOW scenario. The recent positive breadth surge in my Sector BPI Model implies some follow-through to the upside. Over the last two weeks 5 market sectors switched to buy mode. During this bull market such an action didn’t mark a meaningful top immediately. Here is the sector rotation map from 2012:
    http://www.flickr.com/photos/77921774@N02/9329388886/

  45. 7dayyss says:

    Thanks Tony and all the regulars. I would think 1693 by Tuesday’s close one way or the other. They seem like pivotal days anymore. The longer 93 isn’t broke, even in a tight range, favors major 3 being over?

  46. mccarthyti says:

    $117 eps for S&P 500 12m forward. just so hard to see where they get that considering commentary from Q2 reports looking forwards to second half of year. I see market starting to put in a top. What i see is something like the 2000 high which was march to sept for the dow30, in early sept being the last high before we broke lower.

    I don’t know what will happen with QE but I am starting to think the more reserves used by fed to buy assets for balance sheet the less money banks have to lend. this is why inflation is continuing to slow. it might just be an unintended consequence of QE. as banks take money back from reserve with FED they will either buy assets or create assets for themselves (create loans). could be nothing, could be the beginning of a great new era of economic growth for us.

  47. pio27 says:

    MR C
    Forgive the dumb question but basically its looks like nothing will stop this market in its tracks. Even if we get a wave 4 pull back it does not really do any damage? We are still on target for mid 1700’s no matter what even if we pull back 20 points?

  48. bouraq says:

    Weekend post on SPX, GBPUSD and EURUSD. 2 charts from another blogger is useful to see where we are in the big picture. Have a great weekend.
    http://www.tradingchannels.co.uk/2013/07/weekend-post_20.html

    • No says:

      thanks Bouraq! interesting charts, totally agree the pattern & many indicators look eerily similar to 2011 top as Valunvstr pointed out a few times, and your 1724 target coincides with the projection of minor 5/major 3 if I use ariez’s numbers below:
      1684.51 Minor 3
      1671.84 Minor 4
      1693.12 minute i of Minor 5,
      1684.08 minute ii of Minor 5,
      1718.5 minute iii projected, where minute 3=1.618x minute1
      1705 minute iv projected, at 38.1% retracement
      1726 minute v projected, where (minute v = minute i) & (minor 5 = .8x minor 1) & (Int V = .8x Inv I)

      ok, I hear you say 1724- why don’t we settle for 1725?:-)

      • bouraq says:

        Ok No so be it: 1725 :D I’m sitting on the sides waiting for a turn down. Not interested in these last, expensive ticks. :)

      • No says:

        thanks Bouraq… good to have this all decided;-) & I’ll try to stay sidelines too, or start to short at 1724;-)

    • mkmason2013 says:

      bouraq, thx for charts. I have no higher than 1710, but I’m not an expert waver, so there you have it. GL All! M

  49. pooch77 says:

    With G20 meeting Saturday and eom buying hoping we see 1710-40 this week

    • mkmason2013 says:

      Hi pooch, EOM not until week after this upcoming one. This coming Monday is 7/22. Hope there’s no hassle w/G20. Maybe if they play nice, we get extra points. M

  50. No says:

    Thanks Tony for the great analysis & sharing it all with us so generously.
    One question: if it fails to clear 1693, I’d assume minor 3 would still be well & alive, as the pullback that follows could be minor 4- as long as 1649 (50% retrace of minor 3) holds. indeed, minor 3 scenario can not be completely thrown out of the window unless we see 20+ pts down… as such I’m a bit confused when you say “If it fails to clear SPX 1693, then the count posted on the SPX charts… becomes the probable count”.
    have a nice weekend to you & all.

    • tony caldaro says:

      No
      The current situation is this:
      We have Minor 1 and 2 completed.
      Then we have seven waves up to 1693.
      These seven waves can be counted as:
      3-4-5 to end Int. V or
      i-ii-1-2-3-4-iii of Minor 3

      • Thanks Tony.

        Question: To clarify, if the market reverses right here, we actually would start major 4, embarking on a 10 percent or more decline. Or, we’re extending 87-ish more points?

        Thus, we should be long, with a stop below 1680 pivot, and a profit target much higher?

      • tony caldaro says:

        POM
        If we drop from here below 1672 we are probably heading much lower.
        There are no guarantees on the upside target

      • No says:

        Tony- I agree with you in entirety. The confusion lies in my understanding of your statement “If it fails to clear SPX 1693″- you probably mean “if we see 1626 first before we see 1694″ (which I agree) but I read it as “if it turns around from here (maybe for a 20-40pt pullback) in the next few sessions then more likely Int V is done”.

      • No says:

        ^^1626==>1627.06

  51. wcagle says:

    Thanks Tony! I have a question about the int iv at the June 24 being 1 point short of the 1552-1559 pivot. Could the int iv be unfolding with an A-B-C….the June low being A…1693 being B, with C to follow to 1525 area? I know you’ve said before you didn’t see it, but I thought iv’s are notoriously zigzag’s….

    Also I’ve heard predictions about what the % gain will be for 2013, ranging from 15% to 22%. Where do you think we will end the year. Last year was 13%…we are already up 18% so I would think we are ripe for that correction.

    • tony caldaro says:

      WC
      That count would have to be either an irregular flat or zigzag.
      Since there have not been any irregular waves of that degree during this bull market.
      Think it has a very low probably.
      Hard to say where we will end the year.
      Not possible for me to make such projections.

    • wcagle says:

      Also int iv would look more like an alternate. As it is now, to me, it looks almost like the ii….

  52. justinfo25 says:

    Thank You Tony!

  53. gokalg says:

    Tony, Thanks for providing both options. It is time to exercise caution. Since ES futures already exceeded previous high and SPX is within 1 point, I think we are still in minor3. minor 4pull back about 25 points to 1675 by next week and then mior5=minor1 takes it to about 1750 area

  54. Tony, when you say “Currently, we would put the probabilities for the two scenarios at 50-50″.

    With a point to go and negate the major 3 done scenario, you still say 50-50. At one place you say this can’t be minor 5 because 20+ point pull back requirement for a minor 4 hasn’t been satisfied. And yet you have a 50% scenario that major 3 may be done.

    With all due respect, I some times do not understand why you bring more scenarios into the equation so arbitrarily?There was no need to bring the major 3 done scenario at this point when technically there has not been any justification for it right now. I am all ears if you can give any technical reasons for it.

    Anyways this is all besides the point, we can have our disagreements from time to time. Thanks for giving these updates so selflessly every single day.

    • No says:

      I see both scenarios valid as Tony clearly stated…. frankly, your comments sound to me you have a tendency to see only what you like to see, & “no need” to see whatever may not be in agreement with your view… 20+ point pull back for minor 4 would be nice, but not an absolute requirement as far as I understand.

      • You can’t be more wrong. Any scenario that is not backed by a technical rational is arbitrary in my view. Last weekend 1779 was on table. Mid week major 3 may be done and by coming Monday we still in minor 3 will be on table. That is too much of indecision. I am totally fine with indecision when there is reason for that. Right now I do not see any reason and hence the curiosity on what Tony is seeing?

    • tony caldaro says:

      TS
      Take a look at Int. wave V of Major wave 1 in the DOW.
      Do you see what I see?

      • mkmason2013 says:

        Well, if TS doesn’t see it, I sure do! M

      • Frankly I don’t see anything unless you are referring to RSI.

      • No says:

        TS, as other posters pointed out with their charts, technically the current chart appears to be very similar to 2011 top so I don’t understand why you keep saying this isn’t a valid possibility. But at any rate, I hope you’d accept the possibility that other people may be able to see things you can’t, as such I consider your statement below unfair-
        “why you bring more scenarios into the equation so arbitrarily?There was no need to bring the major 3 done scenario at this point when technically there has not been any justification for it right now.”

      • mkmason2013 says:

        Hi TS,

        Take a look at the Weekly & Monthly DOW charts Tony has posted. Look at the similarity in the PATTERN of Int 5 of Major 1, then, take a look at Major 3 wave, esp. the top of Int. 3 and where we are now. Compare with Major 1. int. 3 and 5. Nobody can ever be absolutely sure, but the similarities are compelling to me. If they aren’t compelling to you, that’s okay, but FWIW, out of caution, I’m considering the present position of DOW as Minor 5. If it proves itself not to be so, then, I’ll hop on long, but not until then. GL to You! M

    • fbender7 says:

      Major 3 does indeed look eerily similar to Major 1 in how it has unfolded. If the pattern holds, then we would be right at the end of Major 3 now. As always, we shall see.

  55. I like blackjak’s scenario.

  56. blackjak100 says:

    Thank you again Tony for your amazing service and blog! If minor 3 is extending, do you still expect a minor 3 top at 1699 pivot? I sill like the Minor 3 top at 1696-1697 (1.382*1) followed by a retrace to 1660-1661 for Minor 4 low. If this happens and 5=1 at 1727ish, I’m confused how you still expect 1779 pivot for uptrend high?

    • No says:

      Hi BlackJak, if w3 =1.382xw1, then w5 can extend to anywhere, say 1.62x & it’d put w5 to 1768 (assuming w4 retrace to 1660 as you stated)

      • blackjak100 says:

        I understand that, but then the question becomes how do you now Minor 5 is going to extend based on where Minor 3 ends which is basically what Tony is alluding to.

      • blackjak100 says:

        I guess I just don’t see a 1779 top in Aug as that puts us way above the regression channel going back to start of bull market. 1725-1735ish in Aug makes a lot of sense based on this chart which I’ve attached the linke.

        http://www.tradestation.com/en/education/labs/blog/articles/sp-500-regression-channel-analysis

      • No says:

        As far as I understand (as Tony’s said before) when the market clears up a pivot, it moves to the next… which is how the 1779 comes into the picture (which also meets wiii=1.62xwi). It may not get there for Major 3, just the next target on the card. we are right at the upper boundary of the regression channel you mentioned right now so the scenario of major 3 finishing around here – as Tony’s been presenting it- seems very reasonable technically.

    • tony caldaro says:

      BJ
      Expected Minor 3 to top at the 1680 pivot range.
      Should it top higher it is extending.
      There are several technical reasons to think if the uptrend extends into August it will probably reach the 1779 pivot range.
      These reasons have to do with Fibonacci relationships, for the entire bull market. And QE 3.

  57. mkmason2013 says:

    Thank you, Tony. You’ve blazed the 2 possible paths for me to watch, and I will watch them carefully. This blog is an incredible benefit to all. Your OEW Tutoring changed my trading for the better immediately; and the lessons are easily affordable! My on-going thanks to you, Tony. M

  58. liborval says:

    Hi Tony, in one of your last updates you said that the uptrends last usually 1-2 months, but the last one last 7 months (november – may). is it possible that this one can last 6 months or more too. dont forget the QE.

  59. Thank you Tony. I am leaning now toward this being v of 3. 1699 then 1680 for Minor 4 sound reasonable?

    • tony caldaro says:

      market finished quite close to doing just that … reasonable

      • There is so much indecision here. I think it may be most reasonable to just get out and wait for either a lower low to confirm a move down from an int v top or a higher high to confirm minor v is still ahead. Not much advantage here.

  60. M1 says:

    Thx, Tony.
    Should this bullmarket last less than five years how would be the right count ?

  61. Good Morning Tony,

    I follow you, except when you say that a further advance would be considered to still be part of Minor 3. Why is that more likely than the idea that we are in Minor 5, as follows?
    1684.51 Minor 3
    1671.84 Minor 4
    1693.12 Minor 5, minute 1
    1684.08 Minor 5, minute 2
    Minor 5, minute 3 ongoing, with projected Minor 5 high near 1730-1740 (where Minor 5=Minor 1)

    Thank you -

  62. Pingback: Risk-Reward Report – week 29 | The Risk-Reward Report

  63. davidmlamos says:

    I confess. I too am addicted to this blog. Thanks for all you do Tony. Have a great weekend.

  64. Thanks, Tony. Time to stay in cash and wait for next move … your analysis saves us all. Have a very nice weekend. Now that I have had my “Tony weekend fix”, I can get on with the day.

  65. rolandu11 says:

    Was this the top? My indicators are say not yet. In an uptrend my mid-term volume indi goes to a buy signal normally at least 2 times overbought just like my special momentum indicator (After the second last buy signal this happened even 7 times). Until now, my momentum indicator was not yet overbought (indicator below in blue) and my mid-term volume indi once only (for now). One of my overheating indicators (pink indicator) also still shows no overheating, however, it requires not much more to it.
    Sorry, the post is not accepted with link

  66. oneandonlyuniverse says:

    Mr.T,
    Thank you for this update.
    Om shanti

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