SHORT TERM: quiet consolidation day, DOW +33
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.4%. European opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 340K vs 344K, and the Trade deficit expanded: -$44.4 bln vs -$38.5 bln. The market opened two points above yesterday’s SPX 1541 close. At 9:30 FED governor Powell’s testimony: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/powell20130307a.htm. Then after a pop to the uptrend high at SPX 1545 the market dipped to 1542 by 10:00. The market then ground its way higher to a new uptrend high at SPX 1546 by 12:00. Flow of Funds were reported: http://www.federalreserve.gov/Releases/Z1/Current/default.htm. Then the market started to drift lower. At 2:00 the SPX hit 1542 again then moved higher. At 3:00 Consumer credit was reported higher: $16.2 bln vs $14.6 bln. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1546 again by 3:30, then closed at 1544.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.25%. Bonds lost 15 ticks, Crude rallied $1.10, Gold dropped $5, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the SPX 1523 and 1499 pivots, with resistance at the 1552 and 1576 pivots. Tomorrow: the monthly Payrolls report at 8:30 then Wholesale inventories at 10:00. After the market closes there is a speech from FED governor Duke at 8:00.
The market opened higher today, but spent the day in a tight four point range: SPX 1542-1546. It did make a new uptrend high, but there did not appear to be any great interest, either way, with the monthly Payrolls report tomorrow. The negative short term divergence, we observed after the close yesterday, remains. The count remains Minute i SPX 1525, Minute ii SPX 1501 and Minute iii SPX 1546 so far. We uncovered a series of time and price relationships for the market longer term. It offers a potential roadmap through 2014. Will report on this in the weekend update.
Short term support is at the 1523 and 1499 pivots, with resistance at the 1552 and 1576 pivots. Short term momentum displays a negative divergence. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1529. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
SP has had a great run. (iii) is cresting. Time for a corrective pattern, and rest
for this weekend. Anyone, going short?
Should say – crested…3:56pm edt
bud, I’m a bit paranoid of shorting, as the close was at the high for the day. M
nibbled a bit near the close
Ah, I feel a little better now…Thanks Tony. M
nibbled long or short?
short … keep in mind I’m thinking medium term
definitely not a day trader =)
cool beans. thanks my man and GL!
and i hear ya – i can’t day trade either. i blame it on having a day job but not sure i’d be any good at it anyway.
ok, got a smidge of uvxy in AH’s. Will see on Monday. Might have to drop. M
We are just a smidge outside of the upper BB(20,2,0) – but VIX has room to move to the down side
pb, what Vix does and what Vix etn’s do I’ve found can be very different things. Etn’s are high because everyone is expecting a downtrend. That’s why I’m a bit paranoid about shorting. M
spx 1600 by next wednesday!!
How do you know? M
it’s a very technical process i like to call eyeball extrapolation
or, it might have been a joke
Either is okay with me. M
To: Our Guru and generally RAD Leader – When do you think your Weekend Update will be posted? You don’t want a bunch of us to get in trouble with our Sig. Others because we can’t turn loose of your site, anxiously awaiting your news! LOL! M
I think today is the end of this wave/uptrend. Time for the IV…ending May 8th?
How do you know? M
Okay, I tried to draw it out of Our Fearless Leader…Didn’t work. Guess we’ll have to wait, like dawgs waiting for supper. Slobber, slobber. LOL! M
Time & price indicating the end of this uptrend and on a great NFP # which will probably be adjusted next month….lol. That # is an outlier imho, and insiders knew it was going to be good, thus buying into the rumor. Let’s see if this is a “sell the news” event….
Saturday AM, as usual
LOL! Okay, thanks Tony. You know there will be traders glued to the site awaiting it. M
SPX 1552 or 1576? Which pivot does the Uptrend end at? Or, can we go higher? SPX 1564 is the average of the two pivots. That’s my target. SPX 1564. (The waves may suggest different. We should find out in the Awesome Weekend Update.)
…worth some extra Saturday 20 pesos at this cafe to get that one…
Only 20?
Mike yes 20, not a whole lot and they dont have a time counter, and yes Roosters howling is included…Country living at its best.
Hi Tony, is Brazil close to confirming an unptrend today?
CB looks like more and more countries joins the uptrend camp, nice !
Maybe Tony has concluded 3s to eternity, lol.
Hey Tore, thanks. Yeah, ppl seem to love uptrends for some strange reason
..keep watching those big ocen waves and let us know what’s coming, OK? thanks.
CB, no not close
Thanks Tony! Great calls & thanks so much for all your help and being so generous with your time!
Have a great weekend everyone!
I have a hunch this is going to be one of those meandering 4th waves that makes you sea sick. Hope I’m wrong. M
that is, unless this iv wave only lasted 50 mins
Sounds good. “Make it so!” – Capt. Picard M
In small scale EW its easy to bee fooled by the dimensions of things, just like if one uses a magnifying glass looking closely at ones nails (for example), very close its almost impossible to tell if its a toe nail or a finger nail. But when things have resolved one sees the difference on a larger scale. Thats why its stressful to attempt comprehending smaller structures. So larger is better, let alone some aweful intermediate term mistakes. Tony is very good at separating all dimensions on his charting, and thats why he can predict down to smaller scale. But meeting trigger points where small roads crosses its always hard to tell which way on the small timeframes, so it isnt easy to day trade…and especially if one speculates in small cap stocks.
Melinda what I have come to after some years in the market is that one needs a solid backbone of conviction on a yearly basis and just stick to it no matter what the market does in the smaller timeframes. EW on a smaller scale gets more and more difficult as one gets down to the nano and pico waves. And throw into the equation individual stocks and one needs antacids… Concerns is the fuel that drives market like a depression is the sentiment delta that makes us feel happy and content when it lightens up. We all need tis delta thing in our lives to feel ALIVE, once struggeling and then we can appreciate rest and tranquility. If one summates all stocks and all human beeings we are much closer to the grave pessimism than to euphoria on a larger timeframe. As I have pointed out many stocks are still at the bottom of an aweful ABC down all the way back from 2000. And just a very few are closer to the peak than bottom like Apple. The energy problem that we have been struggeling with is now almost solved, and it was not so in year 2000 and in 2007. World is lean and mean and ready for a revenge, and a new round of prosperity will emerge. I dont need that Lamborghini, but in a few years from now it may be possible to drive one without beeing harassed, lol. Its all about collective consiousness and it swings on large scale between individuals, countries and the world as a whole unit.
torehund, may the future be all you have expounded upon and more! M
Good weekend to everyone at the forum, gap up this morning didnt sell off a lot, more juice to come when all these macd crossings play out on the smallcaps. Many shares are starting to work on a 3rd wave (appears to be). That could give a smooth sustained rise when they eventually all march together.
Hi torehund. I guess you’re back from vacation. It sounded really nice. Markets just doing their thing. Glad you’ve returned safely. M
Melinda I am still residing in Barra de la Cruz, planning to stay until 11 of June. And yes I feel that I am eschewing (sounds better than cheating, lol) society a whole lot by not contributing meaningfully. Its a tranquil place just a small village, with an empty beach attached to it. I can fully recommend the place if one can handle a simple living for a while.
So you’re still on vacation… You can’t quite vacat Tony’s site though; I understand, it’s in the blood. In my younger years, places like Barra de la Cruz were no problem for me and simple living. Nowadays, it gets a bit more involved. Go play while you can! M
And the big Hang Seng divergence is yet to play out, on a large scale THE rallly of all time could soon commence over there, hopefully also creating some inflation making other countries a little more competitive.
…and inflation in S Korea means inflated prices on rigs and ships too, making the latter players not having to write down valuations going forewards, and thats BULL.
little off topic, but in addition to the power of dollar appreciation (available tool to compress commodities), I think the alternatives like ethanol and solar will keep a lid on runaway oil prices, then there is nat gas that will also compress the price of oil as its historically cheap. In 2007 we had NO tools from keeping oil prices from running wild, and they did….
So before we will see a significant oil spike these altlernatives have to become more expensive. Thats why I think oil consumption could rise and not cause a lot of appreciation. That signals a possibility for renewed growth world wide.
Japan is now out of recession, next up is Europe.
M-sitting on a Batta@internet cafe just to check that things pan out as they should. Funny how selling exhaustion seems to be hitting the market. And thats understandable as more and more countries are bottoming out, it isnt great yet but boy do the world have lots of upside in the years to come. What we really have to do is buy and sit until a recession call is confirmed, and it could be way ahead in time. Looking at the USD to NOK it appears there is lots of room for the dollar to depreciate vs the NOK timewise 1-2 years, although the depreciation will not be significant. And the euro has heaps of upside once the markets focuses on German strength. And german strength will eventually fuel the surrounding countries in the EU.
Please help understand here… I am new and I see a lot of opinions posted (with some that “expect things to happen the next day” which never happens)
Whose opinion counts here (other than Tony’s)? Since I read lots of posts that Tony says “thank you” to, but they are all very, very wrong…
Whose posts really count… = Tony’s
Thanks!
Yes, I see some predicitions that are really against what I see and not sure who is the master and who is the student.. Last thing I want to do is to get more confused…
sir, we chat most the day long here. Whether or not one is wrong or the other is right, only market moves will tell. Yes, this is most definitely Tony’s turf. M
Lets see where we are: minute IV of Minor 3 of Intermediate 3…should we expect an end for Minor 3 around 1560´s…is that so?
Or within the 1552 pivot range if it goes up too quickly
Hi Tony (a.k.a awesome dude),
minute IV of Minor 3?? I thought we were in min iv of Minor 5 of Intermediate 3 (i.e. INT 3-Minor 5-min iv).
Are you planning to change your count of Minor waves?
Now in Minute iv of Minor 5 of the Int. iii uptrend.
One last pop to go by my count
Oh Thank God! Someone knows where I am, er.. it is..uh, what the wave count is. Thanks Tony. M
how about 45-50 min 10pt drop this morning – would that count as a quick turn into a v?
$SPX best short in weekly 2faced folio is $YOKU -10.22% http://stks.co/gO0R
Tony – the SP ( iii ), it was close, to my question in timing.
But – no cigar….try to do better next time. Does appear 1575 ish
is a good top area, too. Have a sunny weekend, too.
Depends how fast we make new highs
VIX not yet playing along that this is any kind of top
RC – I have 11.47 as the next important low. But, I can
see 9-10 for a low, as well….
thx Bud
best performer in weekly 2faced folio is this week so far is $SNMX, +14% so far. http://stks.co/gO0L
Thanks Tony aka awesome dude aka The Ayatollah of Rock n Rolla
I’m going to play the USDA report @ 11:00 then I’m off to a America’s Got talent audition
U guys have a great weekend..Its beautiful outside
Americas got Talent? The “triple threat” ? I think that show is supposed to be PG
C Ya’s next week.
: ) just because they’ll have to edit it, doesn’t mean Lee shouldn’t give it a try though, huh?
and in multiple categories,obviously..GL Lee!!…you’ll give them lots of pleasure..geez, what if we lose U to performing arts..
have fun!
Pico, please let me (us?) know it’s you, somehow, should you be chosen! Have fun! M
did AAPL have a mini algo flash crash this am around 10:01 EST? Bloomberg has a big tick down from 434 to 421 and then right back up to 434. anybody else see that?
I dont see it R C
Shows on TOS as well
No real volume though – so a ghost it be…
Do we still have a stimulus?
Since Jan 1 not anymore. Nice article by Thomas Kee shows we have a drain now, that will soon show.
“Treasury issues far more new bonds every month than it redeems, and when it does this, it drains liquidity from the financial system.
Tightening fiscal-policy liquidity is being drained out of the economy at a much faster rate than what is being infused into the financial system.
Therefore, if you add it all up, we have $11.2 billion in stimulus, and $23.4 billion as a drain on liquidity, for a net monthly drain of about $12.2 billion. This is the first time we have had a net drain since the credit crisis began, but no one sees it yet because the drain has not yet showed up in the data.
It will. In fact, we should see the first glimpse of that when we get the first-quarter 2013 initial GDP readings, but right now, no one cares. The financial system is seeing added liquidity, the data does not show the drain yet, so the market is in an odd place. They just want to push it higher, and they do not have reason to be concerned yet. Most people are not seeing this warning, but it is real.
We are now officially in an equity-asset bubble.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/will-the-real-stimulus-please-stand-up-2013-03-06
This is interesting because if the REALITY is that the Fed has been draining the pool for the past month or two and we continue to new highs it suggests the Fed is no longer needed to push things along. The market is effectively self sustaining. If it was shown that the punch bowl was removed and the market immediately did a 180 it would suggest the Fed was solely responsible for moving us higher. Whether we’re “aware” or not does have an effect but if we’re really moving higher independent of the Fed this is bullish imho. Time will tell…
tboys, the markets are self sustaining because many don’t understand that liquidity is being drained. Once that realization occurs, reactions could be quite different. M
I understand the premise of the article and disagree. It’s like teaching a kid to ride a bike by holding on to it until he rides without the help. When you inform him later he was actually riding without assistance he will not unlearn what he’s accomplished. The psychology of the market is a very subtle soft science. I recommend a great book published in 1912 entitled just this, “The Psycholgy of the Market” by George Selden…GREAT view from a traders’ perspective.
tboys, I understand what you’re saying and disagree with you. I liken it more to Wiley Coyote who is chasing Roadrunner and unknowingly goes off a cliff; then, when he looks down and realizes it, down he goes. The reason that I think this is even with Fed assist, we can’t manage 2-3% GDP. It’s ridiculous. We need more like 5% for real economic growth. M
M,
All in good time (GDP)…further once an article like this is published its already well “out there” – if fact – and not many who count are surprised.
tboys, you’re probably right. It is what it is. Have a great weekend! M
Blubrd,
The monetary base just hit a record high … draining what?
I think the article’s thesis is that its a lagging number. Whatever was reported most recently is data from some time ago and not current. I think.
Big jump in the 10 year today back to 2.04%…nice
hey tommyboys
Its a nice start !
i think 10yr has until about 2.4% before any real danger to the long term downtrend in rates
Probably true. I’m operating under the thesis that rates HAVE bottomed however and the new trend is higher over the coming years/decades. I remain bullish for the market based on this – to a point. Once the 10 year gets up into maybe that 5-6% range it will begin exerting pressure on equities. Until then however its bullish imho… Time will tell.
so if rates go back up at the same velocity they came down then we should have another 5-6 years of bull mkt for stocks. not bad!
This is my thought – and would likely surpirise the most – although it’ll likely be longer or shorter as they probably won’t move at an identical pace – although a possibility. We’ll see!
Uptrend over
Hey I see that 3 now Tony hahahaha
think i agree with you Lee. big tell if we don’t bounce off the gap close.
pivot smackdown, TC style
i like it
Hey RC
I’m just giddy .. I feel like a hundred bucks today
Man I should start a trading pay service/live cooking show
Minute iv underway
generally pretty shallow right? feels like 1526 looks good. close that big gap up open on 3/05 and also 50% retrace of iii.
with a failed 5 th on the way ?
Thanks Tony !
Tony, any chance we had a flat/shallow iv and this was v this morning?
RC, not oversold enough.
But have seen it before, and then, five was quite short
any chance we repeat this wave structure http://charts.stocktwits.net/production/original_12463008.jpg?1362760727
Nice one Andy
Good morning Tony
Quick question for you and I am sure it’s nothing but why is the 1552 pivot above 1560 on your SPX 60 minute chart?
Thank you
Cheers
stockcharts moved it =)
pbnj
I think ur already in the awesome dude club and on ur way to a great trader
Thank you Lee
Cheers all
ESH
pp @ 1542.25 R1 @ 1547 R2 @ 1550.25
S1 @ 1539 S2 @ 1536
Pivot time & Fridays historically counter trend …maybe
Nice “flag pole” possible pattern starting…1553-1560,
near term estimate….
LOD yesterday was 1541.67 10 handles to pivot
thats using the good eye imo
nice HD! 1552 got sold pretty hard at the open spx cash
Thx I ain’t greedy. Would need to take out that low
theres the 10 from globex high ..
Pivot Time with an ! always good for a few $
Were at the PP
236K Jobs added, 7.7% UE, $ ralling, all time highs DOW, Household net worth rose 1.17 Trillion to highest in 5 years….. cue the AC/DC USA!
somebody on the desk here belted out some little richard “i feeeeel good” after the # came out
Let loose from the noose … USA!
CL
PP @ 91.12 R1 @ 92.02
S1 @ 90.51
Ok guys give em heck
11 am CT USDA report
well if anything is going to push us to a near term high this jobs # should do it
Alright ! Pivot time !
GL !
Someone leaked the # early..
Be there or B square
possible the same BLS bozos who seem to leak every other number…?
Hey R C
It’s their ball , field and game
It is what it is…
The kids seem to love it
must be why i only pinch hit now and then
i know my limits
I love charts! Here’s some interesting ones this morning. Looking forward to Tony’s Weekend Update!
http://doctorboom.blogspot.com
M
It is good to see futures suggesting another gap up at the open. This may be only the start of the huge rally that I am expecting.
aapl is still weak, but soon it should rally.
GL
GM All.
Expectations of only 160K in new jobs?! Talk about loweingr the bar! Pathethic. Don’t know the name of the guy on CNBC who said it, but truly, markets have Bifurcated Psychological Disorder. M
GM
My source suggests between +165K and +170K … previous +157K.
tony, to be honest, all these numbers are utterly ridiculous! When compared to the number of jobs lost each week, there’s no where near the progress we should be making. M
M-
They took 38K jobs from last month and added to this month.
They seem to do that everytime
Tony….do we sell the NFP news? Would seem we’ve had quite a rally into the #…tell me insiders didn’t know. “Say it ain’t so, Joe….say it ain’t so”….lol
hard to say WC
M-
Tony says: They took 38K jobs from last month and added to this month.
They seem to do that everytime”
Thanks Tony. Forgot about that. Still the jobless claims need to be less than 100K per week and monthly gains of close to 400K for us to catch up. We’ll pay dearly for this in a year or 2, IMO. M
Sell the news M???? I am….
Mornin’ wcagle. I want to read Tony’s Weekend Update before I do anything else. Just riding the uptrend today. M
morn all
It’s Friday…yeah !
Like I said… Like we said…Like I mentioned..As I said..
Have a great weekend !
awesome dude
Wenesday, AFTER MARKET UPDATE, 2013/03/06
A. SHORT TERM INDICATORS/SYSTEMS:
1. elliott PSTT: is now on a BUY signal as it closed above 1520 spx on monday, 2013/03/04, the last sell short signal was on thursday’s, 2013/02/21, close below 1511. s. the PSTT is the most heavily weighted indicator for signaling a change in weekly to monthly wave counts and trend changes.
2. qqq indicator: +7 (on a scale of -10 to +10) down 1 (need 0 to sell ………and -6 to short. +6 is a buy and remains a buy until 0 is triggered. heavily weighs momentum in unison with smart buyer activity.
……….a -6 remains a short until 0 is triggered).
3. smart money indicator: +3 , unchanged. remains on sell signal. a -8, once triggered is usually a sell and remains so until a +7 is triggered.
4. March monthly 2faced longs: + 0.60% profit today. system holds for an entire month.
5. March monthly 2faced shorts: 4.04% loss today.
6. weekly 2faced longs, 0.28% loss today. system holds longs for a full week.
7. weekly 2faced shorts: 1.35% profit today.
i use the weekly 2faced stocks as day trading candidates.
8. large cap folio +0.53% today.
9. small cap folio: +0.83% today.
benchmarks: $SPY + 0.14%, $IWM +0.26% today.
B. LONG TERM INDICATORS:
crash indicator at +6 (updated 4-01) , up 2, versus last friday’s +4.next update will be on 2013/03/08. a rare -10 signals a 2008 type of crash. no signs of an upcoming crash.
all other long term indicators remain on a buy.
medium term “PSTT” remains on a buy.
C. TRADES/ALLOCATION:
changed: 51% invested, 10% short, 41% long.
see blog for today’s trade details. increasing longs on this pullback.
D. STOCK WATCH:
SHORT break out watch:
LONG break out watch: $CACH, $VCLK (broke out monday), $PCYC (broke out monday).
E. MISCELLANEOUS COMMENTS:
a BUY signal was triggered monday at the close by the elliott “PSTT” indicator as well as the qqq indicator but a further pullback is still a 30% probability. conservative profit goal for the weekly 2faced folio of longs and shorts will be 1% to 2% per week after commissions, that would be about a 67% return compounded over 52 weeks at a minimum, not bad for a market neutral strategy if it continues to work for me.
see the “ABOUT” section of the blog for more detailed descriptions of the use of all the above indicators and different trading portfolios.
follow the comments section of my blog for regular indicator and trade updates usually prepared on a regular basis usually prior to opening bell.
Add me to the “waiting on tenterhooks for the weekly update”.
…….for those who can’t wait, and subscribe to Bradley’s outlook, I give you 2013 and 2014!!
http://www.robertew.com/invest/bradley/br2013.jpg
http://www.robertew.com/invest/bradley/br2014.jpg
Thanks Tony.
Uh Oh. LOL! Et tu, fionamargaret? (kidding) Thanks for the links, fm. I need to read everything I can get my hands on right now, while I’m sidelined for the evening. Melinda
…thought the links would make you smile M – see, no worries until July – lots of time to feel better (while getting rich). x
Thanks Tony.
Thanks fm. If I work this just right, I might get to go to sleep by sundown. M
Fiona,
Won’t read Bradley, but you can tell me if it matches.
I’ve never been familiar with the whole Bradley thing but if I’m reading these right they think the market peaks for the year in each of the next few years will be in June/July? Very unusual and if this overbought market continues to extend all the way into June/July that could set up one nasty correction. Actually that sounds very similar to what happened in 86-87. I think we are going to get a top of substance here in March/April at 1576-1614 on the SPX. The % correction is up for debate at the moment.
Fiona, the red original Bradley indicator says not July (but the high in the indicator just can be a turn date- not must). If you want, I tell you the right date. An other thing is the black indicator. Sometimes this indicator is importtant.
We are still expecting a small pull back at this point to test the recent support level of 1,527 – 1,530 on $SPX.
Either a gap down at the opening, which will likely be filled and then eventually move higher, or a gap up which will be sold off.
A close below the recent 1,512 on the $SPX or 14,030 on the DOW will invalidate our scenario.
Next target: Test support
http://tradesfordummies.blogspot.com/
Tony – ready to put a iii at DJi 14,354 would I be wrong?
In lieu of the RSI5 divergences?
Thank you, Tony. I make no assumptions as to what your Weekend Update will reveal; as long as we can profit from it, it’s okay with me. One of the kids might have given me the flu; feel horrible. Took Tamiflu. OH THE JOY OF RAISING CHILDREN!!!! LOL! Goes with the territory. M
I did sell another 1/3 of my goog today. Holding the last 1/3, which ain’t much. M
Zinc, Vitamin C, humidifier, and stay warm.
Dr. T
Thanks Dr. T
+1 just to add to a good advice, take ascorbate, not ascorbic acid, for your C.
Thank you, Dr. T. All that, plus Tamiflu. Feeling better and having to go to work. Good trading to Everyone today! M
Thanks Tony! Tomorrow could be a wild ride with the Feb. jobs report out. At least one of those SPX pivots may get hit!
think so too Mike
“We uncovered a series of time and price relationships for the market longer term. It offers a potential roadmap through 2014. Will report on this in the weekend update.”
It’s a teaser, Tony. Can’t wait ..:)
“It’s a teaser, Tony. Can’t wait” — +1, Scorp… Tony knows how to write well and how to keep us on the edge of our seats : ) A little bit like those pros over at TMZ (just kidding): “folks:we have Megan Fox’s latest beach photos coming up in just a few short moments…but first…Roseanne Barr’s weight loss ordeal …oh man:( so we wait…. and wait and wait.. =)
I was expecting to see the Dow at 20,000.
This guy is expecting much higher prices http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/03/07/again-with-the-dow-36000/
Should I adjust my target for the Dow ?
Cup with handle pattern in the tech sector. aapl should push the entire market to the upside and we may see a huge rally. I wouldn’t be surprise with +30-40% move in the next months.
Sure hope you’re right about aapl, M1. I want to sell the rest of mine. It’s not much, but need to take profits on goog & aapl while I can. M
agree, looking forward to the weekend update
Thanks, Tony
It looks like this weekend update will be very interesting
ditto