monday update

SHORT TERM: choppy early then a rally, DOW +38

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.5%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:00 FED vice chair Yellen’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20130302a.htm. The market opened lower at SPX 1514, dipped to 1513 in the opening minutes, then rallied to 1519 by 11:30. The SPX had closed at 1518 on friday. The market then dropped to SPX 1512 by 12:30, only to turn around and rally again. 3:00 FED governor Powell’s speech: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20130304a.htm. The market continued higher into the close, ending the day at SPX 1525.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.40%. Bonds lost 4 ticks, Crude dropped 60 cents, Gold slipped $2, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains jumps to the 1523 and 1499 pivots, with resistance at the 1552 and 1576 pivots. Tomorrow: ISM services at 10:00.

The market opened lower, then bounced around between SPX 1512 and 1519 before rallying into the close. The SPX ended the day at the recent 1525 high. Despite, currently, 65% of the foreign markets in downtrends the US market continues to try to move higher. Recent highs have been SPX 1531, 1526, 1525 and now 1525 again. Minute waves i and ii, at SPX 1525 and 1501, remain. And, the market is back to SPX 1525, suggesting a Minute iii may still be underway. Nevertheless, we remain cautious medium term on this market raising our potential trend reversal level to SPX 1502.

Short term support is now at the 1523 and 1499 pivots, with resistance at the 1552 and 1576 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day overbought. The short term OEW charts vacillated again today and ended positive with the swing level at SPX 1514. Choppy market. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend still trying to rise

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
This entry was posted in Updates and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

159 Responses to monday update

  1. CygnetNoir says:

    stop is now 38.50, and I’ll limit out at 42.50 … if neither is hit, I’ll close it myowndamnself some time before 4:15 EST.

  2. mokiepon says:

    Lots of traders dropping their vix protection here. M

  3. H D says:

    There used to be really cool pattern SPX, wedges, triangles, retracement patterns etc. Now we play for bot driven 10 handles. Such is life. Some larger symmetry;1266-1474 (208) 1343+208 =1551, 1485-1525(40) 1501+40=1541

    • CygnetNoir says:

      I agree, HD. I miss the days of the three bar drift, the mini-flags, the two-leg intraday retracements. Funny how when trading was done by humans, the charts had an ebb and flow that the machines have all but destroyed.

      Then again, if you can catch just half of a couple of ten point moves every week or so, you can live quite well.

      Such is life.

  4. CygnetNoir says:

    Has theyenguy been by with another top call yet, or does will he save it for the comments section of tonight’s update?

  5. andysingal says:

    http://stocktwits.com/message/12398527, lets see test of 1480 after test of 1560

  6. mokiepon says:

    Bifurcated Psychological Breakdown? Interesting term… M

  7. kjb0 says:

    No suprise here Tony. The charade continues. They want all those IRA contributions before taking it down later this Spring.

  8. kvilia says:

    Hi Tony,
    If Minute iii ends around 1552, where do you see minute iv dropping to? Thanks!

  9. from another very well-recognized EW-er I follow (pretzel): “Sustained trade above 1541 would suggest the more bullish count [1558-1565 target for wave 3 of minor 5 and wave 5 of minor 5 @1575...]. seems like all systems are go and the two EW-ers I respect the most (tony and pretzel) have been in line with each other for several months now, and been nailing every turn.

    Avi Gilburt, from MW, also has the same kinda count, and targets, though his big-picture count is more bearish eventually. 3 out 3 EW-ers lining up should say something! Thanks for all your hard work Tony! Highly appreciated!!!

  10. mokiepon says:

    1/3 position uvxy at 9.35. Set it before I went to store. Wuold have bought it lower, but, whatever. M

  11. rc1269 says:

    Great work on this uptrend Tony! cheers

  12. blubrd67 says:

    This market is continuing to surprise the best of investment minds. Stanley Druckenmiller retired admitting too much stress in the last few years as he couldn’t match his previous success, and was down couple of years. He is very bearish now. A lot of great minds are very bearish now. And market will continue to go up. If the market goes up for most of this year as Tony’s analysis suggests,, imagine how many more bears will be frustrated. This round, the powers “above” suck the money from the best of them. Very popular bloggster with huge following, Michael Gayed, has announced “Correction has begun” when S&P was some 80-100 points lower, and continues to pump the same message on twitter every day. One thing I really respect is Tony is ability to adapt his views, most others are sticking to their messages in spite of evidence to the contrary. I bet when markets start correcting a bit they’ll call come out with: “We told you so!”

    ———————-
    “Druckenmiller, 57, said he’s frustrated by his failure in the past three years to match returns that had averaged 30 percent annually since 1986. His Duquesne Capital Management LLC, which oversees $12 billion and has never had a losing year, is down 5 percent in 2010″

    “…Johann Rupert, a friend and chief executive officer of Cie. Financiere Richemont SA, the world’s largest jewelry maker, invited him to play in October at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in Scotland, a golf tournament in which both professionals and amateurs compete.
    ‘Are You Crazy?’
    Druckenmiller declined, saying he couldn’t leave the office, given the history of volatile markets in October.
    “Are you crazy?” was Rupert’s reply, according to Druckenmiller. “You’ve been doing this for 30 years. You are a billionaire. You can’t take a couple of days off to play golf?”
    “I’d had that same thought a hundred times,” Druckenmiller said. He said almost every family vacation had been interrupted by a work emergency.”

    “Hedge-fund legend Stan Druckenmiller suggested Tuesday that the market’s current surge could continue for a while, but is likely to end — and end badly.”

    • great points; I am also amazed about how much bearishness there is still out there, and many have been top calling (waay too long); if this is a contrarian indicator, which it often is, then this 3rd wave ain’t done yet. Often 3rd waves are the moment of recognition (for the masses) and with the INDU’s new all time high hopefully many turn side and also go long, which will mean everybody and their dogs are eventually long and that’s when, and only then, when this 3rd wave is over.

      My main count is as follows, based in FIB extensions:

      1485->1525=wave 1 (40 points) of minor 5
      1525->1501=wave 2 (~20 points, 50% retrace, text book) of minor 5

      wave 3 is often 1.618x wave 1 = 1485 + 1.618×40 = 1485 + 65 = 1550.

      wave 4 often retraces ~25% of wave 3 = 16 points = 1535. Wave 5 extends to 2x wave 1 or is equal to wave 1: 1485 + 80 =1565 or 1535 + 40 = 1575.

      The latter is exactly at Tony’s OEW pivot. I will sell my longs at 1565, no need to get greedy, and for now: the trend is you friend. and the trend is up.

  13. CygnetNoir says:

    I’m thinking that is esh doesn’t make a stand right here around 1539 or so, more or les, give or take, etc. and so on, then 1552 may have to wait for another day.

    • CygnetNoir says:

      I may get low-tic’d out, but if I see 38.50 I’ll be out like a thief with my 4 1/2 and I’ll await some signs of life from either buyers or sellers before going at it again.

      Still holding my swing position from last week and using 1514 the watch for get out of dodge point for now.

      • CygnetNoir says:

        what is ominous to me as a day trader is the fact that the five minute ESH managed to go from a finally oversold pullback to overbought all while staying within about a 1.5 point range or so.

      • H D says:

        Cloudwalk day. Indicators r crap intraday when they float it like this. We r so far from the MA’s I suspect we have to move a little but my tooter is worn out.

  14. manunidhi21 says:

    Hi tony,
    why is spx not touching new highs…its looking more suspicious now..

  15. Pico Lee says:

    Toot Toot !

  16. DOW new all time high breakout 3…full 3’s short term likely…subscribers making TONS including myself (From new site Wavegenius.TV)
    http://wavegenius.tv/blog/2013/3/5/elliott-wave-noon-update-video-30513-dow-new-all-time-high-full-3s-likely

  17. Rob Naardin says:

    Hi Tony

    SPX is finally hitting the upper 200 week bb for the first time since 2007.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p80663447822

    End of the bull market or are we due for one of those nasty corrections where the weekly macd takes a trip below the zero/center line? Been a long time. SPX hasn’t had one of those corrections since 2011.

    The fed is stuck monetizing the budget deficit, so I’d guess this bull market will surprise people.

    Thanks Rob

  18. selhai says:

    Hi Tony,

    Last week you raised some questions over PUG’s chart numbers, as shown on his Feb. 27 update.

    As I see it, there are no specific targets, merely a series of 3s and 4s, as you would expect at this stage. The next 3 straddles the 1560 line across the chart – rough guidance only, not a target. The next 4 is just above 1500, around Easter. Pug’s “target” area for his P3-C3 is the circle around P3. Similarly, the “target” area for P4 is the circle around P4, September-ish. The forecast culminates just above 1700 – another larger circle – in Q2 2014.

    This is my personal interpretation, based on the experience of watching his public (free) updates for a considerable time.

    Hope this helps.

    • pbnj123 says:

      I was a fellow pugster – he is very good BUT no one can tell the future – so take his points into the future as guidance only – price is truth nothing else
      Cheers

    • tony caldaro says:

      thanks Selhai could not figure out what he was projecting from the charts.
      He sends me the password every month, as a courtesy, but never use it.

  19. pbnj123 says:

    The IHS target should be hit since breaking neckline called couple days ago but I am now flat.
    Good day to go watch a movie
    Cheers all
    Tony great job :-)

  20. mokiepon says:

    Louise Yamada interview coming up shortly on CNBC. Should be interesting. M

  21. H D says:

    30 points from the 12:30 LOD yesterday, why do I feel like I should have done better?….. Anybody thinking PB here 1542?

  22. mokiepon says:

    Direxion announced a reverse split for TZA, effective COB on April 1. M

  23. tommyboys says:

    Today’s big break in the Dow confirms a nice LT bull imho… looking for an historical run over the coming 18-24 months. Time will tell…

  24. Monday, AFTER MARKET UPDATE, 2013/03/04

    A. SHORT TERM INDICATORS/SYSTEMS:
    1. elliott PSTT: is now on a BUY signal as it closed aboe 1520spx. the last sell short signal was on thursday’s, 2013/02/21, close below 1511. s. the PSTT is the most heavily weighted indicator for signaling a change in weekly to monthly wave counts and trend changes.
    2. qqq indicator: +8 (on a scale of -10 to +10) up 14 points(need 0 to sell ………and -6 to short. +6 is a buy and remains a buy until 0 is triggered. heavily weighs momentum in unison with smart buyer activity.
    ……….a -6 remains a short until 0 is triggered).
    3. smart money indicator: +2 , up 4 points. remains on sell signal. a -8, once triggered is usually a sell and remains so until a +7 is triggered.
    4. March monthly 2faced longs: + 3.34% profit today. system holds for an entire month. system holds for an entire month.
    5. March monthly 2faced shorts: 1.90% profit today.
    6. weekly 2faced longs, 2.43% profit today. system holds longs for a full week.
    7. weekly 2faced shorts:, 1.90% profit today.

    i use the weekly 2faced stocks as day trading candidates.

    benchmark:$SPY + 0.53% today.

    B. LONG TERM INDICATORS:
    crash indicator at +6 (updated 4-01) , up 2, versus last friday’s +4.next update will be on 2013/03/08. a rare -10 signals a 2008 type of crash. no signs of an upcoming crash.
    all other long term indicators remain on a buy.
    medium term “PSTT” remains on a buy.

    C. TRADES/ALLOCATION:
    changed. 50% invested, 10% short, 40% long.
    see blog for today’s trade details. increasing longs on this pullback.

    D. STOCK WATCH:
    SHORT break out watch:
    LONG break out watch: $CACH, $VCLK, $PCYC

    E. MISCELLANEOUS COMMENTS:
    a BUY signal was triggered today at the close by the elliott “PSTT” indicator as well as the qqq indicator, although a further pullback is still a 40% probability. conservative profit goal for the weekly 2faced folio of longs and shorts will be 1% to 2% per week after commissions, that would be about a 67% return compounded over 52 weeks at a minimum, not bad for a market neutral strategy if it continues to work for me.

    best gains today in the 2faced folios came from $CLVS +12%, $SBGI +7.2% and $MEIP +14.2%. best short in the monthly 2faced folio was $AT down 16.99%

    see the “ABOUT” section of the blog for more detailed descriptions of the use of all the above indicators and different trading portfolios.

    follow the comments section of my blog for regular indicator and trade updates, usually prepared on a regular basis usually prior to opening bell.

  25. Pico Lee says:

    Bots
    Look how they mojoed this mkt from 11:30 am CT yesterday to currently @ the R2 pivot in ESH
    R3 @1557.50
    Bots… they’re not bad at this

  26. piazzi says:

    S&P — now might be the time to think about tightening/trailing stops — after all, I must book it, and then look it ;-)

    http://markettime.blogspot.com/2013/03/s-500-march-05-2013.html

  27. CygnetNoir says:

    CL not joining the party, and neither the venerable Dow nor the blue collar SP are “stair stepping” higher as I’d like to see on a gap and go. They look more like they are being dragged higher. Which is fine, but does nothing for my minute to minute confidence. What this party needs is a nice big range expansion higher – say three to five SP points in a 3-5 minute period to really get the party going.

  28. H D says:

    DOW HH, Tony congrats on your count. Truly amazing. We can lay W2 up(P3) theory to rest.

    • Pico Lee says:

      +1
      Tony sticks with DJIA and scores huge and all the time letting us in on what he saw happening as it happened.

      • CygnetNoir says:

        +1 to the 10th … I’m not a subscriber, but I’d sure like to hear how Steve “fully leveraged short” Hochberg ‘plains these happenings in the stfu, I mean the stu.

      • mokiepon says:

        CN, LOL! One of my friends still swears by it (stu). Sometimes has good sentiment and other indicators, but just not reliable. Tony’s method much better. Think of all the profits lost by those who sat on the sidelines for the last 3.5+ years! M

      • Igor says:

        Tony is unique among other elliotticians in applying quantitative methods in his EW analysis. It allows to exclude the subjective bias inherent in the orthodox EW analysis. Much respect for that.

      • tony caldaro says:

        Thanks Igor, just following RN. Elliott’s work

      • mokiepon says:

        Igor, I agree. Building up some money in my budget in order to join OEW Inner Sanctum. However, kids come first… M

  29. CygnetNoir says:

    ESH I’m playing for a trend day up … open at the lows and no matter what happens in between we close at the highs.

    I’m in at 34 and keeping my eyes closed. Got a limit to take it all off the table at 1554. Stop a tick or two below RTH low. I either lose a little or win a lot.

    Good luck to all …

  30. H D says:

    GM all, closing in on 55 fib points. http://t.co/uab6zpitWo USA!

  31. mokiepon says:

    All long positions, except for ~1/3 position in uvxy. Here we go! Will it, or won’t it, and will it close there?! M

  32. Pico Lee says:

    Thx Patrick for the updated GC daily chart count.
    CL is a peach eh ?
    I’ll leave SPX to the experts here R2 @ 1532.25

  33. CygnetNoir says:

    G’morning and G’day … My swing trades have been working great lately but my day trading has been a bit spotty lately … in spite of a great start I managed to finish down yesterday, and the margin of error was nearly equal to my broker’s commissions, almost to the penny … hoping to get my mojo back soon. And from my perspective, no better time than the present. Which means you’ll probably do well to fade me from here to the closing bell.

  34. M1 says:

    5th wave from 1398 ? then a 3-4 % correction ?
    Still short and keep my stops
    GL

  35. Pico Lee says:

    morn all
    THX Bud

  36. budfox9450 says:

    Timing101 – here are my thoughts, see what you think…
    ref GLD….my thinking is the low of 150.89. Needs to be exceeded, before a Swing
    Trade low is in place. However, the recent lw of 150.89 looks like a W3 low,
    and the 156.80 recent high is seen as an (a) wave high. Therefore. The next
    low, may not exceed the 150.89. Expecting, price to make a (b) wave low. Then
    run up to and above the last high of 156.80 and make a (c), or W4 high.
    Then we begin the 5th wave down to a Swing trade low, below 150….

  37. best gains today in the 2faced folios today came from CLVS +12%, SBGI +7.2% and MEIP +14.2%. all longs and shorts were posted prior to monday’s open.

  38. Friday, AFTER MARKET UPDATE, 2013/03/01

    A. SHORT TERM INDICATORS/SYSTEMS:
    1. elliott PSTT: remains on a SELL signal. thursday’S, 2013/02/21, close below 1511 spx triggered a SELL signal and is still on a sell BUT ON THE VERGE OF GOING LONG; IF THE SPX CLOSES ABOVE 1520 ON MONDAY WE WILL HAVE A BUY SIGNAL – I’LL BE WATCHING 5 MINUTES PRIOR TO THE CLOSE TO ENTER TNA LONGS. the PSTT is the most heavily weighted indicator for signaling a change in weekly to monthly wave counts and trend changes.
    2. qqq indicator: -6 (on a scale of -10 to +10) UNCHANGED, triggered a sell short signal on last thursday.(need 0 to sell ………and -6 to short. +6 is a buy and remains a buy until 0 is triggered. heavily weighs momentum in unison with smart buyer activity.
    ……….a -6 remains a short until 0 is triggered).
    3. smart money indicator: -2 , up 2 points. remains on sell signal. a -8, once triggered is usually a sell and remains so until a +7 is triggered.
    4. feb. monthly 2faced longs: +.50% profit today. system holds for an entire month. folio was closed today with +0.44 profit for the month.
    5. feb. monthly 2faced shorts: 0.69% profit today. system holds for an entire month and were closed today with a 9.72% profit for the month.

    monthly 2faced longs and shorts netted a 10.14% combined profit for the month of february vs. +0.58% for $SPY.

    6. weekly 2faced longs, 0.29% loss today. system holds longs for a full week.;, 0.29% loss today. system holds longs for a full week.
    7. weekly 2faced shorts:, 0.57% profit today.

    weekly 2 faced combined net profits for the week were 3.37% since a winning stock with a 25% one day profit ($ENMD, see monday’s mkt.update) was closed and proceeds used for $IBM purchase; the spreadsheet does not take this into 25% profit into account.

    8. medium term short stock/etf folio: closed out today with a 3.2% profit or $3,751 profit today; see new post for spreadsheet.

    i use the weekly 2faced stocks as day trading candidates.

    $SPY + 0.33% today.

    B. LONG TERM INDICATORS:
    crash indicator at +6 (updated 4-01) , up 2, versus last friday’s +4.next update will be on 2013/03/08. a rare -10 signals a 2008 type of crash. no signs of an upcoming crash.
    all other long term indicators remain on a buy.
    medium term “PSTT” remains on a buy.

    C. TRADES/ALLOCATION:
    changed. 0 invested, 0% short, 0% long.
    see blog for today’s trade details. waiting on minor pullback to possibly re-institute more long positions.

    D. STOCK WATCH:
    SHORT break out watch:$RAX, $DGIT, $LOGM$ GUID, $RPRX broke down wed.
    LONG break out watch: $CACH, $VCLK, $PCYC
    $OESX broke out last monday,, $CZR broke out last thursday, $NFLX and $ANGI both broke out of tight flag on thursday and wed. ,respectively.

    E. MISCELLANEOUS COMMENTS:
    a SELL short signal has finally been triggered by the elliott “PSTT” indicator as well as the qqq indicator last week thursday.
    see blog for today’s trades. a conservative profit goal for the weekly 2faced folio of longs and shorts will be 1% to 2% per week after commissions, that would be about a 67% return compounded over 52 weeks at a minimum, not bad for a market neutral strategy if it continues to work for me.
    see the “ABOUT” section of the blog for more detailed descriptions of the use of all the above indicators and different trading portfolios.

    follow the comments section of my blog for regular indicator and trade updates, usually prepared on a regular basis usually prior to opening bell.

    all spreadsheets for the above folios are in the current post.

  39. mokiepon says:

    robslob, go here to see a special chart on aapl: http://doctorboom.blogspot.com
    M

    • robslob64 says:

      Thanks M and everyone else I appreciate the sentiment.

      Tony may remember I got stuck in some inverse ETFs for about 15 months and 1 blistering downside tear in August in 2011 got out with +7%.

      I can wait about 2 years…maybe GOOG will buy AAPL…lol…but not really lol…

      • mharrison60 says:

        robslob64 I am in same position now. How were you so patient for 15 months and did not write it off, especially with volatility eating into capital more than % move?

  40. valunvstr says:

    IHS is valid with a break of 1525. 1565 become target. As stated over the weekend. Keep an eye on the 1525 break. Then a retest of the neckline and one more launch higher to the 1565 area to complete the “wave”.

  41. CB says:

    Thanks Tony.

    gee, I am confused – China weak, but IYT @ a new 52 wek high…it must be different this time..again :))

    • Igor says:

      IYT got a boost from airlines which in its turn got a boost from declining oil prices. How it fits in the overall economic picture Tony knows better.

      • CB says:

        good point, Igor. Thanks. Just a short -term improvement in their bottom line, or an increase in demand (which should lead to an increase, not a decrease in fuel prices…let’s watch it

  42. budfox9450 says:

    Thank you , Tony…
    My view, is that the yo-yo SP will be the trickster again – soon moving above the high of
    1530.94 – the “reversing in a hard down”. while there is the outside chance of a 1553
    new high – do not expected it. Odd’s favor a drop below my critical 1497, level. Eventually,
    pressing to the 1474 level…..I am not going short this coming decline. The top
    is yet to be defined…..

  43. timing101 says:

    Is anybody going long gold stocks here? 50% retrace ($HUI) from the 2000 low at 337; 61.8% from the 2008 low also at 337. HUI hit 340 today.

  44. mokiepon says:

    Much thanks, Tony. M

  45. timing101 says:

    Thanks Tony. Right back to the 89%-90% retracement. Cheap short here. Stop and reverse above 1527 SPX.

    • mokiepon says:

      3rd time. Lower high (barely) each time. Interesting that vix etn’s are dropping, not rising. I know it’s not completely accurate at this point, but usually, if there’s an expectation of a possible pullback the next day, it shows up in uvxy and others. M

      • mokiepon says:

        Vix etn’s dropped in price AH’s. Have 1/3 position uvxy that I’ll probably sell sometime tomorrow, unless we hit that 1530-31ish and come right back down. 1532+, it has to be. M

  46. mike7x says:

    Thanks for all your updates Tony! This is a difficult market (duh) of course and I know you remain “cautious” near-to-medium term. Is there an SPX level that could be reached for you to again “favor” (being less cautious) the current Uptrend as reaching the SPX 1552 and/or 1576 pivots? (If the ISM Services report is favorable tomorrow that might be a catalyst?)

  47. robslob64 says:

    Thanks Tony!

    I am an underwater and trapped bull in AAPL…the pain is worse than being short ETF’s during a bull market…-20% and counting…

    • tony caldaro says:

      Long term bear market for AAPL

    • CygnetNoir says:

      Not for nothing, friend, but has no one ever taught you how to use a stop loss? There is no reason ever, ever, ever, to lose more than 8% on a position, and that should be worse case.

      When will you cut it loose? At $400/share? $300/share? $30/share?

      • robslob64 says:

        Well…with the Long Term bear market comment from Tony I suppose I get out on the next bounce.

        If their isn’t one then it will be what it will be…I will probably attempt to get out right at the bottom.

      • tony caldaro says:

        Sorry Rob,
        It is not confirmed yet, although likely.

      • mokiepon says:

        rob, I have some aapl too, but not underwater, have had it for years. I sold half of it, unknowingly, in it’s higher range ($610+). I want to sell the rest of it at the next pop, and I think there will be one. Maybe you can get away with being 10% under, I don’t know. M

      • mokiepon says:

        rob, to be more clear, for me, I might not sell aapl on the next pop absolutely, but if this mkt has a last leg up near the end of the year, I’ll sell much of it then. Will be selling into rallies as they occur. IMO, when Steve Jobs left this life, he took aapl with him. M

    • CB says:

      Rob, sorry to hear about ur loss. We all learn thru experiences like that. We have to draw the line somewhere sooner or later. Hope you know where that price point is for you. It seems that aapl stil has room to go to ca. 410ish ST, fwiw. GLto U.

      • robslob64 says:

        Thanks CB…now it is about how much of a loss…which is the very unfun part of trading.

        Seems I can’t do much right in the old IRA…thought for sure I would be ok with AAPL in a bull market…

    • mokiepon says:

      rob, one more thing, not to extend your pain. Just so you know, I was YELLED AT by many traders for selling aaple starting just above $600. A few guys (nobody here, okay, that I know of) cursed me, “dumb@$$ b1tch” and others… WHO’S THE DUMB@$$ NOW?!!!!! LOL! rob, keep an eye on it and see if this uptrend actually takes aapl up with it. You really might have a chance again at year end also, I don’t know, depends upon timing of Big V wave. Also, traders are pushing it hard and unknowing persons might buy it (to their doom). Sigh. It’s tough. Hang in there. M

  48. As we predicted last week on Monday (February 25, 2013), the bottom of the down trend was at 1,485 on the $SPX.

    We also said that the new uptrend, the beginning of which was confirm last week Tuesday (February 26, 2013), would be composed of 3 legs:

    (1) up 35-40 points: 1,525 : wave i
    (2) a small pullback 1,501: wave ii
    (3) a second 35 or so point advance : wave iii.

    Within this wave iii, we see on the hourly the first leg up to 1,520, a leg down to 1,512 and now underway a second leg up to a target of 1,538, which will clear the recent resistance of Feb 19. It will then pull back to the new support (previously resistance) of 1,527 – 1,530, and possibly reach new highs targeted at 1,565.

    A close below the recent 1,512 on the $SPX or 14,030 on the DOW will invalidate our scenario.

    Next target: 1,538.

    http://tradesfordummies.blogspot.com

  49. Pico Lee says:

    Thanks Tony

Comments are closed.