wednesday update

SHORT TERM: no gap opening but big rally, DOW +175

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.3%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 Durable goods orders were reported lower: -5.2% vs +4.3%. The market opened 1 point below yesterday’s SPX 1497 close, dipped to 1495, and then started to rally. At 10:00 FED chairman Bernanke presented his report to Congress, and Pending home sales were reported higher: +4.5% vs -4.3%. The rally continued into the afternoon with just two pullbacks of 4 and 3 points. At 3:30 the SPX hit 1520, then pulled back to close at 1516.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.05%. Bonds lost 2 ticks, Crude added 20 cents, Gold dropped $16, and the USD was lower. Medium term support jumps to the 1499 and 1440 pivots, with resistance at the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Tomorrow: Q4 GDP (est. +0.5%), and weekly Jobless claims at 8:30. Then at 9:45 the Chicago PMI, and a speech from FED governor Raskin at 12:30.

The market opened slightly lower today then had its best rally since early January. After the short term trend turned positive yesterday at SPX 1495, the market has continued to rally without even one 5 point pullback. In fact, from the SPX 1485 low the market has rallied 35 points without a 5 point pullback. Quite a powerful surge. Minor wave 4 looks to have bottomed at that low and Minor wave 5 has been underway. Our weekend targets of the 1552 and 1576 pivots remain. But, with Q4 GDP tomorrow and the DOW already at new highs, it may be an uptrend negative if the SPX drops to 1500 again.

Short term support now jumps to the 1499 pivot and SPX 1471/75, with resistance at the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Short term momentum has risen from a positive divergence to extremely overbought today. The short term OEW charts turned positive in the morning with the reversal level now around SPX 1509. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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259 Responses to wednesday update

  1. tony caldaro says:

    You all smashed the comments record by at least 60 posts

  2. Lee says:

    and thats all I got to say about that

  3. rc1269 says:

    “when u started a short position at SPX 1000 …1560 just seems right . It would be so embarrassing to get stopped out at a new all time high ”
    bwahahaha nice one Lee. oh man, i got a chortle outta that. redefines pain trade

    on another note – 1523 pitvot tagged and faded. tomorrow might be an important day. good thing we don’t have silly gov’t budget headlines to deal with

  4. Ronin I3 says:

    http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2013/02/05/tuesday-update-372/

    Surfer Boyee, “choppy markets like these separates the men from the boys.”
    Surfer Boyee, “not liking the market which is not giving any clear signals on which way it wants to go”

  5. mokiepon says:

    Tony reminded me yesterday about the new money that comes in at the end and beginning of each month. Even as tomorrow is the 1st, more so, I think perhaps next Monday also. M

  6. M1 says:

    Tony,
    Do we have 5 waves from 1485 ?

  7. Lee says:

    This is Tonys blog be nice This is Tonys blog be nice..

  8. M1 says:

    I wonder if Robert Pechter is still bearish ?

    • Lee says:

      He is M
      1560 ish stp

    • cwallace90 says:

      Bearish as ever M1.

    • mokiepon says:

      Why would he set a stop as high as 1560? Covering his, I guess. M

      • Lee says:

        when u started a short position at SPX 1000 …1560 just seems right . It would be so embarrassing to get stopped out at a new all time high in nominal terms of course the DJIA priced in Gold is at 2 ;)

      • mokiepon says:

        uh boy.

        The sad thing is that the people who could have really used the money (retirees, families, WCJoe’s) had the last 4 years to make some righteous bucks, and when they figure this out in the middle of the soon-to-be bear mkt., I hope they’re as mad at themselves as they are Prechter. M

      • Lee says:

        M
        I hear that !
        Tony has been a blessing
        Its 4 years into this liquidity bull market and I’m still confused 1/2 the time :)
        Retirees are the ones who got absolutely robbed with what happened to fixed income and if they also followed Bobby (I call him that) yikes.

  9. Hi everybody, just a quick note that I am back from a 2 week hiatus (1 week for work, then 1 week for vaca), and have only followed the market and Tony’s updates from the side line, while going long on tuesday at the open. I am sure nobody missed me, lol, but that draw down to 1485 must have sure hurt many bulls and this move up is sure hurting many bears. Ergeo conclusio: nothing has changed. Market as usual! ;-)

  10. Lee says:

    ominous post count ?

  11. Lee says:

    Hey Bud
    RE: USO via CL
    my S2 today is @ 91.59

    • Lee says:

      S3 = 90.40
      I would think the $100 or bust crowd just went bust.
      Should get interesting as it’s not oversold on my 4hr chart so hence a pos div here ?
      Thank goodness for CL

  12. rc1269 says:

    i wonder what the ratio of human:machine trading volume is these days. i thought i saw something like 85% but that was a couple years ago. can’t imagine it’s lower now

  13. Ronin I3 says:

    #200..Boom! Thanks M!

  14. pooch77 says:

    Go figure M

  15. alexh110 says:

    Is anyone else shorting the DAX here? Looks like an attractive shorting target to me, with negative RSI divergences on daily and weekly charts, and close proximity to a resistance level on weekly MACD.

  16. Lee says:

    Have a great vacation I3
    Catch u guys ltr..

  17. rc1269 says:

    watch out for the 10pt bots today folks. hiding right around the corner

  18. wavedreamtrance says:

    Hi all,

    I’m new here. Hope everyone is riding this rally. Hoping to chat with you all. What do you all think? Can we break the 1530 for a real wave 5?

  19. pbnj123 says:

    Funky gap – chart missage or is that real and needs to be closed???

  20. CygnetNoir says:

    Tony, I’d feel a whole lot better about the Dow’s progress if the spoos was keeping pace. But right now, it would seem we may be on track for another spoos 5th wave failure. What say you?

  21. Lee says:

    Just Like I said

  22. budfox9450 says:

    There ya go…up up and away to 1530 test….

  23. manunidhi21 says:

    Hi all,
    can anybody give me a link for a real time SPX .
    thnx

  24. rc1269 says:

    What ‘statement’ on budget do people expect?
    feel pretty certain that sequestration will happen tomorrow. the bigger question is does the mkt care. hasn’t cared about slowing economic growth yet the last few months so not sure what makes it start now. check out copper the last few weeks.

    • budfox9450 says:

      RC – you might be using – a bit to much logic. :)
      It’s the magic of the Fed, right?

      • rc1269 says:

        ‘magic’ is one way to put it. hah don’t worry, i don’t apply logic to market actions, but merely with economic trends and financial fundamentals. the linkage between those things can get pretty disconnected, especially in timing.
        some trainwrecks you can indeed see coming in slow motion. and when the ‘efficient’ market starts to finally react it’s always entertaining to see the CNBC dingbats running around like headless chickens, declaring “who could have known [ ]?!”
        buy low, sell high. we’re not low. that’s all i can say

  25. mckennedy says:

    Hi all, haven’t been commenting but have lurked from time to time as I’ve had a free moment. You may remember that I moved to Iowa (still keeping my Houston residence) when my brother unexpectedly passed away in 2009 to help restructure our family farm operations for my mother. I’ve been running the farm since that time. Recently, my 84 year old mother also unexpectedly passed from a sudden unexpected heart attack. She was in the best health she had been in for years so it was a bit of a shock

    I am placing the farmland in an LLC owned by myself and my litle sister (she’s 20 years younger than I am & working at the American Embassy in Oman). I’ll continue managing the farm. I’ve transferred residency to Iowa and we will be moving our household to the farm sometime this year. I am still getting used to the idea that I am sitting where my farmer brother was suppose to be. If you had asked me five years ago, “where will you be in five years”, I never would have predicted farming in Iowa. I am very happy that I was able to support my mother in her last years and hope I prove to be the good stewart of our family’s farm legacy. Someday perhaps I can get back to trading but for the time being, I am just an occasional opportunist and enjoy reading Tony’s blod and all of your adventures. It helps me keep an impartial eye on the price action in the corn and soybean markets!

  26. pooch77 says:

    Looks like no market movement until we get statement on budget mess

  27. manunidhi21 says:

    Hi tony

    if this is correct then spending cuts are bluff..
    is gdp data out

    • tony caldaro says:

      Manunidhi,
      The president also has to sign off on the budget.
      So it is not as simple as that video presents.

    • mokiepon says:

      President signed off on Budget or Sequester? Budget deadline I thought was March 27. After reading this, I must be mistaken somehow. I know there was a Continuing Resolution on Sequester moving thru Senate & House, giving BO more room to move funds around. Supposed to be voted on today. Nobody thinks it will pass. Don’t know why they say that, but is what I heard as I was walking out the door. M

      • mokiepon says:

        GDP revision was ridiculous, +0.1, when +0.5 expected. Evidently, traders do not care and are ignoring any and all bad data. M

      • rc1269 says:

        CR and sequester are two totally different things. Our CR (read: the budget) is good through March 27. If we don’t have a new budget or another CR, then the gov’t shuts down. This is separate from the sequester, which will go into effect tomorrow. Today’s two bills in the Senate are purely posturing; they want to say, “see, why *tried* to stop it, it’s HIS fault!” There are not enough votes for either bill to pass.
        It is thought that in the coming weeks there might be a combination budget/bill presented by the GOP that would incorporate the $ amt of the sequester cuts into a real budget, thereby allowing each agencies to take a more deliberate approach to the cuts but leaving the total $ value of cuts unchanged from what the sequester has.

      • rc1269 says:

        there is no new CR or budget currently being discussed or on the floor in either house

  28. Lee says:

    Guys trading is serious biz and I’m in a silly mood
    Bulls I hope u make a killing Bears I hope U make a killing.
    Ltr !

    • CygnetNoir says:

      I’m in a silly mood as well, but on a serious note … watch out for those cops, trying to hunt my stops …

  29. pbnj123 says:

    Anyone here use TOS and monkeye bars?
    What is that little blue box on first line – anyone?
    Thanks

  30. Lee says:

    theres ur ABC down 1552 by noon
    Ok I’m hedged now Pooch :)

  31. pooch77 says:

    Lee,Lee never ever tease market cause it will slap back hard.

  32. pbnj123 says:

    Tony – do ii’s have to retrace or can they be sideways consolidations only to resume higher in iii’s
    Thank you
    Cheers

  33. kvilia says:

    I see a small pullback to 1504-1505 as healthy – ii of 5?

  34. Lee says:

    1523* till it ain’t

  35. CygnetNoir says:

    Bond. Long Bond. The 30 year trened down while stocks trended up from the November turning point. Stocks sold off hard and bonds rallied hard last week into this week. Now, stocks seem well on their way to shaking off the jitters, but the bond players are holding their newly long position.

    What is up wit dat?!

  36. pooch77 says:

    Short, spy 151p,lets test 1506

  37. budfox9450 says:

    Tony – thanks for the CAF chart – Both CAF, and VNM are working out
    very nicely – hope you bought, as well……

    • tony caldaro says:

      cheers Bud on the China sidelines now

      • budfox9450 says:

        Thanks, for the reply Tony – Guess that makes me the Bull, then
        I can see 2500-2550 as resistance, and 3,000 level as well. But,
        my time there suggest, we go much higher…The new leader, Xi.
        Is a fairly dynamic person, and the Buy vol. is impressive…best to you,
        stay warm…

  38. CygnetNoir says:

    And in other news, after a 4 point drop low to high on the SP-500, CNBC is reporting that the market has now entered “Bear Market Territory,” as any drop of 4 points or greater is the preferred demarcation line between acceptable upward progress and the terrifying fiscal abyss below according to the latest Fed Minutes (see Fed release 20130226qwerty765, page 8987, foot note 9765423.

  39. cmparis says:

    Hi Tony
    Market has gotten us pretty close to 1531 again….What is the chance that we get caught in the tractor beam of 1523 Pivot and get a failed 5th wave here?
    Thanks, Charlie

  40. Lee says:

    Looks like most here have the markets figured out.
    I’d say use stops but thats so 20 th century :)
    Continued success !

  41. M1 says:

    Short term is up, Medium term is up, Long term is up.
    aapl is just abt to make the big move up taking the NAZ at least +30%

  42. capi25 says:

    OK sorry Tony i was mixed up

    I thouht you projected 1552 before the weekend ????

  43. capi25 says:

    Tony you wrote “Our weekend targets of the 1552 and 1576 pivots remain.”
    Maybe i mss something Ihat,s the first time i see this target. Do you have another nlog wher i can follow all your thought.
    Thank Tony

  44. WEDNESDAY, AFTER MARKET UPDATE, 2013/02/27

    A. SHORT TERM INDICATORS/SYSTEMS:
    1. eliott PSTT: remains on a SELL signal. a thursday’S, 2013/02/21, close below 1511 spx triggered a SELL signal and is still on a sell, the PSTT is the most heavily weighted indicator for signalling a change in weekly to monthly wave counts and trend changes.
    2. qqq indicator: -5 (on a scale of -10 to +10) up 5 points, triggered a sell short signal on last thursday.(need 0 to sell ………and -6 to short. +6 is a buy and remains a buy until 0 is triggered. heavily weighs momentum in unison with smart buyer activity.
    ……….a -6 remains a short until 0 is triggered).
    3. smart money indicator: -5 , up 1 point. remains on sell signal. a -8, once triggered is usually a sell and remains so until a +7 is triggered.

    4. feb. monthly 2faced longs 2.41% profit today. system holds for an entire month.
    5. feb. monthly 2faced shorts 0.47% profit today. system holds for an entire month. monthly combined longs and shorts net about a 9.12% profit to date this month vs +0.45% to same date for spy.
    6. weekly 2faced longs, 0.70% profit today. system holds longs for a full week.
    7. weekly 2faced shorts, 0.87% loss today. system holds shorts for a full week.

    i use the weekly 2faced stocks as day trading candidates.

    $SPY +1.26% today.

    B. LONG TERM INDICATORS:
    crash indicator at +4 versus last friday’s +2.next update will be on 2013/02/29. a rare -10 signals a 2008 type of crash.
    all other long term indicators remain on a buy.
    medium term “PSTT” remains on a buy.

    C. TRADES/ALLOCATION:
    changed. 41% invested, 11% short, 30% long.
    see blog for today’s trade details. waiting on minor pullback to possibly re-institute more long positions.

    D. STOCK WATCH:
    SHORT break out watch:$GUID, $RPRX, $RDEN $ELLI broke down on thursday.
    LONG break out watch: $OESX broke out last monday,, $CZR broke out thursday, $RSOL, $NFLX, $ANGI. $ANGI broke out today.

    E. MISCELLANEOUS COMMENTS:
    a SELL short signal has finally been triggered by the elliott “PSTT” indicator as well as the qqq indicator last week thursday.
    see blog for today’s trades. i will soon be trading the weekly 2faced system in my account, a conservative profit goal will be 1% to 2% per week after commissions, that would be about a 67% return compounded over 52 weeks at a minimum, not bad for a market neutral strategy if it continues to work for me.

    see the “ABOUT” section of the blog for more detailed descriptions of the use of all the above indicators and different trading portfolios.

    follow the comments section of my blog for regular indicator and trade updates, usually prepared on a regular basis usually prior to opening bell.

  45. M1 says:

    No more pullbacks for the moment. The market will go up and up as Q3 plays out. “The Boss” will keep pumping trillions into the market.
    Then We may need to adjust the count when the Dow cross over 15000.
    Only an unexpected big negative event could derail this projection.

  46. TUESDAY, AFTER MARKET UPDATE, 2013/02/25

    A. SHORT TERM INDICATORS/SYSTEMS:
    1. eliott PSTT: remains on a SELL signal. a thursday’S, 2013/02/21, close below 1511 spx triggered a SELL signal and is still on a sell, the PSTT is the most heavily weighted indicator for signalling a change in weekly to monthly wave counts and trend changes.
    2. qqq indicator: -10 (on a scale of -10 to +10) down 2 points, has now triggered a sell short signal on thursday.(need 0 to sell ………and -6 to short. +6 is a buy and remains a buy until 0 is triggered. heavily weighs momentum in unison with smart buyer activity.
    ……….a -6 remains a short until 0 is triggered).
    3. smart money indicator: -6 , up 3 points. remains on sell signal. a -8, once triggered is usually a sell and remains so until a +7 is triggered.

    4. feb. monthly 2faced longs 1.71% profit today. system holds for an entire month.
    5. feb. monthly 2faced shorts 3.05% profit today. system holds for an entire month. monthly combined longs and shorts net about a 6.30% profit to date this month vs -0.81% to same date for spy.
    6. weekly 2faced longs, 0.01% profit today. system holds longs for a full week. $ENMD with a 25% profit on monday was closed and replaced with $IBM today,possible repurchase on a pullback in next few days.
    7. weekly 2faced shorts, 1.66% loss today. system holds shorts for a full week.

    i use the weekly 2faced stocks as day trading candidates.

    $SPY +0.74% today.

    B. LONG TERM INDICATORS:
    crash indicator at +4 versus last friday’s +2.next update will be on 2013/02/29. a rare -10 signals a 2008 type of crash.
    all other long term indicators remain on a buy.
    medium term “PSTT” remains on a buy.

    C. TRADES/ALLOCATION:
    unchanged. 41% invested, 41% short, 0% long.
    see blog for today’s trade details. waiting on minor pullback to possibly re-institute more long positions.

    D. STOCK WATCH:
    SHORT break out watch:$GUID, $RPRX, $RDEN $ELLI broke down on thursday.
    LONG break out watch: $OESX broke out last monday,, $CZR broke out thursday, $RSOL, $NFLX, $ANGI.

    E. MISCELLANEOUS COMMENTS:
    a SELL short signal has finally been triggered by the elliott “PSTT” indicator as well as the qqq indicator last week thursday. locked in some decent short term profits. i will probably add some non-tna shorts this week.

    see blog for today’s trades. i will soon be trading the weekly 2faced system in my account, a conservative profit goal will be 1% to 2% per week after commissions, that would be about a 67% return compounded over 52 weeks at a minimum, not bad for a market neutral strategy if it continues to work for me.

    see the “ABOUT” section of the blog for more detailed descriptions of the use of all the above indicators and different trading portfolios.

    follow the comments section of my blog for regular indicator and trade updates, usually prepared on a regular basis usually prior to opening bell.

  47. gary61b says:

    You know everybody has opinions, I just prefer Tony’s work over Pugs.

  48. mjtplayer says:

    Hey Tony,

    USD at the important 82 area, what are your thoughts here?

    Me thinks breaking 82 is a MUST for the buck, then 84. If both get pushed through it’s 89/90 in the “dixie”.

    However, if we fail here at 82 and turn lower, the neckline of the 1yr+ H&S pattern becomes critical support around 78.50ish, if broken and confirms H&S, donwside target is 73. Gametime for the USD, after a breif rest, daily RSI at 92.

  49. mokiepon says:

    Have a good evening All. Kids bathing and water everywhere. Have to wring them out and get them to bed. TTY tomorrow. M

  50. pooch77 says:

    Hey Tony,how do i shut off these emails from every post i get,i am getting killed here

  51. pooch77 says:

    Hate to say this but I think we get fast move up then down tomorrow,maybe 10-15 minutes into the open then down

    • mokiepon says:

      With this market, ANYTHING is possible. M

    • torehund says:

      Pooch good trip. I am on the long patterns and waiting for that Hang Seng divergence to unfold. Should put pressure on the Dollar and make the Euro rally, just think the dollar strength is some macro worry temporary issue.
      Also waiting for dry bulk to get stronger, and tanking of course..

  52. mokiepon says:

    I crown CygnetNoir, King for a Day.
    Nobody had as much fun today as he did. Good times, CN
    Melinda

  53. pooch77 says:

    Watching 1499 pivot at 1505-06 ,we should gap up to 1521-24,i will short this baby there unless noted tomorrow morning but that is the game plan

  54. andysingal says:

    Tony, any chance we test lows of Tuesday before higher to finish intermediate 3, wave 4

  55. CB says:

    i3- “Are you a good pilot?” lLooks like a trick question (yes, we love them..)
    why r u asking i3?, are we gonna bomb N Korea tomorrow or sth? (right around ur vacation time, of course)?

    • Ronin I3 says:

      CB, I was referring to a scene in Top Gun. Unfortunately I can’t find the clip that has Charlie asks Maverick about if he is a good pilot.

      • CB says:

        i3,OK it looks like I asked a DA question du jour. Anyways just read the whole plot since I haven’t seen that movie (yeah, welcome to my surreal world). I like it though, especially Cruise as the reckless pilot. One thing that always strikes me is how well those Hollywood casting people choose actors. Tom Cruise for instance is a 1962 Tiger, so hello!! reckless bahavior & breaking the rules,anyone? ..sure! Also, reminds me of him & Demi Moore (also a 1962 Tiger) in “A few good men” . Ok, so both of them have absolutely no clue how they’re gonna get Jessup,right? but Tom tries it anyway(risky &reckless, huh?..and how does it end?… and Jack Nicholson is a an Ox, I think, so in real life a Tiger would have no chance against an Ox..or that’s the theory at least…so…we love movies, don’t we…
        Hey,I3, have a gr8 trip, and we would like to see some nice pics of you with those pretty SQ flight attendants if you get a chance to stop by their airport lounge maybe, and we def. expect U to watch the charts all the time for us ;) & issue a 10-digit code like U did in October like 1025201211…..when U see something, OK? Thanks!

      • Ronin I3 says:

        Hi CB, I’ll try to upload the travel pics for you right here..

        http://www.flickr.com/photos/69752877@N08/

      • CB says:

        thanks I3. That will be fun. Hope ur gna come up with some good titles 4 em like u like to do. If Lee’s predictions pan out (they will, of course), maybe you’ll need to just say : “This is how I missed the biggest stock market sell-off in history while enjoying some pretty darn spicy food.” ; )
        P.s. ur travelling during mercury retrograde -so don’t forget ur passports, guys.

  56. mokiepon says:

    Thanks Tony! What a great day! Melinda

    • pooch77 says:

      M left some money on the table but my job calls me away at times so need to be careful,sold those calls at 1.65 and they ran to 2.05 though i paid .81….lets rock n roll tomorrow my last trading day and i will be in Mexico for all next week

      • mokiepon says:

        pooch, I know what you mean about your job calling you away, but I’m happy to have my job right now. I want to be rich and retired… What are the chances.

        Mexico, eh? Well, have a great time. As for tomorrow, I’m not trading Thursday either. Have to buy some items for kiddos before I put any more money in markets, and I’m perpetually long anyway.

        M

      • mokiepon says:

        pooch, where in Mexico you going? M

      • pooch77 says:

        Puerto Vallarta

      • pooch77 says:

        Stick around we will get you rich n retired

      • mokiepon says:

        Oh pooch, Puerto Vall. is a beautiful place! Have a great, great time!
        Not to worry, I’m sticking with it to try to get the best out of this market while I can. Work it on the upside, then, on the downside. I so want to be retired, but won’t happen any time soon. Always welcome friendly opinions that can help get me there. M

  57. mokiepon says:

    So, do you think that little downturn at the end of trading today is start of wave 2V of int. iii? Anybody? M

    • pooch77 says:

      No i think we get rejected after we hit 1521-24 .M ,iam just commenting on 1-2 day trades so nothing longer than that

      • mokiepon says:

        pooch, I’d love to catch wave3 of this v up. I’m going to have to watch this a bit longer to find a good trading entry. Nothing available until Friday or Monday for me and I’m not shorting counter-trend this time, unless it really, really REALLY looks promising. M

  58. mokiepon says:

    pooch77 says:
    February 27, 2013 at 2:45 pm
    Looks like we gap up tomorrow 1521-24,not even close to sell signal….damn day job

    pooch, I know EXACTLY how you feel! M

  59. Ronin I3 says:

    Are you a good pilot?

  60. selhai says:

    Tony,

    PUG has updated both his daily and weekly forecasts today. Worth a hard look. Still looking at 1700+

    http://pugsma.wordpress.com/longer-term-sp-500-view/

    Regards,

  61. pbnj123 says:

    Thank you Tony
    Off to roll ;-)
    Cheers

  62. CB says:

    thanks Tony. This market likes V-shapes a lot (as in victory, doen’t it? ;)
    straight up or straight down “I gotcha” kinda market? interrupted by days(sss) of just pure boredom when it wants to..

  63. Lee says:

    Thanks Homie

Comments are closed.