tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening then volatile day, DOW +116

Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.7%. Europe opened lower and lost 2.1%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 9:00 Case-Shiller was reported higher: +6.8% vs +5.5%, and the FHFA housing index was reported higher: +0.6% vs +0.6%. The market gapped up at the open, for the third day in a row, opening at SPX 1494 and rising to 1498 by 10:00. At 10:00 FED chairman Bernanke offered his report to the senate: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/bernanke20130226a.htm. Also at 10:00 New home sales were reported higher: 437K vs 369K, and Consumer confidence was reported higher: 69.0 vs 58.6. The market soon after headed lower, hitting SPX 1488 by 10:30, bouncing to 1494 by 11:00, and then declining to 1485 by 12:00. With the chairman’s testimony over, and the european markets closed the market started to rally. Nearing the close the SPX hit 1499, then closed at 1497.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.70%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.45%. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude slipped 50 cents, Gold rallied $19, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1440 and and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Tomorrow: Durable goods orders at 8:30, Pending homes sales at 10:00, and FED chairman Bernanke reports to Congress at 10:00.

Another gap up opening continued four trading days of volatility since the market closed at SPX 1531 last wednesday. Since then the market has declined to SPX 1497, rallied to 1526, and now declined to 1485 today. On the surface this looks like an ABC zigzag Minor wave 4. The previous two Minor 4’s took between 4 and 8 days, had extreme oversold hourly RSI’s and oversold daily RSI’s. This pullback fits those characteristics. Also this last decline had a consecutive string of lower highs/lows (1519-1514-1507-1499-1494) until this afternoon’s rally. Still carrying the Minor 4 labeling on the SPX charts.

Short term support is at SPX 1471/75 and 1463/64, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Short term momentum continues to display a positive divergence. The short term OEW charts remain negative with the reversal level now at SPX 1509. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
This entry was posted in Updates and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

152 Responses to tuesday update

  1. pooch77 says:

    Looks like we gap up tomorrow 1521-24,not even close to sell signal….damn day job

  2. CygnetNoir says:

    For anyone thinking the YEN has put in some sort of bottom, it looks like it may be putting the finishing touches on 3 waves down from Monday’s high, basis the JPY.USD futures (6J). It will be interesting to see if the market will rise with the Yen, or has it become too addicted to cheap Saki, and force the Yen down again?

  3. Lee says:

    That’ll work Tony!… pivot smivot time
    Good call Bud

  4. mokiepon says:

    Has any news of any kind come out about The Sequester or Budget? M

  5. budfox9450 says:

    Tony – Having a nice day – well done…

  6. CygnetNoir says:

    Ladies and gentleman, if you look out the cabin window, you will see that we have just entered the atmosphere of the 1523 pivot. While some slight turbulence is to be expected, we’ll nonetheless be arriving at new rally highs shortly. Thank you for flying OEW Airlines, an have a nice day.

  7. pooch77 says:

    Going to short into Friday but probably not today,charts are still saying up.

    • mokiepon says:

      pooch, I don’t blame you. It’s so borderline, I’d just sit back and watch.

      CN’s having a blast, isn’t he! LOL! I love watching people have fun in the markets. M

      • CygnetNoir says:

        Yesterday I watched my 12 point short evaporate, so sure I was that we were going to see 1475. I gave up 12 points in the hope of an extra five. So today, for me, is a bit of redemption. Most days are not this easy, and so most days are not this fun.

        By the way, I can count five li’l waves up out of the tiny degree 4 that ended 1:30ish EST, and so I would suppose that if we see ESH 1514 before we see 1517, then this rally may be too tuckered out to go much more today. 13.25, and we likely have the highs until tomorrow, or even Friday. ESH 1515.50/75 right now. I’d like to see the push higher not waste too much more time if we want a 1520+ print before the close.

      • mokiepon says:

        CN, you deserve the fun! Life is short, so go for it.

        1517 & chg now, so 1520 is very possible. What a rally!

        Oh, my vlccf looks really nice. I love that little sm. cap w/big div! M

  8. pbnj123 says:

    Tony?
    Not following the iii on the DOW
    I am sure you will get to it this evening in the post – buy hmmmm he wonders???
    Thank you
    Cheers

  9. CygnetNoir says:

    Ok, it’s 2:10 EST – watch this … I love this part. Grab your pop corn, and get ready for a tall glass of fresh squeezed short seller! It’s best served when you are long, I might add.

  10. CygnetNoir says:

    I thought for sure I’d see Lee or HD with a “Pivot Time” shout out to the 1514 test. I’d love to see a 10 point pullback to use as an add-on, but methinks it not coming today man. 1523 by the close – You heard it right here folks – 1523 pivot range by the close! Get’em while they’re cheap, ’cause thewy ain’t gettin’ no cheaper. Not today, at any rate…

  11. M1 says:

    Tony,
    Are you suggesting interm iv may be in place (Dow Alt Count) ??
    Thanks

  12. pooch77 says:

    Wow cant believe but are gonna test 1514,could start nosebleed soon!!!!!

  13. pooch77 says:

    1510-12 but getting toppy

  14. CygnetNoir says:

    Stingy with the pullbacks, they are … smells wave 3-ish, no?

    • H D says:

      X wave, ask Lee :mrgreen:

    • mokiepon says:

      CN, wouldn’t be surprised. This push up is very strong. Serves me right for dumping my udow, but it’s not the first mistake I’ve ever made, nor will it be the last. M

      • CygnetNoir says:

        what? did they run out of shares? You can buy it back, Melinda. I do all the time. My dad always says, “I’d rather be out wishing I was in, than in wishing I was out.” I always say “I’d rather be in and happy that out and angry.”

        My dad will forever be far more mature than I.

      • mokiepon says:

        CN, I’ve learned NOT TO TRADE when I’m very, very tired. Maybe I’ll feel better the next couple days. M

  15. CygnetNoir says:

    Tony, assuming we are 1552 bound, do you have a time frame for this trip? Also, do you feel that being a wave 5, the Dow is more likely to hit target than the SP? And for a final thought, what would your target for the DJ-30 be, 14400-500?

  16. CygnetNoir says:

    Daily SP, DJ, RUT all have a pretty ABC down (SP-500 = 1497-1525-1485) now wave 1 of minor 5 up, imho; unless we only now in 3 of 3 of minor 3!

  17. pbnj123 says:

    So far ;-) the VIX sell – equities buy set up is on course for confirmation as well as NYMO.
    Day ain’t over yet though
    Cheers

  18. CygnetNoir says:

    Tony, what happened to the list of recent comments on the side of your blog?

  19. pooch77 says:

    Looks like 1508 next

  20. H D says:

    GM all, simple ZZ into 1499 IMO GL

    • CygnetNoir says:

      I’m thinking more along the lines of “Welcome to minor 5, enjoy your flight,” but man I have been wrong so many times, especially recently, all I can say is, well, what do you know – we have a market!

  21. mokiepon says:

    Wishing Everyone good trading today. This is exactly the kind of day I hate. Can’t tell which way it’s going to break, if it breaks at all. Maybe it will move with the reports to be released. TTYL, Melinda

    • CygnetNoir says:

      You never know which way the break will come, only that it will. You never know whether the break will carry through, or cary you out on stretcher. All I know is that you gotta be in it to win it, but use a stop loss, ’cause if you lose all your marbles, you have to go home.

      My thoughts for today: If we break yesterday’s highs and hold above them for more than a minute or five, I’m long. Below yesterday’s lows, and similarly, if we hold below longer than it takes to clean out stops, then I get short, and I’ll be watching the 50 day MA’s ’cause whether you like it or not, the institutions who buy and sell the vast quantity of stock available watch those lines too. If we do go lower, I’d like to see the market close above those lines, and preferable well off of whaever lows were struck. That will set up the +divergence that all the technical traders will be looking for. If we close at the lows, especially at or below those 50 day lines, I’ll start to fret a litle bit about that trip I was hoping to take to the 1552 pivot aboard the ES express.

      Good Luck today to you you, Melinda, all of our happy band of brothers and sisters! Even you, yenguy, wherever you are …

      • pbnj123 says:

        Good luck to you today as well – 10:00 will pass and I’m either in or out after that point as well.
        Cheers

    • pooch77 says:

      Wee i can post today.FWIW my charts are showing a break of 1500 than 1505 ,will update if i see change

    • mokiepon says:

      CN, LOL! You are so right on all counts there. I’m just too tired to play today. Guess I’ll miss some great action.

      pb, what you describe today is what I was feeling yesterday. 10am, either in or out.

      pooch, ride it well, dawg! Thanks for keeping me updated on your charts; I really need the assist right now, so much going on.

      M

  22. M1 says:

    Thanks, Tony.

  23. torehund says:

    Hang seng from top 2007 descended in an A then mage a B from bear market botton and should have made a C at 10 000. But the wave was bent upwards from 2011 until today. The pattern is mostly done(bend down and see A=C), and a wave 1 may start. That will be an insane rally.

    • torehund says:

      And South Korea might get inflation later on making other countries more competitive. But firstly a multiyear gangam style rally (exuberance contra Prechter, dollar nominated eqivalents, lol). I see USD decline to at last vs NOK for quite some time until it reaches 4-4,5 nok per dollar). Norway is stuck in a housing bubble and the government cant increase interest rates as it would further make export difficult due to a rising NOK. So the bubble will continue. Poor government….and what malaise awaits us down the road.
      An inexpensive housing market is the foundation of future prosperity, so the US is at the beginning of prosperity. “In uttter weakness we are the strongest”

  24. Young Tom says:

    Torehund

    Small caps are also wealth generators, as you so have commented numerous times. The Russell has been the best sector with high ultra high beta and good alpha. This correction has them lagging off the correction low. That’s to be expected, until confidence, or gambling, returns. If this is to be continued into int v, to end major 3 will get the most bang for the buck. Just doesn’t smell like a top to me. Not enough people sucked in, and cab drivers and shoe shine personalities are not talking up the market.

    • torehund says:

      I agree, but TNA is eaten off so I would advice just to go unleveraged etfs. As I predict from hang seng market could go off at any time. But trading big patterns means one may be wrongfooted for months and then leveraged etfs arent suited. But if one manages to trade the small waves TNA works well.

      • Young Tom says:

        Good advice. Don’t chew off more than you can swallow

      • torehund says:

        Reading small waves is an artform, reading larger patterns is a more laid back approach that may be revarding if one mix it with fundamentals that are projected to strengthen or fundamentals that is still not perceived by the market.
        One vivid example is ARWR(mcap 40 mill), it might just as well have enjoyed a mcap of 1,4 bill like Alynam. I think its even 10-100 times more valuable than the former into the futurere. Combining this with a rough EW long term analysis could be rewarding. There are many stocks out there that are as yet undiscovered by the public and WS.

    • torehund says:

      Expecting growth and creeping inflation, small caps protects better than large caps. Also the gains in small caps outweighs any currency losses.
      Small caps are not outperforming sp500 last year a sign optimism isnt there yet..

    • torehund says:

      Tonys site is one of very few places where it isnt very prolific to be a contrarian. I have become more agreeable person after entering his site.

  25. mokiepon says:

    Here’s a bullish read for tomorrow: http://doctorboom.blogspot.com

    M

    • 7dayyss says:

      Ah, so you are keeping an eye on the Doc! I don’t know how long you’ve been watching him, but he has some nice “forking charts” he puts up sometimes! Mark

      • mokiepon says:

        Hi Mark! I watch everyone’s charts. Doc seems a very person, has some great forking charts and I’ve noticed that when he’s on a roll, he’s really rolling. I chickened out on the gold short and have been kicking myself ever since. Nobody’s right all the time, but it’s wise to see what’s out and about. Melinda

      • mokiepon says:

        I guess I should have said “Doc seems a very kind person”… I’ve had to repeat 1st grade a lot of times myself, so I know how he feels. LOL! M

      • 7dayyss says:

        Ahh, good ole 1st grade, I think we all end up taking that class over from time to time!!!

  26. We received a signal for a new uptrend that will last a few weeks, with a target range of 1,618 – 1635, with 1,626 as most probable on $SPX, and 14,788 – 14,920 on the DOW, with 14,856 as most probable.

    A close below today’s low invalidates our projections

    http://www.tradesfordummies.blogspot.com

  27. MONDAY, AFTER MARKET UPDATE, 2013/02/25

    A. SHORT TERM INDICATORS/SYSTEMS:
    eliott PSTT: remains on a SELL signal. a thursday’S, 2013/02/21, close below 1511 spx triggered a SELLl signal AND IS STILL ON A SELL, the PSTT is the most heavily weighted indicator for signalling a change in weekly to monthly wave counts and trend changes.
    qqq indicator: -8, down 1 point, has now triggered a sell short signal on thursday.(need 0 to sell ………and -6 to short. +6 is a buy and remains a buy until 0 is triggered. heavily weighs momentum in unison with smart buyer activity.
    ……….a -6 remains a short until 0 is triggered).
    smart money indicator: -6 , up 3 points. remains on sell signal. a -8, once triggered is usually a sell and remains so until a +7 is triggered.
    feb. monthly 2faced longs 1.85% loss today. holds for an entire month.
    feb. monthly 2faced shorts 0.76% profit today. holds for an entire month. monthly combined longs and shorts net about a 1.74% profit to date this month vs -1.48% for spy.
    weekly 2faced longs, 1.27% profit today. holds longs for a full week. $ENMD posted a 25% gain today, i would sell it and repurchase on a pullback in next few days.
    weekly 2faced shorts, 0.13% loss today. holds shorts for a full week.

    i use the weekly 2faced stocks as day trading candidates.

    $SPY -2.04% today.

    B. LONG TERM INDICATORS:
    crash indicator at +4 versus last friday’s +2.next update will be on 2013/02/29. a rare -10 signals a 2008 type of crash.all other long term indicators remain on a buy.

    C. TRADES/ALLOCATION:
    41% invested, 41% short, 0% long.
    see blog for today’s trade details. waiting on minor pullback to possibly re-institute more long positions.

    D. STOCK WATCH:
    SHORT break out watch:$GUID, $RPRX, $RDEN $ELLI broke down on thursday.
    LONG break out watch: $OESX broke out last monday,, $CZR broke out thursday, $RSOL, $NFLX, $ANGI.

    E. MISCELLANEOUS COMMENTS:
    a SELL short signal has finally been triggered by the elliott “PSTT” indicator as well as the qqq indicator last week thursday. locked in some decent short term profits. i will probably add some non-tna shorts this week.

    see blog for today’s trades. i will soon be trading the weekly 2faced system in my account, a conservative profit goal will be 1% to 2% per week after commissions, that would be about a 67% return compounded over 52 weeks at a minimum, not bad for a market neutral strategy if it continues to work for me.

    see the “ABOUT” section of the blog for more detailed descriptions of the use of all the above indicators and different trading portfolios.

    follow the comments section of my blog for regular indicator and trade updates, usually prepared on a regular basis usually prior to opening bell.

  28. pas1968 says:

    Hi Tony,
    What are the chances that this 4-year bull market ended on 19 February @ 1531 and now headed for a 50%/62% fib retrace to the 1000 to 1100 range over the next year or 2?
    I assume a move below 1475 support & thru 1448 will begin to confirm this bearish scenario?
    What price action would have to occur for you to start thinking bear?
    Cheers

  29. budfox9450 says:

    $NYSE index – the 34/8 moving averages – look dangerously close to crossing over
    to the downside….

  30. andysingal says:

    Tony, Is intermediate 5 of wave is till possible for this week. Thanks Andy

  31. andysingal says:

    Tony, is intermediate 5 to complete major 3 is still on for this week… 155ish
    Thanks

  32. Young Tom says:

    If they gap them down on Wednesday, I’m a buyer. Any takers.

    • pooch77 says:

      May gap down slightly at worse,looking for a break of 1500 to 1505

      • Young Tom says:

        I like that. Will get back to you on level to watch if violated.

      • Young Tom says:

        Pooch

        Here’s my line in the sand. 1480 on a closing basis. I wish it could be my own proprietary call, but it’s a consensus. It’s worth a shot. Look at the number of posts on Monday, very nervous group here. Gap down on Wednesday, would set up the perfect pyschological event to draw in shorts, only to have them reversed. IMHO.

  33. budfox9450 says:

    Temp. in the lower 50’s – Oh – that won’t last….

  34. mokiepon says:

    Great Update, Tony. Much thanks.

    Someone(s) must think something’s up, uvxy moving between up 4-5% AH’s. M

  35. mjtplayer says:

    Today’s move in the Italian 2yr note was staggering:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBTPGR2:IND:

    • mokiepon says:

      Thanks player. Don’t know what Europe will do tomorrow, but notice today we had Bernanke and good reports and couldn’t manage to close at 1500; stayed at neckline level (1497ish) most of the day. And those puts bother me. Ah well, I’m long anyway, but not adding and might sit out the rest of the week. M

      • torehund says:

        M- lots of fuzz in media, just to give the dollar a break…keep focus on not selling, we are currently buying chunks of the world at bargain prices—-

      • mokiepon says:

        torehund, I’m long anyway (old longs held for years), but not wanting to add. M

      • pooch77 says:

        M, A.H.trading and overnight futures have not meant much recently,lets see what morning brings

      • mjtplayer says:

        The extreme XLF put volume in the June contract tells me Europe/Italy may come back to the front burner, would support Tony’s bullish USD outlook also.

        USD up, gold up, Treasuries up – everything else down if that’s the case; watch 2yr & 10yr Italian yields.

  36. selhai says:

    Tony,

    In between all the ‘noise’, you may like to be reminded of PUG’s current projection, which he did just over a month ago.

    He has a 3rd topping at 1531 – perfect – followed by a correction into the 1480s, before the SPX heads up to 1551 or higher.

    http://pugsma.wordpress.com/longer-term-sp-500-view/

    Of course, he’s C3 rather than C1, but that doesn’t matter at this point.

    Regards,

  37. andysingal says:

    so this is wave 4 Tony with wave 5 to come, thanks

  38. moo42 says:

    Man, did I ever pick a crazy time to learn OEW! Whew….I’m exhausted!

    • mokiepon says:

      Not really, moo. Would think this is exactly the kind of action needed to learn, lots of movement. If you can work through this, you can probably work through anything! Welcome! M

    • torehund says:

      Its all about managing differnt dimensions, and the more miniscule patterns are the more difficult it becomes. Pick and trust a long pattern and sweat it out, trading smallish requires greater effort and skills.
      It depends what u trade index etfs are easier than individual stocks, smallcaps in particular.
      For general direction, look where the world is today compared to 2000 !

      • Young Tom says:

        Torehund

        Itching to get back in TNA. Thoughts?

      • torehund says:

        Tom, TNA is a wealth destructor if one gets into the choppy action. I am highly leveraged on my small cap buys but they arent eaten away if I miss some waves. Considering many small caps are at crazy low valuations, TNA should project upwards also.. If I get better er on the small wave stuff I may try etfs later.
        That said the marco worries inbetween earnings may last a while longer. But many of my small caps should start wave 3 up, so TNA would probably work well.

Comments are closed.