monday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening sold off, DOW -216

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.9%: mostly Japan. European markets opened higher and gained 1.0%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market gapped up at the open to SPX 1523. The market had closed at SPX 1516 on friday. In the opening minutes the SPX hit 1524, dipped to 1521, then rallied to 1526 by 10:00. That was the high for the day. Soon after the Euro started to sell off when concern arose about the Italian elections. European markets declined and the SPX followed. By 11:00 the SPX closed the opening gap when it hit 1514. The SPX bounced 1519 by 11:30, then dropped to 1508 by 12:00. Another rally attempt failed at SPX 1514 by 1:00, then the SPX dropped to 1502 by 2:00. One more rally attempt failed at SPX 1507 by 3:00, then the market dropped nearly 20 points to 1488 by the close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -1.70%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.40%. Bonds gained 27 ticks, Crude slid 80 cents, Gold rallied $13, and the USD was higher. Medium term support drops to the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance now at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Tomorrow: Case-Shiller and the FHFA housing index at 9:00, then New home sales and Consumer confidence at 10:00. Also at 10:00 FED chairman Bernanke presents the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Senate.

The market gapped up at the open today for the second day in a row. This gap up, after hitting SPX 1526, was sold off nearly as quickly as it occurred. During the early morning surge the SPX came within 5 points of its uptrend high, while the DOW made a new high. The SPX ran into resistance at the 1523 pivot, the market then sold off throughout the day. At the end of the day the market had broken the 1499 pivot range and closed at SPX 1488.

Two potential scenarios come to mind. First, Minor wave 4 of this uptrend is still underway. Second, we just experienced another Minor wave 5 failure in the SPX. With the DOW making a new uptrend high today this would somewhat support the second scenario. Maybe we have just seen the uptrend high and are already in a correction. The timing is about right, but the uptrend is much shorter than expected. Unless Intermediate wave iii is subdividing. Which would appear quite unlikely considering the overall pattern of the bull market. The two options, from our perspective, are a difficult call at this time.

Short term support drops to SPX SPX 1463/64 and the 1440 pivot, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Short term momentum swung from extremely overbought to quite oversold in one day. The short term OEW charts turned negative in the morning with the reversal level now at SPX 1513. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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190 Responses to monday update

  1. torehund says:

    Expecting soon the euro to resume its uptrend vs the dollar, and in a BIG way..

  2. theyenguy says:

    You write that the market is in a long term bull market.

    I reply that this is incorrect.

    The very linchpin of ECB sovereign debt support, as well as the capstone of Liberalism’s Banker Regime of Credit Stimulus, has collapsed, as Greece, GREK, traded 8.2% lower. The nation that defines Clientelism, Barriers To Competition, Unionism, and Corruption, is leading Europe, and the World into Investment, Economic and Political Failure.

    Sovereignty begets seigniorage, that is moneyness, and trust in the debt of the sovereigns, that is in the US, VTI, Germany, EWG, Spain, EWP, Italy, EWI, Greece, GREK, Germany, EWG, China, YAO, Australia, EWA, Japan, EWJ, Norway, NORW, Finland, EFNL, Sweden, EWD, and others produced Peak Commodities, DBC, on September 14, 2012, Peak Credit, on December, 6, 2012, Peak Wealth, on January 28, 2013, and Peak Currencies, and thus Peak Seigniorage, and Peak Prosperity on February 11, 2013.

    The sovereigns of Liberalism, nation states and their central banks gave seigniorage to money, that is wealth, producing the seigniorage of investment choice. Asset Managers such as BLK, WDR, EV, STT and WETF, Investment Bankers such as JPM, the World’s Leading Banks such as SAN, NBG, RBS, LYG, BCS, HDB, IBN, and UBS, The Too Big To Fail Banks such as BAC, and C, the Regional Banks such as SNV, HBAN, and RF, coined Liberalism’s money, consisting of fiat investments; some of which were given more seigniorage than others, such as Gaming Stocks, BJK, Leveraged Buyouts, PSP, Small Cap Growth Companies, such as CSL, Global Producers, IP, and GE, Dig And Dirt Equipment Manufacturers, MTK, Agricultural Companies, MON, and Small Cap Revenue Companies such as LAD, to name just a few.

    Where seigniorage exists, that is where moneyness manifests, there exists a sovereign producing it.

    New seigniorage, that is new moneyness, is coming on the death of the fiat money system, that is on the death of the Milton Friedman Free To Choose Floating Currency Regime. The sovereigns of the Era of Credit and the Epoch of Fiat Asset Appreciation and the Age of Prosperity are dying on the exhaustion of the world central banks’ monetary authority and on the death of of currencies. Kayla Tausche of CNBC reports JPMorgan to slash 4,000 staff, $1 Billion in costs. And Bespoke Investment Group reports Euro Spreads widen out. Bloomberg reports Bank credit risk surges in Europe amid Italian election deadlock. The cost of insuring against default on European bank debt surged to the highest in three months on concern deadlock in Italy’s elections will trigger a flight from risky assets as a political vacuum roils markets. Gridlock in parliament means gridlock in the economy, Alberto Gallo, the head of European macro credit research at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London, wrote in a client note. The longer the instability lasts, the more the recession can deepen, pushing up unemployment, defaults and bad loans. In the worst-case scenario, the weaker banks could see deposit outflows re-emerge ” The Markit iTraxx Europe Index of swaps on investment-grade companies rose seven basis points to 120, the highest since November 30, 2012.

    Operating through Destiny, Revelation 1:1, Jesus Christ is replacing the Banker Regime of Liberalism with the Beast Regime of Authoritarianism, and with that, Crony Capitalism, in America, European Socialism, in France, and Greek Socialism, in Greece, is being replace by Regional Governance, Totalitarian Collectivism, and Debt Servitude, in Euroland, in fulfillment of Revelation 13:1-4.

  3. We received a signal for a new uptrend that will last a few weeks, with a target range of 1,618 – 1635, with 1,626 as most probable on $SPX, and 14,788 – 14,920 on the DOW, with 14,856 as most probable.

    A close below today’s low invalidates our projections

    http://www.tradesfordummies.blogspot.com

  4. pbnj123 says:

    I just want my rug back man – that’s all
    Any followers of the VIX sell – equities buy – the VIX did close back inside the BB.. step 2 complete all we need now is a close lower than todays – not sure how accurate the track record for this is but something to watch as VIX did pull back all the way into the close
    Cheers

  5. mjtplayer says:

    Anyone else see this? Massive put volume in the XLF, 75k contracts in the June $16 strike. Breakeven for this/these trades is the XLF fallng below $15.65 or at least 10% from here (currently $17.35)

    http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/?f=daily_analysis&ib_entity=llc

  6. kvilia says:

    Anyone expects further weakness or this small correction is over?

  7. pooch77 says:

    Lot more up to come yet

  8. mokiepon says:

    Watching the price of gold. More as a possible short soon than anything long. M

  9. pbnj123 says:

    Novice question here so go easy – but what could be said tomorrow that the market would like?
    Thanks

    • mokiepon says:

      pb, I don’t think there’s anything novice about your question. It’s THE question to ask up front. If Bernanke can’t give stocks at least closer to the 216 they lost yesterday AND the fact that we keep sitting at 1497ish and not going higher, it reads problematic to me. Just thought you’d like to know that someone else is asking the same question as you are. My answer, right now, it’s Europe (Italy) and Sequester. The constant hammering by media on “something old and something else old” is the biggest contributor. Not a purely technical opinion, but, it is what it is. M

      • pbnj123 says:

        Thank you

      • mokiepon says:

        Anytime, pb. I want to see a close near or above 1500 and14925ish, else I’ll just keep my old longs and sell udow. If it’s a mistake, then so be it. M

      • torehund says:

        Many stocks are working on a wave 2 down that retraces much of wave one. When 3 starts it should be smooth sailing for a while. Poppish action on some like ARWR but it pewters away. I once owned PPHM at 43 cents, it made an abc up (tip of the iceberg), finally 12 bagged. I sold at the abc at 93 cents. SO Cs no evil, hello to all on forum, sitting in Puerto Escondido, heading for Barra de la Cruz.

      • mokiepon says:

        I need me a job like torehund! LOL! M

      • torehund says:

        Melinda, its nice to be here, I am working on the waves, toughest job there is. Well picked up my shiny new board at a shop, building expectations….they have to be crushed, in an abc until new progress can be accomplished. So looking ahead some weeks from now.
        Like a new car, dent it and enjoy it !

      • CB says:

        enjoy the weather tore hund…sounds like ur in a great place!

      • mokiepon says:

        No dents in my car torehund! for the first time in years, driving a car with no dents. No no, dents,.. M

    • Lee says:

      No idea pbnj but Ive asked myself that before.

    • mokiepon says:

      Looking better… M

    • CB says:

      pbnj, abv. 1497 is good, and abv. 1515 is very good…that’s what I’ve heard today :) Gl guys!

  10. Ronin I3 says:

    saw you guys turn bullish so I went long @ 1482.75!!!! Even though I see 1470is more probable. Do I make any sense??!!

  11. rc1269 says:

    wedge complete. time to take a stab long methinks

  12. H D says:

    possible little EDT here with trap door potential.
    Admittedly I get my news on twitter but what the heck is so contraversial with the spending cuts. It’s like $85 cuts on $3500 spending that was unanamous just a couple weeks ago? What a bunch of tools.

  13. tjhere says:

    Usually do not post but @ 125 posts before lunch, what the heck! I do have a lot the Trend/Cycle/Fib Retrace tools drawn on my SPX/SPY Charts that cross/intersect/point to 1482 on March 1st. FYI

  14. Lee says:

    It was a pleasure ladies and gentlemen !
    GL and trade well !

  15. scatman12 says:

    Hey Lee

    Where is David Bannister thesr days.. our blog misses these favorite few…

    Sai

  16. H D says:

    Lee, so ur long?

  17. rc1269 says:

    intraday feels like SPX wants to wedge into 1488 in the next 30 mins and then spring higher

  18. Ronin I3 says:

    Heli-Ben,”My inflation # is the best one amongst all Fed Chairman can manipulate!”

  19. Lee says:

    Hear a lot from the bulls when were at the highs(ohhhhhhh) :)
    But what are u guys doing here ? Adding ..holding..selling ?
    This is a dip here and I’m curious.. I think theyll try and squeeze new shorts..

    • Lee says:

      Ill hang up and wait for my answer.
      .50 back in the pit @ 1492 watch those intradays when the circus is in town.
      ltr guys

      • CygnetNoir says:

        I hit the panic button on my longs a few days back when SP couldn’t hold a new high for even a few minutes. Short the ES right now from 95 with a hard stop for all to see at 98. I have a limit order at 78, and we’re just now tickling 85ish.

      • CygnetNoir says:

        Sorry, my stop is 98quarter, not even

    • pbnj123 says:

      Trapped long from my ii yesterday – holding but will look to cut if it gets ugly

      • Ronin I3 says:

        everyone loves a sweet deal or discount when shopping..Stock market is a total different animal. People love to overpay, the higher price the better!

    • rc1269 says:

      had a modest short going into yesterday and cleared it all out near the close. flat here and just sitting around picking my btt. thinking we could be in for a bigger turn, but won’t rule out a last push up in the next few days. just don’t think the headline environment is ripe for a rally tho

    • rc1269 says:

      and AAPL looks about ready for its next leg down. which shouldn’t help

    • budfox9450 says:

      Lee – Hello. I recently bought DSX, CAF, VNM in this decline. Adding to DSX
      at roughly 7.50, and VNM at 20.60-20.40. I like the, XIV/VXX trade. leaning toward
      XIV at 1475 ish…but the core holdings in the IRA’s are asian investment.
      I like the Bull market there….Bud

    • Young Tom says:

      Lee

      Bought the close yesterday. Waiting to see if we complete 5 down on C wave before adding more. Made a lousy short with SPXU in minor 4, was too early, and got a scratch. Don’t trade futures, only leveraged ETF around pivots, and individual equities and no-load Vanguard funds for position building. Waiting for intermediate v to complete and end major 3 for an overly aggressive short position.

      Any thoughts on AAPL

      Y2T

  20. H D says:

    10 point dip back from 1499 pivot. trades r working. weird.

  21. budfox9450 says:

    Tony – DSX…adding to my position at $7.80-7.50….good luck.

  22. bdoalex says:

    Just wondering….what if any impact inflation wise would the upcoming sequester cuts have? Would that give Bernanke more ammunition for more QE or less QE?

  23. Lee says:

    As Bobby Knight once said “Sit back and enjoy it”
    So sit back and enjoy Ben’s comments.
    GL !

  24. mokiepon says:

    I’m concerned about stalling in this area here around 1495-1500. Just hope Bernanke settles Sequester jitters and we keep rising. M

  25. pbnj123 says:

    Interesting that we bounced (so far anyway) off the 30 RSI(5) on the daily which from what I can tell is ideal for the bottom of a iv?
    Tony – is that correct or am I reaching?
    Cheers

  26. M1 says:

    Here we go again. BB should give us a powerful rally. He is the boss after all.
    GL

  27. Lee says:

    Thanks for the alternate DJIA count Tony

  28. pbnj123 says:

    Strikes and gutters – ups and downs
    I just want my carpet back man…it made the room ;-)

  29. mokiepon says:

    More people turned bearish overnight. Interesting. At least I get to be here for the open and about an hour afterward before Dr. Regardless of what position you might hold, best to your trading, as Tony would say. M

  30. 1charlie1 says:

    hi Tony…do I understand well?..its kinda interesting….if int III is done, it cant come much lower…top of int I is 1475…..lower means it cant be int IV but still ok for major 4 of int III…….if sell off continous, a major part of count is in doubt…

  31. alexhartley1 says:

    I am looking for further downside here and am not convinced yet that the 1475 area on the S&P will hold over the course of the next 2-3 days into 28th Feb. From 28th we should go slightly higher into 3/4th March.

    I had mentioned that I saw 6-8th March as a high. I think that’s wrong now. I think it will be a low and it could be much lower in the low 1400s. The 8th leads into the expiry week the following week and these weeks usually have an upside bias.

    I believe Tony’s comment about the Dow making a new high but not other US indicies is very significant for the market going forward for the next few months.

    I’ll most likely be completely wrong if we hold 1475 with ease in the next day or two. That’s happened plenty…..!

    • alexhartley1 says:

      I believe staying below 1500 tonight on a closing basis (after Bernanke has spoken) would be the first indication of much further downside! Perhaps the markets won’t rally on his chat…..

  32. MONDAY, AFTER MARKET UPDATE, 2013/02/25

    A. SHORT TERM INDICATORS/SYSTEMS:
    eliott PSTT: remains on a SELL signal. a thursday’S, 2013/02/21, close below 1511 spx triggered a SELLl signal AND IS STILL ON A SELL, the PSTT is the most heavily weighted indicator for signalling a change in weekly to monthly wave counts and trend changes.
    qqq indicator: -8, down 1 point, has now triggered a sell short signal on thursday.(need 0 to sell ………and -6 to short. +6 is a buy and remains a buy until 0 is triggered. heavily weighs momentum in unison with smart buyer activity.
    ……….a -6 remains a short until 0 is triggered).
    smart money indicator: -6 , up 3 points. remains on sell signal. a -8, once triggered is usually a sell and remains so until a +7 is triggered.
    feb. monthly 2faced longs 1.85% loss today. holds for an entire month.
    feb. monthly 2faced shorts 0.76% profit today. holds for an entire month. monthly combined longs and shorts net about a 1.74% profit to date this month vs -1.48% for spy.
    weekly 2faced longs, 1.27% profit today. holds longs for a full week. $ENMD posted a 25% gain today, i would sell it and repurchase on a pullback in next few days.
    weekly 2faced shorts, 0.13% loss today. holds shorts for a full week.

    i use the weekly 2faced stocks as day trading candidates.

    $SPY -2.04% today.

    B. LONG TERM INDICATORS:
    crash indicator at +4 versus last friday’s +2.next update will be on 2013/02/29. a rare -10 signals a 2008 type of crash.all other long term indicators remain on a buy.

    C. TRADES/ALLOCATION:
    41% invested, 41% short, 0% long.
    see blog for today’s trade details. waiting on minor pullback to possibly re-institute more long positions.

    D. STOCK WATCH:
    SHORT break out watch:$GUID, $RPRX, $RDEN $ELLI broke down on thursday.
    LONG break out watch: $OESX broke out last monday,, $CZR broke out thursday, $RSOL, $NFLX, $ANGI.

    E. MISCELLANEOUS COMMENTS:
    a SELL short signal has finally been triggered by the elliott “PSTT” indicator as well as the qqq indicator last week thursday. locked in some decent short term profits. i will probably add some non-tna shorts this week.

    see blog for today’s trades. i will soon be trading the weekly 2faced system in my account, a conservative profit goal will be 1% to 2% per week after commissions, that would be about a 67% return compounded over 52 weeks at a minimum, not bad for a market neutral strategy if it continues to work for me.

    see the “ABOUT” section of the blog for more detailed descriptions of the use of all the above indicators and different trading portfolios.

    follow the comments section of my blog for regular indicator and trade updates, usually prepared on a regular basis usually prior to opening bell.

  33. FRIDAY, AFTER MARKET UPDATE, 2013/02/22

    A. SHORT TERM INDICATORS/SYSTEMS:
    eliott PSTT: remains on a SELL signal. a thursday’S, 2013/02/21, close below 1511 spx triggered a SELLl signal AND IS STILL ON A SELL, the PSTT is the most heavily weighted indicator for signalling a change in weekly to monthly wave counts and trend changes.
    qqq indicator: -8, down 1 point, has now triggered a sell short signal on thursday.(need 0 to sell ………and -6 to short. +6 is a buy and remains a buy until 0 is triggered. heavily weighs momentum in unison with smart buyer activity.
    ……….a -6 remains a short until 0 is triggered).
    smart money indicator: -6 , up 3 points. remains on sell signal. a -8, once triggered is usually a sell and remains so until a +7 is triggered.
    feb. monthly 2faced longs 1.11% profit today. holds for an entire month.
    feb. monthly 2faced shorts 0.59% profit today. holds for an entire month. monthly combined longs and shorts net about a 2.84% profit to day this month vs +0.43% for spy.
    weekly 2faced longs, 2.41% profit today. holds longs for a full week.
    weekly 2faced shorts, 0.32% loss today. holds shorts for a full week.
    a net 4.71% profit for combo longs and shorts this week or 2.35% on entire 20 stock position – positions closed at friday’s close.
    i use the weekly 2faced stocks as day trading candidates.

    $SPY+0.98% today.

    B. LONG TERM INDICATORS:
    crash indicator at +4 versus last friday’s +2.next update will be on 2013/02/29. a rare -10 signals a 2008 type of crash.all other long term indicators remain on a buy.

    C. TRADES/ALLOCATION:
    23% invested, 10% short, 13% long.
    see blog for today’s trade details. waiting on minor pullback to possibly re-institute more long positions.

    D. STOCK WATCH:
    SHORT break out watch:$GUID, $RPRX, $RDEN $ELLI broke down on thursday.
    LONG break out watch: $OESX broke out last monday,, $CZR broke out thursday, $RSOL, $NFLX, $ANGI.

    E. MISCELLANEOUS COMMENTS:
    a SELL short signal has finally been triggered by the elliott “PSTT” indicator as well as the qqq indicator. locked in some decent short term profits, awaiting a short term pop to short more tna . i will probably add some non-tna shorts as well.
    see blog for today’s trades. i will soon be trading the weekly 2faced system in my account, a conservative profit goal will be 1% to 2% per week after commissions, that would be about a 67% return compounded over 52 weeks at a minimum, not bad for a market neutral strategy if it continues to work for me.

    see the “ABOUT” section of the blog for more detailed descriptions of the use of all the above indicators and different trading portfolios.

    follow the comments section of my blog for regular indicator and trade updates, usually prepared on a regular basis usually prior to opening bell.

  34. rc1269 says:

    starting to sound like folks are pretty long here. lots of ‘hoping’ for the big bounce tomorrow. doesn’t leave me feeling very optimistic

  35. mokiepon says:

    To: I3 – I appreciate the new nickname (Queen VIX), as opposed to …whatever… Anyway, let me tell you, I almost got my head handed to me. It was 10% skill and 90% hunch. I just happened to play the right hunch at the right time. Which leaves me wondering what to do tomorrow if stocks continue down. I’m literally betting on a bounce at 50SMA, if not before. If that doesn’t happen, I might start selling some of my longs.

    Have Dr.’s appt. in the morning. TTY All in the afternoon. Happy trading to Everyone! M

  36. gary61b says:

    Tony, great update as always, I would tend to lean with your first scenario on the spx and others with the simple zig zag correction w4, and as the dow I would call it a regular flat where B wave terminated at or slightly beyond wave A starting point….. Not far enough to call it an irregular or running flat where B wave ends way beyond the start of wave A..

  37. budfox9450 says:

    Tony – sure you noted the SP/DJI 60 min RSI – Bullish ‘D…
    However, to counter that positive piece of info, the SP Weekly
    BoYu indicator – gave a weekly Sell today….Bud

  38. market maker gapped up xlf ,smh higher after market on the 15-minute chart. should open higher 30-50 on the dow lets see if they can hold it there into bernake,s testimony

  39. M1 says:

    BB day tomorrow. The market should rally strong.

  40. I would like to take this opportunity and offer the following count:
    Nov 16, 2012 -to- Nov 23, 2012 (WAVE-1), Nov 28 end of WAVE-2, Dec 18 end of WAVE-3, Dec 31 start of WAVE-5, which has been unfolding since then as Jan 4 – Jan 8 – Feb 19, and currently in wave-4 within this larger WAVE-5, with a Fib projection of 1,487.91 on the $SPX, which was met at the close today.

    http://tradesfordummies.blogspot.com/

  41. mjtplayer says:

    If a failed 5th to complete int 3, then the entire int 3 structure looks very similar to int 1

  42. Greg Polites says:

    Hi Tony; This is really starting to look like a change in trend for equities or at least the end of the early 2013 rally. Both the STORMM and R.Walker indicators generated a sell signal last week (http://hgpolites3.wordpress.com/). Copper and the Canadian dollar both peaked 2-3 months ago which are strong leading equity indicators. The USD generated several STORMM buy signals in the last few weeks and has successfully tested its 200dMA. Finally, gold and commodities have extreme oversold STORMM indicators which forcasts a minor bounce (like we’re seeing today) followed by renewed price erosion. Not a pretty picture if it continues…….. but maybe BenB will come to the rescue this week……
    Cheers,
    Greg

  43. llerias7 says:

    Thinking in a minor 4 whit an A-B-C structure. If so tomorrow will be back in the green. It is already happen before…

  44. Lee says:

    Thanks Tony
    prices rules time drools

  45. Cliff Uzan says:

    Looks the market is impulsing downward. Of course, it could be a trick. Although the decline in the SPX seems to be 5 waves.

  46. budfox9450 says:

    Tony has made several – extremely good observations – which though is correct?
    If, I look at time – I would lean toward the – W4 is still ungoing. This might suggest 1474
    as a target. However – the fact the DJI made a NH today, and not other indices is
    forboding, a steep decline – this is true. I suspect – from a time perspective,
    the low for this 5 wave decline, and we are in 3 now. Will come about on the 26th,
    or 27th. Then the should reverse and we go up into the Mar 16th, as I previously
    suggested…then the 1552 would be in play…..

    • mokiepon says:

      bud, it seems to me that dji has been lagging and this move today could quite possibly be a clue to which index will move next. Just a thought. M

  47. tjhere says:

    My 2 cents: If Minor 2 was so convoluted why should Minor 4 be so simplistic as to complete in 2 days? Haven’t broken 1499 Pivot “yet”. Beside there is room to play around lower and not overlap the “1” of multiple degrees. May have been too oversold last week to set up a Neg Divergence on the RSI but this could be setting up a nice launch for Minor 5. Best regards,

    • tjhere says:

      Sorry Edit above to say “too OVER BOUGHT last week” Proof & you shall not look so foolish

      • CygnetNoir says:

        It is not unusual for waves 2 & 4 of the same degree to differ in both time and complexity. It is so common, in fact, that it is often referreD to as “the rule of alternation,” whereby if wave 2 is a simple abc, then one would expect wave 4 of the same degree to be a flat. Since in this case minor wave 2 was a flat, then it made sense to expect wave 4 to be simple and quick. I think Tony was right – minor 4 ended last Thursday. Of course, this means minor 5 and intermediate 3 ended this morning.

        Time, and the waves will tell. And if they don’t, Tony will ;)

      • tjhere says:

        CN Tks for the reply. I am familiar with the Alt Rule. No joust or challenge here but MORE complex does not imply MORE simple to the point of being simplistic. Perhaps I should simply say Minor 4 continues. Double bottom anyone. Or in my case double bottoms up because I officially declare it is Miller Time & I am out of here. Have a GREAT “Full Moon” Evening everyone

    • budfox9450 says:

      TJ – the answer to you question, ref W4 – may lie in the path and expect high
      for the USD – the Dollar is at 81.74 now. Note, the time for this advance has
      been accelerating to the upside. I am looking for about an 84 number on USD.
      Agian – given the speed of the dollar advance, my thinking is 1-2 days, USD
      falls, or moves only sideways in a shall correction, then the risk is 1474 will not hold.
      But that 12 week cycle, I made ref to comes in on the 3/16 for a high. We would
      need to build that low, aka W4 quickly, is my estimate….and we are at 1487 close
      today….

    • CB says:

      Tjhere:” but this could be setting up a nice launch for Minor 5.” Agree w U Tj as well as with lleras, based on the intraday RSI today.

  48. CB says:

    thanks Tony. As oversold as at the end of dec ’12. Hmm, Bernanke coming up ..

  49. torehund says:

    A larger ABC….

  50. Wow …. a 2 day minor 4 and a 2 day minor 5 ????

Comments are closed.