wednesday update

SHORT TERM: market rediscovers pullbacks, DOW -36

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Retail sales were reported positive: +0.1% vs +0.5%, Export prices were higher: +0.5% vs -0.2%, as were Import prices: +0.2% vs -0.1%. The market opened higher, two points above yesterday’s SPX 1519 close. It bounced around a bit before moving higher still. At 10:00 Business inventories were reported positive +0.1% vs +0.3%. Around 10:30 the SPX made a new uptrend higher 1525, displayed a small negative divergence, and then began to pullback. By 11:30 the SPX hit 1518, bounced to 1521 by 2:00, and then pulled back even further. At 3:00 the SPX hit 1516, then bounced into a 1520 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.35%. Bonds lost 11 ticks, Crude slipped 35 cents, Gold dropped $9, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1499 and 1440 pivots, with resistance at the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, then senate testimony from FED governor Tarullo at 10:30.

The market opened higher today, made a new uptrend high, then had its largest pullback in nearly the past week of trading. With a negative divergence on the hourly/daily charts, and today’s 9 point pullback, Minor wave 4 should be underway. Support for Minor 4 would be at the lower end of the 1499 pivot range. Any rally above 1525, before reaching that low, would suggest Minor 3 is still unfolding. Friday is options expiration, but the recent price action has been on thursdays.

Short term support remains at the 1499 pivot and SPX 1471/75, with resistance at the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Short term momentum displayed a slight negative divergence at today’s high then dropped below neutral. The short term OEW charts are still positive with the reversal level now at SPX 1513. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: new uptrend high SPX 1525

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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123 Responses to wednesday update

  1. torehund says:

    World has to choose, either to take the pain now or later, with shippres and solar. Ok, make players go BK and make the payers REMAINING taking a big premium, or let the waek birds live, and make for sustainability in price and supply.
    Nature is an efficient machine so why not let all live, and semiprosper come the next decades !
    But who am I, jus talking for my sick mother !

  2. Ronin I3 says:

    Hourly is rolling over..1514.75, then 1510?

  3. Ronin I3 says:

    Ladies, Lee asked me to send these to you..
    http://i.imgur.com/XL7Os.jpg

    • CB says:

      nice!
      the roses have lots of sizzle
      and the market needs to fizzle…
      I guess one could still dip them in chocolate to make them calorie-wise totally irresistible :)
      Enjoy VD everyone!

      • Ronin I3 says:

        I hope you meant the Hallmark holiday. ;)

      • CB says:

        oh my, u were right I3, it’s a war out there…on acronyms!!…hey, never tease a woman when she is tired -or rested … OK, ur lucky today I am in a good mood ..hope is good …now let me get in touch with my inner Howard Stern & ask you what ur biggest fear is, OK?? :shock: …..seriously, we could do a show with some of that stuff that happens here guys..markets can make you loco..

  4. Tom Green says:

    CN
    Way to hang in there. Loved your call this AM. Couple hours to go, anything can happen.
    Did W Buffet save your day? Kudos to you for taking a stance. Looks like you won’t be eating out of a dumpster. To confusing for me to make a bold statement. Just reminds me back in 1984, we termed it a Zulu Market. Every little sell off you could her a chant from beyond the hills, Zulu, Zula, then the mad screaming hoard came roaring over the top and scared the poor little Brits away.
    TG

  5. budfox9450 says:

    Looking at Tony’s 60min Gold chart – There’s a case for, a Bullish Divergence pattern.
    Same, might be said for SCO, and Corn, too…

  6. torehund says:

    Market dictates us, as we are naturally made to obey thecommon thinking. And sometimes its right too… we are all hypnotized robots..

  7. blubrd67 says:

    Maybe this is the part of the reason for late strength today

    Senate Democrat sequester replacement plan unveiled
    February 14, 2013, 2:50 PM
    A plan has been created by Senate Democrats to replace the looming sharp cuts to defense and domestic spending known as the sequester, according to several published reports.

    The plan is to get half of the $110 billion needed to prevent the sharp cuts through new revenue, and half through spending cuts. The so-called Buffett rule on enacting a 30% minimum tax on millionaires, a tax on oil sands and the eliminations of deductions for moving facilities overseas would raise $55 billion, while the spending cuts are split between a reduction in agricultural spending and defense spending. See story on Democrat plan.

    Earlier, House Speaker John Boehner said he would wait for the bill to pass the upper chamber before commenting on it. He has, however, objected to using new taxes as an offset for the sequester.

    What the plan does represent is a negotiating point for a broader deal. It’s precisely the fact that the plan is unlikely to be enacted as crafted that had some left-wing Democrats upset that only half the pay-fors come from revenue.

    – Steve Goldstein

  8. torehund says:

    As the human boot I am, I just had to make my own wave on the stock USO, mcap at 60 some mill and 200 mill in the bank, just couldnt let it pass. But remember I am radiosteered by the universe, and maybe we all are. Happy to be in here, where mind matter may flow freeely..

  9. budfox9450 says:

    Interesting change in Bullish sentiment via Investors Intelligence poll.
    The low of Bullish sentiment via I.I. was 37.2 on Nov 21, 2012.
    The High, now appears to be 54.7 Feb 8th, 2013.
    Last poll – Feb 13th the Bullish sentiment fell to 52.6…
    If I were long. I’d be getting just a little careful, with my position….

  10. budfox9450 says:

    NY A/D line – Neg ‘ D is getting, pretty significant….

  11. torehund says:

    Shares I wont sell , ARWR, ROSG, PSDV.

    Even if you trade tehre should be a backbone of fundamentally superior shares that may make a dent to the future in whatever area of buisness, based on your own DD.

  12. mokiepon says:

    Shorts must be screaming for dear life right about now… M

  13. torehund says:

    CYCC is haveing an infringement on a patent with “big brother” Celgeen, could also on WE terms be close to a biggie…

    • torehund says:

      TAN- solar index looks more and more like a 3 rd wave. From 300 usd to 11 now at 20 there is room to run…

      • mokiepon says:

        torehund, happy to hear you’re making money! M

      • torehund says:

        ..But remember shares in these sectors are inherently volatile, unpredictable and never invest too much, and do your own DD and determine if you can handle any consequences of PPS action..And dont blame me if shares goes in the sour…

      • torehund says:

        Melinda am sorry to convey that there hasnt been much gains lately, but I am more concerned about the struggle, demise, humility and sometimes beeing right..the last feeling is sweet..

      • mokiepon says:

        torehund, I get it. Been where you are and being right can be very sweet indeed. As for the previous, I own very few sm. caps specifically for that reason (volatility) and the timing (they’ve had a big run). As you know, I love DIVIDENDS! Therefore, still holding my favorite. M

      • torehund says:

        M- smallcaps is a world within a world, Like I bought PPHM at 43 c, and sold after an ABC up at 94 cents, it went to 5,4 usd until it collapsed. Lessons learned…takes some time to figure.

      • torehund says:

        Melinda, having dividends then one may abolish both the job and the boyfrend and be FREE !

      • mokiepon says:

        Going to abolish raising kids too! LOL! M

  14. CygnetNoir says:

    1552 or Bust … with the ES at 1518, this may be your last chance to get ‘em cheap before the next pivot (or else I’ll be dumpster diving for me dinner. Again).

  15. M1 says:

    Hi Tony,
    How much higher are you projecting for Primary V on the NAZ count ?
    Thx

  16. Ronin I3 says:

    short es @ 1516.75

  17. mokiepon says:

    Wow, second run to break thru PP failed. Wonder if there will be a 3rd try later today? M

  18. mokiepon says:

    U.S. markets now tracking European markets and Euro. Good call by T2T yesterday! M

  19. pooch77 says:

    Lookie here we got our turn.Wonder how deep this will be.13 ma sits at1508 and has been strong support.M. sold short,went long,back to short to mitigate looses yesterday,go to be fast with those fingers.Today looks to very profitable.Hope everyone has a great V-Day .If job benefits are running out wouldnt claims move down???

  20. mokiepon says:

    I still don’t think these jobless claims numbers should be considered better or good in any way. Even if it’s 300K a week losing their jobs. Multiply by 4 and that’s 1.2M people losing their jobs each month, and this has been ongoing for years!

    Can see where this Bull might very well end in Q4 this year as Tony has alluded. Reality always has a way of showing itself. And look at the M&A picking up. Done b1tchin for the day.

    Good trading to All!
    M

  21. CygnetNoir says:

    Hourly SP-500 has a nice 3-wave ABC down from the morning’s high – I think a higher open tomorrow will be bought! See y’all at 1552!

    Buy the Dips!

    USA!

  22. CB says:

    “market rediscovers pullbacks,” lol…just saw this Tony….lol…well put!. Thanks!

  23. tuesday, after market update, 2013/02/12
    A. short term indicators/systems:

    eliott PSTT: remains on buy signal. the most heavily weighted indicator for signalling a change in weekly to monthly wave counts and trend changes.
    qqq indicator: +5, up 1 point, remains on buy signal.(need 0 to sell ………and -6 to short. +6 is a buy and remains a buy until 0 is triggered. heavily weighs momentum in unison with smart buyer activity.
    ……….a -6 remains a short until 0 is triggered).
    smart money indicator: -8 , up from -10. remains on sell signal. a -8 is usually a sell.
    feb. monthly 2faced longs 0.02% loss today. holds for an entire month.
    feb. monthly 2faced shorts 1.11% loss today. holds for an entire month.
    weekly 2faced longs, 1.22% loss today. holds longs for 5 days
    weekly 2faced shorts,0.49% profit today. holds shorts for 5 days.

    still working on fine tuning the algo for both the weekly and daily 2faced systems.

    spy +0.16%.

    B. long term indicators or systems:
    crash indicator at +6 on friday, 02/08.next update will be on 2013/02/15. a rare -10 signals a 2008 type of crash.all other long term indicators remain on a buy.

    C. trades:
    no trades today. still 99% cash except for spy puts. waiting on minor pullback to re-institute 100% long positions.
    long term folio buy signal possibly coming up for next week, buy aapl, a 10% allocation of total portfolio, watch for signal.

    D. stock watch:
    long break outs:kerx, sgmo, isis mcbc, svu, ctcm., adding furx ……………………and bby

    short break outs: lqdt,fbc, bcv,kbalb,mflix, fbc, sanm, fbc, iag, osis. adding lqdt.

    E. actions:
    no trades today.

    see the “ABOUT” section of the blog for more detailed descriptions of the use of all the above indicators and different trading portfolios.

    follow the comments section for regular indicator and trade updates, usually prepared on a regular basis usually prior to opening bell.

  24. Tom Green says:

    See HAL is in charge. The BOTS can’t handle Pico waves, they have been hacked. Only HAL can master Femto waves. It’s about to get real interesting. I3, nice stop. Try again ES 1520ish.

    • Ronin I3 says:

      TG, I am not as quick as HD. I couldn’t even get a buck to buy a cup of coffe. The setup is still valid, the hourly is the one took me out. 1522.25 was my stop. A sell on the hourly when is OB can still be considered a candidate.

  25. mokiepon says:

    Thank you Tony! M

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