SHORT TERM: market rediscovers pullbacks, DOW -36
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Retail sales were reported positive: +0.1% vs +0.5%, Export prices were higher: +0.5% vs -0.2%, as were Import prices: +0.2% vs -0.1%. The market opened higher, two points above yesterday’s SPX 1519 close. It bounced around a bit before moving higher still. At 10:00 Business inventories were reported positive +0.1% vs +0.3%. Around 10:30 the SPX made a new uptrend higher 1525, displayed a small negative divergence, and then began to pullback. By 11:30 the SPX hit 1518, bounced to 1521 by 2:00, and then pulled back even further. At 3:00 the SPX hit 1516, then bounced into a 1520 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.35%. Bonds lost 11 ticks, Crude slipped 35 cents, Gold dropped $9, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1499 and 1440 pivots, with resistance at the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, then senate testimony from FED governor Tarullo at 10:30.
The market opened higher today, made a new uptrend high, then had its largest pullback in nearly the past week of trading. With a negative divergence on the hourly/daily charts, and today’s 9 point pullback, Minor wave 4 should be underway. Support for Minor 4 would be at the lower end of the 1499 pivot range. Any rally above 1525, before reaching that low, would suggest Minor 3 is still unfolding. Friday is options expiration, but the recent price action has been on thursdays.
Short term support remains at the 1499 pivot and SPX 1471/75, with resistance at the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Short term momentum displayed a slight negative divergence at today’s high then dropped below neutral. The short term OEW charts are still positive with the reversal level now at SPX 1513. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: new uptrend high SPX 1525
LONG TERM: bull market
World has to choose, either to take the pain now or later, with shippres and solar. Ok, make players go BK and make the payers REMAINING taking a big premium, or let the waek birds live, and make for sustainability in price and supply.
Nature is an efficient machine so why not let all live, and semiprosper come the next decades !
But who am I, jus talking for my sick mother !
Hourly is rolling over..1514.75, then 1510?
Need 1531 to hold tomorrow if are going to go down,maybe gap up and crap and roll over
pooch77, you could start a new post. Why you reply to mine??
rolling up, no force to roll over other than 10 points !
C’mon torehund, you are ganging on me, too?
wait and see if spu lets me out tonight.
Magic 8 ball, will we get a gap up today?
http://tinyurl.com/b7aj6oe
no gap up..I was truly cheering for you guys..I want to be a team player!
Cause your post was relevant to SnP
fair enough!
Are you long? Short? Flat?
No, long 154 spy call,try not to hold options any longer than 2 trading days
Well, I hope it works out for you..Keep your finger crossed for me tonight!
Long for pop tomorrow,vix drop than SnP sell signal
i mean if we get snp pop and vix drop we should get snp sell signal
are you the one who is long 150 or 151 put?
covered 1/2 @ 1515. lower stop to B/E on 2nd 1/2. I can go sleep now…
Flava fla!!!
Ladies, Lee asked me to send these to you..
http://i.imgur.com/XL7Os.jpg
nice!
the roses have lots of sizzle
and the market needs to fizzle…
I guess one could still dip them in chocolate to make them calorie-wise totally irresistible
Enjoy VD everyone!
I hope you meant the Hallmark holiday.
oh my, u were right I3, it’s a war out there…on acronyms!!…hey, never tease a woman when she is tired -or rested … OK, ur lucky today I am in a good mood ..hope is good …now let me get in touch with my inner Howard Stern & ask you what ur biggest fear is, OK??
…..seriously, we could do a show with some of that stuff that happens here guys..markets can make you loco..
CN
Way to hang in there. Loved your call this AM. Couple hours to go, anything can happen.
Did W Buffet save your day? Kudos to you for taking a stance. Looks like you won’t be eating out of a dumpster. To confusing for me to make a bold statement. Just reminds me back in 1984, we termed it a Zulu Market. Every little sell off you could her a chant from beyond the hills, Zulu, Zula, then the mad screaming hoard came roaring over the top and scared the poor little Brits away.
TG
Looking at Tony’s 60min Gold chart – There’s a case for, a Bullish Divergence pattern.
Same, might be said for SCO, and Corn, too…
Market dictates us, as we are naturally made to obey thecommon thinking. And sometimes its right too… we are all hypnotized robots..
Speak for yourself, bot. Not this girl! M
Ok Melinda, nice to talk to a real human , once in a wile.
Folks holding solar shares, have forgot the ever owned them, as facing the misery will only infict pain and feeling of inferiority (huh we all have lots of that, its human or bootsy). Probably not watching their shares soar as they are x 10 underwater anyway. Cant touch it…
Hope all you guys remembered Valentine’s Day. Else, you won’t be posting here tomorrow… M
Maybe this is the part of the reason for late strength today
Senate Democrat sequester replacement plan unveiled
February 14, 2013, 2:50 PM
A plan has been created by Senate Democrats to replace the looming sharp cuts to defense and domestic spending known as the sequester, according to several published reports.
The plan is to get half of the $110 billion needed to prevent the sharp cuts through new revenue, and half through spending cuts. The so-called Buffett rule on enacting a 30% minimum tax on millionaires, a tax on oil sands and the eliminations of deductions for moving facilities overseas would raise $55 billion, while the spending cuts are split between a reduction in agricultural spending and defense spending. See story on Democrat plan.
Earlier, House Speaker John Boehner said he would wait for the bill to pass the upper chamber before commenting on it. He has, however, objected to using new taxes as an offset for the sequester.
What the plan does represent is a negotiating point for a broader deal. It’s precisely the fact that the plan is unlikely to be enacted as crafted that had some left-wing Democrats upset that only half the pay-fors come from revenue.
– Steve Goldstein
Hope repurblicans stick to their guns and don’t go for any more taxation. M
Republicans = repurblicans LOL! I’m tired… M
Melinda, at this stage market kind of fancy RESONSIBILITY, but not so much of it that it quenches profits and spending power…
I read the above statement.
eliminations of deductions for moving facilities overseas would raise — look like rubbish to me…
I think if Republicans don’t stick to their guns on this, or get a better deal with MORE entitlement cuts, they will be out of office come 2014. M
good point
As the human boot I am, I just had to make my own wave on the stock USO, mcap at 60 some mill and 200 mill in the bank, just couldnt let it pass. But remember I am radiosteered by the universe, and maybe we all are. Happy to be in here, where mind matter may flow freeely..
Interesting change in Bullish sentiment via Investors Intelligence poll.
The low of Bullish sentiment via I.I. was 37.2 on Nov 21, 2012.
The High, now appears to be 54.7 Feb 8th, 2013.
Last poll – Feb 13th the Bullish sentiment fell to 52.6…
If I were long. I’d be getting just a little careful, with my position….
I know there’s no actual time ‘limit’ on how long (days?) indices have to push through an area, but I speculate that if spx isn’t at 1525 or higher by EOB Friday, Monday might see a sell-off. M
M
Who are they going to sell to? Maybe you will be right, there won’t be any buyers around.
Must be Valentines Day and too much Blog Love.
Markets closed Monday.
T2T, oh, that’s right! forgot about Monday. What a waste of a perfectly good trading day… M
bud, do you have your dates turned around? Is Feb. 13 at 54.7 or 52.6? Just checking because it doesn’t read right (or I’m not reading it right). M
Yes, it is not Feb, 8th – correct to Feb 6th.. Thank You, M
bud, just happy to know it wasn’t vision or cognitive issues on my part. M
NY A/D line – Neg ‘ D is getting, pretty significant….
Hi bud. Looks like buying is drying up too, at least for now. M
is that LEE?
I’m buying ‘em as quick as I can, Melinda. Give a guy a break … I only have one shopping cart!
1552 or Bust … USA!
CN, LOL! Hurry! M
Shares I wont sell , ARWR, ROSG, PSDV.
Even if you trade tehre should be a backbone of fundamentally superior shares that may make a dent to the future in whatever area of buisness, based on your own DD.
Shares I will hesitate to sell, but will if market calls for it: VLCCF. With hopes of picking up shares again much cheaper in the after-life (~2016). M
M-the shippers will do a come back, in some years we will ask ourselves why we didnt buy more..but still cliffs to pass, nothing ever came easy, we know.
torehund, I agree. M
Shorts must be screaming for dear life right about now… M
CYCC is haveing an infringement on a patent with “big brother” Celgeen, could also on WE terms be close to a biggie…
TAN- solar index looks more and more like a 3 rd wave. From 300 usd to 11 now at 20 there is room to run…
torehund, happy to hear you’re making money! M
..But remember shares in these sectors are inherently volatile, unpredictable and never invest too much, and do your own DD and determine if you can handle any consequences of PPS action..And dont blame me if shares goes in the sour…
Melinda am sorry to convey that there hasnt been much gains lately, but I am more concerned about the struggle, demise, humility and sometimes beeing right..the last feeling is sweet..
torehund, I get it. Been where you are and being right can be very sweet indeed. As for the previous, I own very few sm. caps specifically for that reason (volatility) and the timing (they’ve had a big run). As you know, I love DIVIDENDS! Therefore, still holding my favorite. M
M- smallcaps is a world within a world, Like I bought PPHM at 43 c, and sold after an ABC up at 94 cents, it went to 5,4 usd until it collapsed. Lessons learned…takes some time to figure.
Melinda, having dividends then one may abolish both the job and the boyfrend and be FREE !
Going to abolish raising kids too! LOL! M
1552 or Bust … with the ES at 1518, this may be your last chance to get ‘em cheap before the next pivot (or else I’ll be dumpster diving for me dinner. Again).
Need to bust out of 1524 piovt by tomorrow or i believe we are going down
For me, time is never “of the essence.”
wolves and sheep.
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-richard-wyckoff-stock-trading-method-2013-2?op=1
“Balls To The Wall” comes to mind..
Sorry ladies..
LOL! It’s okay, I3. I’ve been accused of much worse. M
Looks like dips being bought, but spx just doesn’t quite want to stay up there. Tomorrow will probably be worse, volume wise and movement wise. M
yeah, the intraday between cash and futures were doing their own things..We need Lee to put them in line..
I3, good link. Thanks! M
that was fun to read. thanks I3.
it is a war out there..glad you two find it interesting.
Hi Tony,
How much higher are you projecting for Primary V on the NAZ count ?
Thx
Mario,
Sorry, no projections on the NAZ
short es @ 1516.75
Cash and futures are not quite aligned, but I will take a stab at it. Same stop.
Best to you, I3. M
you, too, M!
Covered 1/2 @ 1515, B/E on 1/2. this post is closed..Toodaloo!
Wow, second run to break thru PP failed. Wonder if there will be a 3rd try later today? M
3rd try hasn’t made it up through there yet either. M
4th attempt in progress. M
Oh! Will 4th time be the charm? M
5th attempt is higher but faltering, so far. M
U.S. markets now tracking European markets and Euro. Good call by T2T yesterday! M
Lookie here we got our turn.Wonder how deep this will be.13 ma sits at1508 and has been strong support.M. sold short,went long,back to short to mitigate looses yesterday,go to be fast with those fingers.Today looks to very profitable.Hope everyone has a great V-Day .If job benefits are running out wouldnt claims move down???
Hi pooch. My bets are either we get a slow grind downward, or sudden drop, then pop. If the second, it could be easily missed if I’m not watching carefully. M
I think you missed it,down 1514 1st 5 minutes back up to 1520
It will go down again, pooch. Might not be immediate, but this too shall pass. M
I probably should have been more specific. Move down to about 1500, then pop up. We still have sequester coming, so, I’m prep for that and not doing anything more now. Just sitting and watching. M
I still don’t think these jobless claims numbers should be considered better or good in any way. Even if it’s 300K a week losing their jobs. Multiply by 4 and that’s 1.2M people losing their jobs each month, and this has been ongoing for years!
Can see where this Bull might very well end in Q4 this year as Tony has alluded. Reality always has a way of showing itself. And look at the M&A picking up. Done b1tchin for the day.
Good trading to All!
M
Hourly SP-500 has a nice 3-wave ABC down from the morning’s high – I think a higher open tomorrow will be bought! See y’all at 1552!
Buy the Dips!
USA!
And yet I awaken to a likely Gap down. Of course, that opening bell is still a couple of hours away, so anything can happen … even a gap higher.
But what really gets me is that it seems the big easy trending swings have been ocuring between 2AM and 6AM EST, and that just does not work with my sleep cycle. So for much of this year, I’ve been left to sit and stare all day and the grind.
Morning CN. I won’t stay awake and trade w/Europe either. Don’t have a futures acct. anyway. Going to work today. Ciao! M
Work? Jeez … with Lee gone who knows where and Melinda at work doing who knows what, I suppose the post count might be a bit anemic today.
A lot of intra day trend reversal happened at the 2nd trading hours especially around 10:30 am ET. Just FYI.
Thank you, I’ll watch for that …
1546 by tomorrow, i guess
Will see what happens after Europe closes. M
yes M, i think we will see some heavy buying into OPEX before down.
Anything and everything is possible. M
incredibly sideways mess…correction needed asap
http://www.wavegenius.com/2013/02/13/elliott-wave-forecast-video-for-2-14-13-incredibly-sideways-mess-youtube/
Samuel, thinking of a correction coming as a gap up ?
Hi torehund. Ted’s wave count is somewhat different. It is frustrating, isn’t it? M
Melinda, I own smallcaps that in my wrongly tuned mind is worth 10 times the PPS. As it isnt rollover flattish its probably roll up flattish, I hope. IIn my enterpretation I meet harry all teh tiem, getting wiser, maybe but just some.
torehund, hope you’re right for both our sakes, but prepped for either direction. M
“market rediscovers pullbacks,” lol…just saw this Tony….lol…well put!. Thanks!
Morning CB. Pullback could be rediscovered again today too. M
tuesday, after market update, 2013/02/12
A. short term indicators/systems:
eliott PSTT: remains on buy signal. the most heavily weighted indicator for signalling a change in weekly to monthly wave counts and trend changes.
qqq indicator: +5, up 1 point, remains on buy signal.(need 0 to sell ………and -6 to short. +6 is a buy and remains a buy until 0 is triggered. heavily weighs momentum in unison with smart buyer activity.
……….a -6 remains a short until 0 is triggered).
smart money indicator: -8 , up from -10. remains on sell signal. a -8 is usually a sell.
feb. monthly 2faced longs 0.02% loss today. holds for an entire month.
feb. monthly 2faced shorts 1.11% loss today. holds for an entire month.
weekly 2faced longs, 1.22% loss today. holds longs for 5 days
weekly 2faced shorts,0.49% profit today. holds shorts for 5 days.
still working on fine tuning the algo for both the weekly and daily 2faced systems.
spy +0.16%.
B. long term indicators or systems:
crash indicator at +6 on friday, 02/08.next update will be on 2013/02/15. a rare -10 signals a 2008 type of crash.all other long term indicators remain on a buy.
C. trades:
no trades today. still 99% cash except for spy puts. waiting on minor pullback to re-institute 100% long positions.
long term folio buy signal possibly coming up for next week, buy aapl, a 10% allocation of total portfolio, watch for signal.
D. stock watch:
long break outs:kerx, sgmo, isis mcbc, svu, ctcm., adding furx ……………………and bby
short break outs: lqdt,fbc, bcv,kbalb,mflix, fbc, sanm, fbc, iag, osis. adding lqdt.
E. actions:
no trades today.
see the “ABOUT” section of the blog for more detailed descriptions of the use of all the above indicators and different trading portfolios.
follow the comments section for regular indicator and trade updates, usually prepared on a regular basis usually prior to opening bell.
See HAL is in charge. The BOTS can’t handle Pico waves, they have been hacked. Only HAL can master Femto waves. It’s about to get real interesting. I3, nice stop. Try again ES 1520ish.
TG, I am not as quick as HD. I couldn’t even get a buck to buy a cup of coffe. The setup is still valid, the hourly is the one took me out. 1522.25 was my stop. A sell on the hourly when is OB can still be considered a candidate.
I am not a robot to be in front of the computer 24/7.
Thank you Tony! M
Thank you M for thanking Tony. Sounds. Like we are getting ready for our acceptance speech at the Oscars.
While wearing those 3″ heels, I’d trip on the red carpet and fall flat on my face. M
Tom, don’t know if you saw my response to your EUR/USD blog, but I think that’s going to be a big player in whatever pullback/correction we get. I’m definitely watching European mkts very closely.
M2M???
I would catch you
Sounds like Blog Love
LOL! I don’t expect any self-respecting pooch to give his life being mashed by me, but I do thank you for the kind thoughts.
Sorry T2T. Is this all getting too precious for you? LOL!
Finally got everyone taken care of and am hitting the sack early tonight. TTY tomorrow.
M