tuesday update

SHORT TERM: market makes new highs, DOW +47

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.8%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.8%. US index futures were lower overnight, but the market opened flat at SPX 1517. In the opening minutes the SPX dipped to 1516 then rallied to 1520 just before 10:30. After a three point pullback just past 10:30, the market rallied to 1522 by 1:30. At 2:00 the Budget deficit was reported as a surplus: +$2.8 bln vs -$27.4 bln. A pullback then followed into a SPX 1519 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.30%. Bonds lost 7 ticks, Crude gained 40 cents, Gold added $2, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1499 and 1440 pivots, with resistance at the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Tomorrow: Retail sales and Export/Import prices at 8:30, then Business inventories at 10:00.

The market opened flat today, dipped, then made new uptrend highs at first SPX 1520, then 1522. Thus far this market has rallied from SPX 1498 last thursday to 1522 today, without even one 5 point pullback. Quite a steady grind higher. Should the short term SPX count be correct, Minor 3 concluding with Minor 4 to follow, we now see the lower range of the 1499 pivot as support. Should the short term DOW alternate count be correct, Minor 3 and 4 concluded and Minor 5 underway, we see the 1523 pivot range being cleared to the upside with the 1552 pivot range next.

Short term support remains at the 1499 pivot and SPX 1471/75, with resistance at the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Short term momentum hit quite overbought today then declined to near neutral. The short term OEW charts remain poistive with the reversal level now at SPX 1512. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: new uptrend high SPX 1522

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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140 Responses to tuesday update

  1. torehund says:

    Tony, in case you find it at all possible to comment on, if not rest your mind: Case FREE:
    There seems to be some pattern truncation on the 5 day chart vs the 1 day chart on google finance- but from spike at 31c today I see a double abc down in both 5 and 1 day chart, but different patterns emerge depending on the timeframe I choose. Does this truncation and its effect bother you in your own charting ? As we all the time measure the a and c to be equal in length, truncation makes for different outcomes…
    If it rises tomorrow I may have to look for patterns in different timeframes….

    • torehund says:

      Among other gaps in my understanding of the waves, today I discovered this truncation issue in which different formats change the overall pickture, and maybe there is more strength to an enterpretation if different truncations give the same wave outcome ? Or maybe its lesser in strength as the pattern is seen by both those looking at 5 day chart and the 1 day chart. Whats interesting is that such a fundamental issue hasnt struck me until now..

    • tony caldaro says:

      Tore,

      FREE spiked up from 6 cents to 58 cents on what looks like short covering.
      After that it immediately dropped, and then bounced to 33 cents and then 32 cents today.
      It is in an uptrend that appears to be waning.
      Stocks this low in price create trends that are often meaningless.

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FREE&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p28007601952&a=292833108&listNum=127

  2. Tom Green says:

    I3
    Stopped out?
    It’s ok, respect um

  3. torehund says:

    Shares that come and go, or the market ?

  4. H D says:

    ES remains technical. Small dips, pivots and TL’s respected. http://t.co/iXdWOvNY

  5. gary61b says:

    Tony, I have to favor the minor 3 not complete theory, and with the high today of 1524.69 on spx, I am still looking for 1527-30 area to complete minor 3. IMHO. And Thank U Tony.

  6. fionamargaret says:

    ….no economic calendar but mentioning the abc’s

    http://www.amateur-investor.net/AII_Daily_Report_Feb_12_2013.htm

    • mokiepon says:

      Thanks fionamargaret!
      Melinda

    • torehund says:

      I have had that as an aim /large ABC to about 1550, however looking at how some sectors have fared (gone down) in this ABC up, I question if that count marks an end to the bull. Market may play that tune and everything isnt fixed one way or the other. Or beten down sectors will take another punch to extinguish the weakest of the weak, but that would be a messy situation, but in the end clear teh dimmy outlook.

  7. rc1269 says:

    10pt bots or the start of the real deal finally?

  8. Ronin I3 says:

    Short ES @ 1516.75. R/R is almost 3:1. Wish me luck..(may cover early just in case)

  9. tommyboys says:

    10 year at 2.03% here…another new recovery high. This is bullish for the markets IMHO.

  10. torehund says:

    Testing my “bent wave ” theory on the Free share.. If from the top today it would count a double ABC down it would retrace all the way back close to 23 cents, it did not (turned before), so I ascribe the rise from todays bottom until now (approx at level price) as part of that last ABC leg. Then it should soon start to ascend if I get it right. This is just some EW- testing of hypotesis live, and not any advice to sell or buy the volatile and nearly BK bulker.

    • torehund says:

      Ouch, didnt work.. But one notice the 1 day and 5 day charts on google finance shows two differnet spatial patterns, depending on which one you use will give two different wievs and EW counts, lesson learned. Something new every day, lol.

  11. H D says:

    ZW traded .618 from the highs

  12. torehund says:

    Easy breakout gains retrace nearly full..like with the FREE share, tells me fear is on, folks grabbing the dough before someone else does it. But market aint giving anything for free, thats bull.

  13. Now two options on the table, deeper retrace to 1480-1490 or shallow retrace to 1505-1510 area.

  14. Ronin I3 says:

    good morning everyone! it has been crazy in the office!

    • CB says:

      it’s everywhere like that ,I3 -Moon in Aries 2day- stuff is fast & furious -expect more of the same PM ..

    • Ronin I3 says:

      a bunch of guys in the office got a hit on a stock they thought they got a sure thing on their hands..it is down 19.33% so far, ouch for them! Saw that coming and they are now avoiding the eye contacts..LOL..Don’t ask what stock it is, but I am sure you guys can find it in the most up/down.

      • Ronin I3 says:

        I guess it is better than a group got blown out of water a few days ago.

      • CB says:

        oh my.. ouch! ..you” saw it coming” ..that’s why Lee calls you eye tre, right?

      • Ronin I3 says:

        Lee called me a lot of things.. :)

      • CB says:

        haa..yes, Lee has a way with words & awesome powers of observation, don’cha know. When Lee is here he gets everyone talking, and when he is not here just mentioning his name brings smiles to people’s faces (like it just did) :) I liked it when he called U “awsome” I3 -..lol…Lee just knows how to make U go postal, huh?…that was so funny…when a guy makes jokes like that even when he has the flu U know how seriously funny he is :))
        Lee, how is that magic mystery tour of yours going.?

      • Ronin I3 says:

        he told me that he is going to swim with the sharks ( I think he meant dolphins) and eat barracuda for dinner.

      • CB says:

        you’d think dolphins cuz they talk like humans, don’t they…..in any case sounds like lots of fun..maybe if U bug Lee enough, he’ll call U “awsome” again.. ;)
        sorry I swollow letters & sometime entire words, meant :Political deadlines above & thanks for the answer, I3 saw it ..lol

      • Ronin I3 says:

        Lee got an “E” for effort to spell AWSOME. :)

      • CB says:

        sorry I3, that “version” was intentional (I thought)..just accept it: it was a cruel joke :))…and enjoy ur cruelty-free barracuda days..for a few days

        like I was hoping we’d go to 1512ish but looking at my watch I’ve lost that hope…bots leaving some more work for tomorrow

      • Ronin I3 says:

        I know.. : ) I spell AWSOME back to Lee..

      • CB says:

        haaa..careful how U spell back I3….just remember Capoeira is one of the “services” Lee “offers” ..and .then there is also drop-kicking, right? : ) Have a gr8 afternoon everyone!
        Thanks Tony, Looking forward to reading what ur thinking here!

  15. CygnetNoir says:

    Three words for The Yen Guy:

    Buy the dips!

  16. Tom Green says:

    Also look at the reversal of Euro/USD

  17. pooch77 says:

    From Ray Merriman…………..
    Here is an excerpt from Merriman..

    These dates affect all markets. They are the midpoint of geocosmic clusters, and have a range of three days either side. Sometimes they expand to as much as 5 days. The idea is to see a new two-week or greater high or low, and then a reversal. It is especially effective when major, half-primary, or primary cycle troughs are due. These are more important than the solar-lunar reversal dates. The more the stars, the greater the historical correlation with a cycle end and reversal. For more information, please read Volume 3 of the Stock Market Timing series. Below is the date of the midpoint and in parentheses the length of time containing the geocosmic signatures (known as a “cluster”). If the cluster is very long (more than 15 days), there may be other possible reversals, based on tighter geocosmic clusters, within the greater cluster.

    February 7** (we are here now, and USA stocks are making highs)
    February 14***
    February 25**

    These periods are usually more important than the solar-lunar reversal zones, but not necessarily any more accurate. It’s just that when they do hit, they usually correspond with primary cycle, whereas lunar reversals need only correspond to 2.5% reversals.

    The period of January 25-March 6 is a very long time band with numerous geocosmic signatures with no more than 6 calendar days separating any two consecutive signatures. Thus, this may be a ragged time with different markets reversing at different times within this time band, whose midpoint is Feb 14. It may favor short-term, aggressive trading as opposed to position trading, especially as Mercury is retrograde Feb 23-March 17.
    TraderGirl Posts: 3481Joined: Thu Dec 22, 2011 1:47 pm

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  18. pbnj123 says:

    Good morning all
    Anyone counting the waves on the solar sector?
    Any idea of where they might be?
    TYIA
    Cheers

  19. torehund says:

    There is descent hold to market, when they pump volume into a stock, and then withdraw it, there is an initial collapse and then sudden stand still. So the core of holders seems to have pretty strong hands.

  20. Tom Green says:

    Don’t believe the BOTS are in charge any more. They become ineffective when in Pico waves. The all knowing HAL has the handle now. Only HAL can handle Femto waves.

  21. This bull is indeed strong. But she is still in the core of 1523 pivots. (1530-1516). :)

  22. Tom Green says:

    M

    How was The Westminster last night? Got caught watching another dog show. A bunch of mutts trying to trick us with their assumed pedigree’s.

  23. blubrd67 says:

    UVXY hit 9’s yesterday and today as I predicted a few weeks ago, based on my proprietary method (just kidding :)) and it might touch briefly 8’s before trending back to 15. Just in case someone is interested for cheap trade, as uncle Lee would put it. :)

  24. Tom Green says:

    Just received notice that the sale at COSCO for market top calls at 1518 is sold out. Due to the success of the promotion, any new offers will be delayed until May, 2013.

  25. torehund says:

    I mentioned the bullishness in Korea (south of course), and the huge pos divergence looking like a Piton in St Lucia…Then that lead me to thinking of Samsung heavy-industries as they make oil rigs and big ships GALORE at affordable prices (as Tony pointed out ships are extraordinarily cheap these days, Diana picking them up). Since this Piton of a pos divergence may play out, so would profitability of Samsung and Samsung heavy industries…..That may tell us that ship/oil rigs or 3D TVs for that matter, has bottomed out… All that matters for the leveraged shippers is to get them out of the wrench of declining ship values relative to debth leverage. Just a thought.
    And boy what a bull the Koreans may enjoy.
    Pity that the North Koreans have succumbed to Communist labeled dictatorship. However with so much ancestry of human discipline prevailing in this region, rulership often trend to the extremes just like our shares. And at extremes things wobble a bit, until it goes in the other direction.

  26. thebbliss says:

    Tony,

    It seems like the C1 uptrend from the 2009 low has consisted of short 5-waves. At least on the SPX weekly charts, I don’t see any extended 5’s and we even have a couple of short 5-wave failures that you noted along the way.

    Do you agree with this observation? Based on your experience, do you think this characteristic will continue into the C1 top, or is the market likely to reverse this trend with 5th waves extensions just to fake us out?

    Regards,
    Bill C

  27. torehund says:


    Will ships yet again sail the 7 seas for higher rates ?

  28. theyenguy says:

    You write long term bull market; I respond that this is incorrect; the market is peaking out.

    Financial Shares rose strongly, taking the Small Cap Nation Investment, the Russell 2000, US Infrastructure, Global Producers and Leveraged Buyouts to new highs in advance of President Obama’s State of the Union Address, pulling Major World Currencies, DBV, to a new rally high.

    The World Banks, IXG, the Too Big Too Fail Banks, RWW, such as BAC, MS, and JPM, and the Emerging Market Banks, BPOP and BLX, traded to new highs. And the much news mentioned UK Banks, BCS, LYG, RBS, and the Japanese Banks, MFG, NMR, SMFG, traded up on the day.

    Financial Shares, XLF, rose strongly taking Small Cap Nation Investment, IFSM, the US Small Caps, IWM, US Infrastructure, PKB, Global Producers, FXR, and Leveraged Buyouts, PSP, to new highs, which pulled Major World Currencies, DBV, to a new rally high. But World Stocks, VT, and Nation Investment, EFA, traded below their recent highs.

    Stocks sectors rising strongly today included Home Builders, ITB, Solar Stocks, KWT, and the Dig and Dirt Moving Stocks, CR, MTW, and IR.

    The chart of the S&P 500, $SPX, SPY, shows a 0.2% gain to finish at a five-year high 152.02, which came through the S&P 500 High Beta Stocks, SPHB, Semiconductors, XSD, trading to rally highs.

    The tone of the day was one of speculative investment in leveraged banking and in debt laden stocks.

    The news of the day was stunning 2,294,700 shares traded the Japanese Yen Yen ETF, FXY, with much of it being a bullish trade, which took the Yen, FXY, up 0.33 at 104.76; this as the Euro, FXE, rose 0.36%, to close at 133.42, which produced the EUR/JPY to close, as Action Forex reports, at the middle of a broadening top pattern at 124.93, suggesting that the Euro Yen Currency Trade, that is the EUR/JPY, which has fueled Banks, IXG, Global Producers, FXR, and the S&P, SPY, higher over the last eight months is ending.

    With the Yen, FXY, firming at 104.76, and Major World Currencies, DBV, likely topping out at 26.88, and the 200% Bullish Dollar ETF, UUP, having broken out Friday February 8, 2013, it is likely that currency traders will commence competitive currency devaluation, with the Brazilian Real, BZF, the Indian Rupe, ICN, the Chinese Yuan, CYB, and the Emerging Market Currencies, CEW, being loss leaders, with disinvestment coming out of all of the Brics, EEB, that is Brazil, EWZ, Russia, RSX, India, INP, and China, YAO

    Derisking and deleveraging is likely to come out of the Emerging Markets, EEM, the Major World Banks, IXG, the S&P High Beta, SPHB, the Too Big To Fail Banks, RWW, the Regional Banks, KRE, the Russell 2000, IWM, Leveraged Buyouts, PSP, Semiconductors, XSD, Solar Stocks, KWT, and the Global Produces, FXR, as well.

    • pooch77 says:

      Been peaking out the last 250 SnP points

    • tony caldaro says:

      Thanks Yenguy,
      We’re basically in a long term bull market until we begin a long term bear.

    • torehund says:

      Yenguy, I agree that some sectors are debth laden and out of fashion right now, like solar/shipping and small caps. However at the top, some years ago there werent a lot of bearishness, then as they just do a tiny move to the upside (after years of beeing slaughtered) the bearish harassment quickly rises to the extremes. Take a look at the TAN solar index, and why should the world extinguish the companies now that solar is pretty competitive versus other energy plays. Just a thought.

      • torehund says:

        …and if market BKs a lot of companies, there will be less competition and much higher prices going into the future. So the market is between a rock and a hard place, whichever direction is choosen higher prices will happen…Thats how nature works.

  29. Gary Scott says:

    Tony: I have followed you for a couple of years. You do excellent work. Keep it up.

  30. alexhartley1 says:

    Hi Tony –
    Any chance what we’re seeing at the moment is a much larger wave coming to an end.
    A Major one or even a Primary 3?
    Thanks, Alex

  31. Tony. Which count is more probable at the moment? Minor 4 concluded already and now 5, or still 3 and waiting for 4 (and 30-50points pullback)? Thx

  32. mokiepon says:

    Thanks Tony. Holding all my longs until Int. 5 is close to done later this year, then, sell them all and hold cash for trading the downsides and pops. M

    • andysingal says:

      bought SPXU to short the market,however this market sees no wave 4 just wave 5. frustrating

      • mokiepon says:

        andy, I guess I’m not a purely technical person. Whereas any wave 3 is likely to go up or down in a straight line, while 5ths seem to bounce around more. Now, I’m not speaking from any expert point of view, just observation. I think that the next 2 weeks are going to be volatile and difficult. M

      • mokiepon says:

        andy, I also keep in mind Tony’s original timeframe, which I think is still good. If I remember correctly (and Tony should correct me if I’m wrong), wave v is likely to be over and done with by the end of this month. I think it’s going to be hard sleding uphill for it. Nasty 2 wks of WDC issues ahead of us. M

      • mokiepon says:

        Excellent! So happy to know that I remembered something correctly today. Thanks Tony. Between hurried Boss to meetings and crying kids at home… Well you’ve probably been there. M

    • andysingal says:

      Thanks M, but reading Tony’s updates for today it is hard to tell whether we are in wave3 or wave 5. time will tell

      • mokiepon says:

        I understand. There are some chartists that think wave iii is ongoing. I wouldn’t know. All I feel sure of is the next 2 weeks of fighting a throat-cutting in WDC. If European markets react negatively to it, then, even more so of a reaction from U.S. markets. M

    • andysingal says:

      Good morning M, lets see if we reverse today to at least 1500 if not 1475 for me to go long and figure if this is wave 3 or wave 5

  33. thanks for the prompt update Tony! I sold my longs (SSO) at corresponding SPX level of ~1520 today, up from corresponding SPX level of ~1500. Price is, IMHO, now so close to the 1523 target, that by now I’d like to sit in cash and let the market decide which hand I should play (long or short), and enjoy my profit! Because, profit is profit and it ain’t a profit till you sell it!

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