SHORT TERM: consolidation day, DOW +7
Overnight Asian markets gained 1.4%; again mostly Japan. Europe opened higher but lost 0.8%; we have a few confirmed downtrends there now. US index futures were lower overnight and the market opened lower at SPX 1507. The SPX had closed at 1511 yesterday. In the opening minutes the SPX dropped to 1505, then rallied to 1513 by 1:00 before heading lower again. At 1:30 the SPX hit 1506, then rallied into a 1512 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.20%. Bonds gained 12 ticks, Crude added 20 cents, Gold rose $4, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1499 and 1440 pivots, with resistance at the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, a speech from FED governor Stein at 9:30, then Consumer credit at 3:00.
The market opened lower today, dropped down to SPX 1505, rallied to 1513, then stayed within that range for the rest of the day. This ongoing choppy activity continues to suggest either an ongoing completion of Minor wave 3, before a Minor wave 4 pullback, or a complex Minor wave 4. Either way, as this market sorts itself out, Minor 5 will eventually be underway to complete the uptrend. We still feel friday’s high at SPX 1514 was the end of Minor wave 3, and everything since then has been Minor wave 4. We currently have a Minute wave A at SPX 1495, and Minute B at 1515.
Short term support remains at the 1499 pivot and SPX 1471/75, with resistance at the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Short term momentum declined from yesterday’s negative divergence, dipped below neutral, then bounced back in the afternoon. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now at SPX 1504. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market