SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -130
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. European markets opened lower and tumbled 2.3%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market gapped down to SPX 1506 at the open. The SPX had closed at 1513 on friday. In the opening minutes the SPX hit 1503, then bounced back to 1506 by 10:00. At 10:00 Factory orders were reported higher: +1.8% vs 0.0%. The pullback then resumed hitting a familar number, thursday’s low, SPX 1497 by 12:00. Then after a bounce to SPX 1500 by 1:00, 1497 was retested by 2:00. Another bounce to SPX 1501 also failed by 3:00, then the market made a lower low to 1495 just before closing at 1496.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -1.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.65%. Bonds gained 15 ticks, Crude lost $1.65, Gold bounced $6, and the USD was higher. Medium term support drops to the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Tomorrow: a speech by FED governor Duke at 8:30, then ISM services at 10:00.
The market gapped down at the open today for the first time since January 24th. But unlike 24Jan, which opened at the low and then rallied, this decline continued. When the market dropped below SPX 1500, turning the short term OEW charts negative, we changed the tentative “careful Minor 3″ labeling on the hourly chart to its appropriate color dark blue. When the market continued down to SPX 1495 it generated the largest pullback since Minor wave 3 began at SPX 1398. That was a nice run.
Should the market indeed be in Minor wave 4 the pullback should be around 30 to 40 points. Our analysis, based on previous Minor 4 waves suggests support between SPX 1476 and 1484. With short term support at the bull market breakout range: SPX 1471/75, the low to mid-1470′s looks like a good area for a Minor wave 4 low. When it does conclude the market should make new uptrend highs during Minor wave 5 to complete the uptrend.
Short term support is now at SPX 1471/75 and 1462/64, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Short term momentum hit oversold today, had an afternoon bounce, then ended oversold. The short term OEW charts turned negative today for the first time since SPX 1420, the reversal level is now around 1500. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
GUYS I THINK ITS A B WAVE LIKE TONY HAS MENTIONED….See the bee video was to …nevermind
killer bees?
stinger?
Nice Bees you got there. My Grandpa used to keep bees.
Got a good enough position, don’t need to add more today, Maybe later. I trust Tony’s “B”.
I have seen this pattern on smaller timeframes as a broadening top. I have zero faith in my analysis right now though. I have to use the C word. confirmation
HD, it does have that look and we may get churned a bit before them get lined up again.
Hey TG, we have enough light now for 2PM tee off. Not a bad idea. My natural flight is right to left and most of the courses are left to right. Just like my trades. Just do the opposite
HD
Where do you play?
TG
I play em all, Tucson National is my home course. You?
HD
Called Gaillardia CC in OKC. When my Dad was alive played a lot at Ventana Canyon, and always enjoyed Tucson CC. I remember when Johnny Miller owned the Tucson Open at Tucson National in the 70′s
TG
HD
If you know Doc Tom Iannuci, old family friend from Chicago area plays and lives at Tucson National
TG
Would have been better for me to spend $200 playing Ventana Canyon today than what I did……
Seems like everyone goes by ‘Doc’ there
but haven’t heard Ianucci.
Once again, $SPX is the red-headed stepchild (just like me!). $INDU hasn’t taken out 14019.78 yet. Sell ‘em all.
Looks to me like minor 3 ended last Wednesday – the 30th. We got an A down Thursday – the 31st, B up on Friday – the first and the C down yesterday completing minor 4. We’re now seeing the first wave higher of minor 5…
If so will likely take us into the 1540/50 range for the top of minor 5…
possible
but isn’t this still minor 4, thanks
possible, but look at the INDU. It completed a perfect 5 waver up on Friday (14090.78). The SPX didn’t make a higher high in the close, and that may have been a truncated 5th of a 5th wave. On the INDU, yesterday counts best as a 3 waver down actually. We may then and thus be in a 3-3-5 correction, where b=a or can be up to 1.38x a.
haa..Ok I’ll be a quiet bee now…
Not a bee a B
Buzz away C B !
OK, Lee I see and 1511 TL also didn get cleared..well, that’s a whole bunch of good infor.
Lee
We are just a bunch of worker bees. Seeing that you are not a queen, I’ll let you call it your hive.
Ha Ha
Tomorrow is another day, and 99% of capital intact.
Sleep well everyone. If we are all real nice, maybe Lee will give us a little honey on Wednesday .
TG
don’t encourage her..
J/K.
I am not sure of anything at this point…
I have knowledge of targets at 1525 and even 1530!
I think that is a “cash is king” situation.
..even 1576
Tony would be unusual to similar 2 & 4?
no need to reply I will b finding a busy street to throw myself into traffic.
Tony would be unusual to similar 2 & 4?”– great point HD , unless ‘they’ first do it and then tell us “oh , let’s forget the whole thing, it was just one big misprint, so lets do it again differently”…rascals ;P
serioulsy though, could it be and abc up within a complex 4 triangle of some sort…this whole political process looks like it’s gona be with us for a while…
That is 4 1%+ moves in a row.
“political process?” not sure I follow you CB?
I once had such a bad day in mkts that I thought of putting my head in the oven, like they used to do years ago. Then I remembered, my oven is electric… M
HD
Go hit some balls. Work on a little right to left action. It will clear your head and make you feel better.
TG
HD, complex correcition would def. correspond to the lengthy budget talks, that;s all I mean by thatI think you alluded to a complex correction, right?
and what I am really paying attn is the 60 min chart with “a” down so far, so looking for a psbl. “b” like everyone else..
If you think this is hard, try trading AAPL
TG
Very unusual
Still wondering if there is merit to alternate count for Minor 1 to 1448. This was originally deemed “too choppy” to consider as the primary count. Just a thought.
Bill C
Bill,
Carrying that count on the DOW
Thanks, Tony. My bad! I need to pay closer attention to both charts.
Tony,
What’s your take on the sub-wave structure of yesterday’s a-wave down? Do you count 5 or 7 sub-waves?
Looked like a five
its got to be at least abc of some sort, so 1495 1510 1508 ->>…risk/oppty is @ 1517 ,1523
CB, it’s not even at 1514 yet. High is 1514.41. If it doesn’t make that, we MIGHT, JUST MAYBE, in the clear for 4C. M
M
You can have an irregular correction, meaning take out the 1415 high, and still have the ABC intact. It’s just very tricky. That’s why Tony doesn’t like to short 4s in a strong uptrend.
T2T
M, thanks..we all agree C is coming ….think, once we cleared TL at 1511 though, it is open season ..for extensions..it does’t have to look right, but would be nice if it did. and we have some time to kill..if everyone is short like we’re reading then.what are the bots to do but squeeze..till the EOD….i m sure that as soon as Im done typing this, I’ll be humbled …just trying something out ..no idea whetehr it’ll work or not
T2T, thanks for the reminder. Every once in a while, I need the thump on the head. But still like to short anything that has a probability of at least 25+ SPX points.
CB, you’re right. Everyone and his sisterknows most are short. This too shall pass. M
And, of course, as soon as I said something…. On the way to 1515.
M
If this is a B wave, please remember that B waves can extend to 1.23x or even 1.38x the length of wave A (according to Frost and Prechter)… they’re real suckas in other words…
Let the sucka stretch now, while it can… Then I might add to short position. M
agree, 1517 to 1524 is the max. lets see
Tony, meant minor 3 or minor 5
Tony, this looks either minor 4 or minor 5?
still looks like Minor 4 … triangle maybe
…think it is a little too soon to short – SDS more in the 39′ish range might prove more fruitful.
Thanks Tony.
looks like the bots need to clean out all the brand new shorts first
This short hanging in. M
good luck everyboy, in spxu at 1509. sold UPRO a bit early at 1504 today
See yas on the other side of the rainbow
alright then; shorted this pop… bought SDS @48.10. Wish me luck, ’cause shorting a smaller down trend in a bigger uptrend is tricky.
Hi surfer. Yes, it’s tricky, but if spx gets to 1480′s, or down to 1474, it should pay off. Nobody knows. Will just have to wait it out. M
Sure is
I think were all short here now. I used the lightly traded and seldom used ES minis
FORZA
Hey all
4th waves in an uptrend are very tricky. Yeah we are all looking short here, including wa.
Lee, get the bots going for another ten in a different direction. If your playing craps you can’t make money hanging out on the pass line. You got to have some numbers and hope the holder of the dice can roll for about 15 minutes before crapping out.
T2T
Hi T2T: If this is a 4B as Tony says, I would think it should be done sometime tomorrow, if not be EOB today. M
One does have to wonder why with a 4B like this, it was even necessary to have a pullback yesterday. Spx has recovered virtually everything (index wise) lost. M
1509.83 = 76.4% back and the 1/30 intraday high (aka left shoulder…)
Hi RC,
What do you mean for “1/30 intraday high (aka left shoulder…)”?
Thanks
i was referring to the intraday high on Jan 30, which was 1509.95 or so. 76.4% back from friday’s high is 1509.83 – pretty darn close to the high on Jan 30. and, if we end up selling off from here, then today’s high will have formed a right shoulder in a H&S, with Jan 30 being the left shoulder. sorry, presupposing a setup, so maybe not clear until after it happens.
Hey R C
If and when we break 30 handles from here nobody can say it didn’t give u a chance to short.:)
that’s right
Yep.
Clear now, thank you.
Tony, does it look if we are still in minor 3 or B wave of minor 4?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&b=1&g=0&id=p78440107652&a=67036679&listNum=11
Tony, you will have to tell me in plain English. The chart doesn’t make sense to me
looks like a B wave rally
cocoa puffs!
Tony how did you come up with the 405 number on Apple? Thanks Gre
proprietary
Sorry, I am new here… how do I see this AAPL chart, guys?
TIA
welcome Sirrobbie
AAPL appears to have bottomed but is not moving much, concerning.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p15558743518&a=72519467&listNum=11
Hi sirrobbie. I don’t have the answer to your questions, but just wanted to say Hello an Welcome!
Melinda
hey sirrobbie
http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp/15
Thank you Toney, Melinda, and Humbleed!!
I’ve been reading the posts for a while now, and I really enjoy this site. I hope this is wave 4, with 5 to come soon. (AAPL)
GLTA
Thanks Tony*
Sorry
ESH R1 @ 1504.50
Ok guys have a great morn..As always use stops but its a cheap short IMO
Morning Guys! Waiting to see if spx will retreat from this pop. Good trading to Everyone! M
Bought uvxy 11.35. M
bought spxu too at 1509
Hi andy. Didn’t see you there. Wish us luck. M
WOW! What a pop! M
oh yes, what a sweet tootie patootie of a market…. God please keep this dream alive for a few more…seconds… : )
CB, looks like your prayers are answered! M
Hey M..in case God hangs up on me , I am tightening my stops..cuz like Lee says, they’re guys/gals’ best friends..on most days
CB, go ahead on! I’m just going to hope this sucker falls. M
I am out, so it’s prbly going to 1515..
Come to Mama! …Okay, I’ll be more patient. Are you guys film buffs? Like Force 10 From Navarone? When the explosives guy blew up the dam instead of the bridge and let the water do the work. That’s what this feels like right about now…Waiting for the damned dam to break. M
haha…Hey market, Money Honey says:”terminate with prejudice”..just do it!
later guys
Got tired of walking the line and hitting its head at 1510. M
C B & M
All u can do is pick ur spots and manage ur stops .
I have to use stops seeing I’m a semi professional futures trader/hand model.
M, I appreciate a good film, also a fan for the cheesy stuff!
hmm..hand model!…hey that’s intriguing, Lee..well, we know Geminis use their hands for talking…hmm, what else can a Gemini do with those great hands? ..Oh, I am sure you won’t tell us Lee
) …unless we’re good gals, maybe..Lee, as a trader you must have had them insured like M.Dietrich’s legs at one point. I’d imagine…
Lee, I don’t use stops unless I have to leave the computer, or am holding overnight. Perhaps it’s a bad move on my part, but I feel more comfortable being able to hit the button.
Ronini, name some of those cheesy films you like? I like all sorts, so probably have some in common.
M
Wonder where torehund, our resident Viking Poet is today? M
“Lee, I don’t use stops unless I have to leave the computer, or am holding overnight. Perhaps it’s a bad move on my part, but I feel more comfortable being able to hit the button.”
I smell what ur cooking but that’s using stops in my world . I set it and forget it and sometimes regret it .
M,
#1 A night at the Roxbury (2nd copy, after the 1st was worn out.)
#2 Hangover
#3 Wedding Crasher
#4 Austin Powers franchise
#5 Robin Hood: Men in Tights
#6 Dracula: Dead and Loving It
#7 Spaceballs
#8 Dumb and Dumber
#9 Road Trip
#10 Me, Myself & Irene
ronini, love the cheesy movie picks! M
M, just wait to see my new avatar!
Hi Mokie , above 1513 now
andy, yes it is. If it looks to start turning down hard, I’m adding. M
What no easy button this morn? 10 points to HWB
nice call on the 89 MA, HD.
Thanks
morn.
some nice R/R this a.m
Trade em !
morn everyone
haa..gooo1 name for i,t Lee!…TYBJ for this rattle & roll in the other direction..
Hey C B
4 hr TL on ZS @ 1478 ish …I wont trade em but lets see what happens
Hey Lee,
Great eye!! Gee, how did you know that it was gonna pull back! Thanks Lee
C B
ZS is running a bit.. I still won’t touch it but lets keep that TL up
thanks Lee…since they have weird tradinh hours 5-2pm..the big move will prbly happen when etfs are closed
Tony, euro’s gone straight down since it hit 1.37, any thoughts on it? Is this a buyable pullback? Thanks
normal pullback in uptrend … soon buyable
Tony, have you changed your Primary B target of 1.38 for the Euro? Seems like your recent comments are a little more bullish. Thanks
Yes, looks like it goes higher
Do you think it has a decent chance to get 1.45? (Major c = 1.618 Major a)
C B
RE Soybeans
Today they successfully back tested the11/08 breakdown @ the days high with a -div on a 4 hr chart
I see a series of higher lows and higher highs since the mkt pulled back .382 on 1/24
If you’ve been long from last week or earlier theres a TL that comes in @ 1473 ish that should be respected.. In other words I m not sure LOL but I think it pullsback
Lee, thanks very much for taking the time to look at it in such great detail. I really appreciate your help & it’s great to be able to learn from you how to analyze those set-ups. Unfortunately I’ve been wasting time with coffee for a few days but it looks like the axe will fall on that pretty soon so I’ll be watching for a pullback with those parameters you’ve described. Thanks Lee! Gee, I need to ask you for help a bit more often, so I don’t get manhandled like I just did, first short, now long. I need a bear strategy..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbsnGVWmI1M warning, this will waste 2:04 min of you time, guys..
thanks alot Tony
Hi Tony
Noticed you labeled $405 on your Apple Chart. Is that a downside target still within “never ending” Wave 4.
Thanks
If AAPL gets down to there it will most probably not see $700 again
http://www.investing.com/indices/smallcap-2000-futures-advanced-chart
looks like a complete ABC on the 5 hour chart.
There you are, torehund. Didn’t see you earlier.
Thanks for the chart. M
Great Update! Thanks Tony. I hope indices drop a bit more, at least to the named 1471-75 area, just to make it official, then I’ll put my cash to work in a couple longs. I sold uvxy way too soon, but, I’m at work and can’t hold that position w/o constantly watching it, so, had to set a sell. M
any chance we are still in wave 3 if we get a strong rally tomorrow, thanks
not IMHO. today’s low pretty much invalidated all possible “we’re still in a 3rd wave count”. This is likely a wave A of and ABC -assuming we get a standard ABC correction. The rally you suggest should be the B wave, which in fact can be 1.23 or 1.38x the length of wave A… yes indeed top the 1514 high. Great to suck in all the bulls and then pull the rug away in the C wave, which will suck in all the bears, who’s rug get then pulled away… Gotta love these market games. But, 4th waves are often complex, not necessarily though, and we may well get some sort of messed up ABCD triangle P.O.peeeeep. I prefer to stay out and load up in the target zone Tony has tentatively identified.
So, IF you are still long, which you post in a way implies… (right!?) then you can still minimize your damage/max your profits in the B-wave up….
bought upro at 102.85 , will add if we go down
thanks alot
thanks guys! That’s great news. When I am ‘early’ the 1st question I always ask myself : would anyone be buying here
soulsurferusa: “…I prefer to stay out and load up in the target zone Tony has tentatively identified.”
Me too.
Melinda
Soulsurfer, these ABC downs may often asume some strange geometry, not that one should confine oneself to a certain pattern once seen. From my experience its always difficult counting the abcs down, so the first pattern one sees may well be shorted.
anything is possible, but odds would suggest a B wave of Minor 4 if we do rally
would be nice, what is ur tgt on the B wave to get out of longs. thanks
not saying we get a B wave soon, but a 10 point bounce would be nothing unusual
Doesn’t it make more sense that last Thursday’s 1497ish low was wave A, the rally to 1514 on Friday was wave B, and yesterday’s drop to 1495ish wave C completing Minor 4 ?
That’s all my grandson talked about on saturday … plus his race car games
Thanks Tony
Kool!
Danika finally won one
The greatest 24 hour endurance race, June 22~23!
Thx Tony, Finally found ur MA89. Ground hogs day ended right on schedule this year.