weekend update

REVIEW

Despite the FOMC meeting,  a negative Q4 GDP, the monthly Payrolls report, and a number of other economic indicators this market was not volatile at all. The entire range for the week was SPX 1496-1514, a bit more than 1%. For the week the SPX/DOW were +0.75%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.95%. Asian markets gained 1.3%, European markets lost 1.6%, and the DJ World index gained 0.7%. On the economic front positive reports outpaced negative reports 12 to 5. On the uptick: durable goods orders, the Chicago PMI, ISM manufacturing, Case-Shiller, construction spending, personal income/spending, the payrolls report, the ADP index, consumer sentiment, auto sales, and the WLEI improved. On the downtick: pending home sales, consumer confidence, and Q4 GDP, plus the unemployment rate and weekly jobless claims rose. Next week is a much lighter week with only five economic reports with ISM services and Consumer credit highlighting the week.

LONG TERM: bull market

Our long term bull market scenario continues to unfold as both the SPX/DOW made new bull market highs this week. In fact, the DOW is less than 1.5% from its all time high in 2007, while the SPX is about 4% below. The OEW long term count, as well as our Secular cycle work, continue to suggest a Supercycle wave 2 low was made in March 2009 at SPX 667. And, the next multi-generational Supercycle bull market has been underway since that low. Supercycles unfold in five Cycle waves. Cycle wave [1], this bull market, began in March 2009 and will probably top in Q4 of this year. After that a Cycle wave [2] bear market will likely last one to three years and wipe out about 45%, or so, of market value. Until then the bull market continues.

Cycle wave bull markets unfold in five Primary waves. Primary waves I and II completed in 2011 at SPX 1371 and 1075 respectively. Primary wave III has been underway since that low. Primary wave I divided into five Major waves, with a subdividing Major wave 1. Primary wave III is also dividing into five Major waves, but both Major waves 1 and 3 are subdividing into five Intermediate waves. Major waves 1 and 2 of Primary III completed in 2012 at SPX 1422 and 1267 respectively. Major wave 3 has been underway since that low. Within Major wave 3 Intermediate waves i and ii have already completed, and Intermediate wave iii has been rising since the the SPX 1343 Int. wave ii low.

SPXweekly

Upon completion of this uptrend, Int. iii, most likely within the range of the OEW 1552 pivot, an Int. iv correction should unfold of about 4% to 5%. Then Int. wave v will complete Major wave 3 in probably Q2, and possibly at all time new highs. Then after a Major wave 4 correction, Major wave 5 will complete Primary wave III probably in Q3. Finally, after a Primary IV correction, Primary wave V should end the bull market in Q4. Eventually we believe the SPX could reach 1700 and the DOW 16,000 before the bull market ends.

MEDIUM TERM: new uptrend highs

The mid-November uptrend, from the Int. wave ii SPX 1343 low, hit new highs this week. The SPX has now crossed 1500, and the DOW 14,000 for the first time since 2007. This uptrend has been a bit tricky at times. However, it continues to work its way higher with a few small deviations along the way. We have been counting this uptrend with the five Minor waves that create a bullish Intermediate wave.

SPXdaily

Minor wave 1 completed at SPX 1424. Then Minor wave 2 created a bullish irregular flat ending at SPX 1398: 1398-1448-1398. Minor wave 3 has been underway since that low. Our projection for Minor 3 was for a February high within the OEW 1523 pivot range. Friday started February and the SPX is with two points of that range: 1516-1530. After Minor wave 3 concludes we should see a 30+ point pullback for Minor wave 4. Then another rally, probably into the OEW 1552 pivot range, for Minor wave 5 and the completion on Intermediate wave iii. This is all likely to occur this month. Medium term support is at the 1499 and 1440 pivots, with resistance at the 1523 and 1552 pivots.

SHORT TERM

Short term support is at the 1499 pivot and SPX 1471/75, with resistance at the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Short term momentum rose to quite overbought on friday, after the equally quite oversold condition on thursday. The short term OEW charts remain positive since SPX 1420, with the reversal level now around 1500.

SPXhourly

From the Minor wave 2 low at SPX 1398 we have been counting five Minute waves, plus Micro waves and even Nano waves, the third degree lower from a Minor wave. Recently this complexity of subdivisions led to an erroneous potential Minor wave 3 call at SPX 1510. The market cleared away that count on friday and a much simpler count arose out of it. Project, monitor and adjust. We maintain Minute waves i and ii at SPX 1468 and 1452, and now add Minute waves iii and iv at SPX 1510 and 1497. Minute wave iii was quite extended subdividing into five Micro waves: 1469-1461-1502-1491-1510. Micro wave 3 subdivided into five Nano waves: 1473-1464-1485-1476-1502. Minute wave v, from the SPX 1497 Minute iv low, is now underway. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Th Asian markets gained 1.3% on the week. All indices remain in uptrends but S. Korea continues to weaken.

The European markets lost 1.6%, on large declines in Spain and Greece. All indices are uptrending but these two are weakening.

The Commodity equity group ended mixed and lost 0.3%. Brazil continues to weaken while all indices remain in uptrends.

Thr DJ World index gained 0.7% on the week and is uptrending.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continue to downtrend and lost 0.2% on the week.

Crude remains in an uptrend and gained 1.6% on the week.

Gold has been lagging all the metals, but gained 0.5% on the week. Copper, Platinum and Silver are all uptrending, plus, the GTX commodity index and GPX precious metals index are uptrending as well.

The USD is downtrending again, as expected, losing 0.8% on the week. The EURUSD keeps uptrending, gaining 1.3%. The JPYUSD has been downtrending, losing 2.1%, but is extremely oversold and may reverse soon.

NEXT WEEK

Factory orders kick off the economic week on monday at 10:00. Tuesday: ISM services. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims and Consumer credit. Friday: the Trade deficit. As for the FED. On tuesday FED governor Duke gives a speech at 8:30 in Duluth, Georgia. Then on thursday FED governor Stein gives a speech at the St. Louis FED at 9:30. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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182 Responses to weekend update

  1. Pingback: Risk-Reward Report – week 6 | The Risk-Reward Report

  2. HumbLEEd says:

    dart throwers buy stops getting Botdazled @ the .382 back Pit on this pop ESH Ok Im only going to risk 3.50 pts hit ok 4 hit ok 5 hit ok…

  3. Tony, is it possible that this is minor 4 and 5 to come?

  4. increasing tna shorts to 50% allocation from 30% @73.98 until noted otherwise.

  5. torehund says:

    tranquil video.

  6. HumbLEEd says:

    Bye Bye Maybe 3 on 60 min

  7. CB says:

    +d intraday right?

    • CB says:

      http://screencast.com/t/6nsWUgh1Hv
      I am sure it could still go to Tony’s Ma at 1394 ish, but this is good enough for me – I know I am a sucker for any +d

      • CB says:


        Igor, I’m gonna borrow tht quote from your reformed broker guy, OK”: “good luck with that, and don’t get emotional.” ;)

      • ronini3 says:

        go get your right shoulder! :)

      • leelee64 says:

        C B
        Is that a Syrian woodpecker ? THX

      • CB says:

        lol..are saying I am gonna lose my entire shoulder now?…oK, I’ll watch for it just in case…and if you see something, say something I3 :)

      • ronini3 says:

        I see fury rat a$$e$!

      • CB says:

        :)) Lee, for me it’s one heck of a woodpecker..what have you got for us, King Lee?
        Btw, my soybeans questions from last week is still outstanding, so I was gonna refrain from asking any more dumb questions for now..

      • leelee64 says:

        Hey C B

        Soybean question ? I’m sorry if I missed it. I don’t trade em but I can give it a guess ;) What was it again please.

      • CB says:

        Lee, if you happen to look at it sometime, just the usual question: do you see some kind of a bottom there, that would justify holding itlong it for more than 5 min? I am talking like..days, maybe .. Thanks Lee. Appreciate ur guesses. :))

      • HumbLEEd says:

        I’ll look at some weeklies C B and get back to ya ltr today..no problemo

      • CB says:

        thanks Lee! See ur new name – is it true that the best traders are those who R most humble ?, and RU saying some of us not humble enough, maybe?.. ..geez, I may have some more humility coming on that intraday chart ( now that Boehner said sth)..

  8. mokiepon says:

    This is the same area (1496-98) that faked us out last week. Eyeing this pullback with suspicion. M

    • rc1269 says:

      seems like too soon of a retest. thinking this time we’re more likely to break through it on the downside. Europe got absolutely shellacked, and closed at the lows.

      • mokiepon says:

        rc, yeah, I saw Europe get clobbered. Well, if it breaks down hard, I’ll try to take another pony ride. If not, I’ll just stay where I am, or if Tony thinks it will rise, I’ll buy a couple things, maybe. M

    • mokiepon says:

      It’s just sitting there at 1499 teasing me… Like a boyfriend I had in my youth, long ago. M

  9. thehomelessdaytrader says:

    Here’s my two cents (careful, now, they’re wooden, so take them for what they’re worth, which is nothing) but if DOW loses 13860, then we go to 13700 +/- before we see the next new high …

  10. ronini3 says:

    The rat a$$e$ don’t care if SPX works it way back up to 1524, as for now we got fireworks!

    • CB says:

      hey I3, too early, no?..the yr of the snake doesn’t start until the 10th or so, right?…is it gonna be good or bad?… looks like it’s gona be downhill for me from now on…so I remain hopeful :roll:

      • ronini3 says:

        Snake = little dragon in China. I don’t know the implication of it on the market. I guess it all depends on what kind of the snake it turns out to be; the little garden snake vs the King Cobra!

      • CB says:

        or boa constrictor ;)

      • CB says:

        haha, I3 nice pic there…think we can say that chicks dig SOME of them…depends on the frames I guess.

      • CB says:

        flyboys…haa, dont’ know about that…I married a flying Sagittarius…those guys like to take off and never arrive ;)

      • ronini3 says:

        Seriously tho, I am not a pilot. My oldman was. He flew F100 back in his days. I wanted to be a fighter pilot just like him, but look at the thickness of those lenses! Not a chance!

      • CB says:

        I3, nice -you have a cool dad.
        Hey, those glasses, yeah..what movie are they from (ouch… it hurst to just look at those lenses…lol)..or did you get them at the toilette store ;) (OK, not mine …you guys know what movie that quote is from)…j/k guys…I am hurting too much today….need a laugh

      • CB says:

        lol…thanks..that did it…well, you can tell I don’t watch many macho movies…..this one looks real funny though…oh, .and don’t get upset about lenses, guys.. I need them myself…but those big newfangled ones are just a really bad idea, I think…waaay too big, imho.

    • ronini3 says:

      Chicane dig flyboys!

  11. leelee64 says:

    Ok guys have a good day !
    Buzz me if u have any questions ..I will be happy to give a silly straw answer

    H D
    What a game ! I lost $ on SF but at least Ray Lewis didn’t do the electric stab ..I mean slide

  12. mkbull says:

    Tony,
    At what level the SPX needs to break down for you consider Minute v ended?

    • tony caldaro says:

      Short term support is at the 1499 pivot and SPX 1471/75, with resistance at the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Short term momentum rose to quite overbought on friday, after the equally quite oversold condition on thursday. The short term OEW charts remain positive since SPX 1420, with the reversal level now around 1500.

  13. H D says:

    GM all, maybe the bulls will turn the lights off?

  14. leelee64 says:

    morn
    Going to take me a while to read thru these posts :)
    My scalping volume chart 1 for 1 in Feb T2T so far

  15. mokiepon says:

    Into uvxy pre-mkts at 10.98. Off to work before mkts open. TTYL.
    M

  16. friday, 2013/01/31, short term indicators/systems:
    eliott PSTT: remains on buy signal.
    qqq indicator: +7, down from +8, remains on buy signal.
    smart money indicator: remains on -9, remains on sell signal.
    2faced longs 0.23% loss today.
    2faced shorts: 0.27% loss today.
    spy +1.03%.

    from 2031/01/11 to date 2faced longs +6.02% while spy longs +3.01%.
    from 2013/01/09 2 faced shorts profit was 2.27% while spy during same period was +3.65%.
    the average of both 2faced longs and shorts returned 4.145% while spy at best returned + 3.65%, quite good so far for a market neutral system. january 2faced trades were closed out at friday’s close for the start of new feb. 2 faced longs/shorts.

    heaven and hell long term crash indicator: at +4, unchanged, no crash in sight.
    -10 signals an impending crash.

  17. torehund says:

    Pair trade, long us equities and short south korea…or is this just the beginning in Asia.
    Huh.. almostly despicably bullish sentiment over there…

  18. fionamargaret says:

    One always plays harder if one has seen lights out and is still standing.

  19. torehund says:

    Just one thought more; since these waves appear to adhere to a pattern of beeing live structures, as imprints of a preformed universal plan influenced by human interaction/events summed up( like in bending of preformed waves), then maybe the waves are really 3 dimensional in structure, but we only identify them as 2 dimensional at our screen. So when we measure angles and length on the waves to ascertain an end or a beginning to the waves we may be fooled as we can not see when a wave is going away from us or going towards us. In these cases the wave would appear shorter as we only have access to a 2 dimensional charts.

  20. fionamargaret says:

    Tony, I would really appreciate if you could correlate the Delta Phenomenon to the current market.

  21. Tom Green says:

    M

    We are both ” spring chickens ” thanks to modern medicine and self education on health matters, although I have you by a few years. I have the utmost confidence in the younger generation. I get to witness, through my own eyes,as I watch my children mature and the contributions they have already made. It’s quite refreshing. I don’t think they will screw it up, just the incumbents in Washington hold the answer to that. If not, ultimately they will be gone.

    I’ve already incouraged them to be educated investors, which they have embraced, and will gladly share with them everything I learn here. Just think, we have at least another third to go.

    T2T

    • torehund says:

      The young generation have to fight down the older generation and all will be fine, thats how nature works. We are already too imprinted by the past to contribute meaningfully to the future. Our task is to get the new generation strong enough to defeat us, thats our job…and thats evolution.

    • mokiepon says:

      T2T, I hear ya. I watch the kids too, but still worry that many things are beyond their control, but such is life. It’s also different from a woman’s perspective. Many of the women I know fail to truly discipline (I don’t mean spanking, or punishment) their children to expect pressure from the world once they’re out in it. They spend far more time trying to be ‘friends’ with their kids and therefore doing their children and themselves a disservice.

      I have to compete with this when I insist that my kids (foster kids) hold part-time jobs during the summer, pay a small amount in rent ($10 mo.) and present a budget to me each month. They can all balance a checkbook and none of them overspends. (Not the baby, of course..He trades on ETrade. LOL!) The boys know how to cook and clean and the girls know how to maintain a vehicle (oil checks, tire pressure, etc.) It’s not my intention to be hard on them, but to prepare them for the real world.

      It’s getting time for me to stop raising kids afte these are on their own. I’d have a bucket list and would like to fulfill some of it. May we all get that chance.

      Melinda

    • torehund says:

      Universe will permit the younger generations to see and comprehend more than we were ever permitted to see. I think this goes stepwise just like electrons have different orbital shells to inhabit and never resides stable in an inbetween phase. Little like the different price levels of a biotech, they tend to reside in 5 or so separate price groups. Just like the electrons, LOL.

  22. CB says:

    Thanks Tony! Market action on Fri. really illustrates how important it is to try to underatand all the nuance that you capture in ur mkt. updates – clearly U mentioned 2 conditions in ur Thurs. update, one of which clearly wasn’t met , and those of us who chose to ignore that fact & took a risk on the NFP had to pay accordingly. Ur objectivity is greatly appreciated, Tony.

    When u have some time Tony, historically, what is therelationship between the gold market (bull/bear) and the stock market ?

    Lee, you go pig hunting with Bob. P? wow, that’s so cool!! &all the kids here as very impressed…a futures trader hunting with a psychologist & a former rock musician..wow you guys rock exponentially!…hey Lee, next time you go hunting with those movers &shakers , could you pls. ask. Bob what he thinks about that hi-lo hemline…socionomically speaking :)) … Btw, I think Bob P. is a really good business person… he must have a lot of psychologists working for him in the customer service…when I subscribed to their stuff in 2009 & decided to cancel, they were sooo nice to me!…I’ve never gotten so much TLC from any other customers service (when cancelling)….great training, manners, etc…He really understands how humans work I have to say..

  23. thebbliss says:

    Tony,

    Excellent weekend report! In this report you mentioned that “SPX could reach 1700 …before the bull market ends.” Have you changed your bias a little in favor of the upside target of 1700 vs. 1556? At this point, what probability would you give one over the other?

    Many thanks,
    Bill C

  24. This is great. I like your view on a possible bear market scenario at Q4 of this year. I guess at some point this bull market will have to end.

    http://thegrowthinvestor.wordpress.com/2013/02/03/weekly-market-review-bull-market-rolls-on/

  25. mokiepon says:

    torehund, here’s an article re: smallcaps. Please give me your opinion when you’re able. Thanks!

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/1152541-a-simple-but-powerful-greenblatt-smallcaps-system?source=email_etf_daily&ifp=0

    M

    • torehund says:

      Sure M- it could work but is tedious and hedging/stopplosses etc makes itdiffifult and cumbersome. And one also has to get the general direction of market to match it..
      In small pharma they excist on different levels 20- 50 mill mcap, 100 to 400 mill mcap and then 500 mill to 5 bill mcap and tehn 10-20 bill to 200 bill mcap. And each stock belongs to a certain category. like in life there is some “social mobility” that depends on market conditions and how well the stock performs.
      The big reward in this model is to find the ones that will ascend from the lowest to the next lowest mcap classification group… One do that by picking the best stocks in the 20 to 50 million group and wait until they go to the 100-400 mill mcap level, as you can see this is where you find the elusive 10 baggers. My pharmas as you will see belong to the 20 to 50 mill bracket all of them, except for DNDN that is at the low end of the 500 mill to 5 bill spectrum… hope this helps for picking pharma small caps.

      • torehund says:

        ARWR is the stock that may make all the 4 quantum leaps from 30 mill mcap to 300 million mcap. Like a bum with the brown bag cheap whisky covered bottle in his hand to becoming president..

      • torehund says:

        Melinda there is also the 5 th level of stocks in pharmas (from 500 000 to 4 mill mcap), here you find the real dumpsters like Poniard, Telik, Bionova. Some of them also descend to the Pink list and some go BK. Like Poniard is currently on the lower range and with farorable market conditions could go to 4 mill or so..But to do a quantum leap to next division it would have to get some really fundamentally good news on their drug development.

      • mokiepon says:

        Thanks torehund. Given my age, I’m wanting to be out of most stocks before this sec. Bear bottoms. I want to see which ones survive and thrive and go from there.

        It’s not a pharma, but the sm. cap. that I will likely buy and sell through each cycle is VLCCF. I love this little stock! Hope it survives and thrives because if it does, I want to own lots of it!

        Melinda

    • torehund says:

      VLCCF are very large crude carriers, even if smallcap. Think what the dividend will be if oil goes to 300 a barrel

  26. torehund says:

    Some pecularities to air late on Saturday. It goes like this: it seems to me that the elliot wave patterns are mostly predetermined, but as a living structure the waves have the option to respond to extrenal forces like for axample spontaneous optimism, that could be networks of reaction in our world matrix, just adding to the complexity of the waves themselves. Its like the basic struckture of the waves is the DNA, and that the bending and twisting is the modulation of the DNA just like it works in our own body. That makes the waves a living organism, if true somewhat impressive if you ask me.
    I like to think that my observations are pretty accurate and also bet money on them. Of course loosing the money is one thing, the more dishartening is it to see that my understanding of the waves were still not complete. As loosing causes more than a little pain in my wallet, I try to compensate by evolving a theory that encompasses a basic wave structure, calculate the distortions caused by external stimuli to see where they naturally end. So a tired daddy long-legs complex, I hang them up and strech them in the 2 d space to see where they would normally go.
    A funny example is the PSDV stock that worked on a large motivated wave some time ago and then suddenly collapsed due to external forces (shelf dilution), and it collapsed even more than the shelf itself would have caused in a normal market, why oh yes due to a collective surge of pessimism tehre was added pressure on the motive 5. So this once in a time proud spirited motivated 5 th wave structure kneeled and bent under the external pressure, but the stock itself was bullish as ever( fundamentals is like the DNA).
    Well then it went into a flatline modus after a steep ABC correction, but as the motivated 5th wave had already collapsed hard it didnt go vertical to retrace an already collapsde 5 th wave structure as this would have caused the retracement to go sub zero, and you would actually have to PAY to get rid of the stock….. So the remaining retracement part made a near flatline just slowly descending slope to avoid going subsero (subzero stocks dont yet exist). But the important part is, that the length of the retracement even if flatlining IS as LONG as if the 5 th wave had been acting soundly, and heck then the stock would have been more like 8 dollars and not 3 dollars before the retracement begun.
    So my aim is to rearrange the crashed 5 th wave and then measure a natural length of the retracement of that 5th to tell me how long it will flatline/slow descending. But as I see that the downforce is getting smaller by the day and I am just waiting for a brand new motivated wave that may even act in an optimistic fashion, I can patiently wait even if I miss by some inches or 2.

    Point is that a motive wave and a corrective wave are mouldable structures (affected by external input) and not just positives waves and negative waves respectively. See you all tomorrow.

    • torehund says:

      The preformed waves is the overall plan or map of the universe, but the human matrix(all of us together) can bend any preformed wave to any degree. Thats both scary and comforting, simultaneously.

      • torehund says:

        As humans we are the equivalent of the micro or siRNA that moulds and finetunes the DNA. A humans we can collectively alter (bend or twist) the preformed plan of the universe…..That is how strong and weak we are collectively.

      • tony caldaro says:

        Agree. But let’s refrain from cloning and making new species.

      • torehund says:

        Tony, even a cloned individual would be very different from the original even when exactly the same DNA is transferred, due to different external input (that moulds the expression of each DNA and new imprints on teh regulary level) . This plasticity is the reason why we as humans are adaptable, and a copy of ourself could live and function in a more complex future world, as well as in times of heavy physical and mental stress (stoneage).
        Micro or signal RNA (formerly perceived as junk DNA/junk RNA), has changed the perception of genes, as they constitute a superlevel of gene control. Like if you go to a concert, finds the whole concert to be intolerable, walks over to a violinist and asks him kindly to cease playing…you would still be plagued by the 99 other violinists playing 1 percent louder..
        If you were the correct micro or “silencing” RNA, you would plainly walk over to the director and command HIM to stop or at least take a break while you the micro RNA is present and demangs the whole concert to “silence”.
        Instead of impeding a certain gene product (a protein inhibitor), micro RNA are much more powerful and has already in animal studies proven to be revolutionarinary effective.
        When Arrowhead research released their study on slimming of Apes and inhibition of hepatit B virus, I thought the stock would skyrocket (hey these are through the roof results). My theory now is that since the stock had only done 4 out of 5 waves down (from year 2000 or so), the external input (great news) was neutralised by the universal pattern of the stock (which was one more fractal down to go). The great results just made a positive bend(dent) on the (by universe) pre-planned final wave down. The participators in the stockmarket arent by nature( as yet) allowed to clearly dicipher the greatness of the discoveries until the last wave has passed…

      • tony caldaro says:

        Nature creates life, procreation creates life, implanting sperm cells in eggs creates life.
        These are all natural, with some assistance.
        But manipulating DNA to create new lifeforms is very dangerous.
        We are not evolved enough to deal with it. Because if we were we wouldn’t even consider it.

      • torehund says:

        Tony seems like laws of the universe doesnt allow us to proceede in the stem/cell and cloning direction so most of the companies just meet so much adversity that they have to close the doors. Could be that it isnt allowed for us to go in that direction and that nature automatically prevents it.

  27. This market shows a striking similarity to the 2011 run up.
    http://tacticalstrategist.com/2013/02/03/deja-vu-market-tactical-view-2013-02-02/
    I think there is still some room left (in line with the missing 5th wave on Tony’s charts), but chasing the market is becoming dangerous.
    As for the vix that some people mentioned here: I believe TA on that instrument is giving many wrong signals. It is a synthetic instrument based on hedging activity (option supply and demand) and will thus always show a run-up before any event (e.g. jobs number, fiscal cliff debate) and subsequent crash (de-hedging). It is mean reverting and very volatile in itself.

  28. deltastrikejj says:

    Tony, so you are saying primary 3 will likely end in Q2 meaning the first 3 primary waves will have taken 4 years to complete off the March 09 lows, yet you think Primary 4 and 5 will only take 6 months to unfold? For some reason to me this doesn’t seem likely. Are you suggesting the volatility of the next few primary waves will increase and therefore not really subdivide or take as long to play out as the first 3 waves? Just curious thanks

  29. torehund says:

    Thanks Tony !

    My brain is always working on these waves and one thing struck me today that I have not been thinking of. Lets say that the wave pattern on a large scale neither will reject nor approve both hyperinflation and or deflation simultaneously.. As if both forces arent resolved in one direction or an other (fex due to governments intervention) but just flutters and neither arent rejected by EW theory. And when one pattern is choosen inflation is in a nanosecond either going to infinity (stock market up), or deflation going to maximum (stocks and stuff going to zero). I am not expecting an answer, just a philosophical thought.

    • tony caldaro says:

      We are in a deflationary secular cycle, with an inflationary government/FED policy.
      Net result so far, is the gov’t/FED accomplishing their mission by driving the market back to the 2007 highs.
      Remember, when Obama was elected Ben had just started a moderate $250bln QE1 and the SPX was around 800.

    • mokiepon says:

      torehund, I’m glad you’ve calmed down. I started reading your post above and immediately sensed the upset.

      When I begin to feel as you did, I try to remember that economies ARE living creatures. If the economy(s) in question are deflationary, the behavior is like that of a wounded animal. Even though the creature is weakened (neg. GDP & other weak repts), it fights back to gain its footing (recovery in output, spending, confidence, etc.). Then, as the animal weakens again, the deflation shows itself again, with more unexpected bad reports. The deflationary cycle will go on like this until all is deleveraged, or whatever else caused the crisis is resolved enough for the creature to regain its strength.

      It was my turn to be phylisophical tonight. Keeping in mind that my Dad was born in 1912 and was a young man desperate for work during the Great Dep. He finally went to Alaska to mine gold. Since I was his first born, he hammered every fact and intuition into me about what deflation will look like and how it works because he thought that it might be seen again during my lifetime. He was right, and I’m now very grateful for his constant nagging.

      Will save the discussion of how EU, UK, USA are exporting deflation to Asia and others for another time.

      M

      • Tom Green says:

        M

        That was very interesting about your dad. My dad was born in 1926. Tom Brokhow said it best in his book “The Greatest Generation” . We often forget where we come from, and what we should be grateful for. When my dad was a mere 18 yrs old, he hit the beaches of Normandy, and later was the first wave that liberated Paris. By the way he remembers the day after the liberation as the biggest party and hangover ever. Was the recipient of the greatest social welfare program and most successful, called the GI Bill. Got to go to college. Interesting thing growing up in the depression, and the impact it had, never owned a share of stock. When I went to Wall Street, as a young man in the 70′s, at first he was disappointed being very risk adverse, he later changed his mind.

        T2T

      • mokiepon says:

        T2T, Wow, my Dad was just a cargo pilot in the war. You’re Dad was a true Freedom Fighter! Normandy.. I’ve stood on those sites and just imagined what it must have been like. Imagine is all I can do because no doubt, the bloody reality would have been unimagineable. Yes, they are The Greatest Generation since the War of Independence. (I have to give our Founding Generation & The One’s before them at least the same credit.)

        As I near ever closer to 60 years of age, I can’t help but wonder what the younger people will face in their time? I wonder, what kind of people will they turn out to be? I have other questions, but they’re very dark and I don’t want to be dark right now.

        My Dad was of a time in which he didn’t expect a woman to ‘accomplish’ anything of note. I hope to prove him wrong. More than that, I’m going to do whatever I want to do, as finances will allow me, regardless of what he might have thought.

        You went to Wall St. in 1970′s and I just merely watched NBR and WSW w/Louie on Friday nights & bought small amts. of stocks through my Dad, when he would let me. My friends just didn’t understand why I insisted on watching these “square” TV shows w/Dad. I have a hunch they get the picture now…

        Melinda

      • torehund says:

        You are so spot on Melinda. Thats why this animal (market), retraces upwards fast. BUT that injured lion may just think its injured and weakened, and then be strong as ever…But when it suddenly accepts that its strong as ever, it turns weak…oh that market, lol.

  30. thoth8 says:

    Tony, more than 4000 years : )

  31. fionamargaret says:

    I found this interesting………..
    http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/chris-puplava/secular-bear-market-in-stocks-is-over

    Thanks Tony for all you do.

  32. ronini3 says:

    I believe all the rat a$$e$ want to be on the right side of the trades.

  33. thoth8 says:

    Thanks Tony for weekend update. I would like to sincerely wish you the longevity of Cypress Tree!!!
    Thanks as always!

  34. mokiepon says:

    Great Update Tony! Thank you so much.

    From Mcbinsure: “It is important to note that I am a trader. I don’t give a rats ass where the market goes as long as I am on the right side of it.”

    Mcb, almost my sentiments exactly. I do hope to live long enough to see the next Secular Bull where I can invest, as well as trade. Welcome to the site.

    Melinda

  35. Tony, with the other metals uptrending, do you expect Gold to follow? Is there a price close on Gold which would confirm an uptrend/downtrend? Thanks :-)

  36. gingermancan says:

    Hi Tony
    New to elliot wave
    Is your supercycle wave correspond to the traditional secular bull cycle? And

    • tony caldaro says:

      Welcome Gingerman,
      Bull/bear Secular cycles take 16-18 years.
      Bullish supercycles take 70-80 years.
      Supercycles do bottom during Secular bear cycles, but approximately alternate cycles.

  37. budfox9450 says:

    Thanks for the Weekedn Update, Tony. Stay well….

  38. pooch77 says:

    As we await the top i continue to monitor SnP 500 stocks above 200ma.We are currently at 86%.The 5 year high was 95% in 2009 the run from March lows to top.Bottom to top has been a minium of 3 months time and 200 SnP points.So Nov 16th 2012 1347.So target of 1556 would work mid Feb ,but would they try to take out all time highs before this run ends 1576ish…stay tuned

  39. pooch77 says:

    As we are all waiting for a top i continue to watch SnP 500 stocks above 200ma.We are currently at 86%.In the last 5 years the highest has been 96% after March 09 bottom run to top.Every move up from a bottom has been a minium of 200 snp points and ran at least 3 months.So bottom was 1347 mid Nov.2012. So 1556 would work but would they try for the top 1576 and then let her go down…stay tuned

  40. Hi Tony, thx for the great update. You mentioned that a new bull market in housing started in 2011. How long would you expect that bull market to last for and would it be logical to assume that it might end along with the equities bull market? Thx!

    • tony caldaro says:

      Hi Hedgie,
      We were only expecting about a 15%-20% rise in housing prices off the bottom.
      Housing follows expansion/recession cycles.
      Since housing bottomed late, it is likely to top late.
      Generally speaking then, yes.

  41. mcbinsure says:

    I have been around elliott wave since Prechter and Frost. Never have I seen anyone explain elliott wave better than this gentleman. I am probalbly as good as tony but only because I have been around longer than God and have made every mistake possible reading the waves including taking the advise of morons like Prechter Houchburg and Gleen Neely etc.

    It is important to note that I am a trader. I don’t give a rats ass where the market goes as long as I am on the right side of it.

    I have some great advice for newbies. Listen to this guy. Take his course and stop following doomsdayers like r Prechter and Harry Dent

    • pooch77 says:

      Very well said,Mc hope you could leave our wisdom on trading here,2 heads are better than one!!! Tony is the best and charges nothing,a rarity these days.If your good would you not make enough money on what your preaching? That is my take on Tony + his generosity

    • tony caldaro says:

      Welcome Mcb,
      Then we are probably the same age =)
      Personally knew Frost and know Bob since the 80′s too.

      • leelee64 says:

        That’s pretty cool about Frost !
        And u worked with Tullis Sr. who Paul Jones admired greatly.
        Now personally I don’t think Bobby P (thats what his buddies get to call him when we go feral pig hunting in Georgia) is anything close to a moron.
        You want to make $$ no matter the direction trade options ;)

      • tony caldaro says:

        AJ’s friends called him Jack like in Jack Frost ;)
        Eli cornered the entire US cotton crop, before they made that sort of thing illegal.
        He beat the gov’t in court, but they instituted position limits after that.
        Actually Bob learned about EW from Bob Farrell at Merrill.
        Merrill had most of the well known technicians of today, all under the same roof in the 1970′s.
        Farrell was the mentor. Geez that was 40 years ago

      • Tom Green says:

        Knew Bob Farrell well, started this journey with Merrill Lynch in the 70′s. Farrell was top notch and a straight shooter.

        T2T

      • tony caldaro says:

        you worked at Merrill?

  42. andysingal says:

    Holding spxu for weekend for a pullback to 1490

  43. M1 says:

    My alt count still looks valid, http://scharts.co/X7HRh7
    However, we may need to adjust it if the market goes higher the next several weeks.

  44. Pingback: Risk-Reward Report – week 5 | The Risk-Reward Report

  45. M1 says:

    Good morning, Tony. Thanks for this update.
    Minute wave ii was simple. So I am open to see an irregular minute wave iv before minor 3 concludes…. http://scharts.co/WLf1Vb
    Should this be correct the market will correct next week. 1490 comes to play.
    Good luck and have a nice weekend.

  46. rolandu11 says:

    Thanks Tony,

    according to my indicators the market became overheated now, but normally markets get more overheated. And I have no medium term sell signal yet.
    Some words as an explanation: I look mainly at the stock market in this case. E.g. the vix displayed earlier a overheating. But in my mind the vix is only a part of the picture. The stock market have to give the sell signal itself.

    Just for fun
    http://s1.directupload.net/file/d/3154/7odlaj2n_jpg.htm

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