thursday update

SHORT TERM: pullback continues, DOW -50

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.7%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 368K vs 330K, Personal income was higher: +2.6% vs +0.6%, Personal spending higher: +0.2% vs +0.4%, and PCE prices were flat: 0.0% vs 0.0%. The market opened two points below yesterday’s SPX 1502 close, then dipped to 1498 before trying to rally. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported higher: 55.6 vs 48.9. The market then rallied to SPX 1504 by 10:00. Another pullback followed to a lower low at SPX 1497. Then after hitting quite oversold, short term, the market tried to rally again. At 2:30 the market made another lower high at SPX 1503, then pulled back into a 1498 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.15%. Bonds gained 3 ticks, Crude slid 45 cents, Gold lost $10, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops to the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Tomorrow: the monthly Payrolls report at 8:30 (est. +180K); Consumer sentiment, ISM manufacturing and Construction spending at 10:00; then monthly Auto sales.

The market opened slightly lower today, dropped to the SPX 1498 level we noted yesterday, rallied to 1504, and then dropped to a lower low at 1497. This lower low completely retraces the potential Minute wave v we noted yesterday, (1498-1510), suggesting Minor wave 3 completed at SPX 1510. To confirm this event two things should occur: 1. a pullback of more than 10 points – done, and 2: our short term OEW charts turning negative, which currently requires a drop to below SPX 1497. Probabilities suggest this will occur shortly.

With Minor wave 3 completed at SPX 1510 we should then expect a 30+ point decline for Minor wave 4. There is some wave structure support around SPX 1480, and then the bull market breakout level is at SPX 1471/75. After this pullback, the uptrend should then resume its rise to new highs for Minor wave 5.

Short term support is at SPX 1471/75 and 1462/64, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Short term momentum dropped to quite oversold after yesterday’s negative divergence, then bounced to neutral before heading lower again. The short term OEW charts remain barely positive with the swing level now around 1497. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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174 Responses to thursday update

  1. Sold my SSOs earlier today at $67.90. Had one batch, in different account, I realized, still from Jan 2nd… bought those at $62.30… That was a nice run!!! All out of my market-related longs for now; enjoying my profits for a beautiful sunny weekend in Cali.

    I really enjoyed my first day on this blog and look forward to the weekend update. I note that the weekly SPX chart looks long and strong, with a strong MACD, prices pushing against the upper Bollinger Bands (BBs), the BBs expandin, and the RSI (14) is also long and strong. But, nearing OB. The full stochastic is totally MAXed out. All very bullish and seems like we need a red-week or so to bring things back to more normal before the uptrend resumes. Can we say Minor 4 next week?

    Tony what are the odds this puppy will straight go to 1550??? From a Fib extension perspective it seems unlikely (e.g. 1520isg is 1.23x wave 1 and often that’s where a wave 3 (of 3) ends.

  2. tommyboys says:

    MMM… 166 messages so far… near term top indicator ? Ten Year holding above 2% this afternoon with equity rally.

    • torehund says:

      Yes its getting bullish, so macros better keep up to keep it going.,…

      • torehund says:

        At some time in history bulls get it right too….what we have seen until now is reflation of disaster and some tech stocks running like Apple, rest is pretty much very much in the shambles.

      • spx881 says:

        There are no macros, there is only negative interest rates for savers and all printing presses rolling 24/7. Bernake should go to prison for literally forcing the average 70-90 year old Ma & Pa to either leave their hard earned cash in the inflation adjusted negative 2-5% return savings account, get into a game they don’t understand, or hide their cash under their mattress. Macros absolutely do not support an SPX 17.5 PE, so when the ink runs out and Ben’s helicopter crashes, carnage and a global economic meltdown (on a scale that will make the “Great Depression” and the 2009 crash seem like a walk in the park) will ensue and the “Greatest Depression” will have begun.

        Believe it is as sure as death and waking up with at least, one of those Friday night whiskey soaked eyes at 1:50 am, telling you she is the hottest woman your dumb ass has ever laid eyes on, and now that 1:50 AM beauty is that 9:00 AM (Holy Sh^t how in the f#ck did I get here and who is that 300 pound beast in the kitchen making me breakfast?

  3. CB says:

    well it becomes pretty clear on a Fri. like today that this is a managed mrkt, doesn’t. If traders were in charge, they would’ve run this thing to 1540 @ noon and then take profits…who knows it would probably cave in at the point due to profit-taking. The “managers”on the other hand know that if anyone here is to provide “liquidity services”over the weekend , “they” need to preserve some of the upside intact forMonday and beyond. .. cuz, who would want to hold an OB piece of..sth.. over the weekend, right?…so, here we go, we ‘manage’ it…at least the rules are clear…you know what you get paid for…

    • torehund says:

      Its all about hiding that sweet grape, and make it partly sour so that doubters leave. Then when coast is clear, the same individuals that will not enter, eventually take it down with them. Cruel yes, but as Rogers said ” it aint easy to get rich”.

      • CB says:

        well, like Tony says…mass psychology…U have to appreciate though how many trading opportunities ‘the’y provide intra-day..and .it’s hard work, like any other work….nothing easy about it

  4. list of new monthly 2faced longs and shorts will be prepared this week end.

    • torehund says:

      Folks dont as yet see the recovery, once they later do so, it will be ample time to redistribute…..Skittish as one is born to be, we sell some along the way so that not all we sell to will be long standing bagholders. Its a cruel game but nothing comes easy, making some costs, comfortwise and intellectually.

      • torehund says:

        and like the supertanker market IS, you shouldnt resist upisde change until it becomes very,very ridiculous. Two poles, equal length apart.

      • spx881 says:

        As a well known investor once said: “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”

  5. from thursday evening, 2013/01/31, short term indicators/systems:
    eliott PSTT: remains on buy signal.
    qqq indicator: +8, up from +6, remains on buy signal.
    smart money indicator: remains on -9, remains on sell signal.
    2faced longs 0.11% loss today.
    2faced shorts: 1.69% loss today.
    spy -0.25%.

    heaven and hell long term crash indicator: at +4 from +6 , no crash in sight.
    -10 signals an impending crash.

    my leading index of 20 stocks wass +0.91%today ,versus spy’s -0.25%, a very strong showing considering the spy’s lack luster day.

    the indicator i’m most paying attention to is the PSTT, when it signals a short sale it should be a very reliable signal, but we’re not close to any such signal today.

    • torehund says:

      Volumes are getting slimmer and bad stocks are getting real pounding, look at Celsion. But if you are undervalued and good value, the light volume makes wonders. At some stage participation rate have to improve to push it, and I think it will, be patient.
      Supertanker takes time to turn, but we have seen nothing yet, promise….almost.

    • torehund says:

      Bearishness will rise as the indexes rises. There will be waves of scepticism along the way, thats whats makes it interesting. When bullishness revert to ultralows we will seee the heaviest gains. Then trading will be light as now, but many cycles before that happens. Folks still shell shocked…

  6. Tom Green says:

    Lee

    You never gave me your Super Bowl pick.

  7. mokiepon says:

    Seeing buys come into VIX now… M

  8. torehund says:

    We are always thought to be correct in a political and sentiment wise sense, but the inner TRUTH, not our SUPPEREGO is somewhere else, not so prudent. We all have to respect our real assumptions that we may hide to unsucceede in stocks and fake shine among peers. Jesus it smells though…uugh.
    These two guys however are at least honest, dont mind the odor ! If you are an objective observer detached from corrective behaviour from society, and can keep your integrity no matter what, then you dont need this .Primitive ( and stinking) has some honesty hidden in itself, no doubt.

  9. piazzi says:

    As noted a few days ago,

    My methods indicate that
    trading cycle low has been due from Jan 26 into Feb 7
    Next intermediate cycle low is due in the April 5-May 17 time frame

    one can try to outsmart the market for trading cycles but, IMHO, intermediate cycles are where the most money is made

    The intermediate cycle low we picked at a second try in November is still making money without much ado

  10. radrian6 says:

    It looks like RUT might be a bit ahead of SPX in the wave count. From the Minute iv low of 894.34, it looks like Micro i and ii are complete with Micro iii underway. It also appears that Micro iii is subdividing with Nano i and ii complete and Nano iii underway. Today’s opening gap would be part of Nano iii — gaps can be a point of recognition for 3 of 3 so it seems to fit.

    If all the above is correct, we will get Nano iv and v then Micro iv and v to complete Minute V and end this Minor 3 marathon. SPX is hovering around 1513-14 as I write this so we’re very close to Tony’s target of 1523 +/- 7. Maybe we wrap up Minor 3 by the middle of next week …

    • torehund says:

      Look at the one year chart RUT vs SP 500, not much difference and RUT had a spilt back then..

      • radrian6 says:

        Torehund,
        Agree … I ran SPX and RUT on a “percentage change” chart and they track very closely. There’s just a bit of divergence from the low of November 2012.

  11. ronini3 says:

    torehund’s fallen angels..They look pretty good to me..

    torehund

    Hope Lee is alright!

    • torehund says:

      Somehow my dupmster diving candidates rhymes patternwise….so far, somehow. If I utter that ARWR (moose stock) and ROSG (also si RNA) is the new Microsoft and Apple of bitotech, hey then the car with wite curtains will come and get me ( eeh mental inst car). Good weekend to all in here, and thanks Tony that with his prudent backbone cover us in executing our haphazard ideas.

      • torehund says:

        Ronini, since you are online, look at PSDV, I just hang up the motivated wave in 2D, and the long flatlining seems to be a Long ABC. Well it jumped today but if this is a wave 2, 18 usd could be a feasible target as the former one did kneel badly. Fundamentals supports such a move as they are the inventors of a microdevice that will be sold soon in Europe. USA is on the heels but resubmission to FDA soon. Maybe FDA is also affected by some optimism in descision making, nort just looking at the possible negatives of a foreward action.

      • torehund says:

        PSDV entering wave 3 ?

      • ronini3 says:

        Torehund, I always steer away from the companies with pending FDA approvals. If I have to buy it then I would have a 1.01 stop. If 2.63 is cleared then 4.43 is possible.

      • torehund says:

        Ronini PSDV got a complete letter response last year, due to grumpiness. As bull matures concept of value distorts to the upside. Hey as in muy proffessional life truth was moldesd through social interactino, not by truth by itself. Truth was constructed to serve whoever was in power, so I quit…… Objective truth will always come back as a mean to it all….

    • leelee64 says:

      don’t worry about me I3 just hitting the button all day ..for 2 1/2 days

    • CB says:

      thanks for the charts I3. Coffee, is clearly is the recovery-mode (as it has been for QUITE a few days already,…. zzzzz boring is good sometimes, though)

      • torehund says:

        leelee64 dont party on a stock/surfing high ! Correct in an ABC and be ready for the week to come, you cant peak the peak, right.

  12. Tom Green says:

    Just got the mail. Enclosed was a flyer from COSCO.

    They are having another sale.
    T2T

  13. mokiepon says:

    This upside is not just Jobs related but more due to inflows from Fund Mgrs., etc. on 1st day of month. Went straight up ballistic and could fall like a rock every bit as steep. Hang onto yours! (I don’t have any of those, so…whatever.) M

    • Tom Green says:

      M

      Can mail you some brass ones. Need address.

      T2T

    • mokiepon says:

      Monday’s have been big down at the open and grind back up. Can’t help but wonder if this 5th will reach 1523. Just think aloud, don’t anyone get upset. Just that 4 was so quick and maybe 5 will be also. M

      • mokiepon says:

        Oh, I see Tony’s updated chart…Excellent! That works much better!

        I’m working half day today and can’t keep track as I usually would.

        M

      • torehund says:

        M- just dont think where we are right, now but project where a neutral sentiment would bring us. Tell yourself 10 years back and see the kind of worry you were carrying then compared to now.
        This is a neurotic depression, and when it lets loose you will find yourself at a different place, promise..And then all sceptics will say I told you so, even if they didnt utter a sentence at the bottom, thats life.-

  14. llerias7 says:

    Anyone with that feeling of “left behind”?

    I guess this the final V of Minor 3…

    • CB says:

      Hi llerias, I don’t remember who sad it, but I like it: in wave 1 U want to have lots of shares, in wave 3 U want to have fewer shares, and in wave 5 U want to have almost no shares…so if we act responsibly, we don’t feel “left behind” entirely…the game of minimizing our regret, huh?

    • torehund says:

      Difficult to say near term, but look at the big divergence behind us from the flash crash no one did mention. When that juice comes into play..wooooha..

    • Sorry, but nope I don’t feel left behind, long (sso) since 1498, after being long from Jan 2nd till the 1499 OEW was hit. I took profits there and reloaded on the dip yesterday. 3rd of a 3rd wave… yumm, trading those is as easy as trading ever gets!! Now just squeezing out the last drop; I will likely sell once 1515 is hit as it’s getting real close to the “margin of error”, where it’s “good enough” IMHO. BUT, this may also be micro 1 of minute v… especially since in this market -as Tony has shown and pointed out many times- the 1st waves were often the longest…

  15. Tom Green says:

    Lee

    Is it time to go dark? Or are you too ill?

    T2T

    • CB says:

      poor, Lee..so that’s why you’ve been trading in ur PJs since Tuesday,huh?,..the flu is awful, all the coughing and stuff…get some chicken soup Lee…andy hey, now you can also try the famous “Pajama Jeans,” (now apparently also available for men; they should help you get better fast ;)

      • leelee64 says:

        Hey C B
        Ill be burning those pajamas :)

      • CB says:

        Nice Lee..U sound like ur doing better already. Remember zinc & Vitamin C (Dr. Tony said so ). Lee, the great thing is we can’t even tell that ur sick, we’re just enjoying ur brilliant posts as always. Think U must’ve already broken the world record for “flu-texting.” today (and it’s still early) :)

      • leelee64 says:

        Hey C B
        I wouldnt of wished this on anyone.. I’m feeling a ton better at least like 99 bucks.
        I know I post a lot of crap *see postovirus…

      • CB says:

        Lee,they’re all good & we love them..I wasn’t sure how to say it, and I meant “the world record for meritorious flu-texting” but thought that word meritorious was kinda lengthy.. meant: the most posts with the most content :)

    • leelee64 says:

      Hey T2T
      If ur looking at the -div on the daily SPX
      I would mos def say get ready
      Tony mentioned here a few times that he pays more attention to -Div on the 5 th wave of a move than the 3 rd wave.
      Ive got a small neg – on my scalping Volume chart in ESH at the 1509.75 high
      U have ESH R3 pivot @ 1513 which =’s 1518 ish SPX and thats inside of Tony’s 1522 pivot range…But right now I still have to keep in the range of my bathroom.
      If were lucky enough to have any sell off happen during a day session I think it’ll be obvious when wave 5 of 3 is over IMO

  16. Tony; I have been following your blog and posts from the side line for a while now and am really impressed. The longer I followed the more I liked your counts and especially your neutral traders approach! So it its time to come out of the woods! :-)

    However, IMHO, the SPX finished minute iv yesterday, and is now working on minute v, targeting your 1523 OEW level. IMHO, today is too impulsive to count is as part of a corrective wave, in this case a b-wave. Minute iv also retracted to micro iv. Often higher degree 4th waves retrace to the level of the next lower degree 4th wave. Also, if you look at how deep previous minor 4 waves retraced (30-40 points), than this minor 4 is (too) shallow; whereas it fits better with how much minute iv waves retraces (10-20 points).

    I don’t want to come across as a “know it better” person, especially not during my 1st post ever, but I just wanted to voice what I see in the charts and hopefully add to the discussion and insights.

    Keep up the great work!!!

  17. CB says:

    sometimes the only way to win is to lose, and then join ‘em, right?..the reason this long trade is still working is…cuz it’s so high-risk :)
    If I remember correctly there was a study that concluded that brain-damaged people can trade better than others .. it was because after a loss they wrer repeatedly able to go back and bet again… that’s how I am feeling right now.,feels OK, actually :))

    • torehund says:

      Retracement in one small dimension may just be a motiviated wave in a larger dimension, that we dont see yet…

      • CB says:

        yeah, the big picture, tore…well, it’ s an uptrend unless priven otherwise, isn’t it….and now they have their ‘ official reason’ for a continued rally. he rsTi is back abv.. 70, so as long as we’re overbought and getting more overbought it is what it is, isn’t it.? ;)
        Igor, thanks again for those projections, btw. Great work Igor.

      • CB says:

        meant rsi abv 70..sorry

      • torehund says:

        Yepp CB, I see a change of that sentiment supertanker….slowly and hessitantly. Here in Norway sentiment is diverted from Drama classes beeing what young folks SHOULD do to engineering. Many have thought this for a while and not uttered it as sentiment didnt allow it. You know Norway is a littel secluded bubble, where everyone agrees with the last speaker…..

        Norwegians are known for their inability to express open anger, and we just hide our thoughts until there is a tsunami in the other direction. Norway is a country in which all hidden hate and anger towards minorities and their alleged explotation of our social welfare system was projected towards one single person….a very sensitive man that by nature was elected to slaughter 60 young aspirants at the working labour summer camp. He has twisted politics now by the day… if we the Norwegians had been more honest this would never have happened. thats what group thinking and mental avoidance leads to.
        So all in all the slaughtering is every Norwegians fault, and everybody knows, like Leonard Cohen sings….But scapegotery is part of what bear markets creates..well the majority is always right, and they are always too big and too cowardly simultane to take the blame, amen !
        PS if shift in sentiment is too harsh I may just join in with the immigrants protecting them, but then I am a contrarian by nature.
        In stocks I hope I am a contrarian at the end of a reversed 5…

      • Igor says:

        No problem, CB. You know, projections are just guidelines. The most difficult part is to follow these guidelines ;-)
        You, probably, will not believe, but the potential upside targets from the September-December correction pattern resides in the 1580-1590 area. No time guidelines though. Just food for thoughts. And there are going to be bumps on the road, of course. I’ll post charts over the weekend (you know, where to find it).

      • CB says:

        Tore, that’s interesting, thanks. Hey, some good soul-searching is always in order, and like U said it’s good to do it on a regular basis rather than risk going into the full ‘tsunami-mode.” We have those problems as well & politicians always suggest gun control without even thinking about how people get into that kind of mental state…guns don’t kill…people do.. And sorry to hear about that young guy & how it must have affected all of you In Norway. Hopefully that shock opened people up enough to discuss things openly & deal with some of those challenges. Very interesting what you said about ur national character. I heard a similar thing about Finland -that people there are pretty shy. Hey, maybe it has something to do with the cold climate -folks hold stuff in, instead of letting it out… what do you think?

        Igor, thanks again. Really appreciate ur work and help!

      • torehund says:

        About the Norwegian incidence; its all about wanting to appear more kind outwards than you are inwards…like we all will be perceived as hospitale when we are really just egoistic. We all want to paint our own pig, but when it goes too far something short-circuits. So its better to appear egoistic and act hospitale, then unpainting the pig. Thats more like me !

      • CB says:

        heyTore, you share with us lots of stuff..that’s altruistic.

  18. tommyboys says:

    ECRI WLI Slips – note the last sentence.

    A measure of future U.S. economic growth slipped last week, though the annualized growth rate rose to its highest level in more than 2-1/2 years, a research group said on Friday.

    The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index edged down to 129.7 in the week ended Jan 25 from 130.7 the previous week. That was originally reported as 130.6.
    The index’s annualized growth rate gained to 8.3 percent from 7.2 percent a week earlier. It was the highest level since May 2010. The growth rate has improved for the past four weeks in a row.

  19. thebbliss says:

    Tony,
    Any possibility Minute v has morphed into a diagonal from your original Minute iv low at 1491?
    i.e. [1491]-1503-1496-1510-1497-1511(or a little higher)

  20. leelee64 says:

    Nice Job Tony ! a.k.a Glorious leader a.k.a The Jim Jones of the Dow Jones
    (That was for u Erka.:)..seriously Erka u couldnt stop by at all to say hello ?)
    Ok guys Im going to trade and suffer in silence..haha ur lucky day

  21. torehund says:

    Two tooth trolls, one bull and one bear…

  22. blubrd67 says:

    ISM above consensus
    ISM new orders 53.3% vs 49.7%
    ISM employment 54% vs 51.9%
    Construction spending up 9.2%
    Consumer Sentiment rising
    Ford sales up 22%
    Chrysler, strongest in 5 years

    Wow, life is good!!! :)
    We might really be ripe now finally to fall down a bit.
    I still hope next week, not this one. Please market, I’m not ready yet. :)

  23. ronini3 says:

    I was just messing with you guys. I am the most relaxed and fun doood you will ever met, just ask Lee!

  24. Tom Green says:

    RC

    With the equity markets exuberance to the non farm payrolls, what are your thoughts of the muted response by the Treasury market? Yields down across the whole complex.

    Thanks
    T2T

    • rc1269 says:

      Hey Tom

      Fixed income market has been pretty chill the last few weeks really. If u want a specific thought on payrolls you can see my comment on Wednesday’s post. That is, the general trend is meaningful but the month to month ‘beats’ and ‘misses’ in NFP are pretty much complete garbage as useful data goes.
      One thing I’d recommend following is the Citi economic surprise index. When it drops below zero and the market is at near term highs then its a time to be cautious.
      Oh, and the equity market seems to have missed the fact our economy shrank last quarter. It’s all excuses, like weather, the fiscal cliff (which actually pulled forward growth), blah blah.
      Rates have sold off a lot lately (risen) ; it’s time for them to rally a little.

  25. leelee64 says:

    morn all
    scene of the crime in esh eh ? 1505
    Ive got this Norovirus and it’s a hell of a thing….
    I’ll spare the details…
    Trade well !

  26. mokiepon says:

    Looks like first day of the month inflows. If spx pops hard, I might drop this 1/2 position on uvxy and pick it up on Monday or later. M

  27. Dear Tony,
    Does the fact that the $DJI reacted on January 29, 2013 to a long-term pivot (see charts: http://theincrementaltrader.blogspot.it/2013/02/dow-jones-industrial-average-long-term.html), represent a concern? I see that you track long-term pivots for the S&P500, but you did not mention this important (also because it is the last before the very all-time top), on the Dow.
    Regards.

    • tony caldaro says:

      Hi!
      Have not found the DOW (or any other US index) pivots to be that useful from a trading perspective. It takes a lot of volume and a lot of players (liquidity) to make the pivots work. Nevertheless, you are correct.
      ciao!

  28. ronini3 says:

    What is up with all the music videos? Ok, I am in..No fibs, and no bots..”Symphony No. 7 in A major, Op. 92, II. Allegretto”

  29. fishonhook says:

    I went short on the break of the 1498 level you highlighted. Hope you are right even though futures are up

  30. torehund says:

    And even if we are the robots , we all fulfill some important part of the whole..

    Forget about the lyricks, if we are entering the real bull ,not the forced one, its good luggage..

  31. mokiepon says:

    NEWS FLASH: China’s Official Jan. PMI at 50.4, down from 50.6 in Dec. M

  32. torehund says:

    Tony and all, sorry I am off topic most of the time dealing with mooses and sugar. But what fascinates me with economy is force and counterforce and the shifts in equilibriums. Funny thing; nature has its way of going to THE extreme before it turns.
    After the drought corn got severely expensive so the farmers didnt find it worthwhile to feed the cattle corn, SO THEY SLAUGHTERED the animals and sold the meat instead. What an economical way to supress corn prices and make beef awefully expensive later on. Farmers knew coirn would come tumbling down.
    Well RN Elliot has its way, he even dictates the weather, and THAT I DIDNT KNOW. Seems like we and all stuff around us is one big lump of interconnected pieces, in time and space…

    • mokiepon says:

      We are all Fractals! M

      • torehund says:

        M- its somewhat spooky, I once followed a stock and did a wave count, felt like it was a bottom for it. It was a Friday, raining heavily outside my window.
        Then I decided to buy the stock but just could not, finger kneeled when trying to push the buy button. Ok I said, I will wait until Monday buing into it…took a stroll and thought (how many times haven you tried to avoid this situation). Forced myself to buy, and regretted like feeling money was already thrown out the window( bounced 20 percent Monday).
        Even if my wave skills were inferior at that time, I try to remember that ugly feeling as a sign to buy at a later stage (I was born into a bearmarket, still havent seen the real sun in the stockmarket). Somehow we all share the same feeling of value at a given time, educated or not, thats nature.

      • mokiepon says:

        “…Somehow we all share the same feeling of value at a given time, educated or not, thats nature.” This is one of the basics of Fractals.

        http://www.hulu.com/#!watch/181084

        Melinda

      • tony caldaro says:

        Nice video.
        Agree, there are recurring patterns, microcosm to macrocosm, throughout the universes(s).
        Light builds upon what works and discards what does not.
        Sort of like a market technician ;)

    • tony caldaro says:

      Seems like we and all stuff around us is one big lump of interconnected pieces, in time and space… in space/time and time/space EXACTLY

      • torehund says:

        And the scari stuff is, maybe WE are the robots…

      • mokiepon says:

        Right you are, Oh Fearless Leader! All is interconnected…

        torehund: Of course we’re the robots! And when Nature gets tired of us, SHE will puke us out like all the rest.

        That’s all the philosophy I can stand for today. LET’S TRADE!

        Melinda

  33. pooch77 says:

    Anyone know why dow futes are up .35% and all others ..07-.10%

  34. Hi Tony, for facebook, is there any chance that wave 3 finished at 32.50 and wave 4 completed today at $28.74 (admittedly the time duration seems a little short) ? crazy price action today. I appreciate your thoughts!

  35. I actually wouldn’t be surprised to see a 38,2-50% fibonacci retracement to reach the price gap at 1,425-1,435 http://marketsteps.net/articles/

  36. mokiepon says:

    Okay, I bought 1/2 position in uvxy 10.65. If we get a pop tomorrow because Jobs is good, I’ll hold there and possibly put on another 1/2 on Monday. I don’t like to hold a full position of uvxy over a weekend, unless it’s trending is very positive.

    Tony, I can’t prove what I’m about to say, but I think there’s an even possibility that v up could be truncated. Of course, I can’t be sure of this, but for some reason, I’m going to be watching for it. I have no idea why, but that’s the way it is.

    Good trading to All of You,
    M

  37. andysingal says:

    With the Debt celing delayed until May 18 no major pullbacks for sure, would you go long if we get a pullback to 1480. However if we get a pop to 1520 tomorrow would you short it. thanks

  38. mokiepon says:

    Thanks Tony. I’m ready for the decline. Still, if the Jobs meet or beat tomorrow, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a pop before the selling begins. Good trading to Everyone! M

    • andysingal says:

      Thanks Mokiepon, so if we get a bounce tomorrow you would go short with target 1480 correct?, thanks

      • mokiepon says:

        andy, please read my post above. I already bought 1/2 position uvxy, so I’m already short there. As far as a target goes, I don’t get married to a certain level, but use Tony’s levels as a guide.

        M

  39. CB says:

    Thanks Tony! I see that Lee won (as always)…. aargh :)

  40. llerias7 says:

    It seems that small caps are following another script, allways ready to pop!

    • torehund says:

      Ilerias, many smallcaps are at all time lows still, lots to retrace, as RUT index arent putting a lid on them anymore (broke out).

      • torehund says:

        Solar, green energy, rare earth/nat gas will pick up steam if oil rises above a certain threshold.
        And as commodity value is uds / other currencies X commodity price in usd, there has hardly been a cheaper time in history to buy these goods.
        As coal usage approaches a very obvious toxic level in many regions, nuclear power hazards diminishes. Coal firing in US alone prematurely ends chronic lungsufferers lives, approx 800 annually.
        Comparing WTI, and when green alt plummeted. Seems like my wti-indicator (STO) needs to rise just a couple of uds before alt energy comes into play.
        This time could be sweet spot to enter….
        But if you buy some now (TAN, wave 3 imminent?) your peers may not be laughing for very long.

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