SHORT TERM: new uptrend highs, DOW +72
Overnight the Asian markets were mixed and closed flat. Europe opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were higher/lower overnight, and at 9:00 Case-Shiller was reported higher: +5.5% vs +4.3%. The market opened one point below yesterday’s SPX 1500 close, but then rallied back to the uptrend high at 1503 by 10:00. At 10:00 Consumer confidence, a lagging indicator to consumer sentiment, was reported lower: 58.6 vs 65.1. The market then quickly pulled back to the low of the day at SPX 1498, and then began to rally. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1509, then ended the day at 1508.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.50%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds lost 2 ticks, Crude rallied $1.05, Gold gained $7, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1499 and 1440 pivots, with resistance at the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Tomorrow: ADP at 8:15, Q4 GDP (est. +1.0%) at 8:30, then the FOMC statement at 2:15. Should be quite a volatile day.
The market opened about flat today, rallied to SPX 1503, then pulled back to 1498. Holding the SPX 1496 wave support level, the market was set for a move higher. And it made new bull market highs. The suggested short term count worked out well, but we are in another subdividing wave. After Minute wave iv bottomed at SPX 1491 the market became quite choppy for a couple of days. We counted, however: a Micro wave 1 to SPX 1502, an irregular flat Micro wave 2 to SPX 1496, and a Micro 3 now subdividing into Nano waves: 1503-1498-1509 so far. We should see, in the coming days, five Nano waves up to complete Micro 3, a small pullback for Micro 4, then another rally into the OEW 1523 pivot range to complete Micro 5/Minute v/Minor 3. After that, the largest pullback since the end of December should follow.
Short term support is at the 1499 pivot and SPX 1471/75, with resistance at the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Short term momentum rallied to quite overbought during today’s rise. The short term OEW charts remain positive from SPX 1420, with the swing level now 1494. Best to your trading on potentially volatile FED day!
MEDIUM TERM: new uptrend high SPX 1509
LONG TERM: bull market
France on the hunt for yellowcake in Mali. Whole world on the look for resources that they arent using..
..and Japan secretly making deals in Uzbekisthan, when will this hoarding result in spot price elevation…
I thought Franchies went there for gold.
Hey R C
Bar time !
FB reporting
just a bit outside down 10% will it do a AMZN?
it’s too high! what do you mean it’s too high?! so far… yep, she’s pulling an AMZN. only -1.8% now.
somebody on the desk just said – “what to do with your FB winnings?” mighty chuckles.
Israeli AF made a strike on a weapons transport convoy near Syrian-Lebanese border. Don’t know any details, but bet it could spell trouble.
M
That was about 12 hours ago M
Syrian time our our time?
leelee, I’ve been away from a TV and news all day. The only blog I have is this one, so, what the hey.
rc, That was Syrian Standard Time…
M
M
U got to wear u big girl pants here
hasnt been too much quarreling down there although its top season around new year. The biggie is Iran and it has been silent too. Opec constricting output and trouble in that region spells rising petroleum prices, but not the way I wish for it to happen.
torehund, yes, Iran is very quiet and that spells trouble.
I dumped my gold short but quick and am going for something faster should we have a downturn, or trouble. Weapons convoy was likely Iranian-sponsored.
M
Here’s a chart from an insane guy @Stocktwits he was calling for 1200′s a month ago then turned bullish above 1434 ish SPX recently… which wasn’t a bad idea in my little world
Is this a form fitted chart or do u guys have the same TL ? THX
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-oryZynoX310/UQlyt4gtKFI/AAAAAAAAM7c/vetxJQTnrNo/s1600/1937+Trend+Line.png
ESH never made it to the R1 pivot today..been a while since that has happened.
S1 hit @ 1495.50 now
GL guys !
cool chart, thanks Lee!
Good chart lets break through…lets bring back the optimism !
Let the robot boogie down
Whenever the robots sell of I grab my kettlebells, do some Turkish getups…
ABC completed on SP 500 from 1510 top, but market will not make it that easy.. maybe boots will connect on some ugly complex ABC stuff later on. But you never know, boots arent exactly throwing shares out the pc -window.
Ok then a small ABC after the big one…time to short circulit the boots for today or ???
http://www.flickr.com/photos/69752877@N08/8430999476/sizes/l/in/photostream/
Looks like 3 waves up from 1343 ish ?
Its snowing now …good times
1.27 = 1521.
i3, thanks….where does that top TL start?
100% @1506
4/2011
5/2/2011.
sorry..
thanks I3. appreciate it!
CB, a nice resting spot for today..
yes, I3, kinda wishy-washy close…the Fed must be watching U watching it (that TL) -and that’s in Deniro-speak
have a gr8 afternoon everyone!
I am just a hooligan from Chicago..Watch out for that 1000 lotter..
haha..good one…Hooligan Alert, everyone!!
Like to see sort of a H&S forms in the next few days.
I wonder how fast the mood will change again.
Tony – thank you for the update on the SPX chart – careful indeed.
Cheers
pbnj
U make me proud
Back into the PP 1500.50 after taking out Globex low..
need a big red tail here
Tony posted a -Div and a careful 3 ?
Thanks Tony!
M
It looks like we won’t get volatility that usually happens with FOMC. Will probably finish around 1508, and battle next 2 days.
I just sold 1K ES at the market … wait for it … wait for it …
… and by “IT,” I mean HD’s 1440 pivot call …
wait until next week, middle to late, if we ever reach there..,
Bird, that’s a joke, right?!
M
With the action in the last half an hour you never know. It’s not developing the way I thought.
I expected it to end around 1508 today, but it’s not going there.
UVXY up over 11% today…
M
You called it!
Well, I guess if this thing is going to move, its up to me … here goes nothing – selling 1000 ES at the market …
THD,
This choppy action for the past few days could have been a Minute iv triangle.
And today’s last pop Minute v.
Think 1503 cash in the line in the sand.
GL
I’m going to have to call BS on u THD with that trade..
Nobody uses market orders
I do use market orders, Lee. But only to enter or exit!
I tried to help you guys out on the short side, but my broker would not allow the trade – something about “insufficient margin.” Whoever heard of such a thing!
good one THDT =)
Here’s a trick I learned to get things moving
There was a bigger reaction in the SPU’s when the O.J verdict came out….see if that works
in the voice of Judge Smails, “i’m waaaaaiting!”
I don’t post here often – but do read everyday to get a concensus. It appears to me charts are setting up for another overlap into wave 1 territory. I have a pullback to 1420′s ahead but also see another run at the all time highs before the market takes a nasty turn. I’m sure there are few here that agree – but every 3rd wave in this rally from Mar 09 has followed this same pattern. Guess we’ll find out soon enough – just my 2 cents.
ty Iaralda
For me it looks that a large gap up is imminent. Small cap space has a low volume oversold feel to it.
I might be sugarcoating market a bit, but here arent many sellers around..
Chen Guangbiao must be a big fan of Mel Brooks’ Spaceballs.
http://abcnews.go.com/International/chinas-filthy-air-prompts-mask-rush-cans-fresh/story?id=18352787
Perri-air, anyone??
gee, I’ve seen that on the news I3, they told ppl in Beijing to stay indoors??…how are they gonna solve that problem, is really interesting
http://media.liveauctiongroup.net/i/5766/8682715_2.jpg?v=8CC1C019C86EAF0
haha…that’s original…The Urban Warrior..
only one person got this Perri-air..
http://www.perrier.com/thedrop/en.html
https://www.deepakchopra.com/blog/view/921/being_right
This isn’t horse shoes but horse shoes is fun !
Best of luck to everyone here @ Tonys and I mean everyone.
Trade well !
: ) that’s a nice thought..thanks Lee!
btw. Lee, great point about people always wanting to understand ‘why’ before acting/deciding, which you made earlier. So true…often the real reasons may be incomprehensible to us & yet we want (any)reasons to reduce our uncertainty… CNBC will provide all kinds of them, for instance, and who cares whether they’re real or not…make us feel better to “know” them.. they’re like pacifiers 4 babies …otherwise we have to just accept dealing with uncertainty & have to take leaps of faith..and that’s really tough to do, isn’t it.
Enjoy the fed deay everyone!
Hey Scotty
Did u buy all those top calls at Cosco ?
How many does a guy get ? But hey if it breaks down like Tony and others have talked about in this area today ..nice call
I’ve had 1503-1508 for a while now and today is Jupiter Direct……K M A
Thanks for the reply and #’s playa !
Get some !
Lee,
KMA????
AKA, Erka???
T2T
Hey Tom,
No way !
It’s Scotty.. he has a blog of his own and has been around here a while but got fed up with some posters and went off radar for a while. He’s a good guy
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2270467/Business-Insider-editor-Wall-Street-analyst-reveals-horrors-flying-Cattle-Class-Zurich-New-York.html#ixzz2JTWwYgMU
Henry Blodget must be on a cargo flight out of Hong Kong…AMR doesn’t fly commercial 747…
http://www.planespotters.net/Airline/American-Airlines
http://www.seatguru.com/airlines/American_Airlines/information.php
Everything according to the plan so far, to minute details… amazing!
I just heard on the Bloomberg News that Tony DeMark has submitted application for OEW course with Tony starting next week.
Is that true Tony?
hahaha … not!
Oh, then it must be next week… I know the moment is coming!
My real drooling dream is seeing Tom DeMark, Erka and theYenGuy all at once in class with Tony.. “OK, kids, starting with lesson #1″ ..
I LOVE IT!!!! Bird, that’s too funny! Way to go! HAHAHAHAHA!
Melinda
M
They will never understand or get past lesson five.
T2T
Red Dragon Leo to keep heads calm ,lol.
Red pill sites…
Too much micro movement for me. I’m just going to sit it out until the 1520-23 (+/-7pts) takes hold. Otherwise, just makes me dizzy.
M
M- keep a core position…they are pumping some volume into ROSG today !
well all the 9:30 am bandits who say its been easy are long now by price and time day trading…U guys are sooo spoiled this month. Blame RC for my motor mouth he asked me a question
Ill wait for a nother
lock it up!
keep the motor runninn… head out on the highwaaaay
only thing needed is bread ,water, a free thought, and the absence of a boss that whips us ever morning…
CL
Tested a scene of the crime area from 9/19/12 this am.. @ 98.25 98.24 being todays high
They’re plenty of cooks in the markets today… I’m going to try and get a meal.
PP 1500.50
r1 1510
r2 1515
r3 1529.50
s1 1495.50
s2 (how are you ?) 1486
s3 1471.50
Get some !
All cooks are talking and none are listening.
There are a few Iron Chefs here…
Hey R C
RE: Top Step Vid
I’m never sure what Danny is talking about haha A bud sent me the vid and said look it’s Brian and Robert on the top step
I dont follow em. We certainly werent on a 10 day winning streak heading into OCT 19th 1987. But Danny (his badge was DBOY back in the day) was a very busy guy during the crash as he ran the desk that did Soro’s and Bacons biz among others.
BTW they just stopped out some short averaging traders from last week in the ES above 1505 hence the pull backs
thx for the color! you da man
after a negative GDP print driven considerably by lack of defense spending, i wonder if the market will start to care more about sequestration
rc, mkts prob ably will care, even though ~125-150 billion per year for 10 years is just a drop in the bucket. You know how those guys love to fight. I think Harry reid has lost his mind, if he ever had one.
M
BIg GDP miss (-.1 vs +1% expectation). This should be enough to kick off a meaningful pullback from near these levels. Possibly a bit more on the upside first but that wave 4 – 1470-80 range likely coming to a theatre near your very soon now…
Maybe even HDs 1440 could be seen over the next few weeks…buy the dip however would be the mandate if/when we get down there I would think.
tboys, if we see pullback today it’s because we hear negative news from Fed. Looks like metals expecting more stimulus. IMO, I don’t think Fed will increase amt of stimulus; Bernanke knew this number was coming. Metalsbugs likely to be disappointed. (Yep, gold falling back a tad now already.) That might actually be the negative news for mkts. in general. Going to be interesting, either way.
M
Certainly don’t expect any additional stimulus. If anything they’d pull it back – but that ain’t likely after the GDP number. Don’t expect anything meaningful from Fed one way or another. We’ll know shortly…
tboys, I agree. No changes.
M
Tony,
Interesting pattern of irregular flats in the current SPX uptrend…Minor 2, Minute iv and Micro 2. Maybe Nano iv is next.
I’m wondering about the pending Minor 4 correction. Would it be a valid wave count for a deep correction to the 1440 pivot such that Minute b under Minor 2 is violated, but with no overlap of the Minor 2 top at 1424?
HD thinks it’s possible.
Think a retest of the 1471/75 breakout should be enough
So the b-wave overlap does not negate the validity of that potential count?
no
photo/1
Be safe !
Overhead for the past hour … no hail all good
Thats what Im talking about ! Ok Tony have a good night see yas minyana @ noonish
A tribute to a woman, and bou arent we losr withou them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0MiQzAo6Cp8
we’re keeping our fingers crossed for you, Tore.
Can never be too sweet. Tulip mania, sugar mania whatever, bring them on…
It should be, boy arent we lost without them.
Please excuse me for posting here and not at the top of your list, I didn’t see anywhere to make a new post. Tony, your calls have been as good as Trending Waves all of 2012, and so far for 2013. My question is specific to your Tues update: You mention a test to SPX 1523 and then a fall greater than Dec 2012, and you spoke in days, so how many days apx till you see a correction?, and what is a reasonable level to correct to by Feb options expiration. I ask so specifically, because I am tracking the VIX into Feb opex.
Hi Vinnie
The 1523 pivot range +/- 7 points.
With tomorrow a potentially volatile day.
All the waves could unfold in one day.
Support would then be SPX 1471-81.
Which would likely be tested before FEB opex.
Have to see how it unfolds first.
I think The Fed Minutes come out at 1:15CT? Then, usually Bernanke speaks at 2:30. Someone on another site told me sometimes, if the announcement is considered ‘important’ to markets somehow, there will be a trend-countertrend-trend move, all within the time between announcement & Bernanke speak. Will have to watch for this tomorrow.
Please correct me if I have the times are incorrect.
M
So kudos to you bulls holding strong at 1500. Admittedly I have been bearish through 1499 pivot but if you think this BS 1 sided trading is gonna hold me back after 10 straight days of green you r outta your mind. Closing the blinds. Meth and paint chips loaded!
See ya’s at the 1440 pivot! and that’s a fact jack!
Think nikkei is on the go after a brief zig-zag… C leg up to 13 000, Should take 3 months. Then its May 1st…
FED continuous infusion.
Steep drop HD, but tomorrow, pre/post FOMC, could be your time
Please excuse me for posting here and not at the top of your list, I didn’t see anywhere to make a new post. Tony, your calls have been as good as Trending Waves all of 2012, and so far for 2013. My question is specific to your Tues update: You mention a test to SPX 1523 and then a fall greater than Dec 2012, and you spoke in days, so how many days apx till you see a correction?, and what is a reasonable level to correct to by Feb options expiration. I ask so specifically, because I am tracking the VIX into Feb opex.
I think I saw some tumble weed pass ya Danny.. Shout out to Robert and Brian !! Standing in the back ground directly behind DBOY (Danny) They are one of the 4 ? filling brokers left in the pit .
Well u heard it… nothing but rainbows and puppy dogs
Good to see optimists on WS,and this time around it could be for real. Did the Mayans bring us over the last fence ? M and A should start furoushing, heck train is passing big pharma fast…
Or maybe its Ms presenc that do the magi, sleep well.
LeeLee , U could be doing that too…would be lots of fun
Can’t help but notice that Sir Anthony from Holt, MI has his EDT (minimum
target @1074.77 wow wonder what Ben is gonna have to say to trigger that..
Hey C B
If I could do it in my pajamas I would consider it
People like being told why all the time when sometimes it’s just because.
LOL! now, that’s an excellent idea, Lee
) I believe U once said you could do it in ur sleep, so PJs sound fine… here’s a little prpmo suggestion for ur show producer…” Leelee64 -the official mascot of the CME – directly from his masterbedroom -sexy and he knows it” – for a VERY limited audience & by subscription only
ooops…promo suggestion, that is… yes, my typing is gna get much better after Jupiter turns direct..
hey Lee, i’m confused by DBOY’s comment that the “last time this happened was the ’87 crash”, in reference to up 10 days in a row. looking at the charts – is he referring to the 11 up days in June of ’87? i don’t see any others that are that long heading into October. just curious. thx bud
Hey HD, I just noticed your avatar!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-29/tanker-glut-worsening-as-opec-cuts-most-since-recession-freight.html
Funny article to present when rates have been going up since Dec. Doing EW count on STO (tracks WTI), I see 5 complete waves and a possible huge gap up, to close most of the recession decline !
And tank should follow initially, as hoarding will prevail.
…and STO is better than USO for long tern hold as USO is eaten up ! As long as STO doesnt repeat the BP accident.
That STO gap could take some time to complete.
tuesday short term indicators/systems:
eliott PSTT: remains on buy signal.
qqq indicator: +8, up from +7, remains on buy signal.
smart money indicator: remains on -9, sell.
2faced longs 0.65% loss today.
2faced shorts: 1.45% profit today.
spy + 0.39%
heaven and hell long term crash indicator: remains at +6 , no crash in sight.
Thanks SP.
Tony, what’s the smallest time frame you get down to, when your doing your analysis?
Watch the one minute charts.
Hi Tony,
Are you concerned that the $NDX (qqq) is not following the same pattern. its lagging behind.
EEID,
It’s telling us there is a correction right around the corner: next few weeks?
Seeing some weakness in foreign markets too.
Cyclicals have been running while growth has remained flat.
Eventually the tide will turn for the cyclicals.
Tony,so we should see a small pullback tomorrow 1503-1505,micro 4
Pooch,
We may see it all tomorrow
Nano 3 will subdivide into Pico 1, Pico 2 …
smallest division so far, during the whole uptrend, has been nano waves.
I was only joking yesterday about pico waves….if we get down to “femto” waves I will need and electron microscope to look at my charts
can I borrow yours?
Femto 3 will subdivide into Atto 1, Atto 2 …
I guess the coming pullback (1st week of Feb) should point to the mid bollinger band i.e. 1477 points on SPX…
1471/75-1481? right in your price target