monday update

SHORT TERM: consolidation day, DOW -14

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.2%. Europe opened higher but ended the day mixed. US index futures were mixed overnight as well, and at 8:30 Durable goods orders were reported higher: +4.6% vs +0.8%. The market opened unchanged at SPX 1503 and then began to pullback. At 10:00 Pending home sales were reported lower: -4.3% vs +1.7%. The pullback continued until 10:30 when the SPX hit 1496. After that the market rallied back to SPX 1503 by 12:00, pulled back to 1499 by 1:30, and then tried to rally again. At 2:00 the FED: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20130128a.htm. At 3:00 the SPX again hit 1503, then pulled back to close at 1500.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.20%. Bonds lost 5 ticks, Crude gained 60 cents, Gold slipped $4, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the OEW 1499 and 1440 pivots, with resistance at the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Tomorrow: the FED starts its two day FOMC meeting, and we have Case-Shiller at 9:00 followed by Consumer confidence at 10:00.

The market opened unchanged today at SPX 1503. It pulled back to SPX 1496 by 10:30, then spent the rest of the day in that trading range. While the action was choppy we do see a potential pattern. From thursday’s SPX 1491 Minute wave iv low, we can count a Micro 1 to 1502 on friday, then an irregular Micro 2 into today’s 1496 low. Micro wave 3 of Minute v should be currently underway from this low. Should the market drop below SPX 1496, then all of the price activity from the orthodox SPX 1495 Minute iii high, could be a Minute iv triangle which should end on a retest around 1490. Tomorrow will likely determine which is the working count.

Short term support remains at the 1499 pivot and SPX 1471/75, with resistance at the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Short term momentum hovered around neutral for most of the day. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the swing level now around SPX 1490. Best to your trading this FED week.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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108 Responses to monday update

  1. torehund says:

    TAN-Solar ETF, completed 2 waves from bottom ? Big 3rd on its way ?

  2. torehund says:

    M-are you ready for a retest of 74 sugar high !

    • mokiepon says:

      No, I don’t have a position on sugar. Not going to India for it.

      M

      • torehund says:

        M- still only exposed indirectly through bulk/ tank and ethanol. But If something pops (like CYCC) and sugar is still cheap, I may have to get access to the Bombay market.

      • mokiepon says:

        I have CYCC and it’s popped a lot lately. How are you playing ethanol? PEIX not for sale, so what are you doing?

        Best to you in your quest for the great sugar high!

        M

    • mokiepon says:

      Hope your sugar high is a great trip and lasts a long time, torehund. Wish I could take it with you, but can’t do it this round. Ah well, there will be others.
      M

      • jamhas26 says:

        Hi, I don’t understand why you both don’t trade the sugar futures directly?

      • mokiepon says:

        Jam, you got the address, I’ll surely go take a look at it. Much thanks!
        M

      • jamhas26 says:

        Hi mokie,
        Well I reside in Australia and trade through a CFD provider called IG Markets. On this platform you can trade futures any of the metals, energies or commodities. However on just about every other platform I’ve used (GFT, Plus500, HYMarkets, etc) this is the case too. Are you not able to do this in the US?

      • torehund says:

        M-I have learned that the less I do the better it gets, running for short patterns on small-caps, one is oftenmost whipped out by the boots. So I will mostly just sit on my shares until May. If I get 4-5 baggers inbetween, I will grab them.

  3. conannca says:

    Hi Tony
    Just checking in and noticed you slapped a green 4 and -38% on Apple chart. I assume you are calling a high probability of bottom of C of 4 after gap close at $425 area? If so, then wave 5 has started and according to your chart we would be heading to all time new highs at end of 2013 ie: your fib targets of $700/710, $815/825, $890/900?
    Thanks Tony for your reply

  4. bolderbob says:

    Hi Tony,
    Thanks again for your wonderful blog!
    AMZN still looks like it has upside work to do to me. It has been selling off before earnings. Where are we in the pattern from your perspective?

    Thanks!

  5. rc1269 says:

    9.92pts LOD->HOD. good enough for governbot work

  6. leelee64 says:

    See ya’s at the pivot. I’m going surfing on Lake Michigan !

  7. H D says:

    is that a 10 point rally in SPX? some dumb $ hitting 1503’s

  8. pbnj123 says:

    Tony
    Good afternoon sir
    Quick question for you – is it possible this could extend beyond the 1523 pivot?
    I know markets can do whatever they want but I was just wondering about the potential for
    even higher prices from here past the 1523 pivot for this 3 of 3 of 3 of (oh whose counting ;-) ).
    Thank you
    Cheers

    • torehund says:

      Was that a double 5, ending major wave 5 for PCYC ?

      • torehund says:

        Or is the whole rice from 57c to top just an abc retrace of a large 5 ending at 57c—–interesting that the retrace took half the time of the fall from year 2000.

  9. leelee64 says:

    Just in case anyone cart ES pivots
    PP @ 1496 S1 @ 1492
    R1@ 1501 S2 @ 1487
    R2@ 1505
    R3 @ 1513.50

    Tight like a tiger

  10. leelee64 says:

    Whats new guys ?

    • ronini3 says:

      APOL is a dud. I

    • rc1269 says:

      nada much here. all the trades are starting to feel too easy now. which makes me a little concerned. don’t like it when everybody starts thinking the same thing.
      credit bears long since threw in the towel. feeling like we’ve probably got a clear runway until the market decides to start caring that sequestration is a non-negligible event. prob a couple-few more weeks for that though.
      otherwise, it’s quiet and everybody seems bored already

      • torehund says:

        Sentiment shifts by the pace of a supertanker. What we have in the world is a notion ” something have got to change”, like in Japan where the public elected a nuke friendly government. And the elected will reflect the publics unspoken demand for cheap nuclear fuel. No one had to loose their face, nuclear just reappear….

  11. rc1269 says:

    coming back to 1503 – 4th times the charm?

  12. torehund says:

    Lots of organized bashing fron google finance as they select info for each share. So they remove from history the godd news and duplicate the bad ones….Look at ROSG, looks like shelf offerings is the sole reported activity for the last year….Robots AND printed press manipulation.

    • mokiepon says:

      torehund, so what is your conclusion of reports from google (or yahoo) finances’ affect on ROSG?

      M

      • torehund says:

        When looking to buy as a newbee all you see is shelfs, shelfs, shelfs, (bio investors hate shelfs for good reasons). Even knowing the achievements of ROSG, I find the info repulsive and ridiculing.
        ARWR, news on GF is even worse.

      • torehund says:

        With ARWR hedgies feast in not needed shelfs as they cann buy millions of shares without driving the pps upwards.

      • mokiepon says:

        Oh dear, this is not good. Are you going to continue to hold rosg?

        M

      • torehund says:

        Yes, Melinda I tell if I sell shares I have told I am holding, ROSG holds the future of diagnostics in Cancer. 30 or so mill in mcap is severely undervalued as 500 000 annual cancer victims may benefit.

      • mokiepon says:

        Okay. I can’t tell by your writing what your tone is. It’s not like hearing someone’s voice.
        Have a great evening.
        M

    • torehund says:

      Could actually be a double abc down from 4,8 on ROSG…no wonder the decline inflicted some emtional heat in me.

  13. mokiepon says:

    First i hear reports that investors are rolling out of bonds and into stocks, then I hear they are not. Does anyone know if there Is a site I can monitor to find out when such a thing occurs?

    Melinda

  14. thebbliss says:

    Nice update Tony, and thanks for the sub-wave analysis. Although I can’t visualize the triangle yet, I will stay tuned to see how the pattern evolves.

    Regards,
    Bill C

  15. scorp100 says:

    Hi Tony, you marked tentative wave 4 for AAPL. Does this bounce have any different characteristics than earlier bounces therefore indicating beginning of wave 5?

  16. blubrd67 says:

    Did you know there was Fibonacci music festival?
    You are allowed to be amazed

    • blubrd67 says:

      Sorry, didn’t mean to post that video, although it’s fine, but this I think better presents Fibonacci

    • mokiepon says:

      bird, did you know that J.S. Bach was the first composer to use fib ratios in music? He was the first to introduce 5th’s and 3rd’s, etc., making the melodies more appealing to the ear. The difference in Music before and after Bach is astounding.

      Melinda

      • tony caldaro says:

        M-
        Bach tapped into intelligent infinity.

      • mokiepon says:

        Tony, Bach most likely had one of the most brilliant minds in human history.

        M

      • blubrd67 says:

        I know he introduced a lot of new elements into music, and I always regarded him as pinnacle of music, but I didn’t know he was aware of fiboncacci ratios. Did he know about Fibonacci, and intentionally applied it to music, or did he just “stumble” into it by pure genius?

      • leelee64 says:

        Tritones .. Bach you little “Devil”

      • CB says:

        awesome music stuff, you guys& gals!…maybe Fibs are encoded in our genes?.they ‘re part of nature, after all..Lee, I’ve just listened to a basic lesson on the ‘devil’s chord, which I had never heard of …hmm, those discordant sounds sure sure seem like the most interesting part of any music..Lee, as our leading musical expert, could U pls. post something that has a lot of tritones in it when U have a little time, so we can get a better idea of what that sounds like…do I need to google: scary movie music or Roman Polanski’s movies maybe to get to that. stuff? : ) thanks!!

      • leelee64 says:

        Hey C B
        Just a few

        and my fav

      • CB says:

        hey Lee, thanks! Really interesting how that works. You have so much music experience that you can easily point 2 various things & label them in musical parlance 4 us , where an average listener like me can only say: gee, that’s an intriguing sound, but I have no idea how they did it. Would of never detected that in the 1st piece. The 2nd one is really ‘dark,’ & it’s amazing what those guys used to do with their voices. I heard some of their songs in my teens , but only because my brother liked it (guys’ stuff I guess). B Sabbath was quite an icon that represents the ‘darker” 60s, wasn’t it?..and I see that they formed their band right around the Altamonte festival when life, politics & social mood in gen. was getting really dark. So a great piece, Lee, to listen to & ponder some things ! Quite amazing how ppl write music like that cuz how do you work with notes like that. Yet, our brain responds to those sounds quite strongly-we must have a chaotic part to us that really likes it & great musicians seem to just effortlessly make order out of chaos & can tap into that part of our brain. It strikes me sometimes how good it is 2 listen 2 some seemingly chaotic stuff & how well it really flows inside my head… like it’s got lots of harmony..like this dude, for instance, ( Must be full of tritones ;) (?) http://www.youtube.com/watch v=9I_wgjfnkpg&playnext=1&list=PL2CF95D3A20F325C4&feature=results_main
        Yeah, weird can be really good. :) Thanks Lee!!

      • CB says:

        sorry , i’m gonna try one more time https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9I_wgjfnkpg

      • mokiepon says:

        CB said: “…maybe Fibs are encoded in our genes?.they ‘re part of nature, after all..”
        I think CB has given the answer. Fractals are absolutely part of all things on this planet (possibly universal). Don’t know how Bach ‘discovered’ it, but it was present in his music since childhood.

        M

      • mokiepon says:

        And my fav BS song:

        M

      • CB says:

        :)
        that guitar when Ozzy starts singing kept sounding familiar so I started looking for it…finally I found it…wonder who came up with first with that sound : BS or Clapton.. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJyQpAiMXkg

  17. budfox9450 says:

    XLE – looking a bit toppy Tony…Trickey Shanghai Index, right….

  18. torehund says:

    In 2 foreign smallcaps (beaten down for years), an interesting phenomenon today. Just around 5 percent decline, and then a massive decline to the bittom of the RSI-chart..The volume was negligible. I see this as an immense strength to emerge soon…..

    • torehund says:

      The microwaves seems like internal market corrections, then they end in large gap ups, when 5 flattish upward tilting waves are completed, little like the flash-cash, just upside down….
      Concerning shipping, Fredriksen has lived throug many boom and bust cycles and at this very moment plans biggishly..A couple of years ago he uttered a rate collapse was imminent, and he was spot on..his Frontline declined to 3 usd. Combining his assumptions plus EW count and 2 pos div for the last month odds of a turnaround are good.

  19. bman64 says:

    Hi all, still expecting 1-2 days of consolidation (micro waves) before breakout, but not sure which direction, probably favor upside. I hope we don’t get into pico waves Tony :)

  20. andysingal says:

    Tony, do you expect a pullback once we hit 1520-1525 to 1480, thanks

  21. CB says:

    thanks Tony! Would be a great place to stall right here. NN below 1498 rsi-wise, Bernanke-wise..all kinds of reasons… hey market, do you even care about “reasons” ? ;)

    • leelee64 says:


      :) C B

      • CB says:

        Hey, Lee :) great to hear from you!! – we were getting ready to report a (very important) missing person, so I am real happy that ur back.. u having a good time with this slow market?
        “Oooh, reasons -lol.. Nice song Lee!…Never heard this one from them ..isn’t love grand? If I was allowed to say meow here, I’d say meow :))

  22. radrian6 says:

    Tony,
    Interesting timing with the FOMC announcement on Wednesday — could be our inflection point for Minor 3.

    If we are currently in the Minute 4 triangle, do you still expect Minor 3 to reach the 1523 pivot or is it likely to finish below that area?

  23. torehund says:

    Nice chart Ronini.
    Looking at SP 500 vs Rut, the former has outperformed by 2 percent the last eyar. Now, for the last few weeks Rut is cathing up on the SP 500. But we are very far from any exuberant optimism at this stage, thats for certain. its only a beginning-

  24. ronini3 says:

    if it crosses over, you will see a firework with a very high probability.

    http://www.flickr.com/photos/69752877@N08/8425294930/sizes/l/in/photostream/

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