SHORT TERM: marginal new high, DOW +71
Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.2%: mostly Japan. Europe opened lower but gained 0.8%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened higher at SPX 1499. The SPX had closed at 1495 yesterday. After a brief rally to SPX 1502, the uptrend high, by 10:00, the market started to pullback. Also at 10:00 New home sales were reported lower: 369K vs 377K. The pullback continued until about 10:30 when the SPX hit 1496. Then it tried to rally again. Around 2:30 the SPX hit a new uptrend high at 1503. Then a pullback to SPX 1499 in the final hour of trading was followed with a bounce to the uptrend here, where the market closed.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.50%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.55%. Bonds lost 25 ticks, Crude added 10 cents, Gold lost $8, and the USD was lower. Medium term support jumps to the OEW 1499 and 1440 pivots, with resistance at the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Last night the FED reported a new high in the Monetary base: $2.762 tln vs $2.711 tln. Today the WLEI was reported higher as well: 57.1% vs 56.1%.
The market opened higher today, continuing yesterday’s late afternoon rally. After retouching the uptrend high at SPX 1502 it then pulled back to 1496. We then labeled a ’tentative’ green Minute wave iv low at yesterday’s SPX 1491 low. For the rest of the day the market worked its way higher to a new uptrend high. At that point we updated that label to its appropriate dark green. Yesterday’s 11 point pullback, SPX 1502-1491, was over 10 points and apparently enough to satisfy a Minute wave iv low. Currently it looks like Minute wave v is underway with: Micro 1 ending SPX 1502, Micro 2 ending at SPX 1496, and Micro 3 underway. When Minute wave v concludes, probably within the OEW 1523 range, it will also conclude Minor wave 3. Then a more substantial Minor wave 4 pullback should follow.
Short term support jumps to the 1499 pivot and SPX 1471/75, with resistance the 1523 and 1552 pivots. Short term momentum is rising again, and slightly overbought. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the swing level now around SPX 1487. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend new high
LONG TERM: bull market