SHORT TERM: US markets closed for ML King holiday, DM (DOW) +26
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.4%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.6%. US index futures bounced around overnight between positive/negative. When the futures market closed the ES (SPX) was +4.50, and the NQ (NDX) was +9.25. Bonds lost 7 ticks, Crude slipped 35 cents, Gold added $4, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Tomorrow: Existing home sales at 10:00.
Over the weekend we analyzed the current bull market, paying particular attention to the price and time wave relations since March 2009. As we have have been noting in the weekend reports we still envision the potential for at least three more uptrends, after this uptrend concludes. With this in mind we attempted to project the rest of the bull market in time and price. Without getting into specifics, since this is just a guesstimate, we can see a potential for SPX 1700 and DOW 16,000 by Q4 2013. After that, should this Cycle wave [1] bull market end there, we see the potential for a 45%+ drop in market value into Q4 of 2014 for Cycle wave [2]. Please keep in mind this is only a rough guesstimate. As the rest of the bull market waves unfold we will get a better idea of the potential high. The bear market to follow, however, is what what we have been expecting for quite some time, should our long term count be correct.
Short term support is at SPX 1471/75 and 1462/64, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Short term momentum displays a building negative divergence at friday’s close. The short term OEW charts remain positive from SPX 1420 with the swing level now around SPX 1471. Enjoy your holiday.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
Market may look exhausted, but when lots of shares align for a concerted move its more like silent before the storm.
Its that time again
GOOG to the moon
It’s offical for Demark now. 1492+. I can hardly wait to read Tony’s Update.
Bot another 1/2 pos. uvxy 10.89.
M
Just read article saying exit polls in Israel show Netanyahu and his Likud Party the likely winners of elections, though by a smaller margin than last time. Still enough to form coalition govt.
M
I think spx is running out of oxygen for now. I’ve never seen such complacency or lack of fear. Professionals running out of funds until end of month I’ll betcha.
M
Then again, maybe not. If we make 1492 or within Tony’s 0.50 of it, I will pick up another half position in uvxy.
M
M
Sounds like a case of Pivot Fever
Might as well give it a try. If no good, I’l drop it in the morning.
M
GL guys…should I say gals now also ?
Doesn’t bother me. If yo deceide to call everyone “gals”, you could get some interesting responses from guys.
M
haa..Lee you don’t really expect anyone to tell you what to do, do you? Do it your way…surprise us.
I’m reptilian
You better climb onto a sunny rock in the Tucson desert.
T2T
brrr, that’s cold HD. can we get something more warm and fuzzy maybe.
Lee, hope ur creativity is going into overdrive now…you’ve got all kinds of species here now.
I’m white trash
Lee, c’mon why would you say something like that…call your Mom OK? or we’ll have to put you in therapy
)
http://stocktwits.com/message/11600423
maybe the day after tomorrow, or the day after that , and that’s a big maybe
Tom DeMark, founder of Market Studies and creator of the DeMark Indicators, told Bloomberg TV’s Adam Johnson yesterday that an S&P exhaustion signal is near. He said if the S&P (which is currently at 1,470) breaks above the September high of 1,474.51 and spikes to 1492-1500, it would generate 13 days of exhaustion and an official sell signal for the market.
http://www.distressedvolatility.com/2013/01/tom-demark-official-s-500-sell-signal.html
Hey aktiesnack
Hey you already said that
thx !
You gonna let this slide T2T ?
I’m speechless!
T2T
considering everybody out there heard this and has been talking about it for days, i can’t imagine that it will possibly come true. either we’ll stop here at 1491, or blast right through 1500.
Agree.
M
some good AAPL earnings could really get this 3 of 3 of 3 of 3 going. (okay, not sure what iteration of 3 we’re on, but feels like that’s about right). hah
just imagine, if we can rally 10% *wihtout* AAPL what the market can do if it pops $50-100 points the next few weeks
Could get a nice rally the end of next week. Last of Jan & 1st of Feb. Won’t be like last month, but some money will come in.
M
break even ?
Hey RC 1
sup Lee. doing the dance. feeling the flow. workin it… workin it. all good things
Bot half position uvxy 11.01
M
VIX buying going up in a pretty big way, considering the spx uptrend.
M
Tweaking ROSGs graph, this weak wave pattern is soon ending, last part of flatlining must be a hidden weak ABC. Frontline eventually starting to deliver…
Bought some ASTI, mobile solar gadget that may sell, techs not bad either.
One thing that bothers me here is the Ten YR TSY yield is not participating on the upside.
T2T
neither is credit really. bonds spreads have not participated for a while now. fwiw
Could lack of participation in 10 yr and credit be a sign of Demarks exhaustion? I don’t know or have an opinion, just asking if it’s possible.
M
the beauty of ‘twitter traders’ is you can read about VPOC’s that don’t exist as we haven’t traded here in 5 years. JMHO
haaaaa dude..Enjoy ! It like a car crash u just can’t help but look.. RE Twitter
Both yo guys might want to think about sitting close to a sunny window for a time. I think you’re vit. D3 has dropped to a critical level. I know mine does…
M
YO guys. Yeah, time for me to open the curtains. LOL!
M
Hey M
I’ve got an 180 view with 7 windows and I still get grumpy
Spent 6 hours in sun golfing and 4 hours scouting pigs this weekend. I’m all natural Vit D. It’s the meth and paint chips that hurt.
R1 ESH @ 1485.50
Suns getting warmer in my office… Just a matter of time
On some guys charts they have ESH going over that gap channel from New Years I still have it @ 1468ish now…
what is blowing my mind is I still have fibs ext’s at the gap 1421′s. What am I supposed to think about that?
1488 ish top channel
1467 ish bottom channel I meant to type or say or…
ESH
So much fun it should be illegal…one day it will be ?
H D
How many gaps down would it take to fill that gap down if that gap get’s filled ?
gap on gap crime is unpredictable. How bout them 10 point moves SPX
1,481.16 – 1,491.17
haaaaa nice
10 handles the hard or easy way seems the the way.
Buyers coming into VIX futures now.
M
Hi Tony — thanks for the update. Italy’s starting to look interesting – the new Greece, in the good way, near/at a bottom…
agree
Any ETFs or mutual fund(s) which track these markets?
The EWI has already one up 50%….maybe a pullback before another big run?
Good afternoon Tony
In looking at the SPX weekly – is it right to call that a divergence – or not at this time?
Please advise
Thank you
Cheers
PB,
Third waves usually get a bit stronger than just crossing the overbought line.
Sorry but having trouble understanding that reply
Does that mean it will get stronger as it develops or it should already be stronger than it is displaying. Sorry for the ignorant question but I want to understand the reply correctly.
Thank you sir
Cheers
Should continue to get overbought
Tony, any projections on how much higher crude oil has to go here before it pulls back? Thanks.
Vika,
My worse market for sure.
Should be sellers at around $100
Tom DeMark, founder of Market Studies and creator of the DeMark Indicators, told Bloomberg TV’s Adam Johnson yesterday that an S&P exhaustion signal is near. He said if the S&P (which is currently at 1,470) breaks above the September high of 1,474.51 and spikes to 1492-1500, it would generate 13 days of exhaustion and an official sell signal for the market.
http://bloom.bg/UZszvk
Another tool for my toolbox. Thanks snack.
M
Could get that blow-off top at 1492, as Demark’s looking for. Personally, I think if not 1492, then, the 1499 pivot as Tony has posted.
M
1499 pivot +/- seven points … fits
Thanks Tony. Good to know how much play room is in there.
M
here we goagain , a brief touch of rsi(14) 70 -last time we did this was, yes when spx was 1474 …
with that budget mess just starting againm, is there any reason to go above?
so which stock do we need to follow now for market clues- the hotstuff DDD or the fallen angel AAPL..
last Septmber at 1474ish.., that is..
No one cares about apple no more…interesting
Media and Trader’s survival mechanism kicking in. ‘If I don’t care about it, then, it doesn’t matter what it does…’ Something like that.
M
I downloaded 2 albums this weekend from itunes- does that count?
LOL! Of course is does!
thanks HD, (for letting us know what ur selling (marketwise)…so, what u buying albumwise? -… has Lee released any new tracks recently?
Bought a new I Mac, plus an airport express modem, because ATT is so yesterday’s technology, still using G modems vs N modems that have more band width so everything moves at the speed of light.
Does that count?
T2T
haha…ATT ..this song is for you
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUN3IZOXUcY&feature=youtube_gdata
Yes H D it does !
T2T
U betcha ! Ur going with the flow…feeling it
Yes, T2T, it does count! LOL!
M
My son went to the Bulls vs Lakers last night. I suggested he go to Gene and Georgetti’s for a big steak and a garbage salad before the game. He texted me back after dinner, “That’s so Old School”. He loved it.
We are almost in the pivot range!
T2T
Anybody want to try to put a count on DDD? Year-to-Year stock increase of just over 300%. I’m not sure how to quite read their chart right now, but I see a 3 of 3 presently? I think the sky is the limit for this stock….
Well, until I buy it
Wiii’s getting weaker and weaker. 1398-1468 wi and a .5 wiii 1451-1486 seeing -D allready. Not sure we have room for more 1-2′s, or even all the 1-2′s we allready have but it ain’t up to me. 3 down and 3 up today so far IMO.
thanks HD. Nice wave GPS you’ve got there.
Hi CB- we got 10 points in the futes. some pay attention to that. cash is 1491′s. I am seller undr pivot. GL.
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/01/21/is-platinum-the-metal-to-watch-in-2013?eNL=50fd6fd5150ba0743d00016a&ref=hp&utm_source=DailyMarketFocus&utm_medium=eNL&utm_campaign=FUT_eNL&_LID=76360954
Going to feed my Picidae’s
CL looks frothy but so does beer.
I’ve been hanging with too many retired people lately and it’s not that bad of a life
S2 ESH @ 1476 microscopic inflection point
Retest overnight low and go ?
Where are those 10 point bots at a low ?
Hey Tony
I was hoping the cold weather might effect them but it looks like they like it
wow, that is so cool..the little guy moves his hips like’ Elvis the Pelvis’
Historically the day after President Obama’s inauguration is a bit bearish..Just a lil bit
thanks Lee! that helps, maybe we can get to Tony’s ST support with Bamas’s Halo Effect’ Help..well, sth like that
Impressive what you said about ur Dad Lee. Good Old School!!
Thanks C B !
My neck still hurts from watching the Luna and it’s buddies last night
haa..sometimes the view is worth freezing ur butt, huh..well la luna is in gemini today, so we want everything ‘RIGHT NOW’ …so we won’t get it (obviously )..I want 1470 right now….so u still playing (basketball) games with ur Dad, Lee ?
Hey C B
Well we used to play HORSE then switched to PIG. He had lower spinal surgery last winter so he’s on the bench. He’s doing great and is saving his energy to get on the tractor this spring to mow/plow/bushhog ..it about killed him not to gangsta roll on his John Deere last year. THX !
hey now, I had to go to Ehow to fully comprehend ur “games.” But now I know what horse & Pig are. ..wow, U two are good!
Hope ur dad recovers nicely, Lee -surgeons can do some amazing things these days. Otherwise, there is a chance he’ll let you drive that tractor, perhaps? (in the driveway only, right?)….so, caution Lee: people may stare.
if I understand this current ST count, this is w. 4, where w. 2 was simple, so this one is complex, so why am I even bothering with this
morn…
lil bit of resist at Fridays high in ESH
Howdy
Poor Marion Il H.S. hasn’t won an Illinois High School Basketball Championship since 1921.
TG
Hey Tommy 2 times u said that already
Johnston City was the real power house back then and is where my Dad went to school.
He can still hit free throws with the underhand style and never takes a shot without using the back board. Old School !
New handle for Tom Green = “Tommy Two Times”
M
anybody use/look @ channels ?
On a 4 hr chart in ESH from start of the New Year looks like 1486 ish is the top line and 1466 ish is the lower. It’s what all the kids are looking @
Just trying to get the # of posts up so we can break thru the 1499 pivot.
LOL !
FYI: Bot uvxy 11.50 on Fri., which I don’t like doing. It’s up over 2% this morning… Think i got lucky. BBL.
M
This turned out to be a good bit of luck. Would it be that they all turned out this well. Usually, I drop this next day on amount that pays for buy & sell, but this is yielding nicely.
M
Selling around 12 – 12.20 probably wouldn’t be bad idea
I think.
That stuff i like a hot coal
bb67, I agree. If it gets to 12. Might have to drop sooner.
M
Aropped uvxy. At least it paid for itself. BBL. Good trading to you all.
M
UVXY is the P3 the wavers were looking for. 400-11$ -It’s never rallied. This product has pressure and will go away similar to TVIX IMO.
HD, that’s why I don’t like to hold it for long. It could hold up if there’s a sizeable pullback or outright correction in Feb. Other than for overnight protection, I don’t like it.
M
She’s a widowmaker but I know some that use it with good success. Best of luck with it.
HD, I don’t think uvxy will go the way of tvix. uvxy splits shares when volatility gets low enough and that accounts for the 481 high and 11 low. tvix didn’t have a habit of splitting, until the one time it did because it issued more shares and didn’t follow proper notification procedures; thus on that day, it just plummeted. Now, big lawsuits pending re: tvix. If uvxy falls under 10, I think it will be split again.
M
It can go from 10-100 in a hurry if they split it
HD, that’s what ProShares does, as opposed to Velocity w/tvix. Velocity also splitting tvix now, but not doing a good job of it; it’s at $5, so getting down there. Legally, they can call it and close it and pay out at current price. ProSh can do it w/uvxy too, but I think they make big money with it.
M
Short version: Velocity Tvix went from being closed-end to open-end and they didn’t announce correctly (except maybe the Big Boys).
M
JMHO Melinda but it’s a rigged game. No shorts allowed so it’s a crash test dummy.
HD, all I can say is that it’s a trading tool and NOT an investment. I’ve gained as much as I’ve lost; calling it even. I consider it protection against downside panic and it’s worked well for that.
M
torehund: Do you still like CYCC here? I’m liking it and need a sm cap pharma that hasn’t moved yet. If you still like it, I’ll buy on this pullback.
M
M
Any pullback from here looks ok with a stop @$4.25
TG
Thanks T2T! LOL!
M
Yes melinda I hold it, and expect it to run in a not to distant future. It has cooled down a bit after a golden crossin when it jumped to 8 usd. I will sell it if it does a multibagger, like 4 x todays price. But dont bet the farm on a single small cap pharma. lol.
CYCC, from Dec 28 to date it looks like a big ABC down, where the last days rise is an upward bend of the end to the large ABC down. Lets see.
torehund, I never bet the farm on any one thing of any kind. I just needed a sm cap pharma to complete my ‘collection’.
M
http://earthsky.org/tonight
)
look up in the sky folks..it’s kinda nice
Thanks Tony,8:30, -5 Degrees in Greenbay Wi.
Tony,sorry if i missed this but after we top in March do you see a 5-10% correction before the bull resumes towards 1600+
or february … yes
Ah ha! I feel much better now about a February possibility, uncertain, of course, but possible. Not to worry, I won’t accuse you of “woman’s” intuition, but do accuse you of a rare sensitivity to changes, waves or not. It’s a great sensitivity to have.
Melinda
when the collective consciousness moves it creates a breeze
Yes, it does. Okay Tony, give it up. Who’d you crib that line from?! It’s great. probably works well on women in general too.
Melinda
Thanks for the Holiday & Weekend Updates Tony! The last time I read a comment of yours concerning gold I think you stated that there was some disagreement within your group about it’s direction. Today Goldman Sachs stated the following:
“Gold may climb over the next three months as U.S. lawmakers attempt to tackle the country’s debt ceiling and the world’s largest economy slows, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said, advising investors to place bets on advances.
“We see current prices as a good entry point to re- establish fresh longs,” analysts Damien Courvalin and Alec Phillips wrote in a Jan. 18 report. The bank reiterated a three- month target of $1,825 an ounce, as well as a forecast for prices to weaken in the second half as the U.S. economy rebounds.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-21/goldman-forecasts-gold-rally-amid-debt-ceiling-confrontation.html
Tony, do you have an opinion on the direction of gold and any price targets for the short-to-medium term? (I did read in the Weekend Update that you stated gold was “trying” to establish an uptrend.)
Thanks!
Heard earlier in the week Goldman was bearish on gold?
Still mixed views in OEW land.
With Crude and PLAT uptrending Gold should join.
After that, and how high – hard to say
Thanks Tony. It’s never easy. And now the weather’s getting a lot colder. (May be good for nat gas.)
commodity bears are a bear
There is something not right with gold, lazy smooth waves and not more than half of the waves are retraced. i think gold is afraid Obama riding two horses, Qe gold likes, but not the topping out of the debth ceiling. Maybe gold will jump temporarily on debth ceiling extension, but RSI meeting resistance at 50 multiple times is a bad omen.
Thanks Tony! Great work as always : )
Thanks Tony ! Just think just 2 1/2 months til u have to run ur a/c in the Heartland
I traveled back north into the artic ….at least it’s sunny
Hey torehund
Good stuff Thank You
10 degrees expected overnight.
It’s just exciting living where the temperature swings 100 degrees in the time it takes the market to create just three waves.
thanks Tony.
)
brrr…poor guys!!…well, I can understand Tony, ur stuck where you are, but Lee, what on earth keeps you in the artctic these days(?)….that’s cruelty against self……You guys are good though…always looking on the bright side…way to go
Lee thanks, and its great to take part in this blog, I swirled around for some time through many sites with emphasis on EW, frustrated, until I ended up here…
If Elliot himself was still alive, I bet he would enjoy it too…
thanks Tore =)
Tony,
Doesn’t a bull market only last about 42 months? From March 2009 to September 2013 was 42 months.
WC,
The recent bull lasted 60 months, and the previous one to that lasted 13 years.
Thanks Tony! So when did the recent 60 month bull market start? I’m confused with with count.
Oct 2002 to Oct 2007.
Thanks Tony! I’m glad you have the guts to put such a long-range general forecast out here so that we all can follow it. Those of us who trade with any success know that forecasts of this type are never completely accurate to the letter, but it gives us all something to watch and learn from. Promises some exciting trading ahead.
forecasts of this type are never completely accurate … exactly, it’s just a roadmap
I thank you for the roadmap. Will have to see what kind of “forks in the road” appear. I think it’s fun, but, I’m easily amused; according to my lady friends who aren’t the least bit interested in stocks/trading. I dare them to try this and call it ‘easy’.
M
Someone just paid off an old debt to me. No kidding, I have in my hand paper money from the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe for Ten Trillion Dollars! I’m not planning on retiring. How much is it worth?
TG
“How much is it worth?”…Answer: Nothing. Except as a conversation piece.
Melinda