SHORT TERM: oversold rally, DOW +60
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.4%. European markets opened lower, but gained 0.2%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 Q3 GDP was reported higher: +3.1% vs +2.7%, and weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 361K vs 343K. The market again opened one point higher, than yesterday’s SPX 1436 close. It then nudged up to SPX 1438 and pulled back to 1433 by 10:00. At 10:00 Existing home sales were reported higher: 5.04 mln vs 4.79 mln, Leading indicators were reported lower: -0.2% vs +0.2%, the Philly FED was reported higher: +8.1 vs -10.7, and FHFA housing prices were reported higher: +0.5% vs +0.2%. The market rallied to SPX 1439 by 10:30, pulled back to 1435 by 11:30, and then rallied again. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1444 and closed there.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.50%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.15%. Bonds lost 1 tick, Crude slipped 10 cents, Gold dropped $20, and the USD was lower. Medium term support for the SPX shifts back to the 1440 and 1386 pivots, with resistance at the 1499 and 1523 pivots. Tomorrow: Personal income/spending, PCE prices and Durable goods orders both at 8:30. Then Consumer sentiment at 10:00 on this Options expiration friday.
The market opened about flat today, pulled back to make a lower low at SPX 1433, then reversed and rallied into the close. If the Minute wave iii of Minor 3 is subdividing, we are likely to see new uptrend highs soon. On the alternate bearish count, we may be forming a rising diagonal triangle, for Intermediate wave C of Major 2, with the touchpoints: 1439-1412-1448-1433-….
Short term support is at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1422/27, with resistance at SPX 1463/64 and 1471/75. Short term momentum rose from quite oversold today to near overbought. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the swing level now around 1431. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull/bear inflection range continues
want to see a vertical stick at the end of this cliff fiasco.
+1
tommyboys, Tony, and everyone, Merry Christmas!
merry christmas Ronini
I3
Talk to Santa then.
he is busy selling cars at a Chevy dealer.
Haaa He sure does
The Reindeer power is awesome, too!
Vertical stick! Happy New Year, everyone! Is1474 cash next? APOL still looks good, hope is still good in 21 days..
Whoa, APOL tops earnings, cut forecast, and got downgraded by MS. It gaps down but still above 18.36 stop.
APOL = Chumbawamba, but the window is closing.
Tony you’ve pointed out to us that nat gas is going to be important in the next few years. Thanks very much for that. Here’s an interesting article with several specific plays in that area if anyone is interested
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/398596-the-energy-report/1391181-byron-king-s-shocking-2013-predictions
thanks CB will review
I am a CPA.
Forgotten in the Fiscal Cliff negotiations or non-negotiating is the fact that the Alternative Minimum Tax “Patch” also expires this year. WIthout confusing most of you this Patch has been put in place to avert most middle income families from paying AMT. Without the patch most families earning in excess of 100k will be have to pay roughly 5-8k in additional Federal Tax. that in itself will drive the economy down when instead of getting a refund a lot of families will have to pay a few thousand dollars to the IRS.
thx BD
No, thank you Tony. Happy Holidays!!!
Since the Republicans can’t even get enough votes on their own tax proposal in the House, there may not be an alternative to the AMT for many.
Tony,
I know it is too earliy but if 1406 won’t hold, will it mean a good probability of a new bear market or just a knee jerk reaction to the fiscal cliff ? Markets are always considered from the phsyshological point of view, could it be just the case now?
Kvilia that would certainly drive the bearish probabilites higher.
Thank you, Tony and Happy Holidays to you, your family, and all the smart and wise people on this blog!
happy holidays Kvilia
Downward 3 targets or SPX DOW NASDAQ
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/12/21/elliott-wave-noon-update-video-12-21-12-downward-3-targets-for-spx-dow-nasdaq-youtube/
I picked a hell of a week to stop sniffing glue
LOL Thanks LX for the laugh!
+1, LOL..that was funny..
Happy weekend guys!
got any left-over glue Lee?… why not put it up for auction…so many folks became unglued this past week..you may get some bids
Lee – check out the film ‘Twin Town’ set in Wales. Amusing…..
My dog is acting very normal today. In fact he’s quite happy. Going for an airplane ride shortly.
Lee are the birds at the feeder?
If so, all is normal.
TG
Birds are at the feeders ..
Have a great flight Aqua !
Going to Chicago.
Home on the range.
LaSalle St. The epicenter of the “fourth density”
TG
Welcome to fourth density
Thank You
I feel more dense today
that takes a lifetime
hahaha
I think this Tool video illustrates how the human mind is tuned into these fib sequences….maybe ESPECIALLY in music as we – as humans – really gel with rhythm and percussion. Almost feels as though its one with us sometimes. Possibly our creator is highly rhythmic… No way Tool designed the music to fit the fib sequence., this just happens because it’s ingrained in us (IMO). Merry Christmas all…
probably
Hi guys. Nice video, Tony. min 7:13 is a bit of a shocker “to know the rules but break them” Kinda workes in many areas of life, except in the military branch and in trading, huh?
The author probably meant … bend them
=) an important distinction, isn’t it..otherwise some 16yr kids going to their concerts might think they can just start breaking everything…all depends on the audience..Tony, slightly higher levels ahead regardless whether the waves are bullish or bearish, right?..they’ve just slowed us down quite a bit with this raid last night
CB, not sure of that.
The May 2010 flash crash got a big bounce too
thanks Tony!. Nice divergence on ur 60 min charts. Without overthinking too much ..if 1411 low holds it’s still an uptrend…so onto the next level (thank goodness markets can only move in two directions -up or down..
OK, the world has officially ended, so Happy New World everyone!
out with the old, in with the new
Boots or no boots, dont think the machines are very emotional, shouldnt be affected by Mayan semi-nonsense. However blaming a ” hidden worldwide financial catastrophy” on destiny, the Mayans, had to happen e.t.c, could be a way for politicians to eschew harassment/real stocks, and whats worse… if something is just unsolvable. Where is the paintrade ???
Pain trade has been ‘long’ for three years !
as for triangls, I`v posted 2 alt views
http://postimage.org/image/7lkhc814b/
http://postimage.org/image/ext8q503d/
Thanks, Tony.
Are you still 60 % bullish, 40% bearish ?
yes, but tomorrow is another day
Hi Tony
Question: If the support levels of 1,417 and final support of 1,406 are violated in the AFTER HOURS, does that count and the bear case is now in play?
THanks
no
Pivots and fibs
We get the Government we vote for
Lee, please tell us you had orders to cover ur shorts where those stops were -then we’ll have something to celebrate, otherwise this is just too depressing
although the futures/ 60 min/ actually have a +div on 60 min now for the first time..
Hey C B
We were limit down at the low tonight traded 1391.25 ESH
I did ok
Watch GC 1636.50 ** also
nice Lee,wow, we’re proud of you! -you were in it while a lot of people can only yap about it, so the audience is very impressed with you : ) …looks like they did a lot of volume taking out those1393ish stops…so I’d like to think they’re done with that level, but it’s probably just wishful thinking(?) I’m sure you’ll have fun trading this market overnight. GL Lee!
Hey C B
I’d say the guys who are in cash or hedged (as tony suggested a few days ago in his update )are the one’s we should be proud of
This is silly time
agree, good advice Tony & I am sure lots of folks are grateful for it! Lee, both you and Tony have seen it all in the markets, so you guys are ready for any eventuality..so, you’ve got our undivided attention, always
…Lesson learned here is, I guess: always have orders at some deep levels..you never know, sometimes the market gives you a nice gift.
These politicians are just hopeless!!!!!!!
but they continue to get their paychecks!
What do you think Tony, futures down 1,5 percent and on future recordings maybe double of this. Could it be a bear trap ?
Tony if this massive futures drop to 1406 is a B wave, C could take us above 1500 on SP.
Flash crashes overnight can not be blamed on ‘fat’ fingers.
Under the bear scenario we hve been in C since 1398
And if the larger ABC ends at 1500, an ABCDE should take us to 1520-1540 area your prognosis ?
There is a Major Bradley Turn Indicator tomorrow (+/- days in either direction) and there is often volatility around such turns.
I am expecting a 3rd Party to evolve, for 2016….
On that is financially conservative.
I’ll be short, for Christmas, and not just in my dreams ….
kudos
Thanks Tony. Majority Leader Cantor says no vote on Plan “B” this week. Futures down 13 just a minute ago.
Down 35 for a second there.
Tony,what are chances we hit 1490 -1500 last week of year with any positive rehtoric on F.C. and Santa Rally
Heard a resolution may be sold.
Thanks Tony,you rock
Not a Bear fan are you,got a Cheese head on my head
Tony, do you think this rally has been impulsive? Apart from financials there is not much that is rallying. Thanks for the blog and Happy holidays.
Thus far it remains impulsive.
But this last pullback, unless an extension, creates some concern.
happy holidays!
Tony are you looking to nibble on Gold again soon?
Should be fun trying to catch the bottom.
Logically it ought to happen on the last trading day of the year, once the Fiscal Cliff deal is settled. Unless traders try to position themselves ahead of that. (I imagine there’ll be a deal at the very last moment.)
Weekly MACD is still 9.9 on your chart, and I’m expecting it to fall to zero to balance the left shoulder. Do you think that’s a good method of identifying the bottom?
Hi Alex
Sure it is not easy picking the bottim. Here is a nice article. Aden sisters think we might test May lows if 1640 is taken out.
http://www.safehaven.com/article/28142/gold-re-accumulation-is-health
Happy holidays
S
Alex we bought some on tuesday’s selloff, and unloaded it on wednesday.
Thought it should have more than just $10+.
Will wait until the smoke clears.
Thanks Tony, and Scatman.
Today’s low was 1636, so 1640 has already fallen.
I’m not sure it can fall all the way to the May low, but 1500s definitely possible.
Is there perhaps a Fib cluster that would give a clue?
I agree that the Mayan calender count IS nonsense, but why from 2009 bottom is there ABCDE in two dimensions. First on grand scale, then from Sept last year. In fact the only flaw in the first grand scale ABC is due to the 5 th wave failure at en of July 2011. This symmetry strikes me as not happening by incident whichever way the market turns. Is it the boots that are preprogrammed for this date ?
AND are the boots = FED ?
We’re entering the fourth dimension now =)
Then FED is the third one I guess. LOL.
Thanks Tony for your persistently awesome blog throughout the year and actually many years. Your help and teachings are just incredible. Here’s to many more years!!!
happy holidays Vorfahrt