wednesday update

SHORT TERM: market pullsback, DOW -99

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.2%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Housing starts were reported lower: 861K vs 894K , while Building permits were reported higher: 899K vs 866K. The market opened one point higher than yesterday’s SPX 1447 close, then began to pullback. At 10:00 the FED released this: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20121219a.htm. The pullback continued until 10:30 when the SPX hit 1442, and then it tried to rally. Around 11:00 the SPX hit 1446, stayed in a narrow range until 1:00, and then started to pullback further. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1436 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.75%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.35%. Bonds gained 5 ticks, Crude rallied $1.40, Gold  slipped $4, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops back to the OEW 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Tomorrow: Q3 GDP, (est. +2.7%), and weekly Jobless claims at 8:30. Then at 10:00 Existing home sales, the Philly FED, Leading indicators and the FHFA housing index.

Today’s pullback, from an extremly overbought condition, was to be expected. Yet the amount of the decline, 12 points, was more than expected. We had noted yesterday, we expected a higher high before such a pullback. As a result of today’s pullback there are two to three potential outcomes.

First, Minute wave iii of Minor 3 could be subdividing. This would suggest a fairly good rally should be underway shortly. Second, with the SPX hitting the exact middle of the inflection range yesterday/today there are some alternate bearish implications. At SPX 1448 Major C equalled exactly 0.618 Major A, suggesting the alternate C wave count and Major wave 2 may be over. Third, if it is a wave C it still unfolding, with one more rally, to complete occur to end a diagonal triangle. This has certainly been an interesting few weeks.

Short term support is at the SPX 1422/27 and 1413/16, with resistance at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1463/64. Short term momentum declined to oversold today. The short term OEW charts remain positive from SPX 1420 with the swing level now at 1429. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull/bear inflection range continues

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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65 Responses to wednesday update

  1. pooch77 says:

    we are crashing,one of these ass wipes better say someting positive soon,down 300 dow points

  2. LX says:

    “agree with Tommy -this is a-once-in-26,000-years buying opportunity…today into tomorrow..”

    haaaaa nice one C B !
    I felt a chill when I saw the ICE buying NYSE.
    All things shall pass I guess…kinda blows

    • CB says:

      Hey Lee! thanks, yeah, ice….their parties should be OK -they’ll never run out of ice..
      Hey Lee as our Fibonacci Man, you’ve got staying power no matter what happens -Fibs are gonna outlast everything else…go ahead use your Fibo superpowers wisely :))

  3. LX says:

    .618 back rom todays low yes Globex high @ 1439.00 ish

  4. mjtplayer says:

    Gold A=C at $1,625, support at $1,630 and open gap on the GLD at $157.26 (about $1,625 GC); looks like as good a place as any for a low. GC low today is $1,636- pretty close

  5. H D says:

    Hey CB! I do need a scooter guy! haaa. That’s funny :mrgreen:

    • CB says:

      hey you can do it, so you are the ‘designated scooter guy’..
      nice HD! you’ll make the kids real happy – and we’re keeping our fingers crossed for you…nice, it feels like Christmas already

  6. torehund says:

    Now we have 2 ABCDE, one reversed (the biggie) and one from rescent bottom going the correct way. Market aligns perfectly for a devastating 3 rd wave down tomorrow. Anyone that didnt think this mayan event counts should direct the whole Bull/Bear outcome was surely wrong. Market is stupid or ???

    • tommyboys says:

      Wall Street has put ZERO credence in the Mayan thing…completely meaningless. Market not stupid on this – knows the whole thing is absurd. If anything we should rally hard when the world DOESN’T end tomorrow. Mayan calender indicated(s) an end of a period of time and a fresh start on a new one. NEVER meant anything with regard to end of the world. This again just a media spin for fear’s/revenue sake. Mayan’s wouldn’t have had that info as none of us do…ridiculous.

      • CB says:

        agree with Tommy -this is a-once-in-26,000-years buying opportunity…today into tomorrow..

      • tony caldaro says:

        With the NYSE EuroNext now on ICE.
        No telling if the bulls will be put on ICE Next ;)

      • tony caldaro says:

        End of Pisces, the Beginning of Aquarius.
        “I will be with you until the end of the Age.”

      • CB says:

        : ) that’s funny, Tony- there will be 2 exchanges from now on: the Santelli Exch. and the Nice one. (gee I wonder how Lee feels about Santelli taling over the CME)
        I haven’t s read anything about that Aquarius age starting at a specific point – isn’t that a metaphor? One thing that is a fact is the alignmnet of our planet with the center of the galaxy at 27 degrees Sagitarius tomorrow which happens every 26K years. That’s all I’ve got ;)

      • CB says:

        typo: Santelli taking over the CME…

      • LX says:

        Tony
        ditto

      • CB says:

        thanks Tony. what a great song… I think I am OK with the current age – my natal Mercury is in retrograde Aquarius..so, OK, in a quirky sort of way.. ;) Big thanks for everything you do, Tony ! And I’d like to predict a record number of posts tomorrow – everyone saying: “we’re alive, we’re alive.” :grin:

      • tony caldaro says:

        First I heard the world was going to end in 1980.
        Then 1990, then 2000, and now 2012.
        Fear sells =)

      • CB says:

        yes, so true. The only time the world ends is when a kid like that one in CT is so emotionally-deprived that he just explodes ….when parents fail their kids like that, we are all losers , as a society.

      • tony caldaro says:

        A tragic situation.
        This planet survived third density, and it will last many more billions of years.
        It could have ended up like Maldek, which is now the asteroid belt.

  7. blubrd67 says:

    Would selling in gold yesterday and today qualify enough as capitulation selling? 1631 is nof far away.

  8. LX says:

    Feb Gold at Aug breakout scene of crime
    8/22 daily bar H 1648.60 Low 1442.20

  9. kvilia says:

    OT. Not sure if anyone follows Depardieu story but it made me so sick, so I wanted to vent out. Typical example of the quite moderate and community (including folks in need) helping guy being run over by the socialist machine. Blaming someone for your own actions is all they can do considering their contributions are worth a fraction of the one they corner. Reason is quite simple – true socialist face showing intolerance to someone opposing their ideas. Not sure if you will get my hint, so here it is: we’ve got the same problems in our backyard as well. Sigh…

    • torehund says:

      LOL: In Europe its a fight, and if you have got a tad more stuff (liquidity) than your neighbour they hate you for it, and accredit your relative superior success to fraud e.t.c. And its in the masses interest to share what you have acquired exceeding a given median.
      Solution: be average, earn average, and go surfing (make sure nobody knows or see you out in the water).

  10. torehund says:

    Last days decline after a spike up has produced lots of nice divergences, like coiled springs. Lets see.

    • torehund says:

      One issue: Stocks starting a run after pos divergence usually rise steady and gains have better hold as the up and then down movement is a sign there is pessimism e.g fuel for a sustained move as market participants are starting out in grave pessimism and only gradually turn more positive. Little like Japan with 4 pos divergences in their belt, accumulated for one full year.

  11. scorp100 says:

    Tony, next probable stop for Silver and Gold?

  12. rc1269 says:

    Morning, Tony
    nothing like an upward second revision (third reporting) of some three month old data to get the market moving up again! man i wonder what futures would do if we revised upward our 2009 GDP by 1%?! oh the possibilities

  13. wolf7219 says:

    How calculate the swing level, 1429?

  14. midcap folio of 37 stocks was up +0.51% today while its $mdy benchmark was down -0.17%
    large cap folio of large stocks was up +0.36% today while its $spy benchmark was down -.0.74%
    low risk folio was up +0.64% while its $iwm benchmark was down-0.64%, high risk folio was up +0.70% while its $iwm benchmark was down -0.64%.
    high risk _B folio was down -0.19% while its $iwm benchmark was down -0.64%.
    even the tna folio was up +0.57% today.

    summary: all folios performed outstandingly today in light of a down day!

  15. CB says:

    Thanks Tony. Wow, those bots have a penchant for complexity… :) To me it’s still a re-test if the breakout from the falling wedge on the hourly chart…we went to the origination point (target more or less), then tried to break out, then re-tested that point again, and it held so far. if 1434 +/2 points holds, we ‘re doing plan A: awesome ;)

    • CB says:

      plus/minus 2pts..that is..wow, I’ve had an excellent year -made a record number of typos in 2012 =) Funny thing is, supposedly typos make money – they drive more internet traffic to sites..

  16. M1 says:

    Thanks, Tony.

  17. LX says:

    Thanks Tony

    Obliviscaris circa illam

  18. timing101 says:

    Thanks Tony. We are in Micro 2 of Minute iii?

  19. budfox9450 says:

    CAF – and OEW selection, moved to a technical sell signal. Meaning, I have a sell,
    and awaiting confirmation. I feel, a modest decline here, would
    prove to be a very good “investment” via it’s base, which is the Shanghai Index….

  20. radrian6 says:

    Hello Tony,
    The VIX was up 11.5% today which suggests institutions and hedge funds are preparing for lower prices over the next month. There are, of course, other possibilities for the sharp increase but it’s not a bad idea to keep an eye on the price action over the next few sessions. This is expiration week so there is mass liquidation and repositioning — this type of trading activity may temporaily influence market prices.

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