SHORT TERM: lower low - then rally, DOW +83
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.9%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight, then were about flat heading into the open. At 8:15 the ADP index was reported lower: 118K vs 158K, Productivity was reported higher : +2.9% vs +1.9% at 8:30. The market opened unchanged at SPX 1407, bounced to 1411 in the first few minutes, then headed lower. At 10:00 Factory orders were reported positive: +0.8% vs +4.8%, and ISM services were reported higher: 54.7 vs 54.2. At 11:00 the pullback hit a new low at SPX 1398, was nearly extremely oversold short term, and then started to rally. At 12:30 the SPX hit resistance at 1416, pulled back to 1411 by 2:00, then tried to rally again. Just past 3:00 the SPX hit 1415, and then pulled back to close at 1409.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.00%. Bonds gained 7 ticks, Crude lost 60 cents, Gold slipped $4, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Tomorrow: the ECB meets before the open, then weekly Jobless claims at 8:30.
The market rallied overnight, but only bounced after the open before heading to a new pullback low at SPX 1398. After that the market had its best rally since the recent SPX 1424 high. Rising to resistance at SPX 1416 before pulling back into the close. This morning we labeled the SPX 1398 low as a tentative Minute wave A, and this afternoon we labeled the 1416 high as a tentative Minute wave B. We would expect the last wave down of this pullback, Minute wave C, to be underway now. Should the market rally above 1416, SPX 1398 may have been the Minor wave 2 low. If not, and the market continues its pullback, we should see Minor wave 2 bottom within the OEW 1386 pivot range.
Short term support remains at SPX 1402/03 and 1396/98, with resistance at SPX 1413/16 and 1422/27. Short term momentum rose from quite oversold to nearly overbought, before ending the day at neutral. The short term OEW charts dipped negative then turned positive again with the swing level still at SPX 1407. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend probably underway
LONG TERM: bull market approaching inflection point
i’m a little concerned that everybody is looking at the same bullish ascending triangle pattern forming and yet we still can’t/don’t break out. hope today’s close isn’t a total pump fake, false breakout indicator.
who is everybody?!
hopefully you’re not going to make me name everybody by name…
argue a 4 drives pattern.????. they got me today.
starting to feel like this market desperately wants a santa clause rally
Tony, spx 60 above 1416 and new move up, correction complete at 1398, or below 1405 and c wave still in tact.
[1406] … that’s about it Gary
U could argue 3 drives pattern DOW 60 min.
HD!
I see it with consecutive weaker TA readings. Ben Bernak will try to spoil it!
C’mon, I am not talking about crash here..just looking for the coins on the floor..
DOW made a new rally high yesterday
A/D line suggests higher highs coming…
why do you think that, Tommyboys (AD line)?
Yes A/D leads and is usually – not always – telling.
thanks, agree on that…however only 114.5K so far
Tony, you mentioned expecting SLV around 32 if I understood correctly. Yesterday it hit around 31.5. Do you think SLV will not go much further down, even if gold is expected to hit 1631-1650 before resuming uptrend?
BB have yesterday’s low at $32.58
Are we looking at the same quote, SLV?
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/slv
Regardless, I was wondering if you expect it to stop around this level, or possibly to go further down to 28-29 area, which might be more in line with gold going down to 1630-1650 level.
$32 Silver, not SLV which is about a dollar cheaper.
$31, or a bit under for SLV.
Thanks, that helps.
hmm… treasuries are up, gold is down, crude is down, copper is down, nat gas is down, stocks are… up? interesting
SPX parameters tighten: 1406 – 1416
higher uptrend resumes
lower pullback continues
Higher means that yesterdays low at 1398 probably was the entire pullback?
Tony, do you think this AAPL action goes well with the intermediate iii thesis?
No, it is acting like it’s in a C wave down
Yeah and if C = A we are looking at $395 for Apple. That would create some nice ratings for CNBC!!!
Long case in crude and SPX still alive but critically injured..Silver charts looking interesting in backdrop of the gold chart
Crude moves from long to neutral…
W2 scenarios for the indices
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/12/05/elliott-wave-forecast-video-for-12-06-12-w2-scenarios-for-the-indices-youtube/
Hey Tony,
I noticed you mentioned AAPL low around 550 and we got that and then some.
Is AAPL still “downtrending” or “bottoming” ?
technically still downtrending
Thanks Tony!
I bought some at 516 and I will probably buy some more if it drops again tomorrow.
been in and out, now in again
Hi Tony,
Are you technicals in the gold market leaning towards an A wave instead of int ii yet? Looking more like A down to 1,672, B up to 1,755 (.618 retrace of A) and now in the C wave down to 1,625ish where A=C, also the highs of the summer consolidation.
Thanks!
were discussing that today …yes
Looks like it may happen in short order, many gold stocks look horrible and on the verge on breaking down; NEM comes to mind.
thanks Tony, mjt…..support for feb gold @1674, then 1645-1650 w/the ultimatel target in the 1631 area…
& strong R @ 1716ish and 1725 ish
Thanks, Tony.
I see the same pattern than three weeks ago. The blue chips hitting my stop level and my short positions in the tech sector doing well. We know what happened then.
I am ready to reload my 75% short position in the blue chip as soon as tomorow at the open.
We may have something different unfolding.
GL
thanks Tony. If you can, how do you break down those a and b waves on 60 min into smaller waves (structure) …or ma I asking too much. TIA?
CB,
It is simply the amount of the swing … with a couple of tech ind.
thanks Tony.
not sure how much this matters in the short term but just thought it was interesting that the recent SPX highs had a higher RSI reading than the 1470 highs back in early Oct.
thx Delta
U.S. stock market, is acting like my Garmin – takes me all over the place to get
from an A point, to B. Take it 1386 +/- 7 is stil your target ?
yes Bud