Objective Elliott Wave, OEW, is a quantitative approach to the Elliott Wave Theory. Once you learn OEW you will be able to quantitatively research the historical price performance of any asset class, or stock, and determine its current position within its overall long term trend. Quantified waves never change. Then, using shorter term charts, you will be able to determine good entry and exit price areas in the asset you are tracking.
This is not a course, this is private tutoring: one on one. You may take as long as you like to fully grasp the material and concepts at hand. It is not complicated. Actually you will be amazed, after some period of time and dedicated study, how easily you will be able to discern the waves as they unfold. OEW quantitatively identifies all the medium and long term waves that create bull and bear markets. Every one! We have been applying this technique, successfully, for nearly thirty years.
Over the years OEW analysis has led to some important projections in just the stock market alone. We projected the 1987 top and subsequent crash, then the Dec. 1987 low. The July 1990 top to the day, the 2000 top, and the Oct. 2002 low. The Oct. 2007 top (in Jan08), the Mar. 2009 low nearly to the day, the recent high in Sept/Oct 2012, and the recent low in Nov 2012, nearly to the day. We still favor a bull market top in 2013.
In Real Estate, OEW confirmed the bear market in 2006 and now the new bull market starting in 2011. In Bonds, OEW confirmed the recent bull market in 2007 and we are now anticipating an new bear market may be underway. In the Currency markets, OEW projected a strong rally in the USD in early 2008 after a three year decline. Then a resumption of its choppy bear market in 2009/10. We then turned bearish on several foreign currencies in mid-2011, and long term bullish on the USD. In early 2009, OEW projected a resumption of the ongoing 13 year bull market in some Commodities: including Gold and Silver. OEW can be used to track any asset class, including individual stocks, providing there is sufficient historical data.
Bull and bear markets can last for years. Medium term uptrends and downtrends only last for a few months, and are often mistaken for changes in long term trends. OEW analysis not only confirms when changes in long term trends are occurring, but also allows one to track a bull or bear market as it unfolds. If you are interested in learning how to do this type of analysis yourself, and joining our private OEW group, just contact me at oewtony@msn.com for the details. Best to your trading/investing.
“The possession of knowledge, unless accompanied by the manifestation and expression in action, is like the hoarding of precious metals; a vain and foolish thing. The Law of Use is universal, and he who violates it suffers by reason of his conflict with natural forces.”
looks like the 3pm day traders want to buy the double bottom intraday.
sold to them-
What’s that idiom? One step forward and two steps back? We need to see some upward 3’s destroying resistance or the bear scenario….. no room for sideways JMHO Might be a good spot to walk away till EOY or just scalp extremes. Our yearly pivot was 1260 for my analysis.
I agree HD … I myself think this rally met its end today, and new highs are much less likely than 1) a significant retracement, or 2) a retest of the november low, or 3) new lows altogether. If we break today’s low tomorrow, I’ll put both arms in the bear suit once more, with a stop on a close (or likely close) above today’s high.
I know it’s not OEW but the 50 SMA sure is holding SPX in place today.
Tony
Thank you for the update on the SPX chart
Quick question – I thought 3′s had to be the longest – or is it they just cannot be the shortest?
Thank you
Cheers
3′s cannot be the shortest
Got it – Thank you
hi Tony…what You thnk about that corrective sp movement?
http://kepfeltoltes.hu/121203/100594189sp_www.kepfeltoltes.hu_.gif
Sorry Charlie, but it looks like EWI labeling.
Five waves up ended in 2011.
Another five waves up into 2013 could end a large ABC from 2009.
That would probably fit your count better than WXYZ
morning Toney, et al
well we didn’t get down quite as far as i thought (1376 territory) but the 1380′s will do. just kissed my 1424 upside target for this rally and now feeling like we should melt down into year end as the full ineptitude of our politicians is realized.
but ya never know – miracles do happen! (just not usually in congress…) hah
thx RC, if we hit 1414 that’s possible
It hit the target of 1420 – 1430 today…. we must have something
yes, maybe five up from 1343
tagged 1414 and bounced straight up! somebody’s algos are right with ya Tony.
that was probably a 10 point BOT
Uptrend confirmed, Tony ??
many foreign indices, but not here yet
GM Tony & Co. ES trades 1424, aka W a Low and found R. Could complete the IHS pattern near fib 89 points. GL
Gm HD
14.25, 08.50, 03.50 retracement levels
What is all abt 33, Tony ? Have any idea ?
1946 + 66 = 2012
(2 x 33 =66)
Amazing. Interest rates may have already bottomed.
Think they have.
Was expecting rates to remain low until 2014.
But the USD bottomed a year earlier, and bonds maybe 2 years earlier.
Interesting,
Equities: From 1942 lows to 1975 lows = 33 years; from 1975 lows to 2008 lows = 33 years
What abt bonds ?: “Bond rates rise for for abt 34 years and decline for the same period”…(Tony caldaro)
Do we have the same pattern in commodities ?
Commodities generally rose for 13 years, then contract for 21.
13 + 21 = 34 (from lows to lows. Same as equities ?)
=)
And same as bonds, and currencies.
But all are a bit offset from each other.
33 years +/- corresponds to three sunspot cycles.
vibration, frequency and cycles … indeed
how calculate 1440 pivot point?
Wolf,
The market created that pivot as far back as the year 2000
In 2009: http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2010/07/09/why-this-elliott-wave-guy-is-bullish/
Nice work, Tony.
Congratulations !!
Sorry Tony,
I ponder about the 34 years cycle of commodities. I have just 29-31 years in the CRB-Future (1920-51; 1951-80; 1980-2011). Something wrong?
O.k. I know, that we must count the lows in a cycle. This could fit, but then we have from 1932-1968 66 years.
sorry, of course 36 years
The CRB displays price changes relative to demand/supply over a period of time. Economic boosts can alone drive prices up.
The commodity cycle we track is directed related to the cost of one ounce of Gold in USD.
Thanks Tony, but we had a fixed gold price for a long time.
Here is an interesting presentation by Pierre Lassonde (founder of Franco Nevada, FNV) covering gold and more importantly the commodity supercycle. Page 19 shows the commodity supercycles going back to 1800.
http://static.gowebcasting.com/documents/files/events/event_00001123_MgCJYt5c.pdf
O.k. if i count from 1864, the lows fit (but 1864 was a high). So there is a 34 year cycle. But i know, that the high not always follow the cycle of the lows.
Of course, you have better historical numbers as I. So you probably right.
Thanks Ryan!
thx Ryan
Gold made the high later then the crb in 2011. Normally it makes the high earlier. So thats one criterion for higher gold prices in 2013.
But if you look at the monthly bollinger bands of silver, it looks like a bubble in 2011 (Gold looks better with the bollinger bands, but I think a other important indicator gives alert in 2011).
Tony, is it possible, that gold makes new highs but silver fails?
Yes, Rolandu
What a difference:
In 2009: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQ_4Km90bkk
In 2010: http://estrategumtrading.com/2010/07/12/robert-prechter-dice-que-el-dow-va-a-1-000-puntos/
In 2011: http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/09/12/Video-Bob-Prechter-Explains-Triple-Top-Forming-in-U.S.-Stock-Market.aspx
In 2012: http://www.beaconequity.com/robert-prechters-dire-prediction-for-2012-2012-03-22/
Tony, it’s amazing how accurate OEW can be.
By the way, do you have a top already in place in the monetary base ?
Expecting a larger monetary base in 2013
Tony, if the Fed will still be in expansion mode next year, how could even think giving a 30% chance for a bear market ?. It doesn’t make sense.
markets anticipate