friday update

SHORT TERM: new downtrend low then a rally, DOW +46

At yesterday’s close the FED released this: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20121115a.htm. Asian markets gained 0.5% overnight. Europe opened lower and lost 1.3%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 9:15 Industrial production was reported lower: -0.4% vs +0.4%. The market opened slightly higher, hitting SPX 1355 in the opening minutes. The SPX had closed at 1353 yesterday. Soon after, the market started to pullback. At 10:00 the SPX hit 1345, bounced to 1351 by 10:30, then hit 1343 at 11:30. The market then started to rally. At 12:30 the SPX had rallied 18 points to 1361. The market then pulled back to SPX 1351 by 2:30, before rallying to 1362 by 3:30. A pullback into the close ended the week at SPX 1360.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.40, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.50%. Bonds gained 3 ticks, Crude rallied $1.20, Gold slipped $1, and the USD was higher. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 54.4% vs 55.1%. Medium term support remains at the OEW 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots.

The market continued to decline today until about 11:30. At the SPX 1343 low the market had reached our worse case correction level, our fibonacci/retracement levels, and an 8.9% correction. After that low the market rallied to a higher-high, after a lower-low, for the first time this month. This could be an important low. More on this, and other views, in the weekend update.

Short term support remains at SPX 1342/47 and 1333/38, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum finally rose off that positive divergence, ending the day above neutral. The short term OEW charts are still negative with the swing level at SPX 1375. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend new low at SPX 1343

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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14 Responses to friday update

  1. Thank you for your answer, Tony Caldaro. You are correct: decades ago, volume was not so expressive if compared to last decade one, due to the emergence and expansion of hedging funds. By the way, I’ve written many articles in Brazil about this new phasis of capitalism, which I call “speculative capitalism”, ahead and different of previous so said financial capitalism. This is a cycle which began at the beginnings of the 90, and all market volumes express it. Thank you, any way.

  2. I would like to see an analysis focusing on the volume of last years. So, the volume in 2007, if compared to that one of previous years, has increased substantially, suggesting a selling market as it ended by occur. Then after reaching 666 points in the SP, huge volumes for the next two and half years, gave origin to a bull market, suggesting a new hike could occur. But the volume in this current year (2012) is near the year of 2007, suggesting a selling market in under way. Last downtrend of 130 points occurred without expressive economical fundamentals, once, most of them had been disclosed ou debated months before, like European crisis, China economic desaceleration, fiscal clift or abyss, So in this front, no news. Conclusion I would like to point to your further analysis is on market volume, which should be added, on a long time perspective, to the Elliot wave perception.

    • tony caldaro says:

      Hi Paulo,
      Checked into volume decades ago.
      Unfortunately did not find it of much use, long term, and do not place much emphasis on it.
      Good thought nonetheless.

  3. M1 says:

    Thanks, Tony.
    It would be interesting knowing how many persons read your weekend update every saturday/sunday.

  4. Thx Tony, best blog ever ! :)

  5. Igor says:

    Congratulations Tony with the 3001st entry post. You are the Man!
    Regarding the current sell-off I couldn’t help but notice this tweet:

  6. tb45 says:

    Thanks Tony for your insight and hard work that you share with all of us!
    Tom B

  7. tony caldaro says:

    thx Fiona, obviously ;)

  8. fionamargaret says:

    Market up today – obviously in recognition of Tony’s 3000.
    Thanks Tony.

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