SHORT TERM: market rallies then new downtrend lows, DOW -29
This is our 3,000th entry on the blog. Overnight the Asian markets slipped 0.1%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.7%. US index futures were higher overnight, which recently seems to be the case nearly every night during this decline. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported much higher: 439K vs 355K, the CPI was reported slightly positive: +0.1% vs +0.6%, and the NY FED was reported still in contraction mode: -5.1 vs -6.2. The market opened flat at SPX 1355, tried to rally hitting 1361 in the opening minutes, then headed lower. At 10:00 the Philly FED was reported back in contraction mode: -10.7 vs +5.7. The SPX hit 1352 at 10:00, rallied to 1360 by 10:30, then made a new downtrend low at 1348 by 12:30. Just before 12:30 FED chairman Bernanke’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20121115a.htm. The market again tried to rally, hitting SPX 1359 by 2:00. But it rolled over again retesting SPX 1348 by 3:30, then bounced into a 1353 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.30%. Bonds lost 1 tick, Crude slid 85 cents, Gold dropped $11, and the USD was flat. Medium term support remains at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Tomorrow: Industrial production at 9:15, then Options expiration.
The market opened flat today, bounced around a bit, then made a new downtrend low at SPX 1348. The SPX has now declined 8.6%, or 127 points, from its September high. Yesterday we noted the largest downtrend ended the day after Thanksgiving 2011, and was 134 points. This is correct for only downtrends of this degree, which does not include the Primary II 2011 correction.
Despite the recent slide we still have wave relationship and retracement support just under today’s low. At SPX 1345/46 the SPX will have retraced exactly 61.8% of the recent uptrend, and Minor C = 2.618 Minor A. Just below this level, at SPX 1335, Minute C = 1.618 Minute A. Yesterday we upgraded the alternate bearish count to a 30% probability. That chart was first posted in last weekend’s update.
Short term support remains at SPX 1342/47 and 1333/38. Short term momentum is approaching extremely oversold, and still displaying a potential positive divergence – which has not meant much recently. The short term OEW charts remain negative with the swing level now at SPX 1381. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: new downtrend low at SPX 1348
LONG TERM: bull market
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First time in a while the SPX made 2 higher highs after the low was in. Congatulations Tony
Best to all
Dave
cheers Dave!
yeaaaaa new high …how about that
still pivot time though
Thanks Tony and gang for letting me wag my virtual tongue here today ..
have a great weekend everyone !
Have a great one Lee and Tony I am all caught up with Petraeus testimony on Benghazi!
Never mess with CIA!
Thanks Lee! Nice calls!
Thanks Tony!
Wow VIX just dumped
Did it do a courtesy flush ?
Hee hee
But it is amazing to see the speed at which that moves – scary
.50% on the day @ 1349.50
ESZ
Im looking for an 3 wave move down but lately those have been rare
we can hang over 1349.50 it’s on ..if not 99% ?
nice! Lee asks for a 3way ove and Lee gets a 3way-move.
Tony are you changing the green II to permanent anytime soon? – we need a reason to celebrate…
CB,
SPX just made its first higher high, after a low low, this month
Hey C B
Nothing fer sure yet
BUT I asked for a hot wheels race track fror Christmas back when I was 7 and I didnt get it… but my brother did ! So I think Santa owes me !
Tony, thanks…SPX has become a negotiation tool now and there is def. room below..will be glued to your charts as always.
Geez, a race track for Christmas?..that’s …well that’s a pretty outrageous request…although on second thought, yes..it’s really important to maintain a healthy sense of entitlement…so Santa you got the memo, right?.. give Lee sth. really nice for holidays…
Haha Lee.. first of all: happy 3000+ (yes, ur posts here.. I didn’t count them but I am pretty sure ur over 3000 by now & we love em all, btw
back under 1348 ESZ and its back to guessing..but Im saying theres a chance of an impulse up today
right again!
Congrats Tony! Love to read your blog.
Up 20 points not looking to strong,am i missing something here
pivot time….
As Art Cashin would say “I’ll take a double on the rocks hold the ice”
Also he says “It’s not were you open it’s where u close”
SPX made a new downtrend low and took out yesterdays high.
Watch the intraday fibs ! IMO
Art knows his stuff
Whats ur gut lee, bear market? Or just an overdone corrective?
Hey V
If it’s a correction we haven’t even retraced 10% yet from the years high in the SPX so I can’t call it overdone.
APPL has come off over 25 % so far.
As far as a bear market I’m not sure at all.
AAPL that is
Thanx,have you gone 2 months without changing your profile name (just asking!)
Hey V
I change my name as often as I change my boxers
Haha,have a nice day buddy!
Hehe, have a nice day buddy!
.382 back from days high at 1352 ESZ
AAPL about to put in a solid bullish hammer on the 60 min. Let’s get this party started!
Will be a huge hammer on the daily as well if it finishes anywhere in here or above…
and lookie there, some “positive” comments from congressional leaders regarding dealing with the fiscal cliff and we get the best pop in a while.
LIVE action!
murderouos 10 handle bot signature. If/when the flip the switch…… JMHO but the technicals have really failed on this wave and that gives some credit to an impulse probability. If I had a $1 for every comment on VAL, POC, TICK yada yada. Anything working for u’all?
What just happened – anybody ? Looking for a reversal and we got a big spike higher just now…
congressional comments regarding a budget package / dealing with fiscal cliff
I’m bullish to a fault here…
cheers Lee!
You are the master!
Should of known…. Lee was buying! Give em the biz
hahaha Master Angler perhaps !
“Short term support remains at SPX 1342/47 and 1333/38. Short term momentum is approaching extremely oversold, and still displaying a potential positive divergence – ”
Thanks Tony
Congrats Tony – here’s to 7 more years!
thx … I’ll go for that
Morn guys I got stopped out @ 1343 this morn from yesterdays attempted long swing trade.
Thanks a lot APPL
Dammit Jim I’m a scalper not a doctor
I’m scalping long against 1342
Unless AAPL is going out of business they’re a screaming buy here. Got a note from a CFA indicating AAPL could not report certain profits out of China last Q and is why they came in light – but will be reporting them next Q which should push them WAY past estimates… Hope its true!
Thanks Tommyboy
Wheres ur sell stop at ?
Do not have a position in AAPL. Other than an occasional option I can’t play in these big names – no edge.
Hey tommyboys
I hear that ! I lost the edge in when Globex became self- aware
AAPL just can’t seem to find a bid. I guess that’s what happens when every hedge fund in the country owns it. it’s killing every rally attempt in the mkt.
on the bullish side, yeah it’s becoming a dividend yield play! 2% yield now, and climing by the minute
Slip slid’in away… 509 now !
Happy 3000, Tony!
and thanks for allowing my obnoxious posts.
cheers!
interestingly, the VIX just refuses to break out lately. can’t seem to get above that 18-19 range. is that the holiday effect? (lots of mkt closed days in the next 1.5 months)
VIX usually starts rising slowly offf a significant low
Hey Tony, good morning! I recall you making a comment months ago that you thought that when AAPL had finally met its bull market high then so the SPX might as well. Looking at AAPL now about $175 off of its high, is that a thought that’s gaining some traction in your mind?
with such a long and established upward trend I honestly expected AAPL to put in a much more gradual topping process.
RC,
Probabilities are increasing in that direction
That’s a shame. oh well. what really baffles me is that we can easily see how things are going to play out with the election and all this fiscal cliff junk months ago. yet the market truly just ignores all signs until it’s immediate. i mean, all i hear now across the street is fiscal cliff this and that. seriously? people are surprised?
the longer i’m in the markets the more i’m convinced they are not efficient and certainly not forward looking (at least not more than a few days)
Really, Fiscal Cliff? Interesting.
i wish i was joking. but i swear that’s all the institutional sales and trading desks are talking about right now. that and the fact they’re all resigned to their tax bracket going up next year.
No wonder growth stocks are selling off
Tony
Congratulations on 3000th post. Cal Ripkenest! I have followed you closely for almost a year, and you are an island of sanity, courtesy and solid analysis in a turbulent sea. I appreciate your dedication, and your open mind to adapt and anticipate alternatives as the market unfolds. Thanks so much!
thx Newbie … certainly has been a wild market
You’re old school work ethic and generosity is inspiring
Congrats and Thank You Tony !
Your that is ..doh !
TY Lee
Tony. Thank you so much for all the 3000 posts. I have not read them all but everyone I have read has been very much appreciated. Thanks!
Tony, do you have any opinion on Tom Demark’s work and track record?
http://www.distressedvolatility.com/2012/11/tom-demark-sees-major-s-500-sell-signal.html
I’m not familiar with Tom’s work however I have seem him on Bloomberg many times.
I’m wondering if its a good thing that the SPX did not exhaust itself with the 13th Tom DeMark was looking for before the sell off.
Tom was very clear in saying the SPX would surprise everyone and rise to 1480′ish before correcting, which obviously did not occur.
So maybe this downtrend eliminates the exhaustion pattern Tom was looking for thus setting up for another run over 1480?
Blubrd,
Do not follow others that closely
On SP 500 I see the correction as a double ABC, first one almost flat and next one steep, aweak reaktive bounce from 1377 to 1380 and the last decline from 1380 to 1360 as the ending to these two double ABCs. Nikkei has nice divergences
Guess first ABC was a correction on overconfidence and the second one a correction of grave reaction less non buying and slight selling. But abcs can grow on themselves, we are far from out of the woods..
And glad I did the tech analysis on DRYS on the bear flag it was forming. By the way Nikkei could also be working on a bear flag and test bottom at 7000 or so. lets hope not.
I have a projection of DRYS down at 1,5 or thereabout.
And concerning Nikkei it it has been in an uptrend since 8100 and the 10 000 spike was a motivational wave one and june first 8440 was end to wave 2 we could see a helluva rally if it passes 10 000. That would be a dream come to reality, and drag the worst of the worst stocks to great heights.
And Tony, thanks for keeping your blog !
I see on the weekly; SPX has broken the trendline from 2011 and needs to close Friday back round 1380 to get back on/above the trendline.
I see on the monthly; SPX has broken down thru the small rising wedge from 2011 and needs to close November above 1410′ish otherwise looks bearish with next major monthly trendline support from 2010 at around 1250′ish.
So we could be looking at a multi month decline to 1250′ish before any significant bounce.
Certainly looking far from bullish at the moment, however a massive rally on Friday could change things a bit.
Can I call you Mr. 3000?
Awesome work Tony! Keep riding the waves.
thx T
Congratulations on the 3000, Tony.
thanks John
Congratulations Tony! I’ve just read your 1st post from 2005. Very interesting!
And I have a question whenever you happen to have some time, re: your July 1990 comment when you “pinpointed the exact top of the stock market within the exact hour of its occurrence.” That’s pretty awesome, Tony! Exactly how did you accomplish that? Did you work with some short-term cycles then?
CB,
No cycle work. Just the wave structures and our indicators.
Traded futures then, along side Eli T.
Hello, dynamic duos!!..it’s what you know and who you know, right? : ) Very nice Tony. You must have a great sense of accomplishment when looking at everything you’ve done so far and how you’ve always shared it with others. Thanks so much!
that’s my honor/duty
Great accomplishment, Thanks for your efforts! Read your entries daily.
I have noticed that the Dow and the S&P finally closed their gaps today. I have assumed this has been a downtrend indicator for the past weeks. Am I correct in assuming this may be indicative of approaching a near term bottom? Will they near parity at the end of the quarter, or am I assuming things?; am I grasping at imaginary straws? Thoughts Anyone, references to read? Thanks, Joel
Meant to say; The Futures Indices of the Dow and the S&P vs. the Markets.
Congrats on 3,000 Tony. Seems like you never take a break, appreciate it!
From Aug05 until now have not missed a beat.
No matter where I’m at …
Congratulation Tony. Really admire your dedication.
Hi Tony,
Just checking….
Are you thinking the ‘upgraded the alternate bearish count’ will be confirmed if& when the DOW drops below 12000 in this current downtrend? & once confirmed the alternate bearish count means the bull market is over?
What SPX/DOW prices targets does the alternate bearish count project for 2012/13/14?
Cheers
Paul
Paul, more than likely.
But not thinking that far ahead yet.
Tony, whether the bull market has ended or not is still up in the air but what percentage do you think that market will give back in the next bear market. Hope we are not going back to last bear market lows.
A 50% market loss might as be back to the lows, but not quite
No more comments until monday. Unless, we get a large move tomorrow.
GL.
Tony _ Congrats on the reaching a 3000 blog entry level – quite
spectacular, and a great achivement, and service – thank you.
Bud
Just riding the waves
Thanks, Tony !! ..and congratulations for this excellent blog. For sure, nothing will be the same with out it. Hope you have enough time and you like having this blog for many more years !!
A bearish alternate and end of the bull cycle with the QE3 still running at full speed. That would have been something!
That’s pretty much the level
Tony, bearish alternate suggests that the bull market ended, right? IS Dow 12000 the line in the sand for confirmation?