SHORT TERM: market opens higher, then resumes downtrend, DOW -185
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.6%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.9%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 the PPI was reported lower: -0.2% vs +1.1%, and Retail sales were reported lower as well: -0.3% vs +1.1%. The market opened higher at SPX 1377, rallied to 1380 in the first few minutes, then began to pullback. The SPX had closed at 1375 yesterday. At 10:00 Business inventories were reported higher: +0.7% vs +0.6%. The market continued to pullback until it hit SPX 1365, the 1363 pivot, at 11:00. A rally attempt followed, topping at SPX 1371 by noon, then the market headed lower again. At 2:00 the FED released its FOMC minutes:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20121114a.htm
. After this the downtrend starting making new lows. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1353, then closed at 1355.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -1.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.35%. Bonds gained 1 tick, Crude rallied 75 cents, Gold added $1, and the USD was lower. Medium term support now drops to the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance now at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, along with the CPI and NY FED. At 10:00 the Philly FED, then at 1:20 FED chairman Bernanke gives a speech on Housing.
The market opened higher today, hit SPX 1380, pulled back to unchanged at 1375. Then it quickly broke through the downtrend low at SPX 1371, on its way to 1365. After setting up a positive divergence at that low the market tried to rally. But the rally came up short, at the previous SPX 1371 low, and the market headed lower. After that the market broke through the OEW 1363 pivot heading into the close. This was a bit of a surprise.
Thus far this downtrend has declined from SPX 1475 to 1353: 122 points. The Minor C wave, (counting Minor A @ SPX 1426 and Minor B @ SPX 1464), is now approaching 2.618 times the length of A. This will occur at SPX 1345/46, which is also a 61.8% retracement of the uptrend. There is a positive divergence on the hourly charts. But the daily charts lost their positive divergences today. Excluding Primary II, the largest downtrend of the entire bull market has been 134 SPX points. It bottomed the day after Thanksgiving in 2011.
Short term support drops to SPX 1342/47 and 1333/38, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum is quite oversold and displaying a positive divergence. The short term OEW charts remain negative, with the swing point SPX 1389. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: new downtrend low
LONG TERM: bull market
Nice to finally see a day where we are not closing on the lows
Long .ESZ for a swing…DJIA new low SPX and Nas not
1379 oco 1343 stp ESZ
Thanks Lee. Thanks Tony.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-zbNgQekS_48/UKUycAOS4LI/AAAAAAAAC5o/Cu1KN3YTP1I/s1600/121115+Dow+3pdh.jpg
Carl Futia’s take.
Thanks Tony.
Don’t mess with the golden ratio! today was a good day. Didn’t lose any money. Cya’s
My guy told me to close short positions, so I did
could be a day early,but take good profits if you got them
Better be safe than sorry.
Never go broke taking profits !
Ok I’m out of here for a while again u guys enjoy the day and trade well !
Life is short and the trading hours are long
‘Life is short and the trading hours are long’ – haa..that’s sooo true!
Tony said:
“Zero Hedge is like Chicken Little … the sky is always falling”
and ground is always sinking at the same rate, so, relatively speaking, we never get to touch the falling sky — BUMMER!!!!
Lee, your twitter guying spotting some Institutional buying?
Hey V
No ….my twiiter guy sez were going to trade SPX 1330 before any real pop
But I certainly see buying here.. and lots of air underneath..so if we hold here..yada yada
u have a twitter guy and a peach guy?
hahaha
Hey H D
I’m from Chicago where everybody’s says ” I gotta Guy ” thats funny
Dangerous thing to say but todays low may hold , lets see
Due 2X.
As suggested yesterday, indices did make new low. Remains to be seen if there is any bounceback.
Bear trap below 1350? Some r buying here. GL
.618 Fibo price/time
Nice HD!
Thanks HD
Noticed as well. Now, if this is broken, can there be such a thing as a 100% retrace?
Get some guys..GL
PG looks can be a play on the hourly chart. Waiting to see the next bar. 65.83 is most likely the low for this down move, if not, a marginal low in the next few bars.
still a no go..
it looks like we may get a go, if we stay above 65.83 this bar and the next, use 65.80 as your stop. Target 67.74~68.92 before next Tuesday noon.
PG last, 66.16.
If the target is not met, go flat anyway and look for the next opportunity.
Are you guys front running me?
PG has reached the min TGT 67.74.
Time is up for this trade. Last 68.47.
Shake N’ Bake. always a fav in my house. Scalporama.
1 last thing ..I think there’s some buying going on in ESZ..GL
thx Lee
I knew it! LX = Lee.
I3
U found Waldo
Lee, we are tempting to hone in on the sellers.
Pensions funds, and banksters of course, along with traders.
But have you heard anything about Hedge Fund redemptions?
Tony,
I personally haven’t but people have sent me those ZeroHedge links that claim it’s been happening
It’s certainly getting Jiggy…wars and rumors of war
But I’m a contrarian by nature…CL just got some news
Lee,
Zero Hedge is like Chicken Little … the sky is always falling
Kinda like FOX news too. Whats the worst possible news so we can upset everyone and lets report that.
fun fact: one of the main writer’s of ZeroHedge is banned from the industry for insider trading..
http://www.finra.org/Newsroom/NewsReleases/2008/P116963
http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/blog/tyler-durden-exposed
Nice work Delta
old news, Delta..
If you want to go there, then include Business Insider.
Thanks Igor !
ES getting bought again…accumulation or one hell of a short position being covered ?
Jump in Jobless claims blamed on Sandy…I didn’t realize that Pennsylvania and Ohio were hit that hard…Think for urselfs and have a great week !
Haven’t banks been laying off lots of people?
Yes sir ….also “The highest numbers of new filings came from Pennsylvania and Ohio, where there were thousands of layoffs in the construction, manufacturing, and automobile industries.”
A bottom probably in place this week Tony?
RSI14 at 27-level seems attractive to me.
KO
Hard to say.
If the market can take out 1380 then the odds improve.
The Dow is laying at the 20 mma….. http://scharts.co/X4Pmpb
This level should be a good support.
GL
SPX 1390 – 1400 resistance.
Covering 50% of my short positions at the open (I will stay 75% short. 1/2 blue chips, 1/2 tech sector)
kudos Mario … nice trade
Will probably cover 50-100% of my shorts before or after the close. Let’s see what day brings us.
Hi Tony,
Looks like Shanghai in the process of making the ’5′ bottom?
How low will ’5′ be will be interesting to see.
So when Shanghai turns up again will it be time to buy?
Cheers
Paul
thinks so Paul
interesting that % of stocks above their 200 day-MA has fallen to under 40% as of today. this level has been a good zone for registering intermediate extremes as shown here.. http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=$MMTH&t=BAR&size=M&v=0&g=1&p=D&d=X&qb=1&style=technical&template=
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA200&p=W&st=2001-01-01&en=(today)&id=p93864486747&a=128526995&listNum=23
This chart really only represents one data point – last June. Hope it works regardless…
Sorry referencing Delta’s chart. Tony yours almost looks to show an inverted HS here representing a possible huge move in this indicator dead ahead ( wishful thinking?)…
Tommy’s
Just noting the declining participation in the number of stock since 2009
Confused Tony. “Declining” number of participating stocks ? Are there fewer stocks today than in 2009 ? Isn’t this a measure of all stocks’ 200 SMAs ?
This chart is a measure of stocks, above their 200 dma, on the NY stock exchange.
This chart is the % of stocks, above, same, on the NYSE
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA200R&p=W&st=2001-01-01&en=(today)&id=p94601266845&a=283243230&listNum=23
same results
You can extend timeframe option to multiple years out. Was merely pointing out we are near a important levels.
A Technical Analyst and a Fundamental Analyst are chatting about the markets in the kitchen.
Accidentally one of them knocks a kitchen knife off the table landing right in the fundamental analyst’s foot!
The fundamental analyst yells at the technician, asking him why he didn’t catch the knife?
“You know Technicians don’t catch falling knives!” , the technician responded.
He in turn asks the fundamental analyst why he didn’t move his foot out of the way?
The Fundamental analyst responds, “ I didn’t think it could go that low”.
http://allstarcharts.com/i-didnt-think-it-could-go-that-low/
cheers!
my tax lady sent me this…….
good 1, Igor…so ur saying buy only on strenght or use plastic knives, right =)
Just trying to cheer you up
Nice, Igor!
thanks Igor!!
Thanks, Tony.
The trend line support was broken (Dow)…..http://scharts.co/PAPVI5
Now, the Dow is laying at the 20 mma….. http://scharts.co/X4Pmpb
I am expecting a stronger turbulence (up and downs) if this support is broken in the short term.
GL
No rumors yet, but the market is suggesting something. What is it, Tony ?
GOP jumps over the cliff?
WW ?
Tony, does losing the 200 day affect your outlook any?
no Maks, do not follow it
Hi Tony,
I saw you took down the alternate count on FB. Stock had a big move today.. is there a price level that would cause you to reevaluate the primary count? Maybe there was just a short squeeze today and it will head lower later this week.
Kyle,
FB has been a contrary stock since its IPO.
Usually the market rallies and FB falls, and via versa.
Still in a downtrendm despite today’s advance.
Which was also odd: rallying with the release of 800 mln shares.
Was quite nice of the market to give those sellers a better price, while the stock market was down over 1%.
Toyed with that alternate count, but it didn’t make much sense.
cheers!
I heard that one of the transfer agents had difficulty and couldn’t deliver the stock. Not sure if this is true or not as I couldn’t verify it.
Guess the public does not know how to sell short yet
Down we go …
Bulls need to make a stand above 12035, or it is game, set , match.
ASTRO Reversal November – December 2012…
http://astrofibo.blogspot.ca/2012/11/astro-reversal-november-december-2012.html
Hi Tony; We’re half way in one day to the drop we discussed yesterday – SP 1325 (http://hgpolites3.wordpress.com/). Does this size of a drop increase the probability we’re in a primary wave IV pullback – or – something larger?
Cheers,
Greg
Actually yes.
We’re still a bit fromit, but that DOW 12,000 does not look so far away anymore.
Bottom in maybe 1/2% down
Hey Tony-I am not sure I am understanding the largest drop of the entire bull market was 134 points. There was a 300 point drop in 2011 and just the last one this year was 190 points +-. Thanks in advance. G-
Correct, should have mentioned with the exception of Primary II.
Then we had 113, 254, and 156 downtrends.
Tony, the pullback has been much more than expected for this wave type. Any need to change the long term outlook yet?
No, still within normal parameters for this type of correction in this market
I know hope is no trading strategy – but I hope we get a sizable bounce and soon…
Maybe we need a 150+ comments day before the bottom again…
=) ..I think there is a law that says that the market will always continue to move in a direction that nobody anticipates/understands, and it’ll continue to do so until….well, until everyone understands everything completely =) and then the market will violently reverse its direction and nobody will understand anything again…
=)
=) oh wow, when at least 1 person agrees w/me that’s a good day for me Tony! Theorizing is good, but monetizing is better =) just ask Lee cuz I think he’s really the only one that truly knows how important it is to be ahead of the crowd to be successful at this game..
maybe =)
CB,
Wild day … bears are pounding the markets.
“It bottomed the day after Thanksgiving in 2011.”
Thanks Tony….So the Grinch is not gonna steal our Christmas after all , is he? =) ..geez, they’re really aiming for a new high somewhere near 12/21, aren’t they..