SHORT TERM: market opens higher, then resumes downtrend, DOW -185
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.6%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.9%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 the PPI was reported lower: -0.2% vs +1.1%, and Retail sales were reported lower as well: -0.3% vs +1.1%. The market opened higher at SPX 1377, rallied to 1380 in the first few minutes, then began to pullback. The SPX had closed at 1375 yesterday. At 10:00 Business inventories were reported higher: +0.7% vs +0.6%. The market continued to pullback until it hit SPX 1365, the 1363 pivot, at 11:00. A rally attempt followed, topping at SPX 1371 by noon, then the market headed lower again. At 2:00 the FED released its FOMC minutes: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20121114a.htm. After this the downtrend starting making new lows. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1353, then closed at 1355.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -1.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.35%. Bonds gained 1 tick, Crude rallied 75 cents, Gold added $1, and the USD was lower. Medium term support now drops to the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance now at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, along with the CPI and NY FED. At 10:00 the Philly FED, then at 1:20 FED chairman Bernanke gives a speech on Housing.
The market opened higher today, hit SPX 1380, pulled back to unchanged at 1375. Then it quickly broke through the downtrend low at SPX 1371, on its way to 1365. After setting up a positive divergence at that low the market tried to rally. But the rally came up short, at the previous SPX 1371 low, and the market headed lower. After that the market broke through the OEW 1363 pivot heading into the close. This was a bit of a surprise.
Thus far this downtrend has declined from SPX 1475 to 1353: 122 points. The Minor C wave, (counting Minor A @ SPX 1426 and Minor B @ SPX 1464), is now approaching 2.618 times the length of A. This will occur at SPX 1345/46, which is also a 61.8% retracement of the uptrend. There is a positive divergence on the hourly charts. But the daily charts lost their positive divergences today. Excluding Primary II, the largest downtrend of the entire bull market has been 134 SPX points. It bottomed the day after Thanksgiving in 2011.
Short term support drops to SPX 1342/47 and 1333/38, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum is quite oversold and displaying a positive divergence. The short term OEW charts remain negative, with the swing point SPX 1389. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: new downtrend low
LONG TERM: bull market