SHORT TERM: gap up opening faded again, DOW +26
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. European markets opened higher, but lost 0.1%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 369K vs 388K, plus Durable goods orders were reported higher: +9.9% vs -13.2%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1418, and in the opening minutes hit 1421. Soon after, the market started to pullback. At 10:00 Pending home sales were reported higher: +0.3% vs -2.6%. The pullback continued. Just past 10:00 the FED released this: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20121025a.htm. Around noon the SPX hit 1405, a new low for this pullback/correction. Then the market tried to rally. Heading into the close the SPX rebounded to 1413 and closed there.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.10%. Bonds lost 16 ticks, Crude added 45 cents, Gold gained $11, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Last night the FED reported New home prices slipped: $292.4K vs $293.9K. Tomorrow: Q3 GDP at 8:30, then Consumer sentiment around 10:00.
The market gapped up at the open today for the second day in a row. This has not occurred since late July. Unlike late July, however, when the market gained about 4% over those two days. The recent gap up openings were completely sold off, and the gaps were closed. Not unusual for downtrend behavior. Yesterday’s selling led to a new downtrend low at SPX 1407, and today’s did the same when the SPX hit 1405. We continue to target the SPX 1391/93 fibonacci/retracement area for the first test of a potential low.
Short term support remains at SPX 1402/03 and SPX 1396/98, with resistance at SPX 1413/16 and SPX 1422/27. Short term momentum spent most of the day below neutral. The short term OEW charts remain negatively biased, with the swing level now around SPX 1427. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend likely underway
LONG TERM: bull market
it is appreciated by Wave City Center
Wave City Centre
How does it go – tops are events bottoms are processes???
usually
Hmm – cryptic but hey I’ll take it
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Silva/20121024.html
Good Gold article if you like Technical analysis
thx Herring
short /ZN @ 132’165. 132’200 stop oco 132’100 lmt.
it is time to move now buddy!
Lee, I need to to move ZN for me..
don’t make me sacrifice my keyboard..
I believe Lee is out for a couple weeks
ahh, thanks, no wonder I got no help in ZN.
that was a cheap keyboard, right, Randolph?
haha, CB, you know why I like you! Have a great weekend!
oops..that was cruel, wasn’t it..I hope Lee will be back soon and will help you with ZN. have a nice weekend all. Thanks Tony.
CB, no worries..all fun here! Have a great one!
Stopped out at ’215.
it looks like they pump-n-dump-ed me..LOL..
Tony – does this price action exhibit the characteristics of a “c”?
Thank you
yes
Thank you kind sir
Cheers
Okay – one more I promise – so the potential target to complete “c” is the 1391/1393 or just the 1402/03 support are?
Thank you
fibo/retrace first support 1391/93
1402/03 and 1396/98 short term support
also 1386 pivot range right in the lower 1390′s too
NAZ 100 breaking 200 day ma
Looks like it really wants to get down to the 1402 support area
Morn
Last nites futures ..
Potter wasn’t selling he was buying
USA
Something it may be more serious.
http://scharts.co/X4Pmpb
Dji support = 13,000 at abt 20 mma + medium term trend line support (ending triangle ? )
thx Mario for yout inputs
Thx to you, Tony.
Watching VIX.
http://kvilia.wordpress.com/
http://scharts.co/QTZvnm
The Tech sector at a crucial support. (200dma, medium term trend line support), and it is showing + divergence.
My feeling ? it’s gonna brakedown
nothing like some irrelevant month(s) old econ data to kick start the rally!
relevant … beat estimates
Really relevant
Government Consumption
1 more washout low monday and tuesday on S&P
i was under the impression that stocks rallied from june through september in anticipation of this coincident economic performance. didn’t we already get the 2% GDP rally?
or, according to what i’m hearing here the june-sep rally was related to then 2-3 month old 2Q GDP data?
i guess a better question is, if we believe the market tries to price in the future, does the fact that we did 2% vs 1.8% from June-Sep change any views about the risks or prospects for the market in the future?
i’d argue it could be worse, as it appears that the beat was largely driven by higher than expected government spending, which in turn was likely from pulled-forward spending on fear of budget/sequestration issues coming into next year.
RC
Think is bull market has been responding to the uncertainty factor.
Corrections have all coincided with the latest fear factor.
Recently, after BHO lost the first debate and the market headed lower.
Plus corporate earnings, after Q2 revenue misses, and Q3 GDP until today.
Also in the background is the FC.
Good morning Tony
Reviewing the charts again I now see a +div on the COMPQ daily RSI WRT price from previous low earlier in October – however DOW and SPX do not.
However, since the COMPQ started down trend and we now have a +div any chance hat means anything?
Thank you
Cheers
Mornin,
Yes, think we should looking for a bottom in the NDX.
The futures were quite washed out last night after AAPL earnings.
those futures were immediately bought. does it count if the cash mkt never gets to see any selloff?
Some of our guys were buying that NQ sell off too.
NDX already down 8% in the last month.
Thanks, Tony.
less charts per comment ?
Tony, any new target for AAPL if it breaks 600?
Just under $600 was the target
You think that is all the correction we see even If market has further to go before this interim ii is over?
We should see the AAPL low tomorrow.
It usually bottoms before the market.
We’ll see.
oh I see. Thanks Tony.
Hi Tony/Patrick – do you think we have further to fall on gold in this decline. Thanks for any thoughts, Alex
A gold chart…
http://stockcharts.com/public/1178409
Good looking Gold chart. Thanks for posting.
ESZ just retraced the entire move from 1st week of Sept @ 1397.00.
Reset big bounces..enjoy !
ESZ futures just retraced 99.9 % from the move up in the 1 st week of december at todays globex low… Have a great weekend guys !
Okay can somebody please explain to me how this is not deceptive, or just confusing at the very least:
AMZN stock officially closed at 222.92. The NDX 100, in which it’s a constituent, closed at 2657.657. The closing price for AMZN as calculated into the NDX close, is 227.55.
So, which is correct? I just asked Bloomberg and they can’t really explain it too well.
I get that there are different local exchanges. I see AMZN closes around 227.55-227.75 across those different exchanges. Okay, fine. But then there’s a mkt (ARCA) that curiously got hit hard at the close and the price tanked to 222.92. And it just so happens that the official composite closing price reflects the 222.92 of that one exchange. Seems the guys trading on ARCA had some interesting insight into AMZN’s earnings.
So now, strangely, if the other 99 stocks in the NDX opened perfectly unch’d tomorrow morning, and AMZN opened at $225, you’d see the stock up $2 and the index in the red.
RC, I’ve had these discrepancies in my quotes too since the close today…very confusing to say the least!…but is it gonna matter 5 years from now?…prbly. not
ya never know! one man’s aberration is another man’s flash crash…
right!…well, all the cofusion is done for the benefit of the confuser..as we know..
Theres ur $600 AAPL
Tony….nice!
585.10 is after hrs low. at 586 there is largest after hr order of 4000+ shares. Ramki – Tony’s good friend has artcile in forbs. He has 586 is low for correction. In his labels thats wave 4 making 23.6% of previous wave 3. And that may start his last wave 5. I know after hrs dose not count so if tomrrow appl stops around 586 then seems perfect sweet spot.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2012/10/02/elliott-waves-warn-of-apple-correction – if someone interested in link
thanks Tony!