SHORT TERM: gap up opening faded, DOW -25
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market gapped up at the open to SPX 1418. The SPX had closed at 1413 yesterday. Within the first few minutes the SPX hit its high for the day at 1420, and then began to pullback. At 10:00 New home sales were reported higher: 389K vs 373K, and the FHFA housing price index rose: +0.7% vs +0.2%. The market pulled back to SPX 1412 by about noon, then bounced to 1416 ahead of the FOMC statement: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20121024a.htm. After a copy and paste report the market then headed lower. In the final hour of trading the SPX hit 1407, then bounced to close at 1409.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.35%. Bonds lost 3 ticks, Crude slid 95 cents, Gold dipped $5, and the USD was flat. Medium term support remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims and Durable goods orders at 8:30, then Pending home sales at 10:00. The first look at Q3 GDP is on friday.
The market gapped up at the open today, made it to SPX 1420, and then headed back down for the rest of the day. In the last hour of trading the Techs made a new low for their downtrend, and the Cyclicals did as well. We continue to believe this current decline is targeting the SPX 1391/93 fibonacci/retracement area next. At these levels we would have a 38.2% retracement of the uptrend, and Minor C will equal 1.618 Minor A. There are a few short term support levels, just under today’s low, before that could occur.
Short term support remains at SPX 1402/03 and SPX 1396/98, with resistance at SPX 1413/16 and SPX 1422/27. Short term momentum hit neutral today, then ended the day slightly oversold. The short term OEW charts remain negatively biased from SPX 1448, with the swing level now around 1431. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend likely underway
LONG TERM: bull market
I wouldn’t even call this a correction. Perhaps, a consolidation/sideways: http://scharts.co/RxXVFU
http://scharts.co/O3NFby
It looks it is all abt the tech sector. aapl ?… – the show starts after the bell =) -
Here, the alt count once again: http://scharts.co/P3GtLF
GL
just noticed the language in the article Tony my bad.
ha.. Lee, ur our chief-investment-officer and the ultimate gossip hound.. so basically now we know everything we need to know (lucky us
)
Near the bottom of a 3 in the indices:
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/10/25/elliott-wave-midday-update-video-10-25-12-near-the-bottom-of-a-3-in-the-indices-youtube/
didnt hear buy aapl here today …hmmmm
buy aapl!
there ya go
Hey R C
You like apples ?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/203623.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents
re: apples, nah, not really. feelin $572. c = a. just like last time (4/10/12-5/18/12)
On small cap index (from recent top) I see a rather flat ABC, then a corrective bounce before ultimate roundish bottom where we are today. if this patterns pans out we should rise from this point.
thx Tore
Hi Tony,
The TSX weekly chart indicates that this index has completed a 5 waves in 2011, now is in bear market. Would you expect 50% retracement from the high? TIA
http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/chartbook/82014406;
Mont,
Some of these bear market rallies have been doing better than expected.
50% retracement sounds reasonable.
Tony what effect do you think a Romney victory would have on the Gold price?
Would it mean the cancellation of QE3; or is this QE programme now irreversible?
Also wondering if the Fiscal Cliff deadline will impact the Gold price?
Hi Alex,
Had not really thought that far ahead.
Until the futures swing in Romney’s favor not sure that kind of speculation matters.
The Fiscal Cliff is a likely event, no matter who wins.
As with all big decisions these days, politicians will probably just kick the can down the road again. It’s not really a good time in the cycle to be thinking Austerity.
Thanks Tony.
I think the Fiscal Cliff deadline ought to be deflationary for November and December, until a temporary fix is agreed (most likely at the last minute on New Year’s Eve). Just not sure whether Gold can resist deflationary pressure due to it’s status as a safe haven?
Not sure either.
Really have not given either of your two points much thought.
Alex,
I’ve actually been thinking about both of your points quite a bit since the weekend before last.
Romney says he wants a “strong Dollar policy”, wants to get rid of Bernanke, and stop QE. Haven’t we had a “strong dollar policy” as long as I have been alive? Frankly I don’t see how he can quit QE without us ending up right back in the soup the way we were back in 2008-2009. I’ll believe it when I see it but the market is speaking loudly. Gold and silver peaked right after the first debate when Romney surged in the polls. He has seemingly been gaining since and the metals have corrected a decent
amount.
Obviously an Obama win is hugely positive for precious metals. A Romney win brings up question marks for the precious metals in the near term.
Forgot to mention that the miners have actually been acting pretty well relative to the metals. Since the miners tend to lead this is positive for the metals. On the other hand I’d really like to see relative strength in both gold and silver vs. the SPX before getting super bullish on the PM’s again.
Thanks Ryan.
In cyclical terms November ought to be bullish for Gold: so perhaps an Obama victory will be the catalyst that sets off the next up-trend?
Possible Alex. November is the most bullish month for precious metals. That combined with an Obama victory would definitely light the fire for the next leg up in precious metals IMO.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/69752877@N08/8122389819/sizes/l/in/photostream/
1510 SPX?
: )
Id rather talk about the 15 handle in the 13 handle
Hey I know u !
what is that chart? Looks like an inv chart of my testosterone levels ?
Lee! It has been a long while! I use AndroGel 1.62%…
for body building. : )
hi guys,
Ronin, u serious about1500 soon? like is oct 31oct (aka. the end of the fiscal year for the mutual funds) practical or is ur chart saying something different?
not like soon as tomorrow. : ) I am looking for a higher price and -Div. 1500 is just a number I picked from my hat…
15oo sounds good.. thanks for telling us!..keep ur hat handy, i3
Actually it is a baseball hat. As you know, there are many tiny holes in it..1510! hehe.
oh, baseball…right!! everyone wants to talk abtbasball…OK, I’ll stay quiet cuz that’s the things I know nothing about..
yup, happens once a year when the Sun and Saturn form a certain alignment…so let’s hope that by the end of the day today anyone who wanted to sell their equities (or was otherwise forced to liquidate them by the bigh onchos) has already sold them amid all that seriousness..GL to you folks in FL and along the East Coast ! thanks for the weather map Lee! I didnt have a clue about that big storm forming! Looks like some folks could lose their internet connection..which is prbly the worst thing that can happen to a person 
anyways, today is the most serious day of the year
perfect storm pt 2 they’re calling it
If it comes to pass NY and Boston will be on holiday
haa..well, there’s a fine line between a “holiday” and a forced “holiday” – that’s gna increase the neurotic quotient in both cities …sizably… just don’t close the markets guys!
Hi CB, what part of the country are you? It is nice here at 76 today, but the temp will drop 20 degrees between now and tomorrow. : (
i3, in the lower left quadrant..where the weather is, generally speaking, not an issue.
Nice!
Either we are at the same place as late 07 or early 06, you know we are about to take the elevator down before the snow melt…
hey Nostradamus thanks. The snow melt factor it’s kinda tough cuz our chief weather man is on vacay.. .although he’s given us 2 good pieces of advice: : ) 1./not 2 try to bend over backwards just to get a fake smile & 2/ sth. about marinating.. so let’s watch those round numbers.. and hmm, it certainly seems like the penny stock indicator is firing on all cylinders these days…let us know if you see something I3 .thanks
Nostradamus? I don’t think I used the phrase “end-of-the-world”.
meant you predicted correctly that the wordl would continue, and how : ) best of luck everybody today!
S1 @1400 ES Ole 13 handle traded in futures
S2 @ 1394 CL support @ 84.57
S3 @1381
PP @ 1407.50
R1 @ 1413.25
R3 @ 1434
Hmm – not liking the action maybe AAPL will save us
Question is then are the bots just going back to close the opening gap then we can move higher?
gap closed again
Sure is – now the question of the day “now what?”
momentum is far from being oversold
No such thing as a triple bottom is there?
not really
What is encouraging from a contrarian point is the fact that bullish rating is less than 30%.
that’s interesting ajww. thanks. How often does that number come out, if you happend to know – it almost seems that they beat the c*** out of the longs faster this time than anyone can count any sentiment numbers…I mean a nice waterfall..
oops..typo..if you happen to know.. thx
I am posting an alt count on the R2K
http://scharts.co/P3GtLF
GL
DOW 20,000 !!! =)
Hey, don’t get too exited. this count suggests major wave 2 is first. …11,000 (dow) may be revisited
Hi Tony,
Right now the green labels on SPX chart shows i/3 (i.e. either intermediate i of Major 3, or Major 4). At what level would you be able to confidently say if the current wave is ‘intermediate ii of Major 3 or it is indeed Major 4?
Thanks for all your work. As I have said before, this is “the best blog” and a must read.
thanks Syedsma,
We’re carrying the most probable count on the DOW charts: Int ii down (Major 3).
Waiting for 3-4-5 down to complete
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/10/24/elliott-wave-forecast-video-for-10-25-12-waiting-for-3-4-5-down-in-the-indices-youtube/
Anything is possible in markets, but one would expect that more sectors and individual stocks would participate in a bull-market top- market has been driven by very few stocks and sectors from the begining. That could be strength or opposite if we are to see a massve exodus of individual companies should a downturn commence.
So the ABC to the recent top at 1470 seems a little chartish, or shortsighted. I see that SID- EW predictions is proclaiming a massive decline…
It isnt unusual to see some hessistant behaviour before breaking up through all time high so this decline could be just that and this Q wasnt expected to be through the roof earnings wise. Lets see.
Thanks, Tony.
Hard to say where the market is headed at this moment.
Lets see how the + diverg works out tomorrow before we get too exited.
Have a great evening.
.
Go Tigers tonight!
Thanks Tony. Had a nice trade on CAF, and exit at 20. My work
ref SP500 is stil negative, on all three time frames. Thought CRUS,
would be a nice tech addition, to your equity list,
Bud
kudos, looks like China will be setting up soon.
CRUS has roller coaster history
CRUS – sure looks like a great train wride to me, Tony.
But, if you don’t want to chart it – Well…..
Bud,
Semi’s are difficult to track.
Sold out of 403b retirement and am in cash. When to get back in? That is the question.
when AAPL beats estimates, as it usually does, maybe?
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-24/demark-sees-s-and-p-500-index-peaking-around-1-480-before-12-percent-tumble
Thanks Tony.
Fiona, interesting thx