SHORT TERM: correction/pullback continues, DOW +2
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. European markets opened lower and lost 0.5%. US index futures were lower overnight as well. The market opened one point below friday’s SPX 1433 close. In the first half hour it dipped to SPX 1429, bounced to 1435, and then headed lower. Around 11:30 the SPX touched 1427, bounced to 1432 by noon, and then head lower again. Then around 1:30 the SPX hit the lower limit of support at 1422, and rallied into a 1434 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.50%. Bonds lost 13 ticks, Crude slid $1.35, Gold added $5, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. The FED starts its two day FOMC meeting tomorrow.
The market opened relatively flat today, pulled back in a stair-step decline to the lower end of the SPX 1422/27 support zone, then rallied into the close. This afternoons rally, SPX 1422-1434, is the best rally since the recent 42 point decline began from SPX 1464. At the lows, the hourly RSI hit one of its lowest levels of the entire year. It was reset to neutral this afternoon when the market rallied. At the close the market ended the day relatively unchanged.
Short term support remains at SPX 1422/27 and 1413/16, with resistance at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1463/64. Short term momentum ended the day slightly above neutral. The short term OEW remain negatively biased with the swing level now at SPX 1443. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend in jeopardy
LONG TERM: bull market
Got to love them bots !
See yas in a few weeks !
Fishing?
S3 @ 1398 (ring a bell) ESZ
S2 @ 1412 (hello)
S1 @ 1421 (go figure)
Cheer up everybody !
Sorry Lee not following that one
pbnj
Got a ESZ chart handy ?
Look at Sept 5 th when we were in that triangle
At what price area did we explode out of and never look back until now ?
That’s todays S3 IMO
S2 @ 1412 todays reaction from low so far
right around the apex if u look at those things
Got it – thank you
The powers that be have a memory like an elephant and are always in well before the break downs and break outs. This recent distribution from the years high is a heck of a thing and a challenge for all traders.
BOTs have digital eyes
interesting stuff Lee. thanks
1410 is a .312 fibonacci of 1267-1474 summer lows to fall highs
1395 is next up if broken
correction: SPX daily chart
Tony -
Is it correct to say that the SPX level (if prints) today negates the minor 3 on the weekly, so we’re left with intermediate i? What might the int ii range look to be at this time? Thanks
dono
Dono,
Have the anticipated count on the DOW charts: Int. i over – Int. ii underway
SPX could drop another 2%-3% before it ends.
Tony – yes ii of course, got it. thanks.
It’s been said here 4 ‘s are shallow 2′s are deep
Most of this action will happen while u sleep.
À la prochaine
more than likely
Here’s to continued Volatility and to the Detroit Tigers !
Tony thanks for sharing ur spider sense with us and always reminding us to monitor and adjust !
+1
1402 ESZ was a target some self proclaimed guru’s were talking about last friday
1431 ESZ keeps showing up.
ltr all
a long while back I did a study on nocturnal activity
those who play regular hours are forced to either trade the day (and even that has been hard with opening gaps) and go home cash or work with wider S/R-based exit strategies
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article16364.html
Hard to keep up with you at times!Cheers man
V
LOL Cmon man I haven’t posted a coherent thought here ever
Downward 3 targets DOW SPX NASDAQ
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/10/23/elliott-wave-noon-update-video-for-10-23-12-downward-3-targets-for-the-indices-youtube/
be like water
Heres Tonys SPX support he mentioned.
Cruel world maybe next year
Hey lee, u a bear/bull SPX?
Hey V
Of all the smart guys here why are u asking a day trader ?
Don’t be like the Cards …keep errors to a minimum today
SPX/ESZ back to the CME blast off point from 1 st week of Sept
CL took out August lows CLZ and its expiration week…there will be pops
Nice job day trader !
cardinals were good, but not good enough for Giant’s pitching
Tony, what is the meaning of the red arrow on the weekly spx chart?
Tony – I know it’s early but does the price action vs. RSI qualify as a divergence?
Thank you
Cheers
yes it’s early, but possibly
One of the first signs that we were in a downtrend
I’m taking another shot at grains here with ZC. I’ll add ZW on any upside. The GKX bounced hard off the 34 weekly EMA and came off positive divergence on the daily time frame to close above the 13 EMA. Corn and wheat each found support at the 89 ema on the daily time frame, anything below that would be concerning.
Tony, you have any timeframe on how long this correction will take to play out? We are already 5 weeks from the time we made the first highs.
Election day?
Nikkei could be done with a b wave from recent u shaped bottom, c should bring it close to testing the September high and hopefully there add a larger B and complete with an even bigger ABC. Many nice divergences last year to push it…
As always i am linking ikkei to Uranium prices, Japan cant grow meaningfully without it, hen and egg problem, lol. Lets face it the island is just a big lava rock, and industry dont thrive on expensive fossil derived electricity. And coal will choke them….
The JPYUSD declining does not hurt either.
Thanks Tony
If the Cardinals lose and the Bears lose and Romney gets a “draw” on this final debate….
I promise all of you I shall never return.
BOH is favored 65/35 to win the debate.
See you tomorrow
So far totally opposite according to Yahoo poll. I would not be surprised if it carries on to other polls. Looks like we are going to have some markets meltdown if Tony’s right.
go go go Cards!…Lee stays!!…Nice avatar Lee – if I push that orange “donate” button I get a cash advance, right?…let me try ..
btw, $nymo made a higher low today (and that’s a good thing)
Wasn’t completely unexpected. From a daily candle pattern, I would expect a bit more upside here. We had a large body, high volume bearish Marubozu candle Friday, which got invalidated today (green candle). Furthermore, the long lower wick is reminiscent of a shakeout, especially the pierce into strong support and backing off supports that theory.
So far it follows my script:
http://tacticalstrategist.com/2012/10/20/the-fiscal-cliff-roll-tactical-view-2012-10-20/
I am getting nervous on the 50% retrace of the most recent drop. Should we plow through the 61.8%, the picture turns more bullish. Until now, those fib levels would be good places to get out (it also coincides with the backtest of the last short term channel line (thin red line in the picture on the link above).
Great day. Managed to snag a few things at the lows today for a short term trade.
Remember this ?
http://markethighsandlows.wordpress.com/2012/08/28/is-this-the-end-of-the-bull-market/
http://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/Americas/US-military-carrier-enters-South-China-Sea/Article1-948281.aspx
In my opinion, the US may be playing with fire.
Imperialism is a no go these days
Tech Sector
http://scharts.co/OXcXHp
NDX at trend line support
http://scharts.co/Re9rqE
Thanks, Tony.
What a wild reversal today. I feel the last hour rally got most of traders by surprise.
Time to short ? I think it was. At least for the very short term. So I shorted 75% the blue chips at the close.
Now I am 150% short. (75% tech sector + 75% blue chips).
YES, I am aware this could be a bottoming process.
http://scharts.co/QTZvnm
Have a nice evening.
GL
GL!