SHORT TERM: market stages an oversold rally, DOW +95
On sunday FED chairman Bernanke’s speech in Japan was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20121014a.htm. Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.5%. US index futures were higher overnight as well. At 8:30 the NY FED was reported still contracting: -6.2 vs -10.4, but Retail sales were higher: +1.1% vs +0.9%. The market opened two points above friday’s close to SPX 1431. Then after a further push higher to SPX 1433 the market pulled back. At 10:00 Business inventories were reported positive: +0.6% vs +0.8%. Around 10:30 the market hit SPX 1427, right at the 1422/27 support zone, and then began to rally. The rally continued until 1:00 when the SPX hit 1439, was slightly overbought, and it began to pullback again. By 3:00 the SPX hit 1434 then rallied into a 1440 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.75%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.70%. Bonds lost 1 tick, Crude slipped 20 cents, Gold lost $17, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Tomorrow: the CPI at 8:30, Industrial production at 9:15, then the NAHB index at 10:00.
The market opened a bit higher today, pulled back to support again at the SPX 1422/27 zone, then staged an oversold rally. The recent decline from SPX 1471-1426 can be counted as a five, or even a three, as there was only one significant rally before that low: 1431-1444. Today’s rally can be counted from that SPX 1426 low and advanced to 1441 today. Making it the best rally since the decline began. If this entire pullback was a C wave of Intermediate wave iv, as some have noted, the market should make new uptrend highs soon. If not, and this is just an oversold bounce in an ongoing downtrend, considering the confirmed downtrends in the NDX/NAZ, then the OEW 1440 pivot range should again offer resistance to any further upside progress.
Short term support is at SPX 1422/27 and then 1413/16, with resistance at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1463/64. Short term momentum hit overbought today, and closed there. The short term OEW charts ended the day at neutral, with the swing level now SPX 1441. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend in jeopardy
LONG TERM: bull market
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would have preferred we did not rally into the close with highs and a negative divergence. feels more like an all-in bull trap setting up than a healthy continuation
prolific day for you! hah
Hey RC
I’d always rather be fishin
This 2 day short covering event is over, the downtrend continues. IMHO
Disagree… pullback likely now – or soon – but MUCH higher coming…imho of course.
The 61.8% Fib (1455.52) of the 9/26 low & 10/5 high seems to be the last resistance. High today is 1455.51. We shall see, price will be the final arbiter.
The rise from the S&P October, 2002 Low (768.63) to the October 2007 High (1576.09)=”807.46″
The rise thus far from the 3/2009 (666.79) low to the September, 2012 High (1474.51)=”807.72″
Neither leg has any points in common other than the odds defying fact that there is a scant 0.26 difference between them. What could this mean??
SPX 5 down and ending diagonal on 5th wave
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/10/16/spx-10-day-visual-5-down-and-ending-diagonal-on-the-5th-wave/
Tony, yesterday you said that SPX 1444 was the short term key level. Now we have exceeded that level with 10 points. Isnt this beginning to look more than an oversold bounce in an ongoing downtrend?
Ko,
The NDX/NAZ confirmed downtrends, not the SPX/DOW.
The SPX cleared 1444 and the 1440 pivot right after the gap up opening today.
That’s a positive. Now if the market can hold the 1440 pivot it can go higher.
Tough call right now.
the RUT not strong today and the VIX putting in a bullish hammer so far….wouldn’t say bulls are out of the woods yet.
rut has underperformed since top optimism at top of wave 1, and never returned. if it breaks to new highs, you will see fireworks
Okay, put a stop in @ the 381.51 south end of the 382.65—->381.51 down gap.
Tony, it looks all clear to me on the long side?
Banks are not playing along
Yeah but they had already rallied and it seems money is flowing back to tech. Any levels when tech will negate the downtrend?
The Tech downtrend is in effect until they confirm a new uptrend.
Neither is the ^SOX, stopped on a dime at the long term 38.2% Fib (380.34) of the 2/2011 high & the 10/2011 low, along with the very short term 61.8% Fib (380.59) of the 10/5/2012 high and the 10/12/2012 low. High today for the ^SOX at 380.35. Got short at 378. The only thing I see on the S&P is the short term 38.2% Fib (1455.52) 9/26 low & 10/5 high.
My bottom call on the SECOND from last Friday has occured
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/10/16/elliott-wave-noon-video-update-10-16-12-if-you-dont-believe-i-can-move-the-market-heres-proof-youtube/
Hey Tony, happy Tuesday. I’m just wondering what you’re thinking here with this strong rally the last two days – able to get very overbought and also blasted right through 1440 pivot. Still 60/40 downtrend or has that improved now? Thanks, as always!
RC, All is well.
Interesting rally, nearly extremely overbought.
That sometimes happens in B waves, but usually in uptrends.
50/50 here
okay, cool. feels pretty 50/50, in my non-objective, totally subjective gut. thanks!
starting to look pretty extreme to me!
“Like I said and have always said”
Have a great day guys
Nice to see some new blood
Im ready to be a 3rd base coach here
as have mentioned,
index has been in timing band for a trading cycle low and close to timing band for an intermediate cycle low
swing low has happened nicely on cue from the short-term timing band
question is if the swing has marked the intermediate low (a bit ahead of the timing band) as well as the trading low
In hind sight everybody knows everything and the all are experts. Real-time trading is a different matter
the trade off the trading lows has been a good one and nicely in money, one could have a tight trailing stop for a portion to take some profit and reduce loss potential in case intermediate low is not in yet
How can u guys even care what the markets are doing after America’s Team lost an away game in the NLCS ?
R2 @ 1446 ESZ
And Carp got the only RBI.
Last 3 games no Cardinal starter has made it into the 5th inning.
Tony
Should we be worried ?
Lots of testosterone in the Giants bull pen ..talk about some great beards !
Nah, Cards won 2 of those three games.
When the pitching comes back …
cards won only because of abject, abysmal, abhorrent washington pitching in game 5
they will fall to above average pitching if any team can muster above average pitching throughout a series
so, a bet on cards, to me, is a bet on their opponents to flop the pitching
sure, Tony,
all it takes for that statistical norm to break is above average pitching — not glavine, or martinez — just above average
washington should have changed pitcher when they needed only one out to get the game
so, I guess, above average management might not be a bad thing to have either
Heading to St. Louis for tomorrows game 3:00 pm start CT
I’ll be the guy with the red shirt on
Piazzi,
Statistically the Giants and Cards are dead even, hitting and pitching.
The Giants have to win it in six games. Cards do not lose final games.
Just ask Philly, Milwaukee, Texas, Atlanta and Washington.
Cards have a rookie manager.
Made a mistake in Game 1 against Wash.
But otherwise doing okay.
Managers can sometimes win, but most times lose a game with the wrong move.
I really think, nationals should have changed pitcher where they needed only one out
Storen was throwing erratic stuff
it may not have made an impact but that was, imo, the move to make,
also, why didn’t they walk Kozma to get to Motte?
I don’t have a favorite ball club and am totally unbiased (aka don’t care for much more than a good game regardless of the teams involved), I just don’t think cards are good enough to overcome above average pitching throughout a series
All I know is what I see.
When it is time to win the Cards show up.
No matter who is pitching.
OOOOK!
Yanks just pulled into the hotel here in Birmingham, MI. Lots of folks lined up for autographs…
All I can say is … “Go Tigers” !
Meet you in the WS tommyboys!
That would be my dream series logistically
Going out on a limb and calling for a reversal at S&P 1453.61 & SOX 378.35
Thanks Fib !
Unfortunately, I wasn’t correct. I re-shorted the ^SOX @ 378.36, don’t think it can get past the down gap@ 382.65—->381.51. You also have very strong Fib resistance@ the 38.2% retrace (380.34) of the 2/2011 high and the 10/2011 low, the 50% Fib retrace @(383.60) 10/2011 low & 3/2012 high and the 38.2% retrace (383.49) of the 3/2012 high & the 7/2012 low.
NAZ looks like it’s about to blastoff out of a nice little bowl bottom. 3080 resistance
Check out last Friday’s perfect little Gracestone Doji on the NDX. Nothing is perfect but this one has worked well over the past couple years…
make that GRAVEstone – man I can’t type anymore!
agreed! i did see that one. a good turning point at a market low. the question is, are we low enough for that to turn…?
Selling blue chips at the open.
The tech sector may find some resistance so I will stay short for the moment http://scharts.co/Xijr4E
Covered my ^SOX shorts & got long yesterday when it surpassed the 372.49 mark. I think the target is the 50% retrace (7/17/2012 Low)-(9/14-2012 High)@378.16, which coincides perfectly with some down gap resistance @379.16—->”378.35″.
The S&P has resistance on the 60 minute, daily, and weekly 13 EMA @1442, and then the weak confluence fibs of the 10/5 high & the 10/12 low. They would be the 38.2%@(1442.88), 50%@(1448.25) & 61.8%@(1453.61) & then to the previous high @ 1470.96.
We shall see, as always price is the final arbiter.
thanks Fib
I don’t think this downtrend is over. That being said, if the S&P gets through the 1442-1456 area, that could be the extent of it. Can’t let bias or emotion dictate the trade, only price has that authority. As far as the ^SOX goes, that sucker is on a journey all it’s own.
and just like that, all is well! it’s too bad Scotty won’t be frequenting anymore – I’d like some clarification on the certain plunge we are taking this week. perhaps he meant “crash up”?
I am not sure about a market plunge but I wouldn’t mind betting we haven’t seen the bottom just yet RC. I have a turn point tomorrow and I think we may yet visit the 70 mda on the S&P. I would also suggest checking out solarcycles.net for J. Hampson’s latest piece.
Thanks Alex. I respect each person’s methods and own views, but I can’t personally get myself to buy-in to the astro-investing theme. cheers!
Everything ain’t well – and that’s the beauty of it. Markets climb that wall of worry and we’ve got a mountain! Buckle up !!
aapl & spx finding support at their old highs. spx looks like a false break down leading to higher highs. Then the next wave’s predicted trading channel out of the last 3 hourly pivots will be fugly. Even fuglier than the macd bear kiss the spx just had.
Thanks, Tony.
One question: could this count be possible for OEW ? http://scharts.co/Xgogf4
M1: Swell from North ??? All we get is swell from the south here in Chicama at least in winter season, have to look at magic seaweed for that if you insist. PS: If Tony wants a surf photo from Chicama for posting or whatever I will send one. The one on this site has to be from Nothern California, thats my best guess.
By the way Nikkei seems to be boosting nicely, such a long downturn has to retrace back at least some, and if its another higher low… then we are in for a good ride..
Small cap index was just a hair straw from touching all time high recently, duck dived and is starting over again. I am preferentially being burned in small caps and the lack of optimism is just striking if not overwhelming, and reflected in the fatigue of this index for the last years. Whenever a real top is to be made, and not a robo top with a truncated five as we saw on top of wave one, then small caps should crown optimism before a decline. Fed with their continous infusion doesnt seem to want to make any more ragged waves and declines as in waves one and 2. So respirator could be pumping that breath of life constantly without all these big declines, and isnt that what the smooth part wave 3 is all about ?
And Tony if you have the time for it: The spot uranium seems to be ending a reversed fifth wave. From the top years ago it declined badly, had an ABC up to 72/puond and declined in a large reversed 5 way structure down (as I see it). We should now be in the wave 1 part, steeply making a bottom. What I am thinking; should it not AT LEAST retrace the last downturn in an ABC up ?
Fundamentals in Uranium is better as Russia will terminate selling bomb uranium, and India is craving material, japan hoards in silence as its unpopular and UA is not self sufficient. Furthermore big players like Camceo has already long term contracts for most of their current capacity. Another restrain is Australia which have trouble mining du to environmenal issues.
CCJ stills looks to be in the doldrums
Sorry abt the waves in Chicama. Cabo blanco is already braking. 5-6 feet.
(you won’t see this swell in magic seaweed).
5 up, 5 up, 5 up … quite odd for a diagonal
Perfect !!…
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the-sp-500-targeting-1300-or-1500-2012-10-15
…..maybe Avi reads our blog.
Seems like my Nikkei prediction holds as it goes, funny the Guggenheim solar index has the same pattern lately as Nikkie follows. As goes Japan as go solar, maybe ???
Torehund, there is a swell coming from the north…nothing special, but you may get some waves in chicama tomorrow.
Hi Tony. A new STORMM buy signal was generated today for the SP500 and now awaits full confirmation this week. This is the second buy signal since the Sept. 28th one and this pattern of STORMM signals typically occurs at the limits and end of ABC corrections . The A leg down typically generates the first oversold buy signal followed by the C leg (or ending retraction) generating a similiar oversold STORMM signal. If this buys signal holds confirmation this week we can then assume the correction of the last few weeks is over and we’ll be challenging the 1500 level.
Charts and discussion at: http://hgpolites3.wordpress.com/
thanks Greg
Thanks Greg, well we are pretty bullish most of us and thats a contrarian sign, however the folks that has found Tonys site the best out there, after having tried a lot, then MAYBE there is some going to the acclamations. Lets see and thanks Greg.
PS what happened to earnings season not in focus as WS is in tank
ing modus ?
The market tends to go up on the 15th when the brokers take their margin cut……just an observation. (sounds like sour grapes!)
Thanks Tony.
Not too many grapes Fiona
ESZ 1416.50 Globex low = SPX 1422 ish
The bots didn’t care that it was Sunday evening and there was a great baseball game on.
Their loss !
Bots have a strong work ethic
Hey TS ! They sure do …
Estimate $6,500 – $8,500 for this hunk of tin
IRSI from 90 to 50 on the weekly and not that many SPX point lost, compared to the previous large correction. Isnt that bullish… And on the small pop today RSI didnt move a lot upwards.
If the men in power wants Obama to win they will reboot the Bots into a rising market. Obama is a puppet good speaker and with threads hanging from above firmly attached to his 4 extremities. Cant be better than that, oops if they dont find an articulate jellyfish !