SHORT TERM: pullback/correction continues, DOW +2
Overnight the Asian markets were relatively flat. Europe opened lower and lost 0.7%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 the PPI was reported positive: +1.1% vs +1.7%. The market opened unchanged from yesterday’s SPX 1433 close. In the first hour of trading it dipped negative, then rallied to SPX 1438. At 10:00 Consumer sentiment was reported higher: 83.1 vs 78.3. Then the market started to pullback. Around noon the SPX hit 1426, right in the 1422/27 support range, and then tried to rally. At 3:00 the Gov’t reported a Budget surplus: +$75 bln vs -$62.8 bln, which was expected. Right around this time the SPX hit 1431 and pulled back into a 1429 close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude slid 30 cents, Gold dropped $13, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported higher: 55.7% vs 54.7%.
The market opened flat today for the third time this week. Then after a rally attempt it headed lower, making a new low for this pullback at SPX 1426. This market has now declined 45 points from last friday’s SPX 1471 high. This is the biggest pullback since the mid-July 51 point pullback (SPX 1380-1329). The largest pullback of the entire uptrend is 54 points. Unless we see a turnaround soon in this market, we’ll likely get a downtrend confirmation - ending the uptrend from early June. Probabilities favor a downtrend 60%/40%. More in the weekend update.
Short term support remains at SPX 1422/27 and SPX 1413/16, with resistance at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1463/64. Short term momentum hit oversold today and then bounced slightly. The short term OEW charts remain negatively biased with the swing level now around SPX 1442. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend in jeopardy
LONG TERM: bull market
Thanks Tony
I think the viking death march of this bull market continues. Next wave’s (based on hourly pivots) predicted trading channel will be bullish.
If one looks at sectors like solar energy, Dry bulk and many small caps, pessimism is still pervasive and not characteristic of a pedal to the metal market. I am a Norwegian descendent of the vikings, maybe somewhat diluted through generations lol, but if we dont have to “walk the plank” a good bull run is ahead. I am thinking 1600 to 1700 on the Sp 500 until a descent pullback…
Hi Tore,
Just a glance at the plank will remind us of what’s ahead eventually.
This week’s market action looks all technical.
Thanks Rob
I am hereby advocating the bullish case:
1) On the last declines, RSI has declined much more than the indexes relatively speaking. This tell me of strength, and anxiety in the markets. Which is beneficial…
2) Ord from decision point is usually spot on on macro, his tick/vix is pretty telling of a turn, or at least has been…
3) Upcoming election and fundamentals like declining flames, Consumer confidence up e.t.c.
4) The 3 rd wave on your counting which is just nearly beginning is usually the longest wave and the one with the least volatility, it has just begun and I dont see it correcting a whole lot this soon, and market is far far from being exuberant. I see the beginning of your 3 rd as an end to a reversed 5 th wave in which we now just see the small beginning of the 3 rd and the big pyramid from last year representing the fourth and the fifth ending where you have marked wave 2 at spx 1060 or something. Measuring this pretty large dimensions of 4 th and 5 th, I see a large 3 rd comming that will last for a long time. I agree on your counting and it somewhat makes the same result even counting reversed, just that I think the end of your 3rd will look like a first wave. Also reversed waves is more common when market is pessimistic as it is now.
5) Many stocks and sectors are heavily oversold with RSI in the low 20, its difficult not to see a pop here.
Additionally, the Utlimate Oscillator is at 31.95 while testing the 50 day. When that oscillator gets this oversold at a moving average like the 50 day the likelihood is we have a percent or so more to the downside which either marks a bottom or a bounce with a slightly lower low and a bullish divergence. The bottom is VERY close.
808 Definition / 808 Means
The definition of 808 is “Police code for disturbing the peace”
and
ATOMIC NUMBER 102
The noun ATOMIC NUMBER 102 has 1 sense:
1. a radioactive transuranic element synthesized by bombarding curium with carbon ions; 7 isotopes are known
Familiarity information: ATOMIC NUMBER 102 used as a noun is very rare.
Tony, do you have any downside targets for AAPL? Thanks
Just under $600
stat of the day: $SPX 2009-12 low to high (666 to 1474) equals 808 points. the 2002-07 low to high (768 to 1576) also equals 808 pts. whoa! mind blown.
Nice one Delta … bots at work
yea wild stuff but here’s another one i just noticed.
$SPX also has 102 points between its bull market highs (1576-1474) and 102 points between the respective lows between years 2002-2009 (768-666)
probably means nothing but just looking over some 10 year charts on a friday pm and had to share!
Really nice number !!. I didn’t notice it.
Two gems in one afternoon.
Nice work!
http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_Oct_6_2012.htm
….maybe some more interesting numbers. (from last weekend).
Thanks Tony.
thx Fiona
Thanks Tony, no surprise to hit your original spx numbers for int.iv, waiting for the monday move.
Gary,
One would almost think the Bots are reading this blog
Thanks Tony! have a great weekend all!
+1, +1
http://screencast.com/t/vWJD2uxrdRW0
Dr Nymo is in
…talking about McClellan…..
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/40-year_cycle_in_djia/
Thanks Tony.