SHORT TERM: pullback or correction, DOW -129
Overnight the Asian markets declined 1.0%. European markets opened lower and closed -0.5%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight and opened unchanged at SPX 1441. After a tick up to SPX 1442 the market pulled back to 1437 by 10:00. At 10:00 Wholesale inventories were reported positive: +0.5% vs +0.7%. The market then tried to rally but could only gain 6 points, to SPX 1443, by 10:30. Another pullback followed, breaking through the OEW 1440 pivot range, and hitting SPX 1431 by 1:00. Another rally attempt followed. At 2:00 the FED released its Beige book: http://federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook/beigebook201210.htm. Right after the report the SPX hit 1435, retested 1431 by 3:30, then bounced to 1433 at the close.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.80%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.45%. Bonds gained 7 ticks, Crude slid $1.00, Gold slipped $1, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops to the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance now at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. After the close there is a speech from FED governor Tarullo. Overnight there is also a speech from FED vice chair Yellen in Japan. Tomorrow, weekly Jobless claims, Export/Import prices and the Trade deficit all at 8:30. Then another speech at 10:00 from FED governor Stein.
The market opened flat today, at yesterday’s low tick close, then continued lower. By 1:00 the SPX had broken below the OEW 1440 pivot range and hit 1431, the Intermediate wave iv low. This three day decline has now retraced the entire rally from SPX 1431 to 1471. During the decline the biggest rally has only been six points. That happened early today between SPX 1437 and 1443, as the market tried to hold the 1440 pivot.
Some could consider this last decline completing a flat from the Intermediate wave iii high at SPX 1475: 1431-1471-1431. The problem with this count is the Tech sector, NDX/NAZ, is downtrending. It would be quite unusual for the cyclicals to continue higher without some support of the tech/growth sector. When we review the bellwether DOW charts we observe a recent new high: 13,662 vs 13,653. This suggests this last rally could have completed a weak Intermediate wave v on friday, ending the uptrend from the early June low. This morning we posted some tentative green labels, on the SPX/DOW, suggesting the four month uptrend has ended. Should this be correct, this was quite a weak uptrend ending following the FED’s QE 3 announcement just a few weeks ago.
Short term support is now at SPX 1422/27 and SPX 1413/16, with resistance at the 1440 pivot and SPX 1463/64. Short term momentum displays a positive divergence. The short term OEW charts remain in the negative mode with the swing level now at SPX 1448. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend in jeopardy
LONG TERM: bull market
The market goes up only until it stops going up. EW is valuable but magic ball is priceless.
support/resistance
accumulation/distribution
peanut butter/chocolate
St.Louis Cardinals/ Detroit Tigers
haa..all good things come in twos..
)
Ah, my grandson is an Oriole fan.
Giants are winning game five, a good thing for the Cards.
C B
Loving wife/TC get’s well
Tony
I would gladly be wrong to see the Orioles in the WS !
ES about 1429-1430 looks good for now.
Right around the floor Pivot Point
Oil and stocks get crushed next week
Good Bye
$80 CL next week Scotty ?
Hello
I say “High”, you say “Low”.
You say “Why?” And I say “I don’t know”.
Oh no.
You say “Goodbye” and I say “Hello, hello, hello”.
That’s it RC
Im outta here also !
See yas tomorrow
NASDAQ ABC Zigzag into a bottom?
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/10/11/nasdaq-30-day-1-minute-chart-abc-zigzag-into-a-bottom/
Since I’m not coming back here again…..I’ll say what everyone is thinking.
Anyone who says he is a genius….surely isn’t……..grow up.
What if I just say I’m really really super smart?
and really good looking
Shoot the Magnum R C !
hahaha you got it Lee! wasn’t sure if anybody here was qualified to receive… blue steel
Tony, how much probability that spx/dow too will confirm a downtrend? Is 1422 the level to watch? Thanks
Right now it looks like 55%/45% in favor of a downtrend.
Yes, 1422 is still an important level.
http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2012/10/10/wednesday-update-359/#comments
ES looks like it’s running into a little congestion here 1437-1440
well look at you ! U hack day trader !
What is this chart suggesting ?
http://scharts.co/QTZvnm
Who wants to talk 10 yr treasury note futures ?
grains ?
grains? i’ve been eating more whole wheat and adding ground flax seeds to my cereal in the morning…
as for the 10yr, i’m actually surprised it hasn’t sold off more today. 1.75 is the line in the sand IMO.
Well congrats on adding whole wheat into ur diet and flax seeds will keep u honest during the day
I hear ya on the 10 yr.. Im still trying to get a feel ..last few days have been decent
ZC is looking great here. The question is will this gap up on the crop report get some follow through or be washed out like the one a couple of weeks ago. I entered a starter position again this morning and will see what happens.
Thanks MM
Cmon that was a bull flag in ZC ..it just needed some time
GL !
Morn. all…
…Bonds?..still a short, generally speaking??..or any new twists on that, Lee? Thanks. Also, a very nice call last week when you strongly hinted “it’s a B wave, right?” –that was an amazingly good call, Lee. NICE!!
Lee, u trade so many different markets that it’s not easy to keep up with you.
So, on bonds, what’s the story morning glory? You have our full attention
Hey C B
G Morn ! Hope all has settled down a bit and TC is feeling better.
Well I decided why trade one market well when u can trade a bunch mediocre
ZN is a beast ! And yes I believe it is but u need deep pockets if ur trading the futures.
ES/SPX That’s easy just go with what would screw the most people at all times.24/6
I even vaguely and cryptically called the gap over the 1440 pivot last evening.LOL
nice Lee, ur bordering on “Dr. Clairvoyant on the markets” – so ur good for us
Well, they found a 90% blockage in TC, so his heart could be the root cause… sort of good news as that can be managed somehow..I just hope he can sit on a couch for a couple of hours, watch a game & enjoy the amenities without trying to get all the extra attention 
cus I am not good at catching 230lbs suddenly falling to the ground..but like our neighbor said: God only gives me as much as I can handle (which is a lot 
. For now I’m trying 2 understand why he was giggling like a teenager at some things yesterday..I just hope it was his left-over anesthesia..and not a new personality… the good thing is I like surprises 
, so I am just gna expect the unexpected from now on.
Talking about roots..money is the root of all problems, and a man needs roots…so I am watching 1428 – a line in the sand for me on closing basis.. gona pick t cald up today (yeah a funny coincidence that we have 4 letters in common with Tony)…so I’m gna be mostly an avid reader here the next couple of days. Thanks guys..
CB,
They can open blockages these days so all shouls be okay.
good luck!
thanks Tony. yeah, those stents containing medication are supposed to be good.
Hey C B
Wow
Well at least they found the blockage !
I’m taking this as great news !
Hey CB, sorry to hear about the blockage, hope all turns out well. I just had a triple bypass in April but I hope a stent is all TC needs. The medication and all the side effects are what you have to watch out for. Good luck.
Lee, thanks! I just don’t know – too many things are happening at the same time and I don’t even understand what causes what. Need to learn more. All I know right now is: it’s after 4pm and we finally have all the meds, TC is fed and asleep and I am going to sleep too…zzzz
)
Kjbo, thanks and I certainly hope that ur health is improving as well. Honestly I am not even sure what a 3-bypass is but I sense ur telling me things can get worse. TC will be 61 in Dec., had a 99% blockage in RCA and we had to run to get Plavix real quick 2day cuz they had told him that a stent itself could cause a blockage…Poor guy – 5 seizures in one day & at the end of the day they told us that the blood test showed he had also had a heart attack.. And he keeps telling me he can’t live without being able to drive..so now I’m gonna be a psychiatrist too…talk to you soon guys..
God Bless CB,
You certainly have your hands full.
Thanks Tony!
Good morning, it looks the market is trying to rebound
Now, the hard work. (What was all this mess ?)
Tony, how many waves do we have from 13662 ? (DOW)
same answer, three on one scale and one on another
Thanks. looks like something ended yesterday ?
Yes first good rally since 1471
Bots ?
Let’s see if the Nasdaq Comp/100 can get over the lows of 9/26/12 (3081, $67.25) before we get too excited.
Tony, so if 1471 was the end of intermediate i of major 3, then the fifth wave of intermediate i truncated or failed on the spx — but not the DOW — yes? What are the most logical spx highs and lows for the other minor waves within spx intermediate i? That wave structure for intermediate i swamps my nascent knowledge of OEW. tim
Hi Tim,
1363, 1309, 1475, 1431, and 1471.
Thanks very much. So everything just slides back one degree under that scenario with a failed fifth. And that count is technically valid until the spx drops below 1363, yes? Not an expected scenario, but within the rules.
Hi Tim,
Correct, but the SPX would have to drop below 1267 to invalidate that count.
Thanks, Tony.
IMO, The tech sector is still at a strong support.
If it has to rebound, it must be here. Otherwise, the market likes taking important supports with a large gap down.
GL
Thanks Tony
And thanks a lot for an excellent blog! Have been visiting you daily for years!
But right now i’m really confused. Can you please clarify where we right now most probably are standing?
Is this most probably major 3 or major 4? Still major 3 if 1422 holds? If this is the beginning of major 4, whats your target?
Hi Ko,
Currently the SPX/DOW are still on track in an uptrending Major 3, but the NDX/NAZ is downtrending.
Should the SPX/DOW follow and overlap Major 1 during the decline then this would not be the Major 3 uptrend.
It’s a difficult juncture to explain in a short response.
There are too many variables.
Thanks Tony
So if i’m right; under no circumstances major 3 has ended at 1475? And correction below 1422 will be major 2? Or..?
If Major 3 ended at 1471/75 Major 4 would have to be quite small to avoid an overlap
with the recent action of the markets and the dollar moving in opposite fashion, I see the usd possible ending its retracement at or around 80.55/ 80.77 and then continuing its down trend and through the possible neckline of 78.7, If this plays out, watch for the up trend of the markets and the spx major 3 to continue. IMHO
The fifth wave could have truncated at 80.3 for a double top, if no new high above 80.3
S&P, short term channel, weekly support curves
http://markettime.blogspot.ca/2012/10/s-500-october-10-2012.html
Until 1430 is taken out you can’t rule out a triangle for wave 4
How about we gap over the 1440 pivot tomorrow and The Cards just keep doing what they’re doing.
Holy Cow! Wait a minute…wrong team. Been a Card fan since…forever!
My Mom and Dad live in (rural) Marion Il…just across the river and up the road from you (57 miles) Big time Cardinal fans in that area…spoiled rotten lately
This trading stuff is easy…
Go Cards !
So far they own the Nats bull pen
It’s amazing so far…
Not bad for a team that was supposed to finish 4 th
Dropped the popular $69.95 3 Ebook package to $4.95 boom badoom
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/10/10/for-a-very-limited-test-period-all-3-ebooks-ala-the-69-95-big-book-for-only-4-95-holy-shit-wavegenius-com/
Upward 4′s after downward 3′s tomorrow?
http://www.wavegenius.com/2012/10/10/elliott-wave-forecast-video-for-10-11-12-upward-4s-after-downward-3s-youtube/
Truncation to end Major 1 in May, truncation to end Major 3 in October. Quite a nice impulse Primary wave 3 uptrend you have there
I don’t think Tony has ended Major 3 just yet. He has labeled i/3 in green, which is a tentative labeling.
As for the truncation, Tony follows the Dow (has said this many times), not the S&P. There is no truncation in the Dow in May, or now in October.
Earlier today, you were worried about fitting in the rest of Major 3, all of Major 4, and all of Major 5 by mid/late 2013. If you look at the last Bull Market starting in October of 2002, Major 1 and Major 2 were completed in just a whisker over 5 months (Oct. 2002- March 2003). One year seems plenty to finish this Bull.
Good luck Erka. A wise man from my home state once said, “Float like a butterfly, sting like a bee.”
Good ole Kentucky !
Hey cruda Lee. 5 words for tomorrow. Go long, or go home.*
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Your mileage may vary.
I understand it’s a tentative labeling. My comment obviously pertained to the case where Major 3 would be confirmed.
I understand that Tony considers the DOW to be the most representative index. It doesn’t change the fact that the truncations would remain in the SPX, making the bullish count extremely weak if not altogether wrong.
As far as your last comment is concerned, unfortunately you haven’t properly read my posts which links I include below:
http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2012/10/01/monday-update-328/#comment-90695
http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2012/10/09/tuesday-update-357/#comment-91154
As you notice my question is not how you fit Major 3, 4 and 5 but how you fit Major 3,4,5 AND Primary IV AND Primary V until mid to late 2013.
I think it is a valid comment that should make you at least question the validity of the count.
Hey Erka
Do you like apples ?
“sure.”
“well, i got her numbah. how about them apples?!”
Also that means Dow is starting major 4 where as others are still major 2 based on what you said yesterday. It’s getting confusing now
The SPX/DOW have the same count
Tony, when you say that ” This suggests this last rally could have completed a weak Intermediate wave v on friday, ending the uptrend from the early June low.”
Then it means Dow may be starting major 4?
It would be Major 4 if a correction holds above Major 1
But yesterday you said – “Actually it appears too low of a high to end a Major wave 3.
Might be a lower degree. Like Int. one of Major 3. But a downtrend would have to be confirmed first.”
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p00364729972&a=67199587&listNum=11